dagies Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 Thought I'd do a little comparison of these 2 teams down the stretch FWIW. Hak kind of covered it during his Fargo Booster talk. Duluth knows they need to win this weekend, and probably win the Final Five to have a shot at the NCAA's. So they will likely be desperate. While those chances are very very slim, the Bulldogs still probably want to feel very good about their finish, which would mean a run in "the 5" and knocking off some teams, maybe even ending their season(s). First, they can finish the Sioux. Revenge for having the Sioux rip away the McNaughton cup at the DECC. Eliminate the Sioux from this year's 5 and maybe end their season. Go to the 5, and maybe knock Bucky out of the tourney, and maybe someone else. A good way to end what has been a very frustrating season for the 'Dogs. Sioux, on the other hand, know they need wins to make the NCAA's. Losing this weekend may end the whole thing. Too much uncertainty to accept losing in the first round. So the Sioux will not be looking past Duluth. So how have these teams been doing down the stretch? I've compiled some numbers from each team's last 3 WCHA series. We can see how they compare, and see if there is any meaning to be had from them. I could have chosen to pick and choose some of the last few series in order to compare performance against more common opponents, but that required a bit more picking and choosing than just selecting the last 3 conference opponents. I was looking for recent performance trends in-conference, so that settled it. Duluth's last 3 series: Tech, Denver, Wisconsin Sioux last 3 series: AA, Wisconsin, SCSU Let's start in: GOAL Reichmuth - last 6 games - .904 saves %. (150 of 166 shots) Range from .807 to .947 Parise - last 5 games - .939 saves %. (123 of 131 shots) Range from .833 to .963. (Parise has been named WCHA defensive player of the week the last 2 series. 1 shutout) TEAM SCORING Bulldogs = 209 shots for (average 30-35 per game) Sioux = 185 shots for (average 28-31 per game) Bulldogs = 20 goals for = 3.33 goals/game (10.45 shots/goal scored) Sioux = 17 goals for = 2.83 goals/game (10.88 shots/goal scored) Bulldogs = 20 goals 30 assists for 50 total points Sioux = 17 goals 28 assists for 45 total points TEAM DEFENSE Bulldogs = 172 shots against (average 28.7 per game) Sioux = 161 shots against (average 26.8 per game) Bulldogs = 19 goals against = 3.16 goals/game (9.05 shots/goal allowed) Sioux = 13 goals against = 2.16 goals/game (12.38 shots/goal allowed) POWER PLAY Bulldogs = 20% (6 for 30) Sioux = 17% (5 for 29) PENALTY KILL Bulldogs = 62% (18 of 29 killed) Sioux = 96% (27 of 28 killed) WHO'S HOT? Stapleton = 5-3-8 Hammond = 2-4-6 Peluso = 5-1-6 Schwabe = 1-4-5 Fuher = 1-5-6 Zajac = 2-3-5 WHO'S NOT? Caig = 0-1-1 Brosz = 0-1-1 McMahon = 1-1-2 (no points last 5 games) NOTES The Sioux average about the same number of shots per game as Duluth gives up. So I say the Sioux will get at least 2 if not 3 goals per game. (28 shots x .904 saves% = 25.3 saves = 2.7 goals scored by the Sioux) Bulldogs will need to put up 35 or more if Parise is on his game to win. (Using conservative numbers of shots and a conservative saves % below his recent average = 35 shots x .91 saves% = 31.85 saves = 3.15 goals scored by Duluth). Remember that Parise is on a .955 saves% over his last 4 games..... Hakstol talked about the Massen-Canady-Fabian line being one of the best lines for the Sioux recently. In the last 4 games they have combined for a 2-4-6 line which doubled their combined point production for the whole year. Bina has contributed 4 assists on his own in the last 6 games. KEYS FOR THE BULLDOGS Move the puck, and throw rubber at the net. Clean up rebounds. Don't give up odd man chances. Answer Sioux goals quickly to keep the crowd out of the game KEYS FOR THE SIOUX Parise must continue his hot play Offense must put up 30+ shots and create good chances (MCF line and Bina must continue effective play) Maintain strong penalty killing Sioux win in 3, every game 1 goal differential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beersong Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 Nice penalty kill Bulldogs. There's your key to this series. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMDDogz Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 Why are tDogs purple?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yepdude Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 Why are tDogs purple?? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Purple panzies (clap, clap, clapclapclap) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMDDogz Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagies Posted March 9, 2005 Author Share Posted March 9, 2005 Why are tDogs purple?? maroon isn't a color choice. sorry. take it up with the admin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoggy Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 maroon isn't a color choice. sorry. take it up with the admin. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> HA ha! The site doesn't love you Dogs' fans. Neener neener neener. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigmrg74 Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 Boys, play nice now.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petey23 Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 Uhmmmm. I was told there would be no math? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jk Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 I don't know if I have seen a neutral party pick the Sioux in this series. Every WCHA fan on USCHO seems to favor UMD, and I see that Woog just picked them as well. The rationale seems to be: the juggernaut has finally woken up, and behind their strong goaltending, UMD should be able to take a scrappy UND team down. I will admit to being able to see their point, and I'm apprehensive about the series. However, I have a hard time seeing that UMD has suddenly turned the corner, based on a few decent weekends of play. (The same could be said of UND.) It's also not certain that Duluth will receive goaltending any better than UND, and dagies' data suggests otherwise. I guess that if I were a neutral observer, I might expect, in a series with two essentially equal teams, the home team to win. One other fact I haven't seen mentioned is the teams' only meeting this year, when UND dominated UMD on Friday in Duluth, then lost a very tight game on a last second goal on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sprig Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 maroon isn't a color choice. sorry. take it up with the admin. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> You could have made them yellow Tough series, MDU likely needs to win the Broadmor to make the tourney, while several comparisons could tip against the Sioux if they lose 2 this weekend, possibly leaving them out of the NCAA's. I like the current 3-2-1 bracketology, which would send the Sioux to Michigan with Denver, Dartmouth, and Bemidji St. Beat Dartmouth and probably get the chance for revenge vs. Denver. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxnami Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 You could have made them yellow Tough series, MDU likely needs to win the Broadmor to make the tourney, while several comparisons could tip against the Sioux if they lose 2 this weekend, possibly leaving them out of the NCAA's. I like the current 3-2-1 bracketology, which would send the Sioux to Michigan with Denver, Dartmouth, and Bemidji St. Beat Dartmouth and probably get the chance for revenge vs. Denver. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Yes, and then no one could read it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 POWER PLAY Bulldogs = 20% (6 for 30) Sioux = 17% (5 for 29) PENALTY KILL Bulldogs = 62% (18 of 29 killed) Sioux = 96% (27 of 28 killed) UND power play has been pretty solid the second half of the season. UND has killed like 24 or 25 Power Plays in a row. I think UMD is going to want to stay out of the box. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggler Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 I don't see why they couldn't be maroon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Let'sGoHawks! Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 If the Sioux can put up 2-3 goals a game and JPar keeps playing solid, the Sioux are a scary team, in my humble opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yzerman19 Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 Brady Murray is going to blow up this weekend. Hat trick on Friday. Zajac will score 4 pp goals in the series. Prpich will score 2. GWG Friday: Murray GWG Sat: Caig GWG Sun: Mcmahon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagies Posted March 9, 2005 Author Share Posted March 9, 2005 I think it will be very very very helpful to the Sioux's chances if they win on Friday night. If Duluth has to look at winning both Saturday and Sunday the mountain might begin to look just a little too steep. Maybe not. But maybe just enough doubt will creep in to keep them from playing their very best the rest of the way. If Duluth wins on Friday, they will smell blood. All they need is 1 of the following 2 games. They'll have the desperation and the confidence to hammer the door shut on the Sioux. While I won't say Friday night makes the weekend for either team, I think it is darn near critical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagies Posted March 9, 2005 Author Share Posted March 9, 2005 Why are tDogs purple?? I don't see why they couldn't be maroon Thanks, Diggy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxrunner Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 Parise has been great lately, and although I still think Phil is the best goaltender on the team, there's nothing like having a hot goalie going into the playoffs. Jordan will be the key for the Sioux this weekend...and through the Final Five, if he can stay hot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yzerman19 Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 I agree that a hot goalie in the playoffs is a dream come true for any team. The Sioux need a scorer to get a hot hand too and we could actually make a push at another title. We have some seriously talented offensive players in Murray, Zajac and Stafford. One of them needs to get hot. My vote is Murray. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fedorov Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 I agree that a hot goalie in the playoffs is a dream come true for any team. The Sioux need a scorer to get a hot hand too and we could actually make a push at another title. We have some seriously talented offensive players in Murray, Zajac and Stafford. One of them needs to get hot. My vote is Murray. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> It would be nice if we had more than one person that could score. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiouxTupa Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 Brady Murray is going to blow up this weekend. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Hopefully not, he's had enough injury trouble this year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yzerman19 Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 I guess blow up is a bad choice in phrasing. I'd really like the guys to break out of their collective scoring slump this weekend. We dearly miss having a player who can create during any shift from anywhere on the ice...11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fedorov Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 I guess blow up is a bad choice in phrasing. I'd really like the guys to break out of their collective scoring slump this weekend. We dearly miss having a player who can create during any shift from anywhere on the ice...11 <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Bring back the Money Line Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiouxTupa Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 They've only shown glimpses this year. However, one of those glimpses was against Duluth. I think they can light the lamp a few times, especially with a home crowd behind them. We'll see. I hope Brady and Colby are ready! They are KEY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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