Grand Forks Economy

[SIOUXFAN97]

are brims population numbers wrong?

[fightingsioux4life]

Just now, SIOUXFAN97 said:

are brims population numbers wrong?

I don't think you would have big real estate developments on the south end if Grand Forks was hemorrhaging population.

[DeadPoets]

Just a shot in the dark here - but the dichotomy of flat/negative population growth yet an increase in the number of housing units could be at least partially explained by a change in household size: smaller "families" but more of them.  ("Families" includes single people staying single longer.)

[fightingsioux4life]

1 minute ago, DeadPoets said:

Just a shot in the dark here - but the dichotomy of flat/negative population growth yet an increase in the number of housing units could be at least partially explained by a change in household size: smaller "families" but more of them.  ("Families" includes single people staying single longer.)

I don't think you can explain all of it with that.

[Brim006]

14 minutes ago, fightingsioux4life said:

https://www.grandforksherald.com/news/local/oxford-realty-planning-to-develop-30-acres-of-land-near-future-altru-sports-complex

So is this so Casper and his friends have a nice place to live? 

What's your point? 119 single family lots? That will only account for about 300 people in a 3-4 year span LOL. That's decimal dust. The data doesn't lie...Grand Forks is not growing, and I'm sorry that hurts your feelings and bias. If one older complex is being torn down anytime soon that will wash out this new addition... those people have to go somewhere, so that will push supply and demand transitions in the apartment and housing market. Any new apartment complexes in GF appear to almost be entirely filled by current locals, or UND students, not newcomer citizens. Upgrading the community housing is always a good thing though, so that's a plus. 

 

[Brim006]

5 minutes ago, DeadPoets said:

Just a shot in the dark here - but the dichotomy of flat/negative population growth yet an increase in the number of housing units could be at least partially explained by a change in household size: smaller "families" but more of them.  ("Families" includes single people staying single longer.)

Exactly. UND campus growth, older complexes getting torn down. The population data is accurate, and shows little to no new residents, so it's just a fact that it's just housing transitions far more than new resident growth. I would love to say Grand Forks is booming just like F/M, BisMan, SF, RC and other similar areas but its just not at all for some reason. Either way, housing upgrades are a boost to the community so that's good to hear. 

[fightingsioux4life]

3 minutes ago, Brim006 said:

Exactly. UND campus growth, older complexes getting torn down. The population data is accurate, and shows little to no new residents, so it's just a fact that it's just housing transitions far more than new resident growth. I would love to say Grand Forks is booming just like F/M, BisMan, SF, RC and other similar areas but its just not at all for some reason. Either way, housing upgrades are a boost to the community so that's good to hear. 

I don't want to "boom" like Fargo; that is too much growth at once.

If you are correct, then we will have a ton of new infrastructure and fewer people to support it.

I don't like that proposition.

[fightingsioux4life]

7 minutes ago, Brim006 said:

What's your point? 119 single family lots? That will only account for about 300 people in a 3-4 year span LOL. That's decimal dust. The data doesn't lie...Grand Forks is not growing, and I'm sorry that hurts your feelings and bias. If one older complex is being torn down anytime soon that will wash out this new addition... those people have to go somewhere, so that will push supply and demand transitions in the apartment and housing market. Any new apartment complexes in GF appear to almost be entirely filled by current locals, or UND students, not newcomer citizens. Upgrading the community housing is always a good thing though, so that's a plus. 

This isn't about my feelings. It just doesn't make sense.

We've been hearing about the demise of Grand Forks since before the 1997 flood and yet, Grand Forks is still here.

[fightingsioux4life]

37 minutes ago, SIOUXFAN97 said:

are brims population numbers wrong?

What are his sources? Perhaps he can share a link to where he is getting the information.

[nodak651]

[nodak651]

[nodak651]

[Hawkster]

1 hour ago, Brim006 said:

Exactly. UND campus growth, older complexes getting torn down. The population data is accurate, and shows little to no new residents, so it's just a fact that it's just housing transitions far more than new resident growth. I would love to say Grand Forks is booming just like F/M, BisMan, SF, RC and other similar areas but its just not at all for some reason. Either way, housing upgrades are a boost to the community so that's good to hear. 

A year or two back I bought up about GF being stagnant on growth and I got the same reception you did.   All estimates are showing no growth or a decline.  Now that said I think estimates tend to be a little on the low side, that way when the actual census numbers come in and are higher then the estimates people don't complain because they are higher then estimated even if the numbers aren't great.

The thing about Fargo's boom is it's been going on for 30 years.   They seem to just keep growing and it's actually even better in West Fargo and Horace.

[forksandspoons]

According the the census (more accurate than estimates), Grand Forks grew 12% from 2010 to 2020. The United States grew 7.4% in that timeframe. 

[Brim006]

These 10 year forecasted growth estimates look promising.

 

[nodak651]

1 hour ago, Brim006 said:

These 10 year forecasted growth estimates look promising.

 

Source?

[Brim006]

1 hour ago, nodak651 said:

Source?

North Dakota population forecast for 2025 and 2030 - Aterio

[gfhockey]

Slap shots fat alberts closed another local eatery gun is this Buczynski’s Grand Forks? But I guess we might as well give the Big Dogs more tax breaks.

[Hawkster]

8 hours ago, Brim006 said:

These 10 year forecasted growth estimates look promising.

 

There's a mistake though.   Jamestown had 15,700 in the actual 2020 census and the chart shows them at 500 less.   Jamestown is most definitely NOT growing, they are simply holding their own, nothing more.

[Cratter]

21 hours ago, Brim006 said:

Population growth? 4-5 apartment complexes per year? I'm assuming this is just a running inside joke I missed haha.

Why would you use made up data when we have real data? Census runs every 10 yrs. The last was in 2020.

It grew by over 6,000 people from the previous real data point, in 2010.

For current trends that's about 250 or so "housing units needing to be built a year."

40 to 60 units per apartment. Although they keep getting bigger and bigger. You can do the math.

From 2010 to 2020 Grand Forks needed a lot of housing per year to keep up with population growth.

Made up estimates don't mean anything. We've see that time and time again. They have a bad track record for anyone paying attention.

Even if it only grows 3,000 people the next ten years you'll need a at least couple new apartment complex a year to keep up with the population growth....not to mention more single family homes, condos, townhouses.

[Cratter]

8 hours ago, Brim006 said:

These 10 year forecasted growth estimates look promising.

 

Case in point. 

You're table can't even get the 2020 Grand Forks Census numbers right.

And that's just easy copy and paste stuff.

[Brim006]

21 hours ago, fightingsioux4life said:

This isn't about my feelings. It just doesn't make sense.

We've been hearing about the demise of Grand Forks since before the 1997 flood and yet, Grand Forks is still here.

I don't think anyone has said Grand Forks was going to crumble to the ground. I think most unbiased outsiders are just noticing the obvious stagnant growth it's had despite all of it's peer cities growing and prospering. I love Grand Forks and want to see it prosper, and maybe that means quality over quantity which would be fine too, but the truth is it hasn't really been either. 

If you want to compare from the 1990s to now. Offical census counts for each peer in 1990 compared to 2020 % growth. Which one stands out?

 

• Fargo, ND: 69.81%
• West Fargo, ND: 159.28%
• Grand Forks, ND: 18.83%
• Rapid City, SD: 42.56%
• Bismarck, ND: 47.32%
• Sioux Falls, SD: 137.04%

 

[Brim006]

10 hours ago, Cratter said:

Case in point. 

You're table can't even get the 2020 Grand Forks Census numbers right.

And that's just easy copy and paste stuff.

How about this one straight from the North Dakota Department of Commerce. Read through their extensive forecasting study and tell me Grand Forks is doing well compared to any of its peers. I didn't come here to argue this point, I came here to try figure out why it's happening and was curious to who had some ideas or solutions. I thought it was pretty well known and obvious Grand Forks was falling short on capturing any of this local economic growth. And judging by these state forecasts, it's only going to snow ball from here. State Data Center | Commerce | North Dakota

• Region 8 (Dickinson): +39.96%
• Region 5 (Fargo): +33.44%
• Region 1 (Williston): +30.01%
• Region 7 (Bismarck): +20.68%
• Region 2 (Minot): +15.00%
• Region 4 (Grand Forks): +3.18%
• Region 3 (Devils Lake): −8.17%
• Region 6 (Jamestown): −9.11%

[Brim006]

19 hours ago, Hawkster said:

A year or two back I bought up about GF being stagnant on growth and I got the same reception you did.   All estimates are showing no growth or a decline.  Now that said I think estimates tend to be a little on the low side, that way when the actual census numbers come in and are higher then the estimates people don't complain because they are higher then estimated even if the numbers aren't great.

The thing about Fargo's boom is it's been going on for 30 years.   They seem to just keep growing and it's actually even better in West Fargo and Horace.

Agreed. But I'm not just comparing with Fargo, I'm comparing with pretty much every other peer city within a 750-1000 mile radius that has been growing substantially in population, economy, household income and everything in between all at levels far above Grand Forks. And other than the good ole boys club actively suppressing new development opportunities to protect their own pockets, I just don't understand how or why it has happened. And the future outlook appears to be even worse.  

2025 to 2050 population growth forecasts just in ND, from the ND dept of commerce. 

[Brim006]

10 hours ago, Cratter said:

Why would you use made up data when we have real data? Census runs every 10 yrs. The last was in 2020.

It grew by over 6,000 people from the previous real data point, in 2010.

For current trends that's about 250 or so "housing units needing to be built a year."

40 to 60 units per apartment. Although they keep getting bigger and bigger. You can do the math.

From 2010 to 2020 Grand Forks needed a lot of housing per year to keep up with population growth.

Made up estimates don't mean anything. We've see that time and time again. They have a bad track record for anyone paying attention.

Even if it only grows 3,000 people the next ten years you'll need a at least couple new apartment complex a year to keep up with the population growth....not to mention more single family homes, condos, townhouses.

To be fair, the census is typically the baseline for population estimates yes, but it's pretty well known that the 2020 census was a disaster due to covid. The counts got drug out nearly 2 years late, it forced restarting counts midway through, and the questionable results have created many debates about it's accuracy in many different areas due to it's impact on political representative counts in some larger cities and states. But it's still far better than judging by a new apartment complex or gut feel on traffic congestion.