MafiaMan Posted March 1, 2004 Share Posted March 1, 2004 I know Doug Woog's opinion on the matter since he's not concerned at all about it, but I'm wondering if anyone else is thinking the defending-NCAA champ Gophers might not make the sweet sixteen? Let's imagine a split this coming weekend against SCSU and a first-round one-and-done in the WCHA Final Five playoffs. Could they "husky" their way into the NCAA's the way St Cloud managed to last season? Both Denver and Colorado College are playing well as of late... One thing I will say is that the WCHA has to be fairly happy about Minnesota playing in a 4/5 Thursday night game. Think about it...the potential for a three-game run with 16,000-18,000 fans in Xcel Energy Center? A few years ago (I believe it was 94 or 95) at the old St Paul Civic Center, they had a sellout for a Sioux/Gopher 4/5 game. Unexpected for sure, but it did add some extra $$$ to the WCHA as opposed to a CC/Mankato or Denver/UMD Thursday night game. Not trying to rile up the Gopher fans hanging around here, just curious as to opinions as to their tournament hopes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxnami Posted March 1, 2004 Share Posted March 1, 2004 Hockey is not like basketball where voters make the field of teams subjective. Statistical formulas essentially set the field. The Gophers will be in the tournment as they have earned that right. The recent struggles against VERY good teams may help Minnesota in early rounds of the NCAAs if they get sent out east. Minnesota may be the fifth best team in the WCHA but the sixth best in the nation right now. I definately want to see Minnesota in the WCHA final five as it makes the atmosphere that much better. I'm sure that the WCHA won't mind the extra ticket sales for Minnesota games. Nothing makes the final five more enjoyable than thumping the home team... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted March 1, 2004 Share Posted March 1, 2004 When determining whether they'll make the playoffs in a worst-case scenario (i.e. not winning the conference tournament), the only thing to look at is PWR. Using the above-linked numbers, Minnesota is currently #6. How many teams get in on the basis of PWR alone depend how many of the automatic qualifiers would NOT have gotten in on the basis of PWR, but it seems a pretty safe bet that #12 in PWR should make the tournament. About as bad as it could get for the Gophers would be swept by SCSU/swept in WCHA play-in by Denver. That would still only drop their win% to .5375; SCSU and Denver both have win% around .54, so wouldn't hurt UMN's opp% of .56 much. Minnesota's RPI would drop to around .54. That would flip the comparison with UW, UNH, and possibly U-Mass and Miami, depending on their relative success. Minnesota doesn't really win any close matchups on the basis of TUC or COP. Even dropping from winning 18 comparisons to 14 or so, UMN would likely still be around #10. Of course, weird dramatic shifts can occur when bubble TUC teams drop in/out of consideration, but of those on the cusp only Bemidji St jumps out at me as a Gopher opponent, and their inclusion would help MN's TUC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MafiaMan Posted March 1, 2004 Author Share Posted March 1, 2004 No offense, but the Pairwise Rankings Index is the BCS of college hockey! What a joke. #6 in the WCHA but #6 in the PRI? That's as ridiculous as St Cloud going to the NCAA's over UMD last year. There should be a reward for who's turned it up a notch at the end of the season and a "thanks but no thanks" to teams who stagger into the conference playoffs and bow out with a one-and-done series (at home no less...I'm talking about YOU, St Cloud!). Put human error back into the mix! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoggy Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 If Michigan State loses, they'll drop out of being a TUC. That would affect Minny and Wisco. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceberg Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 No offense, but the Pairwise Rankings Index is the BCS of college hockey! What a joke. #6 in the WCHA but #6 in the PRI? That's as ridiculous as St Cloud going to the NCAA's over UMD last year. There should be a reward for who's turned it up a notch at the end of the season and a "thanks but no thanks" to teams who stagger into the conference playoffs and bow out with a one-and-done series (at home no less...I'm talking about YOU, St Cloud!). Put human error back into the mix! uh, Mafia SCSU played in Duluth last year...I was there....and it was at the DECC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MafiaMan Posted March 2, 2004 Author Share Posted March 2, 2004 Thanks for the correction...even MORE of a joke knowing that UMD didn't get in over St Cloud last season. What are the tie-breakers for PRI? Best jersey color? Cutest cheerleaders? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinnesotaNorthStar Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Thanks for the correction...even MORE of a joke knowing that UMD didn't get in over St Cloud last season. What are the tie-breakers for PRI? Best jersey color? Cutest cheerleaders? Duluth was around 18 or so in the PWR last year at the end of the season. Their early season struggles against non-conference opponents is what cost them an NCAA bid. St. Cloud did just well enough at the begining to make the tourney. And the Selection Committe does not use the PWR to make the field. They do use a similar method. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMDDogz Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Duluth was around 18 or so in the PWR last year at the end of the season. Their early season struggles against non-conference opponents is what cost them an NCAA bid. Our early-season losses against Bemidji State (split, won second game 12-0), Notre Dame (0-1-1), and RPI (split), along with a late-season loss to Tech at home, outweighed our late-season defeats of North Dakota (2-0-1 last year), Minnesota (split), and St. Cloud (4-3 last year). There will never be a perfect formula. At least now it's consistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMDDogz Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 I'd love to see the ...Gophers ... get to the Frozen Four, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Thus perpetuating Gopher cockiness?? Please! I would much rather see the Sioux and UMD than the Gophs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sicatoka Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 What are the tie-breakers for PRI? The RPI is a purely analytic tool that gives a rating that is based solely on: - your winning percentage - your opponent's winning percentage - your opponent's opponents' winning percentage The PWR is another purely analytic tool that compares each team to every other team (individually) based on: - comparison of RPIs - head to head record - records against common opponents - records against "teams under consideration" (meaning with RPIs over 0.500) Poke around some of the information that is available here and you can learn more. Is it a perfect system? None is. Is it better than the rest out there? I'd argue yes. PS - I watch the KRACH rating system most because I believe it does the best job accounting for unbalanced schedules (better than RPI). Some argue (and I believe rightly so) that KRACH ratings should replace the RPI in the PWR overall calculations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WPoS Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 all you nancy boys can quit whinning, the Gophs will be there (my arrogance of being a Gopher fan). Geeze this board is talking about Gopher hockey more than POI! A Sicatoka said, nothing is perfect, but this is a ton better than what there used to be. Will they continue to improve ranking systems and such? Yes. Will they have to give the WCHA teams a "odd league in" negative score so other leagues will be represented....YES! WPoS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Commodore Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Thus perpetuating Gopher cockiness?? Please! I would much rather see the Sioux and UMD than the Gophs. My dream for this year is to see 4 WCHA teams in the frozen four in Boston. The NCAA will never allow for that possibility and is more likely to group 3 WCHA teams in one regional along with Bemidji State before they'd send one to the Northeastern division. But how great would it be to have UND, UM, UMD, and UW in the Frozen Four??? Let Boston have the Beanpot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 The sooner the Goofies are done for the season the better. I don't know why any Sioux fan would want to see the Goofies in Boston. A one and done in the NCAA's would be perfect by me. There is no way they don't make the tournament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
melmac Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Personally, my dream match up would be a Minnesota/UND final... purely selfish reasons are involved, but imagine the game - it would be a great one, indeed. I'd probably win either way... but I'd much rather have my beloved Gophers beat the Sioux than the other way around. As to the chances of this even happening... the Gophs need to pull their collective heads out and get down to business, and soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted March 3, 2004 Share Posted March 3, 2004 If they were to get swept by SCSU and then not make the Final Five, there's a slight chance they might be passed over for the NCAA tournament. But I would be very surprised if that happens. I expect them to be in the Final Five. I'd love to see the Sioux and Gophers both get to the Frozen Four, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. This senario is possible if some weaker team wins their league championship. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagard Posted March 3, 2004 Share Posted March 3, 2004 This senario is possible if some weaker team wins their league championship. Don't kid yourself about the Gophers missing the tourney. I told you that when they were 2-7-1. There is a better chance that the Gophers will lose their next four games, than the Gophers missing the tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sprig Posted March 3, 2004 Share Posted March 3, 2004 Tis true, the Gophers SOS and winning streak through the middle of the season will get them into the NCAA tourney, ala SCSU last year. At whose expense remains to be seen. Right now there does not appear to be a "Duluth of last year" in the mix, but that could change this weekend and through the WCHA playoffs. Possibly at SCSU's expense, if they would happen to win out at the end (fat chance), since they are a bubble team as it stands now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagard Posted March 3, 2004 Share Posted March 3, 2004 Tis true, the Gophers SOS and winning streak through the middle of the season will get them into the NCAA tourney, ala SCSU last year. At whose expense remains to be seen. Right now there does not appear to be a "Duluth of last year" in the mix, but that could change this weekend and through the WCHA playoffs. Possibly at SCSU's expense, if they would happen to win out at the end (fat chance), since they are a bubble team as it stands now. I think CC is looking like UMD last year. The could easily finish stronger than UM, SCSU, DU and UW, but miss the tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxnami Posted March 3, 2004 Share Posted March 3, 2004 CC may be playing their way into a Duluth of last year role. Quietly they have been playing well. I would not be suprised if they were playing at the X. One another note I see on POI that Lucia had neck surgery. I would have thought the Gopher goaltenders needed it with all that looking behind them. Is laser mullet removal considered neck surgery? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinnesotaNorthStar Posted March 4, 2004 Share Posted March 4, 2004 all you nancy boys can quit whinning, the Gophs will be there (my arrogance of being a Gopher fan). Geeze this board is talking about Gopher hockey more than POI! And it's more positive over here too . You guys are sure ripping your boys apart over there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwing77 Posted March 4, 2004 Share Posted March 4, 2004 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farce poobah Posted March 4, 2004 Share Posted March 4, 2004 No offense, but the Pairwise Rankings Index is the BCS of college hockey! What a joke. #6 in the WCHA but #6 in the PRI? That's as ridiculous as St Cloud going to the NCAA's over UMD last year. There should be a reward for who's turned it up a notch at the end of the season and a "thanks but no thanks" to teams who stagger into the conference playoffs and bow out with a one-and-done series (at home no less...I'm talking about YOU, St Cloud!). Put human error back into the mix! NO! NO! NO! Putting human error back into the mix would be royally stupid. Because it puts politics, money, backstabbing, etc in over merit. Leave it a formula. Improve the formula and tell everyone beforehand, but leave it a formula. Some of us remember UND getting screwed in 1983 and don't want to ever go back to a political system. UND, WCHA runnerup left out of the field, while 4th place UMD, whose AD just happened to be the chair of the selection committee, got in over us and CCHA champ Bowling Green.) Just say no. Please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sprig Posted March 4, 2004 Share Posted March 4, 2004 Some of us remember UND getting screwed in 1983 and don't want to ever go back to a political system. UND, WCHA runnerup left out of the field, while 4th place UMD, whose AD just happened to be the chair of the selection committee, got in over us and CCHA champ Bowling Green.) The biggest travesty of all time. And the reason I couldn't feel sorry for Duluth last year, or any year. Wisco and the Sioux were in a class by themselves, and leaving the Sioux out made the path to the 83 title a cakewalk for Wisco, in the REA no less. The only FF tickets I've ever had. I agree, don't get rid of PWR and RPI, unless the new system is KRACH, or KRACH-like. PWR is fine, it's the weak conference autobids and conference tourney upsets that eliminate teams that should probably make the tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMDDogz Posted March 4, 2004 Share Posted March 4, 2004 CC may be playing their way into a Duluth of last year role. Quietly they have been playing well. I would not be suprised if they were playing at the X. That would mean they would be left out in the cold in March. Plus Duluth last year was slightly better than CC this year (CC 7th place, UMD 5th last year). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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