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Spring 2011 PWR discussion


jimdahl

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It was mentioned a few weeks/pages back, but one PWR aspect of this weekend's series worth remembering-

CC is the only common opponent scheduled between Yale and UND this year. Yale won the game, for a 1.000 COP record vs. UND.

If UND does anything other than sweep CC, to also achieve a 1.000 COP record, Yale will take the COP comparison with UND. That would give Yale a 3-0 comparison lead, meaning that even if UND went on to take RPI it wouldn't be enough to win the comparison anymore.

If UND sweeps CC, COP will be a wash for that comparison and UND will only need to take RPI to win the comparison with Yale.

Interesting. My knowledge of the PWR just got that much stronger by reading your post. Thanks.

BTW, my knowledge of the PWR and a $ might buy me a Coke.

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It was mentioned a few weeks/pages back, but one PWR aspect of this weekend's series worth remembering-

CC is the only common opponent scheduled between Yale and UND this year. Yale won the game, for a 1.000 COP record vs. UND.

If UND does anything other than sweep CC, to also achieve a 1.000 COP record, Yale will take the COP comparison with UND. That would give Yale a 3-0 comparison lead, meaning that even if UND went on to take RPI it wouldn't be enough to win the comparison anymore.

If UND sweeps CC, COP will be a wash for that comparison and UND will only need to take RPI to win the comparison with Yale.

Alright then anything less than a sweep is unacceptable. :lol:

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Bye week is my favorite PWR forecasting week, so I had to get it fired up...

Idle UND hockey team could climb to #1 in PWR this weekend

Ok, the headline was a little sensationalistic... UND has something like a 7% chance of landing at #1 (all scenarios undoubtedly involve losing both its games, and then a little luck for UND). #2-#3 is quite likely.

undpwrfeb8.png

I've also updated the rankings pages on SiouxSports. I mostly made a lot more columns sortable, but in light of all the interest in comparing SOS this season (for obvious reasons) added KRACH and RPI SOS to the rankings comparisons table.

NCAA Division I - College Hockey Rankings Comparison

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And the 2011 Ice Hockey Championship Manual is out, and... surprise! another change... the minimum ten games vs TUCs stipulation for TUC to be a criterion is back. As mentioned earlier in this thread, it doesn't matter much anymore with the TUC pool so much larger (everyone has more games vs. TUCs so almost everyone under consideration will reach 10).

The good news is it's probably safe to guess that there won't be any more changes this year.

2011 Ice Hockey Championship Manual

Selection critera:

The following criteria shall be employed by a governing sports committee in selecting participants for NCAA championships competition [bylaw 31.3.3; Criteria for Selection of Participants]:

• Won-lost record;

• Strength of schedule; and

• Eligibility and availability of student-athletes for NCAA championships.

In addition to Bylaw 31.3.3, the men’s ice hockey committee has received approval from the Division I Championships/Sports Management Cabinet to consider the following criteria in the selection of at-large teams for the men’s ice hockey championship (not necessarily in priority order):

• Rating Percentage Index (RPI) [won-lost record (25 percent), opponents’ winning percentage (21 percent) and opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage (54 percent)]; Note: If the points awarded in the RPI for a win in a postseason conference tournament game are less than the average regular-season RPI point value per game, then points that an institution is not penalized for a win in a postseason conference tournament by having its overall RPI decrease. This same policy also applies to the regular season as well.

• Head-to-head competition;

• Results versus common opponents; and

• Results versus teams under consideration (“teams under consideration” defined as those teams with an RPI of .500 or better). This category is used only if the two teams being compared have played a minimum of ten games versus “teams under consideration.” The committee reserves the right to evaluate each team based on the relative strength of its respective conference using the overall conference RPI and conference comparisons (e.g., Conference A’s won-lost record versus Conference B, etc.) in determining competitive equity. During the selection process, each of the above criteria will carry one point except head-to-head competition, which will carry the number of points equal to the net

difference in the results of these games (e.g., if Team A defeats Team B three out of four games, Team A would receive two points in the selection process). When

comparing two teams, the team earning the most points will be given consideration in the selection process. If the point process provides a tie, the Rating Percentage Index may serve as the determining factor, regardless of the difference. Additionally, input is provided by regional advisory committees for consideration by the men’s ice hockey committee. Coaches’ polls and/or any other outside polls or rankings are not used as a selection criterion by the men’s ice hockey committee for selection purposes.

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These brackets make sense, as far as where the WCHA teams are likely to go.

I think the committee will look at the remaining seedings and make some swaps ... because St Louis is an attendance nightmare. Look for Michigan or Notre Dame to get sent to St Louis along with UND. They will keep the seeding bands, but as we saw last year, the best #2 seed doesn't always get the lowest #3.

In the above brackets, that could be achieved by swapping BC and Notre Dame. Or by placing Michigan in St Louis and moving Notre Dame to Manchester. (Michigan fanbase travels better than Notre Dame.)

I also think the committee would look for a way to place UNO in St Louis. But I don't see them matching them with another WCHA #1 seed in the first round. That taboo seems almost sacred. But if UNO climbs to a #3, look for them to be in St Louis.

Barring UND falling to a #3 seed, I think we're going to St Louis. (Don't worry about rushing out to buy tickets, however.)

I'm hoping UND gets sent to St. Louis. I'll be going with my daughters and my 2 brothers and their kids will come up from Springfield, Mo as well if that happens.

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Saw this on USCHO this morning.

Volatility on the edge of TUC

Robert Morris loss Thursday night to Canisius had a big effect on North Dakotas PairWise ranking. The Colonials dropped as a Team Under Consideration (TUC) when their RPI fell below .500 in the 54 defeat. That cost the Fighting Sioux two wins against TUC (causing them to lose that comparison against Denver) and a few decimal points in RPI (causing them to lose the RPI comparison vs. Boston College), moving North Dakota to fifth in the PairWise and out of an NCAA regional No. 1 seed.

Why does this matter now? Because it has implications for the final few games of the season. Robert Morris is likely to stay right around .500 in the RPI as it battles for its first AHA title. The Colonials could return as a TUC with a decent regular-season finish and a successful Atlantic Hockey playoff run.

North Dakota fans may find themselves keeping tabs on Atlantic Hockey playoff results to see whether those two wins against RoMo at the Ralph in January will help the Sioux or not.

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Saw this on USCHO this morning.

Volatility on the edge of TUC

Yeah, I saw that too. He's not wrong in the facts, UND did drop two spots, but it's not really as important as you might think just reading that post. As I mentioned in the weekend prediction, UND's comparison wins over Denver and BC were hanging by a thread; they temporarily flipped due to this minor move, but the outcome at the end of the weekend will still be determined by those teams' own performances. If BC and Denver win, they'll hold onto those comparisons (which they would've taken whether Robert Morris won or lost). If BC and Denver lose, those comparisons will flip back to UND.

Come Monday, whether Robert Morris won or lost won't have had any direct effect on UND's ranking. In the long run, there are currently at least 4 teams within .01 of .500 in RPI who UND has a winning record against (Alaska, St. Cloud, Bemidji, Robert Morris) -- how many of those end up above and below the TUC line will have a small impact. (AA will also be in that camp if UND emerges with a winning record vs. them).

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Yeah, I saw that too. He's not wrong in the facts, UND did drop two spots, but it's not really as important as you might think just reading that post. As I mentioned in the weekend prediction, UND's comparison wins over Denver and BC were hanging by a thread; they temporarily flipped due to this minor move, but the outcome at the end of the weekend will still be determined by those teams' own performances. If BC and Denver win, they'll hold onto those comparisons (which they would've taken whether Robert Morris won or lost). If BC and Denver lose, those comparisons will flip back to UND.

Come Monday, whether Robert Morris won or lost won't have had any direct effect on UND's ranking. In the long run, there are currently at least 4 teams within .01 of .500 in RPI who UND has a winning record against (Alaska, St. Cloud, Bemidji, Robert Morris) -- how many of those end up above and below the TUC line will have a small impact. (AA will also be in that camp if UND emerges with a winning record vs. them).

Great work as always.

We all must remember that the only PWR that matters is the last one.

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Yeah, I saw that too. He's not wrong in the facts, UND did drop two spots, but it's not really as important as you might think just reading that post. As I mentioned in the weekend prediction, UND's comparison wins over Denver and BC were hanging by a thread; they temporarily flipped due to this minor move, but the outcome at the end of the weekend will still be determined by those teams' own performances. If BC and Denver win, they'll hold onto those comparisons (which they would've taken whether Robert Morris won or lost). If BC and Denver lose, those comparisons will flip back to UND.

Come Monday, whether Robert Morris won or lost won't have had any direct effect on UND's ranking. In the long run, there are currently at least 4 teams within .01 of .500 in RPI who UND has a winning record against (Alaska, St. Cloud, Bemidji, Robert Morris) -- how many of those end up above and below the TUC line will have a small impact. (AA will also be in that camp if UND emerges with a winning record vs. them).

Jim, I think you posted this earlier when the whole re-definition of TUC came out, but how many teams are usually at .500 RPI or better, come season end?

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Jim, I think you posted this earlier when the whole re-definition of TUC came out, but how many teams are usually at .500 RPI or better, come season end?

That's a great question, I never really though of the fact that it could vary (so it must have been someone else who posted it).

Nonetheless, I have the historical rankings handy, so here's what I count for the last Monday each March:

2010: 31

2009: 29

2008: 31

2007: 28

2006: 28

2005: 27

2004: 30

So, the last few weeks that it's been 32-34 would apparently be unusually high.

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That's a great question, I never really though of the fact that it could vary (so it must have been someone else who posted it).

Nonetheless, I have the historical rankings handy, so here's what I count for the last Monday each March:

2010: 31

2009: 29

2008: 31

2007: 28

2006: 28

2005: 27

2004: 30

So, the last few weeks that it's been 32-34 would apparently be unusually high.

Oh, you truly are the best in the business at PWR. I bow to the master.

I wonder, though, if at this point in the season during the seasons you listed, there were more teams with a .500 RPI and that the number shrinks as the end of the season approaches.

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I'll be cheering for CC, BU, and *shutters* the gophers.

You don't have to cheer for the gophers, which I agree does make me a little nauseous. Instead you should cheer for bulldog misfortune. And it doesn't matter which kind, Yale or Duluth, because I would like to see them both lose.

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If DU and UND are #1 seeds and UMD is a #2 seed, as it sits now, who gets sent to St. Louis and Green Bay for the #1 seed. I think for gate revenue, UND goes to St. Louis and DU and UMD go to Green Bay? Thoughts...

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If DU and UND are #1 seeds and UMD is a #2 seed, as it sits now, who gets sent to St. Louis and Green Bay for the #1 seed. I think for gate revenue, UND goes to St. Louis and DU and UMD go to Green Bay? Thoughts...

St Louis is closer for Denver and Green Bay is closer for UND so it only makes sense to me to send us to GB and Denver to St. Louis. As for Duluth, if they are a second seed they usually get matched up with their respective 1 seed (1-8, 2-7, 3-6, 4-5) so as of right now I would put them with Denver. I think that is how it is supposed to happen and then if they are worried about attendance they can switch stuff around.

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St Louis is closer for Denver and Green Bay is closer for UND so it only makes sense to me to send us to GB and Denver to St. Louis. As for Duluth, if they are a second seed they usually get matched up with their respective 1 seed (1-8, 2-7, 3-6, 4-5) so as of right now I would put them with Denver. I think that is how it is supposed to happen and then if they are worried about attendance they can switch stuff around.

Well, a flight is a flight, so it doesn't really matter if Green Bay is closer for UND and St. Louis is closer for Denver.

Generally, they try to match up the #2 seeds with their #1 counterpart as well. Saying that, given the teams that are currently in the tournament, I think we'll see some odd looking brackets for integrity purposes.

Here is what I have given the current PWR:

Bridgeport:

#1 Yale vs #16 Atlantic Hockey AQ

#7 Union vs #12 UNO*

Manchester:

#2 BC vs #14 Dartmouth

#8 UNH vs #9 RPI

Green Bay:

#4 Denver vs #13 Michigan*

#6 Merrimack vs #11 Wisconsin

St. Louis:

#3 UND vs #15 Miami

#5 UMD vs #10 Notre Dame

*UNO and Michigan are tied for 12th in the PWR. Michigan has a higher RPI, while UNO wins the individual comparison. There is a little confusion on how ties are broken between two teams. We know if there are three or more, that RPI is used, but according to the rulebook, it seems as though if only two teams are tied, the individual comparison is used to break that tie, hence UNO as a #3 seed and 12th overall, and Michigan as a #4 seed and 13th overall.

While one could make a case to swap UND and DU, I think the committee will do whatever it can to get as much attendance in St. Louis as possible. The other three regionals should be fine, but St. Louis is going to be a trainwreck attendance wise. With the current PWR, Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Miami are all bus trips to St. Louis. However, I think it's almost a given that Wisconsin will be placed in the Green Bay Regional (also a bus trip and basically home ice atmosphere for the Badgers). Obviously there is still a lot of hockey left to be played, but if the season ended today, I think we'd be shipped to St. Louis.

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St Louis is closer for Denver and Green Bay is closer for UND so it only makes sense to me to send us to GB and Denver to St. Louis. As for Duluth, if they are a second seed they usually get matched up with their respective 1 seed (1-8, 2-7, 3-6, 4-5) so as of right now I would put them with Denver. I think that is how it is supposed to happen and then if they are worried about attendance they can switch stuff around.

Minor point of order: Grand Forks is closer to St Louis than Denver. (721 vs 768 miles, by air, airport to airport)

Besides that, Green Bay will sell out with the Badgers in town, regardless of who else goes there. But St Louis really NEEDS fans who travel, and that's why I think UND gets sent to St Louis - as long as we are a #1 or a #2 seed.

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Minor point of order: Grand Forks is closer to St Louis than Denver. (721 vs 768 miles, by air, airport to airport)

Besides that, Green Bay will sell out with the Badgers in town, regardless of who else goes there. But St Louis really NEEDS fans who travel, and that's why I think UND gets sent to St Louis - as long as we are a #1 or a #2 seed.

I meant that for Denver the closest regional is St Louis and for UND the closest regional is Green Bay but you are right that probably won't matter because they will fly anyways.

Who would you guys want to avoid in the regional? Probably don't want to face Wisconsin in GB or face BC anywhere.

Interesting that the last 4 teams to beat UND in the NCAAs could all get #1 seeds. (Yale, BC, New Hampshire, Denver)

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Minor point of order: Grand Forks is closer to St Louis than Denver. (721 vs 768 miles, by air, airport to airport)

Besides that, Green Bay will sell out with the Badgers in town, regardless of who else goes there. But St Louis really NEEDS fans who travel, and that's why I think UND gets sent to St Louis - as long as we are a #1 or a #2 seed.

Agree with the reasoning you proposed.

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I have always disliked the Pairwise system but after yet another Yale drubbing by a sub TUC team and then seeing them still a # 1 is getting to the realm of .......come on.....territory.

Such complaints are going to fall on deaf ears for a little while, because people have been making them all season, even when Yale was clearly the runaway leader. However, they are definitely starting to slip in objective rankings other than PWR. They fell to #2 in RPI (still just ahead of UND), but plummeted to #5 in KRACH (where UND took over the #1 slot).

Looks like Yale has about 50% chance of dropping if they lose tonight, 25% even if they win. However, some of that may be a temporary effect of dropping below 10 games vs. TUCs if one of their TUC opponents drops out of consideration (e.g. RPI beats Cornell).

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St. Louis would be great for Sioux fans if there happened to be an NHL game around the same time (obviously not the same day :lol: ) as you could see TJ!

Blues play Thurs. night vs. Oilers (I believe). West regional Fri./ Sat.

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