Oil Booms in North Dakota

[mg2009]

It could come true if Fargo leaders include growth in all sections of Fargo not just south Fargo. Lots of empty commercial space up north but they only continue to build and develop on the southside. 25 years to double in size with the population boom out west is possible, lots of jobs available all around town, I think the housing will be a problem to accomadate that size.

I'd love it if they would redevelop around island park.  The northeast and west sides a hugely under utilized.  Some 5-10 floor mixed use and you'd have a place that I would love to live.  The area west of downtown should be redeveloped as well, having salvage yards in the middle of town is a huge waste of valuable land.

 

Most importantly, Moorhead needs to move the Crystal Sugar plant.  It hems in the entire north side.

[SiouxVolley]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2014/09/19/north-dakota-has-had-the-lowest-state-unemployment-rate-for-69-months-and-counting/

 

North Dakota has the lowest unemployment rate for nearly six years running.

 

[darell1976]

I'd love it if they would redevelop around island park. The northeast and west sides a hugely under utilized. Some 5-10 floor mixed use and you'd have a place that I would love to live. The area west of downtown should be redeveloped as well, having salvage yards in the middle of town is a huge waste of valuable land.

Most importantly, Moorhead needs to move the Crystal Sugar plant. It hems in the entire north side.

Very true. Moorhead needs to fix that damn train traffic and their traffic lights. I hate driving through Moorhead.

[SiouxVolley]

The NDSU College of Engineering announced the creation of the Center of Quality, Reliability and Maintainability Engineering. The new center will allow NDSU students and faculty to work with industry partners to improve product quality and reliability and to optimize maintenance plans.

 

- See more at: http://www.prairiebizmag.com/event/article/id/20908/#sthash.tXDEyMpq.dpuf

 

NDSU's latest attempt to hone into the Bakken, where UND has a big lead.  Dropping Petroleum Engineering major ten years ago has to be one of the all time NDSU boneheaded decisions.  The again, they don't have capable instructors in geology or reservoirs.  Their geology department is just glorified geology.  NDSUs mindset will be good if put to use on a maintenance plan.

[SiouxVolley]

http://online.wsj.com/articles/dangers-aside-railways-reshape-crude-market-1411353150

[SiouxVolley]

OneOK announces their 10th natural gas plant, this one in NW Dunn county.  Each plant averages about $400 mill to build and OneOK will have processing capability for 1.2 billion cfd in North Dakota, which is world class for a gas field.  Although OneOK doesn't cover Mountrail County (Hess and a couple others provide gas processing there), the gas infrastructure in ND is finally starting to close the gap.  But many more plants will have to be built, as the Bakken oil wells increase their natural gas release rate with time.

 

http://www.oneokpartners.com/~/media/ONEOKPartners/ReleaseAttachments/Bakken_BearCreek.ashx

[Cratter]

http://www.inforum.com/content/growth-dakota-what-can-state-expect-decline-turns-boom

 

 

The projection assumed much of the growth would happen in the Oil Patch. Indeed, it projected that, in 2025, the state’s most populous half will be the west and not the east as it is now.

 

The 2012 projection showed Fargo and West Fargo growing about 23 percent between 2010 and 2025, continuing to remain the state’s most populous urban area.

 

[SiouxVolley]

http://www.inforum.com/content/growth-dakota-what-can-state-expect-decline-turns-boom

Didn't know Tu-Uyen Tran moved to the Forum.  Last I heard he was the night editor of the Herald or some thing.

 

If the Oil Patch exceeds eastern ND in population, the football recruiting from the patch will be more like Texas-Oklahoma at skill positions with the east still OL and LBs.  Pretty good combo for football recruiting.

[Cratter]

Didn't know Tu-Uyen Tran moved to the Forum.  Last I heard he was the night editor of the Herald or some thing.

 

 

 

I saw that too. First I noticed it.

[SiouxVolley]

According to the Washington Post, the Fort Berthold Reservation has become a drug and crime infected hellhole.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2014/09/28/dark-side-of-the-boom/

 

This article says that the Fort Berthold reservation received $131 million in oil revenue last year.  Of course, a lot of that goes to pay for new roads and schools, but why hasn't the reservation built any recreation or swimming centers in places like New Town, Parshall, Mandaree, White Shield, Twin Buttes?  Oil towns like Watford City,  Killdeer, Crosby, and Tioga seem capable to do that with less money.  But instead, Fort Berthold's leadership spends money for yachts on Lake Sakakawea for gamblers.  No wonder the reservation voted out Tex Hall for corruption.

 

http://fuelfix.com/blog/2014/04/23/north-dakota-tribes-oil-output-rivals-us-states/

 

The following article for the Atlantic doesn't paint a pretty picture either, with losers flooding in from other states taking their bad habits with them, but at least it shows examples of behavior where some people come out of the Bakken as big winners if they have the moral fiber to do the right thing.

 

http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2014/09/searching-for-the-good-life-in-the-bakken-oil-fields/380677/

[NDSU grad]

According to the Washington Post, the Fort Berthold Reservation has become a drug and crime infected hellhole.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2014/09/28/dark-side-of-the-boom/

 

This article says that the Fort Berthold reservation received $131 million in oil revenue last year.  Of course, a lot of that goes to pay for new roads and schools, but why hasn't the reservation built any recreation or swimming centers in places like New Town, Parshall, Mandaree, White Shield, Twin Buttes?  Oil towns like Watford City,  Killdeer, Crosby, and Tioga seem capable to do that with less money.  But instead, Fort Berthold's leadership spends money for yachts on Lake Sakakawea for gamblers.  No wonder the reservation voted out Tex Hall for corruption.

 

http://fuelfix.com/blog/2014/04/23/north-dakota-tribes-oil-output-rivals-us-states/

 

The following article for the Atlantic doesn't paint a pretty picture either, with losers flooding in from other states taking their bad habits with them, but at least it shows examples of behavior where some people come out of the Bakken as big winners if they have the moral fiber to do the right thing.

 

http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2014/09/searching-for-the-good-life-in-the-bakken-oil-fields/380677/

The reservation has always been a hellhole.  There's just more people there now.

[The Sicatoka]

The reservation has always been a hellhole.  There's just more people there now.

 

Was that hostile and abusive?  

[NDSU grad]

Was that hostile and abusive?

No, just the truth.

[SiouxVolley]

Saudi Arabia looks to start a price war because of shale oil.  Oil could go down to $70 a barrel.  

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102053966#.

 

That could slow down oil drilling in the Bakken, but most of the oil companies are hedged, so the major effect wouldn't be til later.

 

The production cost is down to $37/b in McKenzie County, but in other Bakken Counties it is more like $70/b.  Likely that Watford City would barely slow down, but as you get away from Watford City, the economics aren't nearly as good.

[choyt3]

Saudi Arabia looks to start a price war because of shale oil.  Oil could go down to $70 a barrel.  

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102053966#.

 

That could slow down oil drilling in the Bakken, but most of the oil companies are hedged, so the major effect wouldn't be til later.

 

The production cost is down to $37/b in McKenzie County, but in other Bakken Counties it is more like $70/b.  Likely that Watford City would barely slow down, but as you get away from Watford City, the economics aren't nearly as good.

Just curious as to why the big difference in production costs.

[SiouxVolley]

Just curious as to why the big difference in production costs.

McKenzie County delivers excellent wells for the Bakken and all of the Three Forks Benches.  Most of the rest of the counties may have one or two good layers, but not five.  Oil companies are often drilling 16 or more wells in one spot in McKenzie County, which seriously cuts down on capital costs as the rigs don't have to move and a oil company can use the same mineral rights for all five layers, so the extra layers didn't require added mineral right expense (depends on when they bought the mineral rights - early on, it was the assumption that only the Middle Bakken would have viable wells).

[darell1976]

Saudi Arabia looks to start a price war because of shale oil. Oil could go down to $70 a barrel.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102053966#.

That could slow down oil drilling in the Bakken, but most of the oil companies are hedged, so the major effect wouldn't be til later.

The production cost is down to $37/b in McKenzie County, but in other Bakken Counties it is more like $70/b. Likely that Watford City would barely slow down, but as you get away from Watford City, the economics aren't nearly as good.

So if oil drops to 70 what's the chances gas prices drop to under 3 or even hover around 2 dollars a gallon?

[choyt3]

So if oil drops to 70 what's the chances gas prices drop to under 3 or even hover around 2 dollars a gallon?

My opinion is Zero. We are already conditioned to pay the higher prices. Lower production costs for gasoline will result in higher profit margins and will have little effect on the end user.

[SiouxVolley]

The US passing Saudi Arabia in oil production soon makes the world aware of North Dakota.

 

 

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/10/07/north-dakota-and-texas-have-effectively-joined-opec-a-new-era-of-oil-abundance/?__lsa=4b7e-979e

That may change if oil prices slide another US$10 or so. Not only will that squeeze budgets from Caracas to Moscow, but U.S. drillers would probably curb activity in the event of a “sustained pullback” below US$80 a barrel, analysts at Baird Energy wrote in a report on Monday.

“US shale oil after all is not just the newest and biggest source of supply, but also high cost and most responsive to oil prices,” said McNally. “North Dakota and Texas have effectively joined OPEC, though they may not have realized it yet.”

 

[SiouxVolley]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/keystone-darned-canada-finds-oil-020000251.html

 

Looks like Canada has come up with an alternative to get oil sands out of Alberta:  converting a nat gas pipeline from Alberta to Ontario to oil use, and then building a new oil pipeline through Quebec and to a port at St.John, New Brunswick.  Canada wants to be an energy superpower, and this will help get them there.  So all the environmental protests by so called Nebraska farmers and all the delays by the Obama administration which badly hurt Canadians dreams go for naught.  The railroads won't get a further added load from Alberta tar sands.  Warren Buffet must be pissed.

[darell1976]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/keystone-darned-canada-finds-oil-020000251.html

 

Looks like Canada has come up with an alternative to get oil sands out of Alberta:  converting a nat gas pipeline from Alberta to Ontario to oil use, and then building a new oil pipeline through Quebec and to a port at St.John, New Brunswick.  Canada wants to be an energy superpower, and this will help get them there.  So all the environmental protests by so called Nebraska farmers and all the delays by the Obama administration which badly hurt Canadians dreams go for naught.  The railroads won't get a further added load from Alberta tar sands.  Warren Buffet must be pissed.

 

More oil independence by countries in North America can only be a good thing for us. No worries about wars breaking out in Canada or the US, unlike the Middle East. I hope one day the tides will turn and countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran would be wanting our oil instead of the other way around. 

[SiouxVolley]

Six high rise buildings are part of the development. OneOK just announced another gas plant around Watford City, it biggest yet and its fifth in the county. Just in McKenzie County, OneOK will have nearly a billion cfh capacity, which is large for anywhere, never mind Watford City. Those gas plants total capital costs is around $2 billion, so McKenzie County will have a huge tax base and nearly 1000 jobs with OneOK in the off chance no more oil wells are drilled there.

The New York developers understood that Watford City will be economically viable for their lifetimes.

Right now, those gas plants don't recover ethane, but send it down the pipelines with methane to be burned. Ethane is a big part of Bakken natural gas, one of the richer streams of ethane around. That is an incredible waste of resources, burning ethane with methane. One day, European or Asian chemical companies will want that ethane to be converted in polyethylene, probably near the Missouri River. When that day comes, Watford City and Williston will add a secondary boom almost as big as the first one.

The rumors of a petrochemical complex in ND are true. Only it won't be along the Missouri near Williston. A new company, Badlands NGLs, will build a cracker plant and polymerization plant in central or eastern ND for a cost of $4 B. While the final site hasn't been selected, the only two sites in view of cooling water and railroads considerations would have to be along the Missouri near Bismarck and near the proposed ammonia plant in Grand Forks.

Wherever this get built, the spin-off jobs are likely to be substantial, as molding plants often locate close to the source of polyethylene pellets. The plant would offer 500 full time jobs. An ethane pipeline would have to be built, and an ethane fractionation plant, also, near Williston.

Pittsburgh fought with Ohio and West Virginia for a similar complex, with all of those states offering huge incentives to locate in each state. In the words of our VP, this is a big f@$()ing deal.

[UNDBIZ]

The rumors of a petrochemical complex in ND are true. Only it won't be along the Missouri near Williston. A new company, Badlands NGLs, will build a cracker plant and polymerization plant in central or eastern ND for a cost of $4 B. While the final site hasn't been selected, the only two sites in view of cooling water and railroads considerations would have to be along the Missouri near Bismarck and near the proposed ammonia plant in Grand Forks.

Wherever this get built, the spin-off jobs are likely to be substantial, as molding plants often locate close to the source of polyethylene pellets. The plant would offer 500 full time jobs. An ethane pipeline would have to be built, and an ethane fractionation plant, also, near Williston.

Pittsburgh fought with Ohio and West Virginia for a similar complex, with all of those states offering huge incentives to locate in each state. In the words of our VP, this is a big f@$()ing deal.

 

Sounds great!  Not sure Bismarck could provide the workforce at this time and Grand Forks certainly needs whatever it can get.  Hopefully it works out.

[dmksioux]

Here is the GF Herald. They are considering more than two locations in the state.

http://www.grandforksherald.com/content/4-billion-petrochemical-plant-planned-nd-1

[SiouxVolley]

Here is the GF Herald. They are considering more than two locations in the state.

http://www.grandforksherald.com/content/4-billion-petrochemical-plant-planned-nd-1

Would think that Mandan next to the Tesoro Refiner would be that lead location. Has plenty of water and the new plant could link into Tesoro's utilities for some of the rest like demin water, instrument air, nitrogen etc.

A cracker plant heats up ethane for milliseconds to 1500 F and then needs an immediate quench. A lot of cooling water is needed so that eliminates a lot of locations because they won't have much raw river water. Jamestown next to the new fertilizer plant has a lot of synergies, but probably not enough cooling capacity.

The southern valley like Wahpeton and Fargo probably have the same problem, especially in a drought.

What Grand Forks has going for it would be possible synergies on utilities with the new fertilizer plant, easy rail access to the industrial Midwest, a new water plant that could be designed to handle the increased flows to and from the river, and infrastructure. Also, there might be a propane line built to Mentor where there is caverns to store propane for the Minnesota winter, so an NGL line containing Ethane and propane could be processed in GF would have dual purposes.

Think Mandan gets it, but Grand Forks could sneak in. The fertilizer people raved about the location, and there's a lot of alkali land out there that would be available. The plant would need two square miles, so it would be huge. Guessing it would produce a unit train of pellets day day, so transportation is a major consideration. The pipeline probable costs a million a mile, so that is a major negative.