331 replies to this topic

[jimdahl]

My first stab of the 2011-12 season:

A first look at the PairWise Rankings and UND’s tournament possibilities



The men have a high, though not insurmountable, hurdle ahead of them.

[siouxczech29]

Looking at the remaining schedule I'd say 11 wins is very do-able. That would mean we would have to sweep all those series we should sweep and get no less than a split on any given weekend.

[GoalieMask]

They are all huge but I maintain those road trips to St. Cloud, Duluth, and Denver will make or break the second half. Got to get points away from The Ralph.

[jimdahl]

Minnesota-Duluth passed Ohio State in PWR (and KRACH) last weekend, knocking OSU out of #1 for the first meaningful time this season.

It comes down to the narrowest of RPI margins on the head-to-head, UMD .5899 OSU .5874. Ohio State's next opponent (Michigan) is enough stronger than UMD's (Nebraska-Omaha) that Ohio State is quite likely to retake the lead if they sweep.

[jimdahl]

And for those who like to dive into data trends themselves (like OSU getting knocked out of #1 for the first time this season), you can now play along at home. I'm pleased to announce the newly revised ranking trend charts, now with historical data back to the 2004 season.

NCAA Hockey Ranking Trend Charts

[jimdahl]

Some may have noticed Minnesota's precipitous fall in PWR (9 spots, from comfortably in the tournament at #7 to out at #16). It's one of the most extreme examples I've seen of the volatility problem with tracking PWR this time of year.

When you look at Minnesota's PWR details, you see that they lose a lot of comparisons that are only using 2 criteria -- RPI and either TUC or COP (the other not being in use due to lack of common opponents, or the other TUC not yet having played 10 games vs TUCs). Minnesota was previously winning a lot of those comparison by a hair, having a slightly better RPI (.5468 before last night's loss), and thus the tie-breaker in the 1-1 comparison. However, that RPI was pretty mediocre for being #7 in PWR (the curent #7 has .5537) such that a loss push Minnesota's RPI low enough (.5608) that a lot of those comparisons flipped.

The good news is that it should be just as easy to climb rapidly with a few wins, but Minnesota really needs to improve its TUC record (.5000) to reliably cement itself a spot in the top 10, especially as that criteria comes into play vs. additional TUCs (6 current TUCs aren't yet using it, with TUC records of .4375 to .5833).

[GFG]

Realistically you could probably get in at 17 couldn't you? Because I find it hard to believe the selection committee will let the CCHA have 7+ teams in the tournament like they would right now.

[siouxnami]

Its all about the numbers if 7 get in, 7 get in. No questions asked...

[passit_offthegoalie]

GFG, on 22 January 2012 - 12:48 AM, said:

Realistically you could probably get in at 17 couldn't you? Because I find it hard to believe the selection committee will let the CCHA have 7+ teams in the tournament like they would right now.

This comes up a thousand times every year, and it's almost always Gopher and Badger fans that think they should have the rules changed for them. It drives me nuts.

Sorry, to pick on you, but the selection criteria/process is what it is, and they can't change it in the middle of the season. It's the result of a mathematical formula and nothing else.

[Frozen4sioux]

passit_offthegoalie, on 22 January 2012 - 04:58 PM, said:

Sorry, to pick on you, but the selection criteria/process is what it is, and they can't change it in the middle of the season. It's the result of a mathematical formula and nothing else.

Although haven't there been criteria and calculation changes during the last few seasons?

[82SiouxGuy]

Frozen4sioux, on 22 January 2012 - 06:29 PM, said:

Although haven't there been criteria and calculation changes during the last few seasons?

I believe there have been some changes between seasons, but not during the season. Of course, our host would be the local expert on the subject.

[GFG]

passit_offthegoalie, on 22 January 2012 - 04:58 PM, said:

This comes up a thousand times every year, and it's almost always Gopher and Badger fans that think they should have the rules changed for them. It drives me nuts.

Sorry, to pick on you, but the selection criteria/process is what it is, and they can't change it in the middle of the season. It's the result of a mathematical formula and nothing else.

I just said that because I thought I remembered a few occurrences this past decade where more WCHA teams should have gotten in but didn't because they already had so many. I could be wrong, but I thought I remembered it happening a couple years in a row earlier in the decade.

[jodcon]

GFG, on 22 January 2012 - 06:59 PM, said:

I just said that because I thought I remembered a few occurrences this past decade where more WCHA teams should have gotten in but didn't because they already had so many. I could be wrong, but I thought I remembered it happening a couple years in a row earlier in the decade.

I think it's pretty cut and dried, 17 is the stinkhole regardless of circumstances.

[GFG]

jodcon, on 22 January 2012 - 07:06 PM, said:

I think it's pretty cut and dried, 17 is the stinkhole regardless of circumstances.

Fair enough. The PWR is one thing I've never even tried to understand other than the positions. My personal opinion would be that they decide the teams with the KRACH rankings.

[jodcon]

GoalieMask, on 03 January 2012 - 07:11 PM, said:

They are all huge but I maintain those road trips to St. Cloud, Duluth, and Denver will make or break the second half. Got to get points away from The Ralph.

I think if we split the road series at St. Cloud (done), Duluth, and Denver and win 5 of the 6 at home we should sneak in considering how tough the Duluth and Denver wins are on the road, but I'm not nearly smart enough to give any calculations why.

[jimdahl]

Frozen4sioux, on 22 January 2012 - 06:29 PM, said:

Although haven't there been criteria and calculation changes during the last few seasons?

I think it's a question of when we find out about the changes. The only definitive source I know of is the NCAA Championship Handbook, which isn't yet available for 2012. It could contain language in the selection criteria that differs from last year (which happened in 2010-2011 change, when no one knew a particular change was coming until we all saw it in the Handbook in January 2011, half way through the season). However, this year the guys at CHN and USCHO have already found out about at least one change through their contacts on the relevant committees, so it's a decent guess that there won't be any more changes.

[siouxnami]

As an aside I always like to compare PWR to KRACH. KRACH is the gospel truth about where you should rank. If PWRis better than KRACH it means you are higher than you should be and vice versa. The Sioux ranking is probably fair right now. This will not matter when we when the Final 5 and get an autobid..

[The Sicatoka]

jodcon, on 22 January 2012 - 07:06 PM, said:

I think it's pretty cut and dried, 17 is the stinkhole regardless of circumstances.

The autobids to lower conferences will normally take out the teams sitting at 16 and 15, and sometimes 14 if there's a tournament surprise somewhere else.

Honestly, with five autobids, the only save place to be is either (a) holding an autobid, or (b) sit in the top eleven of PWR.

[jodcon]

The Sicatoka, on 23 January 2012 - 02:14 PM, said:

The autobids to lower conferences will normally take out the teams sitting at 16 and 15, and sometimes 14 if there's a tournament surprise somewhere else.

Honestly, with five autobids, the only save place to be is either (a) holding an autobid, or (b) sit in the top eleven of PWR.

Yeah I should have worded that better, you don't want to be the 17th available team including autobids regardless of your ranking.

Autobids plus the next best available 11 are in, usually not much of an issue for UND but this year we might really be pulling for the favorites in these conference tounaments.

Or we could just win our own tournament like siouxnami says and not worry about it. Yeah let's do that.

[LetsGoSioux!]

***Joke alert***

They will put UND in the regional closest to our area because they know how many fans will attend. It doesn't matter what our ranking is, we will get in. The NCAA needs our money.

Has anyone ever heard this from a certain fanbase to the southeast of UND???