Spring 2011 PWR discussion

[Runninwiththedogs]

Blues play Thurs. night vs. Oilers (I believe). West regional Fri./ Sat.

Sweet! Who knows, if tUMD and UW ended up being 2 seeds we could be there too.

[farce poobah]

One of the great stories out East is Merrimack, who's now up to #5 or #6 depending on which website you look at. With an OT sweep tonight against UNH, and the fact tonights game was played without their leading scorer da Costa, they are on a roll. Not out of the question that they sneak into a #1 if the WCHA teams lose any momentum.

Over on USCHO, Redwing8831 has an interesting scenario which sends Wisconsin out East ...

http://board.uscho.com/showthread.php?92167-Too-early-for-the-PWR-Princeton-and-Brown-say-no!&p=5030843&viewfull=1#post5030843

Oh - and one other interesting observation is just 3 CCHA teams would make it in ... Miami, Notre Dame and Michigan. This maybe speeds the desire of some to flee the CCHA in favor of a Big Ten Hockey conference.

Still, I'm singing "Meet Me In St Louis" for the NCAA Regionals. Not just because I like the idea of playing on neutral ice (not road ice which would be the case at the other 3 regionals), but because its a manageable trip / drive from the Twin Cities.

[Goon]

One of the great stories out East is Merrimack, who's now up to #5 or #6 depending on which website you look at. With an OT sweep tonight against UNH, and the fact tonights game was played without their leading scorer da Costa, they are on a roll. Not out of the question that they sneak into a #1 if the WCHA teams lose any momentum.

Over on USCHO, Redwing8831 has an interesting scenario which sends Wisconsin out East ...

http://board.uscho.com/showthread.php?92167-Too-early-for-the-PWR-Princeton-and-Brown-say-no!&p=5030843&viewfull=1#post5030843

Oh - and one other interesting observation is just 3 CCHA teams would make it in ... Miami, Notre Dame and Michigan. This maybe speeds the desire of some to flee the CCHA in favor of a Big Ten Hockey conference.

Still, I'm singing "Meet Me In St Louis" for the NCAA Regionals. Not just because I like the idea of playing on neutral ice (not road ice which would be the case at the other 3 regionals), but because its a manageable trip / drive from the Twin Cities.

I think right now if the NCAA started today the EZAC would have like four teams in the tourney - Yale, Union, RPI, Dartmouth and they very well could be all out of the tourney after the first round. Wisconsin has only one win against ranked teams they are 1-9-2, that's why they dropped so far after loss on Saturday. Minnesota is at 19th all of a sudde n.

Edited February 13, 2011 by Goon

[fargosioux]

I think right now if the NCAA started today the EZAC would have like four teams in the tourney - Yale, Union, RPI, Dartmouth and they very well could be all out of the tourney after the first round. Wisconsin has only one win against ranked teams they are 1-9-2, that's why they dropped so far after loss on Saturday. Minnesota is at 19th all of a sudden.

Now that they helped us out last night, let's hope they start dropping games again. Last thing I want to see is Minnesota sneak into the tournament.

[yzerman19]

Straight up bracket integrity this morning-

Yale vs RIT

UNO vs UNH

BC vs WI

Union vs Michigan

DU vs Dartmouth

Merrimack vs Notre Dame

UND vs Rensellaer

UMD vs Miami

No intraconference first rounders, so that is a good start.

First thing they'll do is split up Yale and UNH, as they are both hosts. They will swap UNH and Michigan to solve that problem. They will then send #1 seeds closest to home in order of actual seeding

Bridgeport

Yale vs RIT

UNO vs Michigan

Manchester

BC vs WI

Union vs UNH

Green Bay

UND vs Rensellaer

UMD vs Miami

St Louis

DU vs Dartmouth

Merrimack vs Notre Dame

We've got a regional in Wisconsin, and Wisconsin in Manchester. This is an attendance problem and if the season ended today would seriously impact the integrity of the seeding. I would swap BC and WI with DU and Dartmouth, and put Wisconsin in Wisconsin.

Bridgeport

Yale vs RIT

UNO vs Michigan

Manchester

DU vs Dartmouth

Union vs UNH

Green Bay

BC vs Wisconsin

Merrimack vs Notre Dame

St Louis

UND vs Rensellaer

UMD vs Miami

Denver was flying no matter what, so going to Manchester isn't a big deal, bracket integrity is pretty much preserved, attendance should be pretty darn good. Only team that is mad is BC having to travel a long way and play Wisconsin in Wisconsin...sounds like the old Michigan Yost rules...BC has been on a heck of a run. If they win again, let's have them earn it by going on the road and beating Bucky in cheeseland.

[fargosioux]

Straight up bracket integrity this morning-

Yale vs RIT

UNO vs UNH

BC vs WI

Union vs Michigan

DU vs Dartmouth

Merrimack vs Notre Dame

UND vs Rensellaer

UMD vs Miami

No intraconference first rounders, so that is a good start.

First thing they'll do is split up Yale and UNH, as they are both hosts. They will swap UNH and Michigan to solve that problem. They will then send #1 seeds closest to home in order of actual seeding

Bridgeport

Yale vs RIT

UNO vs Michigan

Manchester

BC vs WI

Union vs UNH

Green Bay

UND vs Rensellaer

UMD vs Miami

St Louis

DU vs Dartmouth

Merrimack vs Notre Dame

We've got a regional in Wisconsin, and Wisconsin in Manchester. This is an attendance problem and if the season ended today would seriously impact the integrity of the seeding. I would swap BC and WI with DU and Dartmouth, and put Wisconsin in Wisconsin.

Bridgeport

Yale vs RIT

UNO vs Michigan

Manchester

DU vs Dartmouth

Union vs UNH

Green Bay

BC vs Wisconsin

Merrimack vs Notre Dame

St Louis

UND vs Rensellaer

UMD vs Miami

Denver was flying no matter what, so going to Manchester isn't a big deal, bracket integrity is pretty much preserved, attendance should be pretty darn good. Only team that is mad is BC having to travel a long way and play Wisconsin in Wisconsin...sounds like the old Michigan Yost rules...BC has been on a heck of a run. If they win again, let's have them earn it by going on the road and beating Bucky in cheeseland.

Can't see the committee sending BC out West if they finish #2 overall.

[Oxbow6]

Can't see the committee sending BC out West if they finish #2 overall.

I tend to agree but it would be nice to see that happen though.

[The Whistler]

It's irrelevant for everything but bragging rights, but I see UND has moved into #1 on the KRACH.

[yzerman19]

I tend to agree but it would be nice to see that happen though.

You can't have Wisconsin in and not playing in Green Bay and you can't have an intraconference first round matchup, and you can't move Yale out of Bridgeport...this means serious problems (why I mentioned the fowling up brackets issue).

I'm sure college hockey would love to have a UNH and BC regional final in Manchester, a Yale and Union regional final in Bridgeport, a Wisconsin and Michigan regional in GreenBay and a UND vs Miami regional final in St Louis

[Fighting Sioux 23]

What everyone is overlooking is the fact that we don't know how two teams tied are separated in PWR. While everyone is assuming RPI (that's how they separate with 3 teams), the committee could very well look at the tie between Denver and Merrimack and determine that Merrimack is the last #1 seed since they win the individual comparison between the two teams. If that's the case, then things clear up a bit...

Bridgeport:

#1 Yale vs #16 AH Champ

#7 Union vs #10 Michigan

Manchester:

#2 BC vs #14 RPI

#8 UNO vs #9 UNH

Green Bay:

#4 Merrimack vs #15 Wisconsin

#6 UMD vs #11 Miami

St. Louis:

#3 UND vs #13 Dartmouth

#5 Denver vs #12 Notre Dame

Green Bay gets Wisconsin and UMD, St. Louis gets UND and a "big name" in Notre Dame (also Notre Dame can bus to St. Louis), and Bridgeport and Manchaster obviously get their host.

[Oxbow6]

Moys' Bracketology is up on USCHO.com. Very odd brackets this week. Has UND in Green Bay playing Renssilaer with Michigan vs. UNO. WI and UMD are in Manchester with BC and Denver is in St. Louis. From an attendence perspective, this is about as poor of brackets imaginable. WI not in Green Bay? Who is going to go watch in St. Louis?

I heard from a credible source close to the UND hockey program last week that he would totally shocked if UND was NOT sent to St. Louis. UND would be the biggest draw there period and attendance is going to be poor even with UND there. Have WI not play in Green Bay makes no sense. Ship Denver anywhere...their 100 fans would have to fly regardless.

First time in a while I've seen Moy's brackets and just scratched my head.

Edited February 16, 2011 by Oxbow6

[fargosioux]

Moys' Bracketology is up on USCHO.com. Very odd brackets this week. Has UND in Green Bay playing Renssilaer with Michigan vs. UNO. WI and UMD are in Manchester with BC and Denver is in St. Louis. From an attendence perspective, this is about as poor of brackets imaginable. WI not in Green Bay? Who is going to go watch in St. Louis?

I heard from a credible source close to the UND hockey program last week that he would totally shocked if UND was sent to St. Louis. UND would be the biggest draw here period and attendence is going to be poor even with UND there. Have WI not play in Green Bay makes no sense. Ship Denver anywhere...their 100 fans would have to fly regardless.

First time in a while I've seen Moy's brackets and just scratched my head.

Madison isn't a horrible distance from St. Louis. According to Google maps, it's 363 miles. What is the current NCAA mileage threshold. It used to be 400 miles, didn't it?

I agree, from an attendance standpoint, it makes the most sense to send Wisconsin to Green Bay, but if the seedings make it difficult, I think St. Louis would be an option for Wisconsin to keep them fairly close.

[stickboy1956]

Moys' Bracketology is up on USCHO.com. Very odd brackets this week. Has UND in Green Bay playing Renssilaer with Michigan vs. UNO. WI and UMD are in Manchester with BC and Denver is in St. Louis. From an attendence perspective, this is about as poor of brackets imaginable. WI not in Green Bay? Who is going to go watch in St. Louis?

I heard from a credible source close to the UND hockey program last week that he would totally shocked if UND was NOT sent to St. Louis. UND would be the biggest draw there period and attendance is going to be poor even with UND there. Have WI not play in Green Bay makes no sense. Ship Denver anywhere...their 100 fans would have to fly regardless.

First time in a while I've seen Moy's brackets and just scratched my head.

Moy must assume that attendance is not king - that you can't ignore bracket integrity and ship Wisco to Green Bay, no matter the Pairwise.

A #1 seed shouldn't be placed in Regional where they have to play an defacto road game against a 4 seed that is not an official host.

I agree with Moy that attendance will be a factor, but not the main factor, in determining pairings.

It could all be moot if Bucky keeps playing like it did last weekend - and no - the "committee" will not find a way to get Wisco in the tournament no matter what so it can play in Green Bay.

I hope we all have been educated enough to know that there is no wiggle in the criteria that determines the 16 teams in the tournament.

[jimdahl]

PWR forecast for the weekend

Outlook for the final six games

[The Whistler]

PWR forecast for the weekend

Outlook for the final six games

Looks like we're sure to get to the Frozen Four. Any chance I can get into the Sioux Sports Suite?

[jimdahl]

Looks like we're sure to get to the Frozen Four. Any chance I can get into the Sioux Sports Suite?

Looks like we're for sure going to make the tournament... making the Frozen Four involves a couple tournament wins, which have proven elusive for UND lately.

[Runninwiththedogs]

Looks like we're for sure going to make the tournament... making the Frozen Four involves a couple tournament wins, which have proven elusive for UND lately.

You didn't include the WCHA playoff postseason though.

[The Whistler]

Looks like we're for sure going to make the tournament... making the Frozen Four involves a couple tournament wins, which have proven elusive for UND lately.

OK, then a couple playoff wins and I get in the Sioux Sports suite.

Sweet!

Just don't let goon in. He'll eat all of the fancy finger food you're paying for.

[jimdahl]

OK, then a couple playoff wins and I get in the Sioux Sports suite.

I've thought about it (moreso when it was in D.C. than the Twin Cities), but you have to commit before you know what teams will be there, and I just don't need that kind of space unless I know there will be plenty of Sioux fans While I did manage to find my way into a suite last time the FF was in the Twin Cities, I was, alas, a mere guest.

You didn't include the WCHA playoff postseason though.

Because that's hard. Each conference has its own tournament structure, way to break ties, etc... Implementing that has been in the middle of my to-do list forever, but has never bubbled to the top.

Part of that is because the conference tournaments *generally* only provide upside opportunity. Except for the WCHA play-in round, they're one-and-done, so the worst each participant can do is 1 loss and some number of wins. This time of year we're generally concerned about whether a team will make the tournament or not, so the focus is on how low they can fall. Once the conference tournaments are seeded, I run a complete breakdown of all of the possible outcomes, which usually contains a few surprises.

[Runninwiththedogs]

Because that's hard. Each conference has its own tournament structure, way to break ties, etc... Implementing that has been in the middle of my to-do list forever, but has never bubbled to the top.

Part of that is because the conference tournaments *generally* only provide upside opportunity. Except for the WCHA play-in round, they're one-and-done, so the worst each participant can do is 1 loss and some number of wins. This time of year we're generally concerned about whether a team will make the tournament or not, so the focus is on how low they can fall. Once the conference tournaments are seeded, I run a complete breakdown of all of the possible outcomes, which usually contains a few surprises.

Oh, I'm sure. Really the only reason you might have a problem is if your zero wins scenario came true plus you had a brutal playoff. I was just giving you a hard time.

[jimdahl]

Saturday update of the Weekend PWR Ranking Outlook

Games to watch

One biggie, no surprise:

Northeastern over Boston College — a single win by Northeastern would help UND overtake B.C. (BC’s lead is a mere .0001 in RPI)

Others with a more minor impact:

Massachusetts over Merrimack — a pure defensive play. I don’t see an obvious way for UND to take back the comparison with Merrimack this weekend. However, if UND faltered, Merrimack could overtake UND in comparisons won and PWR.

New Hampshire over Vermont — I honestly can’t figure out in which scenarios this matters, but it does.

MTech over Denver — prevent Denver from overtaking UND if the Sioux falter.

Princeton over Yale — for Yale to lose the top spot this weekend, they have to lose to Princeton.

Things that went UND's way:

The big one sort of hit... B.C. tied last night. That was enough to flip the RPI comparison in UND's favor and let UND rise to #2 in PWR, despite also delivering a tie.

Upset special -- MTech did take Denver, which provides a little breathing room underneath UND.

UNH beat Vermont, I still don't know why that mattered.

Things that didn't:

Merrimack won. Merrimack is becoming the surprise team to keep an eye on. A win tonight could flip their comparison with Union (on the basis of RPI), allowing them to tie UND in comparisons won. Though UND has the edge in RPI, Merrimack will leave the weekend winning the individual comparison with UND.

Yale crushed Quinnipiac. Expected, and no biggie.

[The Whistler]

Yale crushed Quinnipiac.

So maybe Yale is a legitimate #1.

[fargosioux]

So how much does our competition the next two weekends hurt our RPI and PWR? I don't have a good handle on how RPI is calculated. Do wins against these teams drop our RPI enough to make us drop?

[siouxweet]

So how much does our competition the next two weekends hurt our RPI and PWR? I don't have a good handle on how RPI is calculated. Do wins against these teams drop our RPI enough to make us drop?

as long as we win our rpi will stay the same or rise a little bit. if a win against say tech would drop our rpi that game would not be counted in rpi. on the other hand any loss in the next 4 games will drop our rpi big time.

[ecj]

So how much does our competition the next two weekends hurt our RPI and PWR? I don't have a good handle on how RPI is calculated. Do wins against these teams drop our RPI enough to make us drop?

If you'd like to learn more, here's a very thorough primer on how the NCAA tournament works, including a description of the pairwise comparison system and all the stats involved.

"RPI: The RPI was created by the NCAA in the late 1970s, originally to help the basketball selection committee. It's a method of adjusting for the varying strengths of schedule of the different teams. The number is computed from the following three components: 1. A team's own winning percentage (25%); 2. The average of the team's opponents' winning percentages (50%); 3. The average of the team's opponents opponents' winning percentages (25%)."