Oil Booms in North Dakota

[ScottM]

North Dakota's two top industries are now competing for rail cars.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/26/us/grain-piles-up-waiting-for-a-ride-as-trains-move-north-dakota-oil.html?ref=business&_r=0#

[NDSU grad]

North Dakota's two top industries are now competing for rail cars.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/26/us/grain-piles-up-waiting-for-a-ride-as-trains-move-north-dakota-oil.html?ref=business&_r=0#

 

It's not really a railcar issue, it's a power and rail issue.  The BN is currently doubling track capacity between Williston and Minot, and the CP is putting adding sidings to help alleviate the traffic issue.  But I think adding pipeline capacity is really the only way to reduce the rail traffic issue.

[SiouxVolley]

 

NorthStar Mixed Used Develpment in Williston.

 

http://www.rejournals.com/2014/08/18/dakota-insight-land-investments-still-making-an-impact-in-the-bakken/

[NorCalJack]

It's not really a railcar issue, it's a power and rail issue.  The BN is currently doubling track capacity between Williston and Minot, and the CP is putting adding sidings to help alleviate the traffic issue.  But I think adding pipeline capacity is really the only way to reduce the rail traffic issue.

The railroads will fight against a pipeline vigorously.  They will make sure they have enough trains available in the oil patch to make building a pipeline a moot point.  My brother works for an ethanol plant in the Dakotas and he schedules the rail cars for his company.  He is seeing a reduction of cars available to ship his product and the cars are being diverted to the oil patch.

[ScottM]

The railroads will fight against a pipeline vigorously.  They will make sure they have enough trains available in the oil patch to make building a pipeline a moot point.  My brother works for an ethanol plant in the Dakotas and he schedules the rail cars for his company.  He is seeing a reduction of cars available to ship his product and the cars are being diverted to the oil patch.

 

The railroads will also need to consider the new proposed rules and faster timelines that the feds have rolled out for new and retrofitted rail cars hauling petroleum and ethanol.  I think the biggest obstacle to a new pipe line, like the one that's being proposed to bring Bakken crude to a refinery in Ilinois, is the farmers and state regulators who can delay the thing for years if they do it right.   

[Cratter]

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/08/26/us/grain-piles-up-waiting-for-a-ride-as-trains-move-north-dakota-oil.html?_r=0&referrer=

ND oil is hurting the ag sector.

[SiouxVolley]

 

Construction starts on Williston Crossing development, a 535 acre area that is being developed as an mixed use part of Williston.

 

This article compares Williston's development to how hot the Houston building market is.

 

http://www.us.jll.com/united-states/en-us/news/news-specials/williston-north-dakota-investment-hotspot

[SiouxVolley]

At least five more years of sustained growth of infrastructure and housing in the Bakken:

 

http://bakken.com/news/id/220590/least-5-years-planned-sustained-growth-expected-bakken/

 

 

If natural gas liquids like ethane, propane, and butane find a user that will build locally instead of going to Houston and Alberta, the sustained growth could last for 10 or 15 years.

[SiouxVolley]

http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2014/09/what-if-your-small-town-suddenly-got-huge/379536/

 

What if your small town suddenly got huge:  Watford City

[Nodak78]

Fascinating articles.  Williston will be a big city soon.  Ruth Chris Steakhouse coming to Williston.  The in ND.  The nearest must be Denver or Twin Cities.  Awesome can almost taste it now.

[SiouxVolley]

Video of proposed new Williston Convention Center:

 

http://www.kxnet.com/video?autoStart=true&topVideoCatNo=default&clipId=10486322

[UNDBIZ]

Video of proposed new Williston Convention Center:

 

http://www.kxnet.com/video?autoStart=true&topVideoCatNo=default&clipId=10486322

 

Throughout this thread, it seems multiple $XXX million mixed-use complexes and convention centers have been proposed.  Have any of these began construction or been approved and allocated funding other than the water park/wellness center?  If so, are there photo updates (not renderings) anywhere?

[SiouxVolley]

Throughout this thread, it seems multiple $XXX million mixed-use complexes and convention centers have been proposed.  Have any of these began construction or been approved and allocated funding other than the water park/wellness center?  If so, are there photo updates (not renderings) anywhere?

 

Much of Williston and Watford City are under construction, so private funding has been allocated for the mixed use complexes.  Williston has two convention centers proposed, one for a fair venue and one mostly private (shown above), that have not been totally funded and are awaiting a decision by the city to fund (maybe both get funded).

 

Most of the completed large buildings are motels or industrial buildings.

[SiouxVolley]

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/09/16/north-dakota-oil-output-surges-to-another-a-record.aspx

 

Drilling and fracking just keeps getting more efficient.  The average well now produces almost twice as much as a well five years ago.  The amount of sand used in fracking is much higher than before, causing sand volumes shipped and prices to more than double.  There are also using more slickwater fracking and increasing the fracking segments per mile to cause more oil to flow.  In addition, the drilling has been so much more efficient, so drilling rigs complete a hole in weeks instead of months.

[Cratter]

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/09/16/north-dakota-oil-output-surges-to-another-a-record.aspx

 

Drilling and fracking just keeps getting more efficient.  The average well now produces almost twice as much as a well five years ago.  The amount of sand used in fracking is much higher than before, causing sand volumes shipped and prices to more than double.  There are also using more slickwater fracking and increasing the fracking segments per mile to cause more oil to flow.  In addition, the drilling has been so much more efficient, so drilling rigs complete a hole in weeks instead of months.

So.....less workers are needed than before.

[SiouxVolley]

So.....less workers are needed than before.

The number of rigs is up to nearly a new high.  The same number of rig workers and fracking crews are creating a flowing well in half the time.

 

The logistics part is more difficult:  trains needing to be off loaded with pipe and sand.  Getting pipelines to the wells to take away wastewater, nat gas, to processing plants and oil to loading stations.  Oil tankers railcars needing to be filled.

 

Next year, is looking like the year that retail builders in Williston will take off.

[82SiouxGuy]

So.....less workers are needed than before.

They are getting more done with a similar number of workers.  Still have a lot of job openings in that region.  Still have about 190 rigs drilling, plus they have to maintain an ever increasing number of wells (they are adding about 2,500 working wells every year and only closing a few old wells each year).  Plus all of the construction all over the region.

[mg2009]

 

Construction starts on Williston Crossing development, a 535 acre area that is being developed as an mixed use part of Williston.

 

This article compares Williston's development to how hot the Houston building market is.

 

http://www.us.jll.com/united-states/en-us/news/news-specials/williston-north-dakota-investment-hotspot

that development could use a parking ramp and more buildings.  At least it's plenty dense.

[ericpnelson]

The number of rigs is up to nearly a new high.  The same number of rig workers and fracking crews are creating a flowing well in half the time.

 

The logistics part is more difficult:  trains needing to be off loaded with pipe and sand.  Getting pipelines to the wells to take away wastewater, nat gas, to processing plants and oil to loading stations.  Oil tankers railcars needing to be filled.

 

Next year, is looking like the year that retail builders in Williston will take off.

Yeah, I imagine Menards will kinda bust the door open on that industry like how restaurants have kinda exploded here the last 2 years.

[mg2009]

Bismarck-Mandan will also pass Fargo.  15 years Williston will pass or will be pushing Fargo for biggest city.  Housing will expand much over the next few years.  Retail will explode in the few years.  Then more manufacturing. Maybe a pipe dream but I think not.

 

 

Williston has two retail development both over $500 million.  That is besides Menard and the convention center.  15 years Williston will be bigger.

Fargo's growth is accelerating, and is already higher than williston/watford by a considerable margin.  Most importantly, it's not dependent on commodity prices.  FM has a 200,000 person lead, even if you hold it's population constant, you would have to add 15,000 people a year to the williston/watford area.  Fargo's growth might be pushing 10,000 people a year, right now. (6700 last census estimate)  We'll see when the next batch of census estimates comes out in the spring.

[Cratter]

http://m.willistonherald.com/news/renaissance-on-main-breaks-ground-downtown/article_e9cb335c-3f4f-11e4-a49a-276d4b3de3cf.html?mode=jqm

Looks like some current projects are already getting downsized.

The approved project was six stories tall, with 60 apartment units and 150 parking spaces, most set aside for essential employees. Byerly said the presentation made Aug. 12 to the board was not the same project—featuring four stories, 30 apartment units and 50 parking spaces. The Renaissance Companies had been promoting the six-story building on its company website.

One downtown business owner is pissed.

Byerly, who never supported the project, hung two signs on his store-front windows Tuesday, which read, “Liars go back to Illinois” and “Destroying small downtown businesses one at a time.” “Not only are they going to put me out of business, I'm paying for the damn thing,”

[NDSU grad]

Fargo's growth is accelerating, and is already higher than williston/watford by a considerable margin.  Most importantly, it's not dependent on commodity prices.  FM has a 200,000 person lead, even if you hold it's population constant, you would have to add 15,000 people a year to the williston/watford area.  Fargo's growth might be pushing 10,000 people a year, right now. (6700 last census estimate)  We'll see when the next batch of census estimates comes out in the spring.

I know Mike Williams was on the radio not too long ago, and Fargo leaders are projecting a population of 250,000 by 2040.

[Oxbow6]

I know Mike Williams was on the radio not too long ago, and Fargo leaders are projecting a population of 250,000 by 2040.

He also believes in Santa Claus and unicorns!

[Cratter]

He also believes in Santa Claus and unicorns!

Growth only matters in relation to others growth. How much larger will Sioux Falls be than Fargo in 2040?

[darell1976]

He also believes in Santa Claus and unicorns!

It could come true if Fargo leaders include growth in all sections of Fargo not just south Fargo. Lots of empty commercial space up north but they only continue to build and develop on the southside. 25 years to double in size with the population boom out west is possible, lots of jobs available all around town, I think the housing will be a problem to accomadate that size.