171 replies to this topic

[MissSioux85]

Saw this on USCHO this morning.

Volatility on the edge of TUC

Quote

Robert Morris’ loss Thursday night to Canisius had a big effect on North Dakota’s PairWise ranking. The Colonials dropped as a Team Under Consideration (TUC) when their RPI fell below .500 in the 5–4 defeat. That cost the Fighting Sioux two wins against TUC (causing them to lose that comparison against Denver) and a few decimal points in RPI (causing them to lose the RPI comparison vs. Boston College), moving North Dakota to fifth in the PairWise and out of an NCAA regional No. 1 seed.

Why does this matter now? Because it has implications for the final few games of the season. Robert Morris is likely to stay right around .500 in the RPI as it battles for its first AHA title. The Colonials could return as a TUC with a decent regular-season finish and a successful Atlantic Hockey playoff run.

North Dakota fans may find themselves keeping tabs on Atlantic Hockey playoff results to see whether those two wins against RoMo at the Ralph in January will help the Sioux or not.

[jimdahl]

MissSioux85, on 04 February 2011 - 10:59 AM, said:

Saw this on USCHO this morning.

Volatility on the edge of TUC

Yeah, I saw that too. He's not wrong in the facts, UND did drop two spots, but it's not really as important as you might think just reading that post. As I mentioned in the weekend prediction, UND's comparison wins over Denver and BC were hanging by a thread; they temporarily flipped due to this minor move, but the outcome at the end of the weekend will still be determined by those teams' own performances. If BC and Denver win, they'll hold onto those comparisons (which they would've taken whether Robert Morris won or lost). If BC and Denver lose, those comparisons will flip back to UND.

Come Monday, whether Robert Morris won or lost won't have had any direct effect on UND's ranking. In the long run, there are currently at least 4 teams within .01 of .500 in RPI who UND has a winning record against (Alaska, St. Cloud, Bemidji, Robert Morris) -- how many of those end up above and below the TUC line will have a small impact. (AA will also be in that camp if UND emerges with a winning record vs. them).

[stickboy1956]

jimdahl, on 04 February 2011 - 11:17 AM, said:

Yeah, I saw that too. He's not wrong in the facts, UND did drop two spots, but it's not really as important as you might think just reading that post. As I mentioned in the weekend prediction, UND's comparison wins over Denver and BC were hanging by a thread; they temporarily flipped due to this minor move, but the outcome at the end of the weekend will still be determined by those teams' own performances. If BC and Denver win, they'll hold onto those comparisons (which they would've taken whether Robert Morris won or lost). If BC and Denver lose, those comparisons will flip back to UND.

Come Monday, whether Robert Morris won or lost won't have had any direct effect on UND's ranking. In the long run, there are currently at least 4 teams within .01 of .500 in RPI who UND has a winning record against (Alaska, St. Cloud, Bemidji, Robert Morris) -- how many of those end up above and below the TUC line will have a small impact. (AA will also be in that camp if UND emerges with a winning record vs. them).

Great work as always.

We all must remember that the only PWR that matters is the last one.

[Runninwiththedogs]

jimdahl, on 04 February 2011 - 11:17 AM, said:

Yeah, I saw that too. He's not wrong in the facts, UND did drop two spots, but it's not really as important as you might think just reading that post. As I mentioned in the weekend prediction, UND's comparison wins over Denver and BC were hanging by a thread; they temporarily flipped due to this minor move, but the outcome at the end of the weekend will still be determined by those teams' own performances. If BC and Denver win, they'll hold onto those comparisons (which they would've taken whether Robert Morris won or lost). If BC and Denver lose, those comparisons will flip back to UND.

Come Monday, whether Robert Morris won or lost won't have had any direct effect on UND's ranking. In the long run, there are currently at least 4 teams within .01 of .500 in RPI who UND has a winning record against (Alaska, St. Cloud, Bemidji, Robert Morris) -- how many of those end up above and below the TUC line will have a small impact. (AA will also be in that camp if UND emerges with a winning record vs. them).

Jim, I think you posted this earlier when the whole re-definition of TUC came out, but how many teams are usually at .500 RPI or better, come season end?

[jimdahl]

Runninwiththedogs, on 04 February 2011 - 12:08 PM, said:

Jim, I think you posted this earlier when the whole re-definition of TUC came out, but how many teams are usually at .500 RPI or better, come season end?

That's a great question, I never really though of the fact that it could vary (so it must have been someone else who posted it).

Nonetheless, I have the historical rankings handy, so here's what I count for the last Monday each March:
2010: 31
2009: 29
2008: 31
2007: 28
2006: 28
2005: 27
2004: 30

So, the last few weeks that it's been 32-34 would apparently be unusually high.

[Runninwiththedogs]

jimdahl, on 04 February 2011 - 12:39 PM, said:

That's a great question, I never really though of the fact that it could vary (so it must have been someone else who posted it).

Nonetheless, I have the historical rankings handy, so here's what I count for the last Monday each March:
2010: 31
2009: 29
2008: 31
2007: 28
2006: 28
2005: 27
2004: 30

So, the last few weeks that it's been 32-34 would apparently be unusually high.

Oh, you truly are the best in the business at PWR. I bow to the master.

I wonder, though, if at this point in the season during the seasons you listed, there were more teams with a .500 RPI and that the number shrinks as the end of the season approaches.

[ihatethegophers]

So who should we be rooting for this weekend?

UMN v UMD
CC v DU
U Mass v BC
Harvard and Dartmouth v Yale

EDIT: I didn't actually read the article Jim wrote.

I'll be cheering for CC, BU, and *shutters* the gophers.

[Crevec]

ihatethegophers, on 04 February 2011 - 07:55 PM, said:

I'll be cheering for CC, BU, and *shutters* the gophers.

You don't have to cheer for the gophers, which I agree does make me a little nauseous. Instead you should cheer for bulldog misfortune. And it doesn't matter which kind, Yale or Duluth, because I would like to see them both lose.

[fargosioux]

CHN shows us at #2 in the Pairwise after the Denver loss to CC.

[fargosioux]

If the season ended today, Yale, BC, and UNH would all be #1 seeds. That would mean BC would get sent West for the regional, something that hasn't happened since 2000 when they played at Mariucci.

[Oxbow6]

If DU and UND are #1 seeds and UMD is a #2 seed, as it sits now, who gets sent to St. Louis and Green Bay for the #1 seed. I think for gate revenue, UND goes to St. Louis and DU and UMD go to Green Bay? Thoughts...

[ihatethegophers]

Oxbow6, on 12 February 2011 - 08:20 AM, said:

If DU and UND are #1 seeds and UMD is a #2 seed, as it sits now, who gets sent to St. Louis and Green Bay for the #1 seed. I think for gate revenue, UND goes to St. Louis and DU and UMD go to Green Bay? Thoughts...

St Louis is closer for Denver and Green Bay is closer for UND so it only makes sense to me to send us to GB and Denver to St. Louis. As for Duluth, if they are a second seed they usually get matched up with their respective 1 seed (1-8, 2-7, 3-6, 4-5) so as of right now I would put them with Denver. I think that is how it is supposed to happen and then if they are worried about attendance they can switch stuff around.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

ihatethegophers, on 12 February 2011 - 08:59 AM, said:

St Louis is closer for Denver and Green Bay is closer for UND so it only makes sense to me to send us to GB and Denver to St. Louis. As for Duluth, if they are a second seed they usually get matched up with their respective 1 seed (1-8, 2-7, 3-6, 4-5) so as of right now I would put them with Denver. I think that is how it is supposed to happen and then if they are worried about attendance they can switch stuff around.

Well, a flight is a flight, so it doesn't really matter if Green Bay is closer for UND and St. Louis is closer for Denver.

Generally, they try to match up the #2 seeds with their #1 counterpart as well. Saying that, given the teams that are currently in the tournament, I think we'll see some odd looking brackets for integrity purposes.

Here is what I have given the current PWR:

Bridgeport:
#1 Yale vs #16 Atlantic Hockey AQ
#7 Union vs #12 UNO*

Manchester:
#2 BC vs #14 Dartmouth
#8 UNH vs #9 RPI

Green Bay:
#4 Denver vs #13 Michigan*
#6 Merrimack vs #11 Wisconsin

St. Louis:
#3 UND vs #15 Miami
#5 UMD vs #10 Notre Dame

*UNO and Michigan are tied for 12th in the PWR. Michigan has a higher RPI, while UNO wins the individual comparison. There is a little confusion on how ties are broken between two teams. We know if there are three or more, that RPI is used, but according to the rulebook, it seems as though if only two teams are tied, the individual comparison is used to break that tie, hence UNO as a #3 seed and 12th overall, and Michigan as a #4 seed and 13th overall.

While one could make a case to swap UND and DU, I think the committee will do whatever it can to get as much attendance in St. Louis as possible. The other three regionals should be fine, but St. Louis is going to be a trainwreck attendance wise. With the current PWR, Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Miami are all bus trips to St. Louis. However, I think it's almost a given that Wisconsin will be placed in the Green Bay Regional (also a bus trip and basically home ice atmosphere for the Badgers). Obviously there is still a lot of hockey left to be played, but if the season ended today, I think we'd be shipped to St. Louis.

[farce poobah]

ihatethegophers, on 12 February 2011 - 08:59 AM, said:

St Louis is closer for Denver and Green Bay is closer for UND so it only makes sense to me to send us to GB and Denver to St. Louis. As for Duluth, if they are a second seed they usually get matched up with their respective 1 seed (1-8, 2-7, 3-6, 4-5) so as of right now I would put them with Denver. I think that is how it is supposed to happen and then if they are worried about attendance they can switch stuff around.

Minor point of order: Grand Forks is closer to St Louis than Denver. (721 vs 768 miles, by air, airport to airport)

Besides that, Green Bay will sell out with the Badgers in town, regardless of who else goes there. But St Louis really NEEDS fans who travel, and that's why I think UND gets sent to St Louis - as long as we are a #1 or a #2 seed.

[ihatethegophers]

farce poobah, on 12 February 2011 - 10:24 AM, said:

Minor point of order: Grand Forks is closer to St Louis than Denver. (721 vs 768 miles, by air, airport to airport)

Besides that, Green Bay will sell out with the Badgers in town, regardless of who else goes there. But St Louis really NEEDS fans who travel, and that's why I think UND gets sent to St Louis - as long as we are a #1 or a #2 seed.

I meant that for Denver the closest regional is St Louis and for UND the closest regional is Green Bay but you are right that probably won't matter because they will fly anyways.

Who would you guys want to avoid in the regional? Probably don't want to face Wisconsin in GB or face BC anywhere.

Interesting that the last 4 teams to beat UND in the NCAAs could all get #1 seeds. (Yale, BC, New Hampshire, Denver)

[Oxbow6]

farce poobah, on 12 February 2011 - 10:24 AM, said:

Minor point of order: Grand Forks is closer to St Louis than Denver. (721 vs 768 miles, by air, airport to airport)

Besides that, Green Bay will sell out with the Badgers in town, regardless of who else goes there. But St Louis really NEEDS fans who travel, and that's why I think UND gets sent to St Louis - as long as we are a #1 or a #2 seed.

Agree with the reasoning you proposed.

[Frozen4sioux]

I have always disliked the Pairwise system but after yet another Yale drubbing by a sub TUC team and then seeing them still a # 1 is getting to the realm of .......come on.....territory.

I'm surprised they don't schedule the ecac club teams to pile up some more wins.

[Runninwiththedogs]

St. Louis would be great for Sioux fans if there happened to be an NHL game around the same time (obviously not the same day ) as you could see TJ!

[jimdahl]

Frozen4sioux, on 12 February 2011 - 11:59 AM, said:

I have always disliked the Pairwise system but after yet another Yale drubbing by a sub TUC team and then seeing them still a # 1 is getting to the realm of .......come on.....territory.

Such complaints are going to fall on deaf ears for a little while, because people have been making them all season, even when Yale was clearly the runaway leader. However, they are definitely starting to slip in objective rankings other than PWR. They fell to #2 in RPI (still just ahead of UND), but plummeted to #5 in KRACH (where UND took over the #1 slot).

Looks like Yale has about 50% chance of dropping if they lose tonight, 25% even if they win. However, some of that may be a temporary effect of dropping below 10 games vs. TUCs if one of their TUC opponents drops out of consideration (e.g. RPI beats Cornell).

[Oxbow6]

Runninwiththedogs, on 12 February 2011 - 12:18 PM, said:

St. Louis would be great for Sioux fans if there happened to be an NHL game around the same time (obviously not the same day ) as you could see TJ!

Blues play Thurs. night vs. Oilers (I believe). West regional Fri./ Sat.