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Optimism


jk

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I put the following post on POI to explain why UND might be good this year, and I wanted to put it here also since the audience might be more receptive.

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...there are a few points of view that suggest UND might be a top tier team this year. Here are a few:

They finished tenth in the PWR last year, which factors in the swoon and the cupcake schedule. Of the teams that finished above them, the following lost a ton from their teams: Cornell, CC, UNH, Maine and Ferris. That leaves MN (3), BU (5), BC (8) and Michigan (9) as teams that bring back a lot. As UND brings back most of their team, they should have a good chance of moving from the middle pack to the upper tier.

UND's top 11 scorers went, in order: So, F, J, So, Sr, So, So, Sr, So, So, Fr. Some people think players do get better with another year, especially from years 1 and 2 to 2 and 3.

11 of the nation's top 20 scorers return this year. UND returns 6, 8 and 14. MN returns 6 and 16. Ferris returns 9 and 12. No one else brings back more than 1.

11 of the WCHA's top 20 scorers return. Of the 11, UND returns 4 of the top 8. MN returns 2, and no one else returns more than 1.

The team still swooned last year despite those numbers, so your point is well taken. The numbers do provide some basis for optimism, though.

As for the swoon, some mitigating factors are that it occurred mostly on the road and with injuries (OK, just one main one, but it was a doosy). Some other teams last year did not reach top form until they got past their injury problems.

The other thing about the swwon is that they were just cursed. They failed to win games where they outshot the opponent 52-21 (MSUM), 38-20 (UMD), 37-24 (UMD), and 46-27 (FSU).

Will the extra year of maturity help to overcome the intangible problem that led to the swoon? Who knows. But they should have top-end players that are matched by only a few teams in the country, which gives them a chance to be among the elite. I won't suggest they be considered in the MN, BC, Michigan group until they perform in the Spring.

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Hard to argue with facts like that. Blue chip talent or a lack thereof can mean the difference between a great team & a mediocre one. But I'm more of the Barry Melrose mentality & will be focused on the inner drive, spunk & other character qualities of this team. How will they react under pressure? Will they have a "never say die" attitude & pull out tough victories on the road? Will they rally when behind or fold? Intangibles like that. Anaheim was far from the best NHL team last year but went deep off a little luck & a lot of heart...

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You better believe there is reason for optimism about this season. Barring injury, this should be a fatastic year.

There are FINALLY going to be more than 5 or 6 upperclassmen on a Sioux team. In fact, we should field 10 or 11 per game. That will make a big difference.

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I'm not so optimistic about the Sioux this year. Of course, I'd like them to play horribly, which they won't.

The Sioux improved a lot last year, way more than I expected. Last season as said before, was very similar to the '00-'01 Gophers. Flashes of brilliance, occasional goaltending problems, just not quite enough consistancy.

What the Sioux need is for either Massen, Lundbohm or someone to turn the Sioux second line into a devastating scoring line. During the playoffs one line may get shut down in a given game, the rest of the team needs to score enough to manage the low scoring win.

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What do the boys need? Confidence. If they have that, they have enough of everything else to be a very special team. Preseason progostication is a very iffy thing, however. I think both the '97 and Hrkac Circus (if you can believe it!) title teams were picked to finish 5th in the WCHA in preseason polls. But nonetheless, that's my story and I'm stickin' to it. :D

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What do the boys need?

Two solid penalty kill units :

I think these numbers are right -- please feel free to correct 'em if need be.

overall: pk% pm

2002-2003 .784 764

2001-2002 .794 598

2000-2001 .854 686

1999-2000 .847 707

conference: pk% pm

2002-2003 .775 467

2001-2002 .783 439

2000-2001 .846 465

1999-2000 .865 478

(penalty minutes may be misleading as I don't know how many were offset by penalties to the opponent)

The penalty minutes aren't the problem -- they just really need to improve the penalty kill -- however, much of that may be due to the goalie situation.

Tracking sh goals:

2002-2003 8 (only 2 of which were during conference play)

2001-2002 4

2000-2001 7

1999-2000 5

8 of the 24 over the last 4 years (33%) were from Kevin S. & Jason N. -- I never really noticed, but does David L. play much on the pk? (just an aside: big brother Bryan L. notched 3 sh goals in 2000-2001)

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What do the boys need? Confidence. If they have that, they have enough of everything else to be a very special team. Preseason progostication is a very iffy thing, however. I think both the '97 and Hrkac Circus (if you can believe it!) title teams were picked to finish 5th in the WCHA in preseason polls. But nonetheless, that's my story and I'm stickin' to it. :D

I remember Lucia being interviewed prior to the '97 season & he thought his Tigers & the Gophers should challenge for top dog; he also said the Sioux were his darkhorse pick. I think the Sioux started 6-0 that year, were swept in the TC by the Rasmussen-led Gophers & were a steady 2nd in the national polls behind Michigan throughout the season. Michigan (much like Minnesota this year) seemed invincible until BU gave them a fresh dose of reality in the FF...

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We need to have a defensemen step up this year, if we don't, it could be a seson like last year...only more spread out. sagard has a point that the Massen/Lundbohm line needs to explode and get on the board consistantly. If we only have the Parise/Bochenski line scoring it will be easier for teams like the Gophers to key up on who to stop. If these two things happen, we should be contenders to make the Frozen Four.

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I tend to agree with those who feel we need more guys stepping this season. Last season, as I've noted on other threads, too many guys were content to "phone it in" down the stretch and ride on the coat tails of Parise, Money and a few others. Some of the upperclassmen, e.g., need to show they've actually improved in terms of production and leadership. It's nice to have a talented frosh class and few younger guys who can do it, but the juniors and seniors need to act like they have 2-3 years of WCHA hockey under their belts.

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Although most would disagree, I feel the best way to get scoring out of more then the top line is to split up Parise and Bochenski. Other teams keyed in on this line during the second half of the year. I believe two solid scoring lines could be created with the following combinations (Murry/Parise/Massen) and (Bochenski/Lundbohm/Stafford). It wouldn't matter which is considered one or two, they would both be great. :D That is if these guys have the right chemistry to play together.

This should be a great year if the team can find the right chemistry and get behind a solid goaltender. Goaltending is the key! If the team isn't worried about giving up a goal, especially a soft one, every time they're in their own zone, players would be more agressive. Taking more chances (D-men jumping up into the play creating odd man rushes) creating more scoring opportunities. If they can do this their confidence will grow and confidence breeds success.

I don't know which goaltender will step up this year, but doubt it will be Brandt. :huh: I hope I'm wrong.

This year should be exiting! I can't wait! Only 22 days!

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I've advocated splitting Money and Parise into their own lines since last season. Not only would that help create two credible scoring lines, but IMO both guys play a different style of hockey. Parise tends to do better in fast-paced, up and down play, while Bochenski seems to be in his element grinding it around the net.

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I'm optimistic about the upcoming season for a number of reasons already mentioned by others, and if for no other reason than it is the start of another NEW season and that is always FUN!

Acknowledging the goalie question, I think our top line forwards will be as good as anyone in the country.

I think D will be solid.

I think the season MIGHT just come down to offensive depth. Do we have guys who WILL put the biscuit in the basket on the 3rd and 4th lines?

What impact would it have on the team to see Canady score 8-9 goals, Hale score 10, Genoway score 12?

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I really think that the only way we are going to be competitors is if we play good defensive and smart hockey. Keep the powerplay unit on the ice and the penalty kill unit off of the ice. Limit chances and make scoring opportunities count. I don't think I'll find anyone who will argue with this....

.... and I'll stop there. Don't want to start anything or say anything I might regret.

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I really think that the only way we are going to be competitors is if we play good defensive and smart hockey. Keep the powerplay unit on the ice and the penalty kill unit off of the ice. Limit chances and make scoring opportunities count. I don't think I'll find anyone who will argue with this....

.... and I'll stop there. Don't want to start anything or say anything I might regret.

How about the ability to score on the power play?:D;):huh:

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I really think that the only way we are going to be competitors is if we play good defensive and smart hockey. Keep the powerplay unit on the ice and the penalty kill unit off of the ice. Limit chances and make scoring opportunities count. I don't think I'll find anyone who will argue with this....

.... and I'll stop there. Don't want to start anything or say anything I might regret.

Even Canisius and Ohio State could be contenders if they did this....well, maybe not Canisius :D

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