burd Posted January 25, 2009 Share Posted January 25, 2009 The question has been raised in the Denver game thread about our pairwise ranking, and I thought it might deserve a separate thread. I know little about the system and usually just enjoy the games and hope things work out--a "you win and you're in" way of looking at it. But I'm a little concerned that, even though this team is really playing good hockey, they might find it difficult to make the cut. You can win and move down in the rankings or lose and move up, depending on the ranking of your opponent. The Sioux have no more games on the schedule where they play a team ranked above them (T 14). If they run the table for the remaining schedule (not talking about the conference playoffs), you have to figure they will be in, but if they lose even a game or two against poorly ranked teams, it seems they might face some real problems. Even if we make it to the Final Five, only the gophs and Pios are there to provide highly ranked opposition. It would be especially unfortunate for this team, which appears to now be as good as anybody, to miss the cut. But that seems all too possible, even if they win most of their games from here on in. I know that you can only play one game at a time on the ice and that the computer games play themselves, but anyone else concerned about how difficult it might be for this team to get in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passit_offthegoalie Posted January 25, 2009 Share Posted January 25, 2009 I agree. But on the bright side...it's only 2 big games at the F5 and we're good to go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jk Posted January 25, 2009 Share Posted January 25, 2009 It's a less comfortable position than in the past, where they had a couple big non-conference wins plus a very good non-conference record to fall back on, but not as terrible as you might think. All the other teams in that 10-16 PWR area are in the same situation, and they're not all going to go 8-2 down the stretch. If the Sioux keep winning most of their games, they'll pass enough of those teams, because the winning percent will keep pushing the RPI up. My concern is that I still respect and fear most of the teams in the league, and it's going to be hard for UND to keep up this winning pace. For starters, they appear to be catching SCSU at a bad time. But we'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagard Posted January 25, 2009 Share Posted January 25, 2009 It's a less comfortable position than in the past, where they had a couple big non-conference wins plus a very good non-conference record to fall back on, but not as terrible as you might think. All the other teams in that 10-16 PWR area are in the same situation, and they're not all going to go 8-2 down the stretch. If the Sioux keep winning most of their games, they'll pass enough of those teams, because the winning percent will keep pushing the RPI up. My concern is that I still respect and fear most of the teams in the league, and it's going to be hard for UND to keep up this winning pace. For starters, they appear to be catching SCSU at a bad time. But we'll see. Nobody in the WCHA is a lock for the tourney this year. The best way to make the tourney (without the autobid) is to finish top three in league and win at least one game at the X. The third place game at the X could easily be a tourney entrance deciding game. As long as the Sioux don't go belly up some weekend, I think they will play well enough to make it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted January 25, 2009 Share Posted January 25, 2009 Nobody in the WCHA is a lock for the tourney this year. The best way to make the tourney (without the autobid) is to finish top three in league and win at least one game at the X. The third place game at the X could easily be a tourney entrance deciding game. As long as the Sioux don't go belly up some weekend, I think they will play well enough to make it. I think your right, did you see that Cornell lost one game this weekend and dropped four slots, the RPI/PWR is fluid and moving. I think UND just needs to keep winning 75% of their games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sioux_Hab-it Posted January 25, 2009 Share Posted January 25, 2009 I think your right, did you see that Cornell lost one game this weekend and dropped four slots, the RPI/PWR is fluid and moving. I think UND just needs to keep winning 75% of their games. Winning 75% of the remaining games may do nothing for UND's pairwise situation because it won't help them with respect to the teams who are ahead of them. They can't win the comparison against UMD and the only hope in that situation would be to have the Dawgz tank big time for the rest of the season. Unfortunately the only sure and clear way in for the Sioux this season is to win one of the autobids. This is not looking like a good year for the WCHA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yzerman19 Posted January 25, 2009 Share Posted January 25, 2009 I was wondering when this thread would show up. The PWR is not perfect. The TUC category doesn't count unless both teams have at least 10 games played against teams under consideration. For example, UND has played 15 games against teams under consideration for the tournament. We are 8-5-2. Princeton, 9th in PWR, has played 5 games against teams under consideration. COrnell has also only played 5 TUCs. Assuming TUCs stay the same, Cornell will not have played enough TUCs to have that factor into their PWR against anyone. This is sad, as they would currently be a #1 seed. We can definitely flip UMD, as they win the tie breaker with RPI by .0052. Sioux keep winning, and that RPI will go up. If we draw them in the WCHA playoffs, we will have the opportunity to win and flip as well. New Hamp[shire also wins the tiebreaker by way of an identical, flippable, .0052 in RPI. TUCs also change at the bottom this time of year, and I wouldn';t be surprised to see some changes as to who is considered a TUC. Mankato is just outside the top 25. Anyway, winning against any team in a scenario that helps RPI can boost the PWR. KRACH is much better, but PWR is what we've got. Win the F5 and go to the NCAAs. THat has to be the mantra of the team right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yzerman19 Posted January 25, 2009 Share Posted January 25, 2009 I lied. COrnell would have enough TUCs when compared to other teams (not UND). H2H is removed from TUC when two TUCs play, so the 1-1 vs UND will give COrnell enough TUCs against others, but it won't count in our individual PWR against them. There is a lot of parity this year in NCAA hockey. I think that BU is sick, THe pundits seem to like Notre Dame, but I haven't seen them play. DU with Bozak back will be a legitimate threat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZSIOUX Posted January 25, 2009 Share Posted January 25, 2009 we dug oursewlves a nice hole being 3 or 4 games under .500 early in the year. THEN, the disaster in detroit is why we are where we are. losing to two of the worst teams out there doesnt help at all especially in a middle of what now is a 10-2-2 streak or whatever it is. those are killer losses right now. oh well. they have climbed up a lot and will continue to with winning. go take care of scsu. they have been awful except this last weekend in the springs. just keep winning. i dont go with that 75% thing either as it all depends on when you do lose and who wins or loses around you in the pairwise. just win vs the one and doners!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yzerman19 Posted January 25, 2009 Share Posted January 25, 2009 THose two GLI losses do really hurt the RPI. It seems that great wins help the RPI some, but bad losses destroy it. With you on the keep winning. As long as we keep winning, we are in the driver's seat. Anyone know why USCHO and SS.com have different PWR? Is one more updated than the other? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted January 25, 2009 Share Posted January 25, 2009 Anyone know why USCHO and SS.com have different PWR? Is one more updated than the other? I'm missing it -- what's different? USCHO SiouxSports I still disagree with the pessimism in this thread. Three weeks ago I tried to debunk the "UND can't make the tournament" discussions, noting that winning about 75% of their remaining games would land them in the top 15 of the PWR. Here they are 6 games later having gone 4-0-2, already climbed to #15 in the PWR with 10 games remaining in the regular season, and the pessimism only seems to have gotten worse! At a quick glance, about half of UND's comparisons look flippable with a ~70% win percentage (which would land UND around a .542 RPI). Keep in mind that 10 games is also just the end of the regular season. The conference tournament can provide up to 6 more games (though realistically, a max 4-0-0 contribution for our purposes). In addition to an opportunity to move the RPI somewhere in the neighborhood of .01-.02, it can also present golden opportunities to secure additional h2h points against the likes of Denver, Minnesota, and UMD (each of whom has a tenuous 0-1 point lead over UND). I'll run some real numbers tomorrow, but at first glance my guess would have been that the Sioux could make the tournament at large by winning something in the neighborhood of 60-70% of its remaining games. I even wonder if the Sioux could land in the neighborhood of #8 in the PWR by the end of the regular season if they keep up their 2009 performance to date (a goal that would seem entirely unrealistic if last year's team hadn't done it). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yzerman19 Posted January 25, 2009 Share Posted January 25, 2009 sorry jim, I hadn't looked that closely. SS lays out in order using tie breakers (rpi) uscho simply counts PWR wins. The guts are the same. UND and BC both have 11 PWR, labeled as T-14 by uscho. BC has a higher RPI, so is 14, und is 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxweet Posted January 25, 2009 Share Posted January 25, 2009 bottom line is Jim is correct. there are a lot of comparisons that can be flipped. the biggest thing that will flip those is our rpi. as long as we keep on winning our rpi will go up and therefore comparisons will be flipped. we also still have at least 6 games left with TUC teams and if we go 5-1 or 4-2 that will help us as well. there is no need to panic yet as there is a lot of season left. we have put ourselves into a position where we can make the tourney if we take care of our business. in the last three weeks I think we've moves up 13-15 spots. just keep winning and that stuff will take care of itself. I said this two months ago, I think when it is all said and we will be in the top 10 in the PWR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZSIOUX Posted January 25, 2009 Share Posted January 25, 2009 I'm missing it -- what's different? USCHO SiouxSports I still disagree with the pessimism in this thread. Three weeks ago I tried to debunk the "UND can't make the tournament" discussions, noting that winning about 75% of their remaining games would land them in the top 15 of the PWR. Here they are 6 games later having gone 4-0-2, already climbed to #15 in the PWR with 10 games remaining in the regular season, and the pessimism only seems to have gotten worse! At a quick glance, about half of UND's comparisons look flippable with a ~70% win percentage (which would land UND around a .542 RPI). Keep in mind that 10 games is also just the end of the regular season. The conference tournament can provide up to 6 more games (though realistically, a max 4-0-0 contribution for our purposes). In addition to an opportunity to move the RPI somewhere in the neighborhood of .01-.02, it can also present golden opportunities to secure additional h2h points against the likes of Denver, Minnesota, and UMD (each of whom has a tenuous 0-1 point lead over UND). I'll run some real numbers tomorrow, but at first glance my guess would have been that the Sioux could make the tournament at large by winning something in the neighborhood of 60-70% of its remaining games. I even wonder if the Sioux could land in the neighborhood of #8 in the PWR by the end of the regular season if they keep up their 2009 performance to date (a goal that would seem entirely unrealistic if last year's team hadn't done it). thank goodness for you and your breakdowns, thx!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Whistler Posted January 25, 2009 Share Posted January 25, 2009 It seems that the pwr often looks grim at this point of the season but by the time the selection comes about you really can't take issue with it. It's also worth noting that we are at #14 in the pwr as well as the KRACH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burd Posted January 25, 2009 Author Share Posted January 25, 2009 I'm missing it -- what's different? USCHO SiouxSports I still disagree with the pessimism in this thread. Three weeks ago I tried to debunk the "UND can't make the tournament" discussions, noting that winning about 75% of their remaining games would land them in the top 15 of the PWR. Here they are 6 games later having gone 4-0-2, already climbed to #15 in the PWR with 10 games remaining in the regular season, and the pessimism only seems to have gotten worse! At a quick glance, about half of UND's comparisons look flippable with a ~70% win percentage (which would land UND around a .542 RPI). Keep in mind that 10 games is also just the end of the regular season. The conference tournament can provide up to 6 more games (though realistically, a max 4-0-0 contribution for our purposes). In addition to an opportunity to move the RPI somewhere in the neighborhood of .01-.02, it can also present golden opportunities to secure additional h2h points against the likes of Denver, Minnesota, and UMD (each of whom has a tenuous 0-1 point lead over UND). I'll run some real numbers tomorrow, but at first glance my guess would have been that the Sioux could make the tournament at large by winning something in the neighborhood of 60-70% of its remaining games. I even wonder if the Sioux could land in the neighborhood of #8 in the PWR by the end of the regular season if they keep up their 2009 performance to date (a goal that would seem entirely unrealistic if last year's team hadn't done it). So does that mean we can come in from the ledge now? It's getting crowded out here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Whistler Posted January 25, 2009 Share Posted January 25, 2009 So does that mean we can come in from the ledge now? It's getting crowded out here. You better get in with that windchill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burd Posted January 25, 2009 Author Share Posted January 25, 2009 You better get in with that windchill. Yeah, that's why I'm so eager to give Jim the benefit of the doubt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Whistler Posted January 25, 2009 Share Posted January 25, 2009 Yeah, that's why I'm so eager to give Jim the benefit of the doubt. There's no harm in coming in, provided you don't lock the window? So does that mean we can come in from the ledge now? Don't you live in a single level house? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stickboy1956 Posted January 26, 2009 Share Posted January 26, 2009 It seems that the pwr often looks grim at this point of the season but by the time the selection comes about you really can't take issue with it. It's also worth noting that we are at #14 in the pwr as well as the KRACH. Things can/will change quickly - I believe BC will move all the way up to 11 with the win today v. Maine. It looks like we could have been in the top 10 if we would have won the tied games vs. MTU and Denver recently. Use this site to build your own PWR http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2009 Just keep winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted January 26, 2009 Share Posted January 26, 2009 Things can/will change quickly - I believe BC will move all the way up to 11 with the win today v. Maine. Use this site to build your own PWR http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2009 Yeah, Whelan is THE original PWR guru. That same site, circa 2000, was the first to break out the individual comparisons which allowed us all to begin hypothesizing about which comparisons could flip. No doubt it inspired me to build the PWR and RPI details features here, and him having nailed the You-Are-The-Committee (now at CollegeHockeyNews) and build-a-PWR (linked above) tools are why I've never bothered trying to duplicate either of those. I should work some links to them into the PWR screens somehow... That said, we disagree on something, in that USCHO and I have BC landing at #12 after defeating Maine. Perhaps you excluded today's other games? That's always been the problem with the build your own scenarios, one result can invalidate them. That's a big part of why I'm trying to predict distributions of outcomes instead of specific outcomes now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stickboy1956 Posted January 26, 2009 Share Posted January 26, 2009 Yeah, Whelan is THE original PWR guru. That same site, circa 2000, was the first to break out the individual comparisons which allowed us all to begin hypothesizing about which comparisons could flip. No doubt it inspired me to build the PWR and RPI details features here, and him having nailed the You-Are-The-Committee (now at CollegeHockeyNews) and build-a-PWR (linked above) tools are why I've never bothered trying to duplicate either of those. I should work some links to them into the PWR screens somehow... That said, we disagree on something, in that USCHO and I have BC landing at #12 after defeating Maine. Perhaps you excluded today's other games? That's always been the problem with the build your own scenarios, one result can invalidate them. That's a big part of why I'm trying to predict distributions of outcomes instead of specific outcomes now. Correct - I did not include the other Sunday games. All this shows how volatile the PWR can be at this time of year. What the current PWR does show is that we need to keep winning. .500 - .600 the rest of the year probably won't get us in the tournament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxweet Posted January 26, 2009 Share Posted January 26, 2009 flippable comparisons that could go in our direction: bc-we pass them in rpi we win this comparison du-outside shot at rpi or if we face them again at the final five and beat them we win this comparison miami-rpi and TUC could both go our way duluth-pass them in rpi and we win this one nh-pass them in rpi and we win this one ohio state-could pass them in rpi and when they play 10 games gainst TUC we will win this comparison princeton-outside shot at rpi this just goes to show how fluid the pwr are right now and will be up until the title game at the x is played in mid-march. as long as we keep taking care of our business things will go our way. no need to panic just because we didn't move at all in the pwr this weekend. I was told at one time that the pwr were not meant to be looked at until the season was over as they are just a snapshot of what is occuring in the season at any particular moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxhockeyfan11 Posted January 26, 2009 Share Posted January 26, 2009 flippable comparisons that could go in our direction: bc-we pass them in rpi we win this comparison du-outside shot at rpi or if we face them again at the final five and beat them we win this comparison miami-rpi and TUC could both go our way duluth-pass them in rpi and we win this one nh-pass them in rpi and we win this one ohio state-could pass them in rpi and when they play 10 games gainst TUC we will win this comparison princeton-outside shot at rpi this just goes to show how fluid the pwr are right now and will be up until the title game at the x is played in mid-march. as long as we keep taking care of our business things will go our way. no need to panic just because we didn't move at all in the pwr this weekend. I was told at one time that the pwr were not meant to be looked at until the season was over as they are just a snapshot of what is occuring in the season at any particular moment. Like AZSIOUX always says just keep winning and it will take care of itself. But thanks for the insight into which comparisons we can flip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZSIOUX Posted January 26, 2009 Share Posted January 26, 2009 Like AZSIOUX always says just keep winning and it will take care of itself. But thanks for the insight into which comparisons we can flip. you got it and thanks also above for those breakdowns, thats the part i always have problems getting so thanks above!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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