Pairwise Rankings

jimdahl · March 18, 2013

Jim, I am assuming in this scenario where UND finishes 12th, atleast one of the autobids is taken by a team that would have qualified as an at-large bid given that 12th in the PWR doesn't give you an automatic entry with 5 autobids out there?

Exactly. The things that hurt UND's PWR the most are teams just below it winning -- Niagara, St. Cloud, Mankato, Notre Dame. While those push down UND's PWR, they also result in autobids going to teams that would have made it at-large anyway.

I've updated the blog post with the complete table based on wins.

Remaining PWR/tournament possibilities

Dave Berger · March 18, 2013

Jim, I wouldn't be able to do any of this work even if I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express for a month.

Nice job, and very helpful in this format.

Dave

LeftyZL · March 18, 2013

Jim-

Looking at the numbers that you graciously compiled, it basically looks like Wisconsin has to run the table to make the tourney. Anyway of knowing now how much that loss to Penn St. hurt them in the rankings?

AZSIOUX · March 18, 2013

Jim-

Looking at the numbers that you graciously compiled, it basically looks like Wisconsin has to run the table to make the tourney. Anyway of knowing now how much that loss to Penn St. hurt them in the rankings?

I'm guessing that's the main reason they are on the bubble. That loss killed them in the pwr if I can remember right. NCAA killer up to this point for eaves squad

jimdahl · March 18, 2013

Looking at the numbers that you graciously compiled, it basically looks like Wisconsin has to run the table to make the tourney. Anyway of knowing now how much that loss to Penn St. hurt them in the rankings?

If Wisconsin had won that game, their outlook would look like this:

UW #4 0.2%
#5 0.6%
#6 1.3%
#7 1.6%
#8 2.2%
#9 3.3%
#10 2.7%
#11 2.0%
#12 2.3%
#13 3.0%
#14 3.7%
#15 4.6%
#16 12.8%
#17 24.0%
#18 20.5%
#19 11.8%
#20 3.0%
#21 0.5%
#22 0.0%
Tournament invites: 22.7%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2 Win 3
#4 1.6%
#5 4.9%
#6 10.1%
#7 12.7%
#8 17.9%
#9 26.5%
#10 2.2% 19.0%
#11 9.7% 6.0%
#12 17.3% 1.2%
#13 23.6% 0.2%
#14 0.5% 28.9% 0.0%
#15 9.3% 18.2%
#16 9.9% 31.3% 0.2%
#17 29.5% 37.0%
#18 32.4% 17.2%
#19 21.2% 4.6%
#20 5.8% 0.2%
#21 1.1%
#22 0.0%
Tournament invites: 0.5% 4.6% 70.0% 100.0%[/code]

The Sicatoka · March 19, 2013

So that Penn State loss took Wisconsin from "win two and be pretty safe, a 70% chance" to "win two to even have a chance, and just a 7% chance".

Now, with that data point in hand, I heretofore retain the unabridged right complain about any loss to any team at any point in any future season.

Ha-rumph ....

</crabby old guy>

jimdahl · March 19, 2013

As there are only two games Thursday, it's pretty easy to run the combinations and see what things will look like Friday morning. Here's the interesting stuff:

Mankato -- can lock up an invite with a win

Notre Dame -- if UND/Mankato win, can now clinch with just one win

Niagara -- with any outcome other than CC/UW winning, can now clinch with just one win

St Cloud -- with any outcome other than CC/Mankato winning, can now clinch with just one win

Wisconsin -- out unless they win

RPI -- drops from about a 10% chance to about 5% if Mankato loses

Robert Morris -- already slim chance plummets (though not quite to 0) if CC wins

Alaska -- out if CC wins

Colorado College -- out unless they win

jimdahl · March 19, 2013

Friday morning's reading if CC and Mankato win

Team

PWR Possibilities

Overall

By number of wins

Quinnipiac

#1 100.0%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#1	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

UMN

#2 100.0%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#2	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Miami

#3 45.0%

#4 34.7%

#5 15.5%

#6 4.3%

#7 0.5%

#8 0.0%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3	27.6%	37.6%	87.1%
#4	41.3%	43.1%	12.9%
#5	23.1%	15.7%
#6	7.0%	3.3%
#7	0.9%	0.3%
#8	0.0%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Boston College

#3 17.0%

#4 15.3%

#5 22.1%

#6 22.8%

#7 15.8%

#8 5.4%

#9 1.4%

#10 0.3%

#11 0.1%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3			67.9%
#4	6.2%	19.2%	29.7%
#5	22.8%	40.3%	2.4%
#6	30.8%	29.5%
#7	26.6%	9.9%
#8	10.1%	1.1%
#9	2.7%
#10	0.5%
#11	0.2%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Yale

#3 3.0%

#4 15.4%

#5 15.7%

#6 14.8%

#7 12.6%

#8 7.6%

#9 3.9%

#10 3.6%

#11 4.7%

#12 6.1%

#13 7.5%

#14 5.0%

#15 0.1%

#16 0.0%

Tournament invites: 97.1%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3			11.9%
#4		4.7%	53.5%
#5	0.1%	20.3%	28.8%
#6	1.8%	30.9%	5.1%
#7	3.3%	27.2%	0.7%
#8	7.3%	12.5%
#9	7.8%	3.2%
#10	9.6%	1.0%
#11	13.7%	0.2%
#12	18.4%	0.0%
#13	22.5%
#14	15.0%
#15	0.4%
#16	0.0%
Tournament invites:	91.3%	100.0%	100.0%

Mass.-Lowell

#3 20.3%

#4 7.9%

#5 16.0%

#6 23.8%

#7 18.4%

#8 10.0%

#9 2.9%

#10 0.6%

#11 0.0%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3		2.7%	78.7%
#4	0.7%	16.8%	13.3%
#5	12.7%	30.6%	8.0%
#6	31.6%	31.7%	0.0%
#7	29.3%	15.1%
#8	18.8%	2.5%
#9	5.5%	0.6%
#10	1.2%
#11	0.1%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

UND

#5 2.1%

#6 5.0%

#7 17.4%

#8 23.6%

#9 28.4%

#10 18.5%

#11 4.9%

#12 0.2%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

n/a

New Hampshire

#5 0.3%

#6 4.9%

#7 13.4%

#8 35.8%

#9 35.6%

#10 9.7%

#11 0.2%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

n/a

Notre Dame

#3 4.5%

#4 5.5%

#5 2.3%

#6 0.9%

#7 1.1%

#8 1.6%

#9 4.1%

#10 19.6%

#11 17.1%

#12 6.9%

#13 9.9%

#14 6.6%

#15 9.1%

#16 8.7%

#17 2.0%

#18 0.2%

Tournament invites: 81.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3			18.1%
#4		0.2%	21.9%
#5		0.6%	8.7%
#6		1.3%	2.1%
#7		4.4%
#8		6.4%	0.0%
#9	0.5%	12.6%	2.7%
#10	15.1%	17.5%	30.5%
#11	23.2%	6.7%	15.4%
#12	9.4%	8.2%	0.6%
#13	3.0%	33.5%
#14	9.0%	8.4%
#15	18.1%	0.3%
#16	17.3%
#17	4.0%
#18	0.3%
Tournament invites:	62.6%	98.6%	100.0%

Mankato

#3 10.0%

#4 11.7%

#5 8.7%

#6 9.2%

#7 10.7%

#8 8.8%

#9 14.6%

#10 15.5%

#11 8.7%

#12 2.0%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3			39.9%
#4	0.3%	8.4%	37.9%
#5	0.9%	15.9%	17.3%
#6	4.0%	24.1%	4.9%
#7	10.0%	23.1%
#8	12.4%	10.3%
#9	23.2%	12.1%
#10	28.1%	5.5%
#11	17.1%	0.6%
#12	4.0%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Niagara

#4 3.6%

#5 8.3%

#6 8.1%

#7 7.3%

#8 6.5%

#9 2.5%

#10 5.8%

#11 17.5%

#12 23.3%

#13 15.6%

#14 1.6%

Tournament invites: 96.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#4			14.3%
#5		0.3%	32.9%
#6		3.1%	29.1%
#7		12.2%	17.0%
#8		19.8%	6.1%
#9		9.3%	0.6%
#10	2.6%	18.1%
#11	21.0%	27.9%
#12	42.2%	8.8%
#13	31.0%	0.6%
#14	3.1%
Tournament invites:	92.0%	100.0%	100.0%

SCSU

#3 0.2%

#4 6.0%

#5 9.1%

#6 6.3%

#7 2.8%

#8 0.7%

#9 2.0%

#10 8.3%

#11 10.6%

#12 23.2%

#13 24.9%

#14 6.1%

Tournament invites: 94.3%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3			0.9%
#4			23.8%
#5			36.3%
#6			25.3%
#7			11.0%
#8		0.2%	2.4%
#9		7.9%	0.2%
#10		33.1%
#11	3.4%	35.4%
#12	35.6%	21.4%
#13	48.8%	2.0%
#14	12.1%
Tournament invites:	89.3%	98.4%	100.0%

Denver

#8 0.1%

#9 4.6%

#10 17.8%

#11 33.4%

#12 30.4%

#13 13.6%

#14 0.1%

Tournament invites: 97.8%

n/a

Western Michigan

#13 15.0%

#14 59.3%

#15 23.3%

#16 2.5%

Tournament invites: 55.8%

n/a

Union

#10 0.3%

#11 2.8%

#12 7.8%

#13 9.8%

#14 12.2%

#15 30.8%

#16 25.1%

#17 5.9%

#18 3.3%

#19 1.4%

#20 0.5%

Tournament invites: 41.8%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#10			1.4%
#11			11.3%
#12			31.2%
#13		0.7%	38.2%
#14	5.7%	14.1%	17.9%
#15	27.0%	52.2%
#16	34.0%	33.0%
#17	17.6%
#18	9.9%
#19	4.3%
#20	1.5%
Tournament invites:	16.3%	27.3%	100.0%

UW

#17 7.7%

#18 20.5%

#19 25.5%

#20 22.8%

#21 17.1%

#22 6.1%

#23 0.3%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Providence

#13 0.0%

#14 1.0%

#15 9.3%

#16 11.8%

#17 8.1%

#18 12.6%

#19 12.5%

#20 11.9%

#21 9.9%

#22 8.0%

#23 8.1%

#24 4.5%

#25 2.0%

#26 0.2%

Tournament invites: 25.1%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#13			0.2%
#14			4.0%
#15			37.3%
#16		2.7%	44.3%
#17	0.4%	20.3%	11.3%
#18	4.9%	37.8%	2.9%
#19	10.8%	28.2%
#20	19.3%	9.1%
#21	18.9%	1.6%
#22	15.9%	0.2%
#23	16.3%
#24	9.1%
#25	4.0%
#26	0.5%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.3%	100.0%

Boston University

#13 3.0%

#14 5.1%

#15 13.1%

#16 7.4%

#17 9.1%

#18 17.5%

#19 23.3%

#20 12.9%

#21 5.9%

#22 2.5%

#23 0.3%

Tournament invites: 25.6%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#13			12.0%
#14		0.1%	20.4%
#15		1.2%	51.1%
#16		12.9%	16.6%
#17	1.9%	32.7%
#18	19.8%	30.3%
#19	36.6%	19.8%
#20	24.5%	2.7%
#21	11.5%	0.4%
#22	5.0%
#23	0.6%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	2.4%	100.0%

Rensselaer

#13 0.7%

#14 3.0%

#15 14.3%

#16 43.1%

#17 33.9%

#18 4.5%

#19 0.5%

#20 0.0%

Tournament invites: 10.6%

n/a

Alaska

#16 0.1%

#17 1.6%

#18 6.6%

#19 11.4%

#20 12.5%

#21 12.0%

#22 13.5%

#23 17.7%

#24 14.6%

#25 8.2%

#26 1.8%

#27 0.1%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Cornell

#18 0.5%

#19 3.2%

#20 4.4%

#21 6.4%

#22 13.0%

#23 22.4%

#24 25.4%

#25 19.1%

#26 5.6%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Brown

#16 0.3%

#17 4.4%

#18 9.0%

#19 10.8%

#20 16.0%

#21 15.2%

#22 12.1%

#23 6.6%

#24 7.4%

#25 6.0%

#26 9.3%

#27 2.7%

#28 0.1%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#16			1.4%
#17			17.4%
#18		1.1%	34.3%
#19	0.3%	8.6%	28.7%
#20	4.3%	25.4%	16.1%
#21	7.8%	29.1%	2.2%
#22	9.1%	21.8%	0.0%
#23	10.4%	7.4%
#24	13.9%	6.5%
#25	18.0%	0.0%
#26	27.8%
#27	8.2%
#28	0.2%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Dartmouth

#18 0.4%

#19 3.1%

#20 10.5%

#21 22.1%

#22 29.7%

#23 22.0%

#24 10.2%

#25 1.9%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Robert Morris

#16 1.2%

#17 26.3%

#18 21.5%

#19 1.7%

#20 1.1%

#21 2.7%

#22 5.4%

#23 7.3%

#24 14.0%

#25 14.8%

#26 3.8%

#27 0.1%

Tournament invites:

n/a

CC

#18 0.9%

#19 2.3%

#20 3.7%

#21 4.7%

#22 5.8%

#23 8.9%

#24 12.8%

#25 28.2%

#26 27.4%

#27 5.3%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#18			3.4%
#19			9.3%
#20			14.8%
#21		0.8%	18.2%
#22		6.3%	16.7%
#23	0.8%	11.9%	22.4%
#24	5.1%	27.4%	13.5%
#25	35.5%	40.2%	1.6%
#26	48.0%	13.5%	0.1%
#27	10.6%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Ohio State

#17 0.9%

#18 2.6%

#19 4.1%

#20 3.5%

#21 4.1%

#22 3.6%

#23 4.6%

#24 3.4%

#25 5.9%

#26 4.4%

#27 8.0%

#28 23.2%

#29 23.8%

#30 0.5%

#31 6.2%

#32 1.2%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#17			3.7%
#18			10.2%
#19			16.5%
#20			14.1%
#21		0.8%	15.5%
#22		1.5%	13.0%
#23		5.8%	12.8%
#24		8.1%	5.4%
#25		17.3%	6.3%
#26		15.4%	2.3%
#27		32.0%
#28	37.4%	17.8%
#29	46.8%	1.3%
#30	0.9%
#31	12.3%
#32	2.5%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Ferris State

#26 3.6%

#27 43.1%

#28 40.6%

#29 11.8%

#30 0.9%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

St. Lawrence

#25 0.0%

#26 24.6%

#27 29.7%

#28 28.3%

#29 14.7%

#30 2.7%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Nebraska-Omaha

#28 0.0%

#29 28.8%

#30 49.0%

#31 13.8%

#32 8.3%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Michigan

#21 0.0%

#22 0.2%

#23 1.1%

#24 5.0%

#25 9.0%

#26 9.3%

#27 4.2%

#28 7.8%

#29 10.2%

#30 2.7%

#31 0.6%

#32 0.0%

Non-TUC 49.8%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#21			0.2%
#22			0.7%
#23			4.6%
#24			20.0%
#25			35.9%
#26			37.3%
#27		15.4%	1.3%
#28		31.3%
#29		40.9%
#30		10.6%
#31	0.3%	1.8%
#32	0.1%
Non-TUC	99.6%	0.0%	0.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Connecticut

#22 0.1%

#23 0.6%

#24 2.8%

#25 4.7%

#26 10.1%

#27 6.7%

#28 0.0%

#29 7.7%

#30 11.6%

#31 2.7%

#32 3.1%

Non-TUC 49.9%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#22			0.4%
#23			2.3%
#24			11.4%
#25			18.9%
#26			40.2%
#27			26.8%
#28		0.1%
#29		30.6%
#30		46.5%
#31	0.1%	10.5%
#32	0.1%	12.2%
Non-TUC	99.8%	0.0%	0.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Holy Cross

#29 3.1%

#30 32.6%

#31 51.9%

#32 12.4%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Canisius

Non-TUC 100.0%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
Non-TUC	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Mercyhurst

Non-TUC 100.0%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
Non-TUC	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

jimdahl · March 19, 2013

Friday morning's reading if CC and Wisconsin win

Team

PWR Possibilities

Overall

By number of wins

Quinnipiac

#1 100.0%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#1	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

UMN

#2 100.0%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#2	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Miami

#3 55.4%

#4 34.8%

#5 8.1%

#6 1.7%

#7 0.0%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3	37.2%	51.7%	95.6%
#4	45.2%	44.4%	4.4%
#5	14.4%	3.4%
#6	3.2%	0.5%
#7	0.1%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Boston College

#3 18.8%

#4 23.9%

#5 28.7%

#6 18.9%

#7 7.7%

#8 2.0%

#9 0.1%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3			75.0%
#4	21.1%	28.5%	25.0%
#5	34.1%	46.5%
#6	27.5%	20.6%
#7	13.4%	3.9%
#8	3.7%	0.4%
#9	0.3%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Yale

#3 1.4%

#4 16.0%

#5 21.4%

#6 16.8%

#7 12.1%

#8 6.3%

#9 3.9%

#10 2.7%

#11 2.7%

#12 4.2%

#13 6.4%

#14 4.7%

#15 1.2%

#16 0.2%

#17 0.0%

Tournament invites: 96.3%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3			5.6%
#4		3.9%	57.5%
#5	3.0%	29.7%	32.3%
#6	4.4%	34.4%	4.0%
#7	8.6%	21.8%	0.7%
#8	9.2%	7.7%
#9	9.3%	2.0%
#10	7.5%	0.5%
#11	8.1%	0.0%
#12	12.5%	0.0%
#13	19.2%
#14	14.0%
#15	3.5%
#16	0.6%
#17	0.0%
Tournament invites:	89.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Mass.-Lowell

#3 18.0%

#4 7.0%

#5 16.9%

#6 30.5%

#7 17.9%

#8 8.1%

#9 1.5%

#10 0.1%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3		1.7%	70.1%
#4		10.2%	17.9%
#5	9.7%	36.5%	11.8%
#6	41.8%	38.3%	0.2%
#7	30.4%	11.1%
#8	15.1%	2.0%
#9	2.8%	0.3%
#10	0.1%	0.0%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

UND

#5 2.8%

#6 9.9%

#7 27.2%

#8 22.1%

#9 21.7%

#10 13.3%

#11 3.0%

#12 0.0%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

n/a

New Hampshire

#5 0.5%

#6 4.8%

#7 15.2%

#8 41.1%

#9 33.3%

#10 5.0%

#11 0.1%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

n/a

Notre Dame

#3 6.3%

#4 6.6%

#5 1.7%

#6 0.5%

#7 2.3%

#8 2.4%

#9 7.8%

#10 16.4%

#11 13.5%

#12 6.5%

#13 8.4%

#14 6.5%

#15 10.8%

#16 8.4%

#17 1.5%

#18 0.1%

Tournament invites: 79.7%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3			25.1%
#4			26.5%
#5		1.8%	4.9%
#6		1.9%	0.1%
#7		9.3%
#8	0.4%	8.8%	0.0%
#9	6.5%	15.7%	2.6%
#10	17.7%	11.1%	19.3%
#11	16.3%	2.4%	19.1%
#12	7.6%	8.7%	2.2%
#13	2.3%	28.8%	0.2%
#14	7.9%	10.3%
#15	21.1%	1.2%
#16	16.9%	0.0%
#17	3.1%
#18	0.3%
Tournament invites:	60.4%	97.9%	100.0%

Mankato

#5 0.0%

#6 0.3%

#7 1.2%

#8 4.4%

#9 19.1%

#10 34.2%

#11 26.2%

#12 11.8%

#13 2.6%

#14 0.2%

Tournament invites: 99.0%

n/a

Niagara

#4 5.7%

#5 10.5%

#6 8.5%

#7 7.0%

#8 3.1%

#9 2.3%

#10 5.2%

#11 11.9%

#12 21.3%

#13 21.4%

#14 2.9%

#15 0.2%

Tournament invites: 93.5%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#4			22.7%
#5		1.1%	40.9%
#6		9.1%	25.1%
#7		18.5%	9.5%
#8		10.8%	1.7%
#9	0.0%	9.0%	0.1%
#10	1.7%	17.5%
#11	12.7%	22.3%
#12	37.5%	10.2%
#13	42.1%	1.4%
#14	5.7%
#15	0.3%
Tournament invites:	87.2%	99.5%	100.0%

SCSU

#3 0.2%

#4 6.0%

#5 9.4%

#6 7.9%

#7 9.4%

#8 9.8%

#9 5.0%

#10 3.3%

#11 7.6%

#12 16.0%

#13 18.3%

#14 6.0%

#15 1.1%

Tournament invites: 91.1%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3			0.8%
#4			23.8%
#5		1.2%	36.5%
#6		6.4%	25.3%
#7		26.5%	10.9%
#8		36.7%	2.4%
#9	0.2%	19.3%	0.2%
#10	3.1%	7.1%
#11	14.0%	2.4%
#12	31.9%	0.3%
#13	36.5%	0.0%
#14	12.1%
#15	2.2%
Tournament invites:	82.3%	100.0%	100.0%

Denver

#7 0.0%

#8 0.8%

#9 5.3%

#10 18.9%

#11 30.0%

#12 30.1%

#13 14.7%

#14 0.2%

Tournament invites: 97.0%

n/a

Western Michigan

#13 12.3%

#14 52.5%

#15 29.1%

#16 6.1%

#17 0.0%

Tournament invites: 48.1%

n/a

Union

#9 0.0%

#10 0.4%

#11 2.7%

#12 7.0%

#13 9.4%

#14 11.9%

#15 26.8%

#16 24.6%

#17 7.5%

#18 4.1%

#19 3.2%

#20 1.9%

#21 0.4%

#22 0.1%

Tournament invites: 37.9%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#9			0.1%
#10			1.7%
#11			10.6%
#12			28.1%
#13		0.6%	36.6%
#14	4.4%	11.4%	22.9%
#15	21.6%	47.0%
#16	28.0%	36.8%
#17	17.1%	4.3%
#18	12.4%
#19	9.5%
#20	5.6%
#21	1.2%
#22	0.2%
Tournament invites:	11.9%	21.4%	100.0%

UW

#10 0.4%

#11 2.3%

#12 3.0%

#13 4.6%

#14 9.5%

#15 7.7%

#16 11.7%

#17 17.5%

#18 21.1%

#19 14.7%

#20 6.1%

#21 1.5%

#22 0.1%

Tournament invites: 26.3%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#10			1.4%
#11			9.1%
#12			12.1%
#13			18.2%
#14		2.0%	36.1%
#15		12.7%	18.2%
#16	0.1%	41.6%	4.8%
#17	20.6%	28.7%
#18	36.8%	10.7%
#19	27.3%	4.2%
#20	12.1%	0.1%
#21	2.9%
#22	0.1%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	5.3%	100.0%

Providence

#13 0.0%

#14 0.7%

#15 5.4%

#16 9.6%

#17 7.4%

#18 9.5%

#19 17.2%

#20 17.3%

#21 13.1%

#22 9.3%

#23 6.9%

#24 2.7%

#25 0.7%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#13			0.0%
#14			2.9%
#15			21.4%
#16		2.0%	36.4%
#17	0.0%	5.0%	24.6%
#18	5.3%	18.5%	9.2%
#19	14.2%	36.2%	4.1%
#20	20.9%	26.1%	1.4%
#21	20.7%	11.0%
#22	18.1%	1.2%
#23	13.8%
#24	5.5%
#25	1.4%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.2%	100.0%

Boston University

#13 2.0%

#14 4.0%

#15 11.6%

#16 10.9%

#17 9.7%

#18 10.5%

#19 20.7%

#20 18.4%

#21 8.9%

#22 3.1%

#23 0.3%

Tournament invites: 25.8%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#13			7.9%
#14		0.5%	15.5%
#15		3.3%	43.2%
#16		19.6%	24.1%
#17		30.1%	8.5%
#18	8.5%	24.0%	0.7%
#19	33.3%	16.2%
#20	34.2%	5.3%
#21	17.4%	0.7%
#22	6.0%	0.2%
#23	0.6%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	3.2%	100.0%

Rensselaer

#14 0.8%

#15 6.1%

#16 24.7%

#17 34.0%

#18 22.9%

#19 8.9%

#20 2.4%

#21 0.3%

Tournament invites: 5.0%

n/a

Alaska

#16 0.2%

#17 1.9%

#18 5.1%

#19 11.1%

#20 15.4%

#21 15.2%

#22 15.0%

#23 15.0%

#24 12.0%

#25 6.4%

#26 2.4%

#27 0.2%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Cornell

#19 0.9%

#20 2.4%

#21 4.2%

#22 8.8%

#23 19.6%

#24 28.6%

#25 24.3%

#26 10.2%

#27 1.1%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Brown

#16 0.1%

#17 0.8%

#18 4.2%

#19 10.5%

#20 17.4%

#21 20.4%

#22 14.3%

#23 8.0%

#24 6.5%

#25 6.2%

#26 7.9%

#27 3.0%

#28 0.5%

#29 0.1%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#16			0.3%
#17			3.4%
#18			16.9%
#19	0.5%	5.3%	32.7%
#20	4.2%	22.6%	26.2%
#21	7.3%	32.5%	17.6%
#22	8.3%	25.8%	3.0%
#23	13.4%	8.5%
#24	13.5%	4.9%
#25	18.1%	0.5%
#26	23.6%
#27	9.1%
#28	1.6%
#29	0.2%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Dartmouth

#18 0.1%

#19 2.4%

#20 10.4%

#21 23.0%

#22 31.5%

#23 22.0%

#24 9.5%

#25 1.1%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Robert Morris

#15 0.0%

#16 3.5%

#17 19.7%

#18 20.1%

#19 6.5%

#20 0.9%

#21 1.9%

#22 4.6%

#23 7.2%

#24 10.6%

#25 15.9%

#26 7.0%

#27 1.9%

Tournament invites: 0.2%

n/a

CC

#18 0.1%

#19 0.9%

#20 2.6%

#21 5.7%

#22 7.7%

#23 11.4%

#24 15.4%

#25 25.2%

#26 26.2%

#27 4.8%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#18			0.4%
#19			3.5%
#20			10.4%
#21		2.1%	20.6%
#22		7.0%	23.7%
#23	1.5%	15.9%	26.7%
#24	7.6%	33.3%	13.3%
#25	34.0%	31.8%	1.3%
#26	47.4%	9.9%	0.1%
#27	9.5%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Ohio State

#18 2.1%

#19 3.0%

#20 4.9%

#21 5.3%

#22 5.0%

#23 6.3%

#24 4.4%

#25 4.4%

#26 2.8%

#27 8.1%

#28 22.3%

#29 25.1%

#30 0.2%

#31 6.1%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#18			8.2%
#19			12.0%
#20		0.0%	19.7%
#21		1.4%	19.7%
#22		5.4%	14.8%
#23		11.7%	13.5%
#24		12.7%	4.9%
#25		11.7%	5.9%
#26		9.7%	1.3%
#27		32.4%
#28	37.5%	14.3%
#29	49.8%	0.7%
#30	0.4%
#31	12.3%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Ferris State

#26 5.9%

#27 44.0%

#28 39.8%

#29 9.6%

#30 0.7%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

St. Lawrence

#24 0.0%

#25 0.1%

#26 22.4%

#27 28.3%

#28 29.4%

#29 16.7%

#30 3.1%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Nebraska-Omaha

#29 20.3%

#30 47.8%

#31 20.8%

#32 11.1%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Michigan

#21 0.0%

#22 0.2%

#23 1.8%

#24 6.5%

#25 8.8%

#26 7.5%

#27 3.8%

#28 8.0%

#29 11.0%

#30 2.4%

#31 1.1%

#32 0.6%

Non-TUC 48.3%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#21			0.1%
#22			0.8%
#23			7.0%
#24			26.0%
#25			35.4%
#26			30.1%
#27		14.5%	0.6%
#28		32.0%
#29		43.8%
#30		9.7%
#31	2.2%
#32	1.1%
Non-TUC	96.6%	0.0%	0.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Connecticut

#21 0.2%

#22 0.3%

#23 1.5%

#24 3.6%

#25 6.8%

#26 7.8%

#27 4.8%

#28 0.0%

#29 8.3%

#30 12.2%

#31 2.0%

#32 2.5%

Non-TUC 50.0%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#21			0.8%
#22			1.2%
#23			6.2%
#24			14.3%
#25			27.1%
#26			31.0%
#27			19.3%
#28
#29		33.3%
#30		48.9%
#31		8.0%
#32		9.9%
Non-TUC	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Holy Cross

#29 8.9%

#30 33.5%

#31 46.1%

#32 11.4%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Canisius

Non-TUC 100.0%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
Non-TUC	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Mercyhurst

Non-TUC 100.0%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
Non-TUC	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

jimdahl · March 19, 2013

Friday morning's reading if UND and Mankato win

Team

PWR Possibilities

Overall

By number of wins

Quinnipiac

#1 100.0%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#1	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

UMN

#2 100.0%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#2	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Miami

#3 44.8%

#4 33.0%

#5 17.5%

#6 4.4%

#7 0.2%

#8 0.0%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3	24.3%	34.1%	96.6%
#4	41.5%	45.8%	3.4%
#5	26.1%	17.7%
#6	7.6%	2.4%
#7	0.4%
#8	0.0%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Boston College

#3 16.1%

#4 13.6%

#5 16.9%

#6 19.8%

#7 15.7%

#8 9.4%

#9 4.9%

#10 2.4%

#11 1.0%

#12 0.2%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3			64.3%
#4	4.4%	13.7%	32.0%
#5	14.0%	36.0%	3.7%
#6	22.5%	34.3%
#7	24.9%	13.0%
#8	17.3%	2.9%
#9	9.7%	0.2%
#10	4.9%
#11	2.0%
#12	0.3%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Yale

#3 2.6%

#4 11.2%

#5 10.2%

#6 11.3%

#7 10.7%

#8 14.0%

#9 9.6%

#10 5.9%

#11 4.9%

#12 6.0%

#13 7.4%

#14 5.5%

#15 0.7%

#16 0.1%

#17 0.0%

Tournament invites: 97.7%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3			10.5%
#4		0.5%	44.0%
#5	0.1%	5.6%	31.3%
#6	2.0%	17.9%	12.7%
#7	3.5%	22.0%	1.5%
#8	7.7%	27.4%
#9	9.0%	15.9%
#10	8.1%	7.7%
#11	11.1%	2.8%
#12	17.7%	0.2%
#13	22.2%
#14	16.4%
#15	2.0%
#16	0.2%
#17	0.0%
Tournament invites:	93.2%	100.0%	100.0%

Mass.-Lowell

#3 17.7%

#4 9.0%

#5 15.0%

#6 20.7%

#7 19.2%

#8 10.9%

#9 5.7%

#10 1.7%

#11 0.1%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3		0.9%	69.8%
#4	0.9%	12.0%	22.3%
#5	9.8%	32.7%	7.5%
#6	23.7%	35.0%	0.5%
#7	30.7%	15.5%
#8	20.4%	2.6%
#9	10.9%	1.1%
#10	3.3%	0.2%
#11	0.2%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

UND

#3 5.2%

#4 12.0%

#5 15.1%

#6 15.4%

#7 22.3%

#8 17.2%

#9 8.9%

#10 3.1%

#11 0.7%

#12 0.0%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3			20.6%
#4		2.7%	45.4%
#5	6.2%	15.5%	32.5%
#6	17.6%	25.1%	1.5%
#7	30.0%	29.1%
#8	26.3%	16.4%
#9	13.7%	8.4%
#10	4.9%	2.5%
#11	1.2%	0.5%
#12	0.1%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

New Hampshire

#5 0.1%

#6 3.4%

#7 9.8%

#8 25.1%

#9 38.3%

#10 19.3%

#11 3.9%

#12 0.1%

#13 0.0%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

n/a

Notre Dame

#3 2.8%

#4 5.5%

#5 3.6%

#6 2.0%

#7 1.8%

#8 2.3%

#9 6.0%

#10 19.0%

#11 14.7%

#12 6.3%

#13 10.2%

#14 6.6%

#15 9.0%

#16 6.8%

#17 2.8%

#18 0.6%

#19 0.0%

Tournament invites: 83.8%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3			11.0%
#4		0.2%	21.8%
#5		0.8%	13.5%
#6		2.5%	5.6%
#7		3.8%	3.3%
#8	0.0%	6.9%	2.4%
#9	1.8%	12.9%	7.3%
#10	15.6%	16.4%	28.6%
#11	22.9%	6.3%	6.5%
#12	8.5%	8.4%	0.0%
#13	2.6%	35.6%
#14	10.2%	6.1%
#15	18.0%	0.1%
#16	13.6%
#17	5.6%
#18	1.2%
#19	0.0%
Tournament invites:	67.7%	100.0%	100.0%

Mankato

#3 10.9%

#4 9.4%

#5 6.9%

#6 8.4%

#7 10.8%

#8 14.6%

#9 13.8%

#10 14.2%

#11 8.9%

#12 2.0%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3			43.5%
#4	0.1%	1.2%	36.3%
#5	1.3%	9.2%	15.6%
#6	3.8%	21.4%	4.6%
#7	8.7%	25.7%
#8	17.3%	23.8%
#9	21.2%	12.8%
#10	26.0%	4.9%
#11	17.4%	0.9%
#12	4.1%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Niagara

#4 2.5%

#5 6.9%

#6 7.6%

#7 5.2%

#8 4.5%

#9 6.5%

#10 10.3%

#11 17.1%

#12 22.7%

#13 15.3%

#14 1.3%

Tournament invites: 98.2%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#4			10.0%
#5			27.8%
#6		0.0%	30.3%
#7		0.7%	20.2%
#8		9.3%	8.7%
#9	0.2%	23.3%	2.5%
#10	3.0%	34.8%	0.5%
#11	21.3%	25.8%
#12	42.3%	6.1%
#13	30.6%
#14	2.6%
Tournament invites:	96.3%	100.0%	100.0%

SCSU

#4 3.7%

#5 7.9%

#6 6.9%

#7 4.3%

#8 1.9%

#9 2.8%

#10 8.6%

#11 11.3%

#12 22.8%

#13 24.0%

#14 5.8%

Tournament invites: 97.4%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#4			14.8%
#5			31.6%
#6			27.7%
#7		0.1%	17.2%
#8		0.8%	6.8%
#9		9.4%	1.8%
#10		34.2%	0.2%
#11	3.8%	37.7%
#12	36.6%	17.8%
#13	47.9%
#14	11.6%
Tournament invites:	94.7%	100.0%	100.0%

Denver

#8 0.1%

#9 3.3%

#10 14.9%

#11 34.5%

#12 32.4%

#13 14.6%

#14 0.2%

Tournament invites: 99.1%

n/a

Western Michigan

#13 14.7%

#14 59.2%

#15 23.6%

#16 2.3%

#17 0.2%

#18 0.0%

Tournament invites: 64.9%

n/a

Union

#8 0.0%

#9 0.1%

#10 0.5%

#11 2.8%

#12 7.4%

#13 9.7%

#14 12.5%

#15 30.5%

#16 23.5%

#17 5.9%

#18 4.6%

#19 1.9%

#20 0.5%

Tournament invites: 45.2%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#8			0.0%
#9			0.4%
#10			2.0%
#11			11.3%
#12			29.8%
#13		0.6%	37.8%
#14	5.6%	14.1%	18.7%
#15	26.7%	51.9%
#16	29.0%	33.3%
#17	17.7%
#18	13.9%
#19	5.6%
#20	1.6%
Tournament invites:	19.1%	33.1%	100.0%

UW

#17 7.2%

#18 19.4%

#19 24.1%

#20 22.0%

#21 18.4%

#22 8.4%

#23 0.5%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Providence

#13 0.1%

#14 1.2%

#15 9.6%

#16 9.0%

#17 8.8%

#18 12.2%

#19 12.4%

#20 13.0%

#21 11.1%

#22 7.6%

#23 8.2%

#24 5.4%

#25 1.5%

Tournament invites: 25.1%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#13			0.3%
#14			4.7%
#15			38.3%
#16		1.9%	33.9%
#17	0.3%	17.2%	17.3%
#18	4.1%	35.1%	5.6%
#19	9.5%	30.8%
#20	20.0%	11.9%
#21	20.9%	2.7%
#22	15.0%	0.4%
#23	16.4%
#24	10.9%
#25	3.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.2%	100.0%

Boston University

#12 0.0%

#13 3.6%

#14 5.1%

#15 12.8%

#16 7.3%

#17 8.7%

#18 19.5%

#19 24.9%

#20 13.2%

#21 4.6%

#22 0.4%

Tournament invites: 25.8%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#12			0.0%
#13			14.2%
#14		0.1%	20.2%
#15		1.8%	49.3%
#16		14.4%	14.7%
#17	1.9%	29.5%	1.6%
#18	22.3%	33.5%
#19	40.7%	18.2%
#20	25.1%	2.4%
#21	9.1%	0.1%
#22	0.8%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	3.2%	100.0%

Rensselaer

#13 0.5%

#14 2.7%

#15 13.0%

#16 38.0%

#17 30.2%

#18 14.2%

#19 1.3%

#20 0.1%

Tournament invites: 11.8%

n/a

Alaska

#16 0.3%

#17 3.1%

#18 9.0%

#19 12.4%

#20 13.3%

#21 12.9%

#22 11.6%

#23 14.0%

#24 16.3%

#25 6.7%

#26 0.4%

Tournament invites:

n/a

Cornell

#18 0.4%

#19 3.4%

#20 5.7%

#21 6.4%

#22 14.0%

#23 27.7%

#24 29.0%

#25 13.3%

#26 0.1%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Brown

#16 0.2%

#17 3.7%

#18 8.4%

#19 10.8%

#20 18.1%

#21 20.0%

#22 16.8%

#23 4.7%

#24 5.8%

#25 8.6%

#26 2.8%

#27 0.1%

#28 0.0%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#16			0.7%
#17			15.0%
#18		1.0%	31.9%
#19	0.1%	9.0%	28.2%
#20	5.2%	27.1%	20.4%
#21	14.8%	33.8%	3.8%
#22	17.2%	26.5%	0.0%
#23	10.8%	2.6%
#24	17.3%
#25	25.9%
#26	8.3%
#27	0.3%
#28	0.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Dartmouth

#18 0.1%

#19 2.0%

#20 7.2%

#21 17.5%

#22 30.6%

#23 27.5%

#24 12.4%

#25 2.7%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Robert Morris

#14 0.0%

#15 0.8%

#16 12.5%

#17 28.2%

#18 8.9%

#19 1.9%

#20 3.4%

#21 4.6%

#22 5.3%

#23 8.0%

#24 16.3%

#25 9.4%

#26 0.8%

Tournament invites: 1.1%

n/a

CC

#25 0.9%

#26 5.1%

#27 29.2%

#28 43.7%

#29 17.2%

#30 3.3%

#31 0.5%

#32 0.0%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Ohio State

#17 1.3%

#18 2.7%

#19 4.8%

#20 3.6%

#21 4.5%

#22 5.0%

#23 6.4%

#24 5.1%

#25 3.9%

#26 9.8%

#27 4.2%

#28 17.6%

#29 18.1%

#30 5.2%

#31 6.3%

#32 1.5%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#17			5.0%
#18			10.8%
#19		0.0%	19.0%
#20		0.5%	13.9%
#21		2.5%	15.4%
#22		6.2%	13.6%
#23		12.8%	12.9%
#24		15.3%	5.3%
#25		11.6%	4.1%
#26	0.2%	38.7%
#27	2.3%	12.4%
#28	35.2%
#29	36.3%
#30	10.5%
#31	12.7%
#32	3.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Ferris State

#25 15.4%

#26 47.9%

#27 29.9%

#28 6.1%

#29 0.7%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

St. Lawrence

#25 11.9%

#26 21.7%

#27 34.2%

#28 22.1%

#29 7.0%

#30 2.0%

#31 1.1%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Nebraska-Omaha

#27 0.0%

#28 0.0%

#29 22.8%

#30 28.8%

#31 31.4%

#32 17.0%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Michigan

#21 0.1%

#22 0.3%

#23 1.8%

#24 6.3%

#25 16.1%

#26 0.9%

#27 2.2%

#28 8.6%

#29 11.0%

#30 1.9%

#31 1.3%

#32 0.6%

Non-TUC 49.0%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#21			0.2%
#22			1.1%
#23			7.1%
#24			25.0%
#25			64.3%
#26		1.2%	2.2%
#27		8.9%
#28		34.4%
#29		44.1%
#30		7.8%
#31	1.4%	2.5%
#32	0.6%	1.1%
Non-TUC	98.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Connecticut

#22 0.0%

#23 1.1%

#24 3.4%

#25 9.8%

#26 10.7%

#27 0.0%

#28 0.0%

#29 6.6%

#30 3.7%

#31 8.8%

#32 6.0%

Non-TUC 49.9%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#22			0.1%
#23			4.3%
#24			13.7%
#25			39.1%
#26			42.8%
#27
#28		0.1%
#29		26.4%
#30		14.7%
#31	0.1%	35.0%
#32	0.2%	23.8%
Non-TUC	99.7%	0.0%	0.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Holy Cross

#27 0.1%

#28 1.8%

#29 16.4%

#30 55.1%

#31 26.2%

#32 0.3%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Canisius

Non-TUC 100.0%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
Non-TUC	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Mercyhurst

#32 0.0%

Non-TUC 100.0%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#32			0.1%
Non-TUC	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

jimdahl · March 19, 2013

Friday morning's reading if UND and Wisconsin win

Team

PWR Possibilities

Overall

By number of wins

Quinnipiac

#1 100.0%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#1	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

UMN

#2 100.0%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#2	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Miami

#3 54.0%

#4 32.6%

#5 11.3%

#6 2.0%

#7 0.1%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3	34.8%	46.3%	100.0%
#4	43.6%	43.3%
#5	17.8%	9.6%
#6	3.6%	0.9%
#7	0.2%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Boston College

#3 18.8%

#4 17.0%

#5 22.2%

#6 21.7%

#7 12.7%

#8 5.5%

#9 1.6%

#10 0.4%

#11 0.1%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3			75.0%
#4	11.1%	20.7%	25.0%
#5	23.3%	42.2%
#6	29.1%	28.6%
#7	21.6%	7.7%
#8	10.6%	0.7%
#9	3.1%
#10	0.8%
#11	0.3%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Yale

#3 1.3%

#4 12.4%

#5 13.1%

#6 11.7%

#7 16.8%

#8 12.7%

#9 7.2%

#10 4.4%

#11 3.1%

#12 4.0%

#13 6.0%

#14 5.1%

#15 1.9%

#16 0.3%

#17 0.1%

#18 0.0%

Tournament invites: 96.5%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3			5.0%
#4			49.4%
#5	1.7%	10.9%	32.1%
#6	4.2%	17.7%	11.5%
#7	9.7%	31.3%	1.9%
#8	8.9%	23.4%
#9	8.4%	10.5%
#10	7.3%	4.6%
#11	7.4%	1.4%
#12	11.9%	0.1%
#13	18.1%
#14	15.3%
#15	5.6%
#16	0.9%
#17	0.4%
#18	0.1%
Tournament invites:	89.4%	100.0%	100.0%

Mass.-Lowell

#3 16.9%

#4 8.8%

#5 16.6%

#6 22.5%

#7 22.1%

#8 9.7%

#9 2.9%

#10 0.4%

#11 0.0%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3		1.4%	66.4%
#4		12.9%	22.4%
#5	8.7%	38.6%	10.4%
#6	28.7%	31.8%	0.8%
#7	38.6%	11.3%
#8	17.9%	3.1%
#9	5.3%	0.8%
#10	0.8%	0.1%
#11	0.0%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

UND

#3 4.3%

#4 14.0%

#5 17.9%

#6 23.1%

#7 22.8%

#8 12.7%

#9 3.9%

#10 1.1%

#11 0.3%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3			17.3%
#4		8.7%	47.3%
#5	7.6%	23.1%	33.1%
#6	28.7%	32.8%	2.2%
#7	33.6%	23.8%
#8	20.3%	10.1%
#9	7.1%	1.4%
#10	2.2%
#11	0.5%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

New Hampshire

#6 2.6%

#7 11.0%

#8 34.2%

#9 35.4%

#10 13.2%

#11 3.3%

#12 0.3%

#13 0.0%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

n/a

Notre Dame

#3 4.7%

#4 7.7%

#5 3.1%

#6 1.8%

#7 2.5%

#8 5.0%

#9 10.1%

#10 15.2%

#11 9.2%

#12 5.5%

#13 8.7%

#14 6.1%

#15 9.8%

#16 7.6%

#17 2.4%

#18 0.4%

Tournament invites: 82.6%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3			18.9%
#4			30.7%
#5		1.9%	10.4%
#6		2.6%	4.8%
#7	0.0%	8.3%	1.6%
#8	1.5%	15.0%	1.8%
#9	9.3%	14.5%	7.4%
#10	17.1%	7.7%	19.0%
#11	14.9%	2.0%	5.1%
#12	6.2%	9.5%	0.3%
#13	1.9%	30.9%
#14	8.6%	7.4%
#15	19.5%	0.3%
#16	15.2%	0.0%
#17	4.9%
#18	0.8%
Tournament invites:	65.4%	99.5%	100.0%

Mankato

#6 0.1%

#7 1.4%

#8 8.4%

#9 19.1%

#10 30.2%

#11 26.0%

#12 12.8%

#13 1.9%

#14 0.1%

Tournament invites: 99.6%

n/a

Niagara

#4 3.9%

#5 8.3%

#6 7.6%

#7 5.0%

#8 4.7%

#9 7.6%

#10 8.4%

#11 10.7%

#12 19.6%

#13 21.1%

#14 3.0%

#15 0.2%

Tournament invites: 95.9%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#4			15.5%
#5			33.0%
#6		0.2%	30.4%
#7		3.8%	16.3%
#8	0.0%	14.3%	4.3%
#9	0.3%	29.4%	0.4%
#10	2.0%	29.6%
#11	12.0%	18.8%
#12	37.1%	3.9%
#13	42.2%
#14	6.0%
#15	0.4%
Tournament invites:	91.8%	100.0%	100.0%

SCSU

#4 3.6%

#5 7.6%

#6 6.9%

#7 5.6%

#8 6.6%

#9 8.5%

#10 9.5%

#11 11.6%

#12 16.4%

#13 16.7%

#14 5.9%

#15 1.1%

Tournament invites: 93.8%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#4			14.6%
#5			30.2%
#6		0.7%	26.8%
#7		3.9%	18.6%
#8		19.0%	7.5%
#9	0.4%	31.4%	2.0%
#10	4.2%	29.2%	0.3%
#11	16.3%	13.7%
#12	31.6%	2.1%
#13	33.4%
#14	11.8%
#15	2.3%
Tournament invites:	87.7%	100.0%	100.0%

Denver

#7 0.0%

#8 0.4%

#9 3.6%

#10 16.1%

#11 30.6%

#12 31.7%

#13 16.9%

#14 0.7%

#15 0.0%

Tournament invites: 98.3%

n/a

Western Michigan

#13 11.9%

#14 51.9%

#15 29.9%

#16 6.1%

#17 0.1%

#18 0.0%

Tournament invites: 57.1%

n/a

Union

#8 0.0%

#9 0.1%

#10 0.7%

#11 2.6%

#12 6.5%

#13 9.2%

#14 12.2%

#15 26.3%

#16 24.1%

#17 6.9%

#18 5.0%

#19 3.8%

#20 2.0%

#21 0.4%

#22 0.1%

Tournament invites: 41.3%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#8			0.0%
#9			0.6%
#10			2.7%
#11			10.3%
#12			26.0%
#13		0.5%	36.0%
#14	4.4%	11.2%	24.3%
#15	21.3%	46.1%
#16	25.1%	37.9%
#17	15.3%	4.3%
#18	15.1%
#19	11.4%
#20	5.9%
#21	1.2%
#22	0.3%
Tournament invites:	14.9%	27.1%	100.0%

UW

#10 0.4%

#11 2.5%

#12 3.3%

#13 5.1%

#14 9.3%

#15 7.0%

#16 8.9%

#17 14.8%

#18 23.4%

#19 15.8%

#20 7.4%

#21 2.0%

#22 0.1%

Tournament invites: 27.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#10			1.5%
#11			10.1%
#12			13.3%
#13			20.6%
#14		2.0%	35.0%
#15		11.8%	16.2%
#16	0.1%	32.2%	3.2%
#17	16.2%	27.0%
#18	36.2%	21.3%
#19	29.0%	5.1%
#20	14.5%	0.6%
#21	3.9%
#22	0.2%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	7.9%	100.0%

Providence

#13 0.0%

#14 0.8%

#15 5.1%

#16 6.7%

#17 9.1%

#18 9.0%

#19 14.7%

#20 18.4%

#21 14.0%

#22 10.3%

#23 7.6%

#24 3.2%

#25 1.2%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#13			0.1%
#14			3.2%
#15			20.3%
#16		1.1%	25.5%
#17	0.1%	4.5%	31.8%
#18	3.2%	16.7%	12.7%
#19	11.4%	31.6%	4.5%
#20	20.7%	30.3%	1.9%
#21	21.0%	14.2%	0.0%
#22	19.8%	1.6%
#23	15.1%	0.0%
#24	6.4%
#25	2.3%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.2%	100.0%

Boston University

#12 0.0%

#13 2.4%

#14 4.0%

#15 11.2%

#16 9.6%

#17 9.5%

#18 12.9%

#19 22.2%

#20 17.9%

#21 8.7%

#22 1.4%

Tournament invites: 25.9%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#12			0.0%
#13			9.7%
#14		0.6%	15.5%
#15		3.3%	41.6%
#16		16.7%	21.9%
#17		29.4%	8.6%
#18	9.7%	29.5%	2.7%
#19	36.1%	16.6%
#20	34.0%	3.7%
#21	17.4%	0.1%
#22	2.8%	0.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	3.6%	100.0%

Rensselaer

#14 0.8%

#15 5.8%

#16 19.1%

#17 29.4%

#18 27.6%

#19 13.3%

#20 3.5%

#21 0.6%

Tournament invites: 5.5%

n/a

Alaska

#16 0.5%

#17 3.7%

#18 8.1%

#19 13.6%

#20 16.2%

#21 14.8%

#22 13.7%

#23 13.8%

#24 10.3%

#25 4.8%

#26 0.5%

Tournament invites:

n/a

Cornell

#19 0.9%

#20 2.7%

#21 4.7%

#22 9.3%

#23 24.4%

#24 34.1%

#25 21.7%

#26 2.3%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Brown

#16 0.0%

#17 0.6%

#18 4.0%

#19 9.9%

#20 18.2%

#21 25.9%

#22 18.4%

#23 6.2%

#24 5.7%

#25 6.8%

#26 3.4%

#27 0.8%

#28 0.1%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#16			0.0%
#17			2.6%
#18			15.8%
#19	0.5%	5.1%	30.5%
#20	6.0%	23.8%	24.9%
#21	13.7%	38.3%	21.7%
#22	13.8%	30.4%	4.5%
#23	15.5%	2.4%
#24	17.1%
#25	20.4%
#26	10.3%
#27	2.4%
#28	0.2%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Dartmouth

#19 1.3%

#20 7.1%

#21 19.8%

#22 33.4%

#23 26.4%

#24 10.8%

#25 1.2%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Robert Morris

#14 0.0%

#15 1.7%

#16 17.1%

#17 23.3%

#18 7.1%

#19 1.4%

#20 1.4%

#21 3.3%

#22 5.0%

#23 7.7%

#24 16.3%

#25 12.2%

#26 3.5%

Tournament invites: 1.6%

n/a

CC

#25 0.8%

#26 6.7%

#27 26.8%

#28 44.2%

#29 14.7%

#30 5.4%

#31 1.3%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Ohio State

#18 2.4%

#19 3.0%

#20 5.5%

#21 5.6%

#22 6.9%

#23 8.2%

#24 4.5%

#25 2.8%

#26 8.8%

#27 5.6%

#28 15.8%

#29 17.8%

#30 7.2%

#31 6.0%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#18			9.5%
#19			12.0%
#20		0.3%	21.5%
#21		2.5%	19.8%
#22		10.8%	16.8%
#23		19.0%	13.6%
#24		14.0%	4.1%
#25		8.6%	2.7%
#26	0.5%	34.3%
#27	6.0%	10.5%
#28	31.6%
#29	35.5%
#30	14.4%
#31	12.1%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Ferris State

#25 18.8%

#26 48.5%

#27 27.3%

#28 4.9%

#29 0.5%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

St. Lawrence

#24 0.1%

#25 9.1%

#26 18.5%

#27 36.3%

#28 21.2%

#29 9.8%

#30 3.3%

#31 1.8%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Nebraska-Omaha

#29 11.5%

#30 27.6%

#31 40.2%

#32 20.6%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Michigan

#21 0.0%

#22 0.4%

#23 3.4%

#24 8.9%

#25 12.1%

#26 1.0%

#27 2.6%

#28 8.1%

#29 11.3%

#30 1.4%

#31 3.5%

#32 1.5%

Non-TUC 45.8%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#21			0.1%
#22			1.7%
#23			13.4%
#24			35.5%
#25			48.5%
#26		3.3%	0.8%
#27		10.4%
#28		32.4%
#29		45.2%
#30		5.6%
#31	5.4%	3.1%
#32	2.9%
Non-TUC	91.6%	0.0%	0.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Connecticut

#21 0.2%

#22 0.9%

#23 2.5%

#24 6.2%

#25 8.6%

#26 6.7%

#27 0.0%

#28 0.0%

#29 5.4%

#30 5.7%

#31 9.5%

#32 4.4%

Non-TUC 50.0%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#21			0.7%
#22			3.5%
#23			9.8%
#24			24.8%
#25			34.5%
#26			26.7%
#27
#28
#29		21.6%
#30		22.6%
#31		38.1%
#32		17.6%
Non-TUC	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Holy Cross

#26 0.0%

#27 0.6%

#28 5.7%

#29 28.9%

#30 49.4%

#31 15.3%

Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Canisius

Non-TUC 100.0%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
Non-TUC	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Mercyhurst

#32 0.0%

Non-TUC 100.0%

Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#32			0.0%
Non-TUC	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

I Ranger · March 19, 2013

Jim, based on your calculations it looks like Niagra is basically a lock. Looks like there will be a ton of interest in the Atlantic hockey tourney this weekend and a whole lot of Niagra fans except for Quinnipiac as they would most likely get the autobid if Niagra doesn't win.

LeftyZL · March 19, 2013

All I know is that if Michigan runs the table and wins their tourney, there is going to be one very pissed Gopher hockey team on Sunday night.

I can hardly wait.

runaroundsioux · March 19, 2013

My head just exploded.

The Sicatoka · March 19, 2013

Jim, based on your calculations it looks like Niagra is basically a lock.

I'd say Niagara fans are UND and Mankato fans on Thursday. If those two win, Niagara goes to 96%+ chance of being in even if they don't win in their conference tourney.

So, the Purple Eagles are fans of the Purple Cows on Thursday afternoon.

sagard · March 19, 2013

All I know is that if Michigan runs the table and wins their tourney, there is going to be one very pissed Gopher hockey team on Sunday night.

I can hardly wait.

Those dirty skunks will be ripe for a 1st round whipping at the hands of Goldy if they should survive their playoffs. No matter who it ends up being, I don't see it being an easy game.

The Sicatoka · March 19, 2013

Those dirty skunks ...

The "skunks" are from Madison, not Ann Arbor. Here's one dressed in a popcorn box.

Wilbur · March 19, 2013

Those dirty skunks will be ripe for a 1st round whipping at the hands of Goldy if they should survive their playoffs. No matter who it ends up being, I don't see it being an easy game.

No more first round bye games or cakewalks as per say. #1 Seeds losing to #4 seeds doesn't cause the shock and awe it used to, nor should it.

Wouldn't want Michigan right away....yuck.

siouxweet · March 20, 2013

hypotheticaly speaking. say und runs the table this weekend and ends up being the fourth number one seed. in the past five years or so the committee has "protected" the top two seeds from playing against host teams. where I'm going with this is if michigan were to win the CCHA and get into the tournament don't be surprised if UND gets stuck in grand rapids playing them in the first round and minnesota goes to toledo and miami really get screwed going to manchester. obviously a lot would need to happen for this to even be a converstation and I think miami puts an end to this on sat afternoon knocking off michigan.

Wilbur · March 20, 2013

hypotheticaly speaking. say und runs the table this weekend and ends up being the fourth number one seed. in the past five years or so the committee has "protected" the top two seeds from playing against host teams. where I'm going with this is if michigan were to win the CCHA and get into the tournament don't be surprised if UND gets stuck in grand rapids playing them in the first round and minnesota goes to toledo and miami really get screwed going to manchester. obviously a lot would need to happen for this to even be a converstation and I think miami puts an end to this on sat afternoon knocking off michigan.

A lot depends on where the NC$$ sends Miami. They aren't the host of that Ohio regional, but at the same time they are almost assured of being there as a #1 if the NC$$ stayed with protocol, and obviously they'll make more money if Miami is there.

New Hampshire is the northeast regional host, but won't be a number one seed (likely a 2). Will the NC$$ send BC there if they are the lower 1 seed than Quinnipiac? (Sending UND to a possible East Regional in R.I. as a #2 to meet Quinnipiac?)

Smarter rankers than I will have their say. But if you ask me, goldy goes to the Michigan regional if they are a 1 seed.

Wilbur · March 20, 2013

Double Post......would love to see......In Michigan, with two WCHA teams because hopefully five get in.

1. Minnesota

2. Umass-Lowell

3. SCSU

4. Michigan

Frozen4sioux · March 20, 2013

As much as I like playing with the brackets...after last yearvwhen UND went from being outside the bubble to a 1 seed in three days .....it almost seems completely pointless to speculate. ...

....but it is fun.

NorthDakotaHockey · March 20, 2013

Michigan is not going to win the CCHA. They stink. They have sucked all year long and an opening round victory will not a season make.

Wow, it also sure will suck for those who will claim to be Big Ten Hockey Conference supporters next year. Some real solid performances in that league this year, save for Minnesota.

Cheap tickets outside the door at The John all season long. Don had better load as many Bemidji, Mankato, St. Cloud, and Duluth games at home as he can to offset the poor gates for PSU, OSU, MSU, and maybe even Red's vaulted bums from that old hosebag Ann Arbor.

Siouxman · March 20, 2013

Michigan is not going to win the CCHA. They stink. They have sucked all year long and an opening round victory will not a season make.

Wow, it also sure will suck for those who will claim to be Big Ten Hockey Conference supporters next year. Some real solid performances in that league this year, save for Minnesota.

Cheap tickets outside the door at The John all season long. Don had better load as many Bemidji, Mankato, St. Cloud, and Duluth games at home as he can to offset the poor gates for PSU, OSU, MSU, and maybe even Red's vaulted bums from that old hosebag Ann Arbor.

Come on, NDH, let us know how you really feel. See you at Hoggsbreath Friday!

MafiaMan · March 20, 2013

Michigan is not going to win the CCHA. They stink. They have sucked all year long and an opening round victory will not a season make.

image_thumb7.png?w=490

Michigan has won 8 in a row and 10 of their last 12. After a sweep at the hands of Western Michigan at the end of January (2-3 and 1-5), they reversed the tables in the first round of the CCHA playoffs, beating the Broncos 4-3 on Friday night and then SMOKED the defending CCHA playoff champions 5-1 on Saturday night. The Wolverines have not played Miami since October and will face them Saturday afternoon at Joe Louis Arena in front of a nice partisan maize and blue crowd. I've got Michigan winning Saturday...but closer than the experts think.

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