DI Conference Speculation

[star2city]

Twitter and message board rumors are that the Big East will add Memphis, very soon.

Also, Boise St to the MWC this spring is more and more seen as a "sure" thing, with the MWC also picking up Houston and Fresno St.

If those two moves both happen, CUSA and the WAC would be experiencing some major shifts.

CUSA would lose Memphis and Houston. CUSA would have to add two schools from a number of candidates: La Tech, Middle Tenn St., W Ky, N Texas, FIU, FAU and possibly even South Alabama (just now starting football), Georgia St, Charlotte (hasn't officially started football yet) or even Missouri State if it moved to FBS. The eastern part of CUSA (ECU, Marshall, UCF) has significant travel issues and wants more eastern teams. The western part of CUSA would prefer a footprint similar to the old SWC.

The WAC could lose Boise St, and possibly Fresno St and La Tech, forcing it to add back three teams. Sac St, Cal Poly, UC Davis, Montana, and Montana St could all possibly be on the move up (even with the current FCS to FBS moratorium.)

If the WAC has to add three, Great West football would likely end, and Southern Utah could finally make the move from the Summit to the Big Sky.

[bincitysioux]

There is a dude over at AGS that is pretty convinced that Texas-PanAm is adding football. His source is apparently a MySpace page.

Seriously that would be great if UTPA added football in the GWC, or Utah Valley which seems much more realistic with the growth that that school has undergone in the last 10-15 years. The Great West needs football teams in a bad way.

Regarding the Mountain West, I can't really see them adding anyone beyond Boise St. That would put them 10. They all broke away from the WAC in the first place because it got so big.

If the WAC ever does add a team in the near future, talking within the next 5-7 years, I would think Sac St. would be most likely. It would be an upgrade geographically from Sac St. standpoint. I think FBS is alot farther off for Cal Poly or UC Davis, unless Davis decides it wants to get in a race with Sacramento to be the first from that market to get to the FBS level. I think Davis intends to be in the FBS someday, but it is a long term plan, like 15+ years out. Davis or Poly would be relunctant to leave the Big West unless the timing was perfect, and they had all of their ducks in a row so to speak.

The WAC would love to have Montana, but I'm not so sure that the administration is nearly as serious about looking at a move to FBS as are a handful of posters on Egriz. Montana St. won't leave FCS unless Montana does.

Of course if you are right, and the WAC goes down to 7, or even 6, members in one off-season, they could get pretty aggressive in targeting Big Sky and Big West/Great West schools.

[star2city]

There is a dude over at AGS that is pretty convinced that Texas-PanAm is adding football. His source is apparently a MySpace page.

Seriously that would be great if UTPA added football in the GWC, or Utah Valley which seems much more realistic with the growth that that school has undergone in the last 10-15 years. The Great West needs football teams in a bad way.

I'd be shocked if UTPA or UVU added football: it takes huge amount of money and neither school has old enough alumni to manage that. UVU is in the shadow of BYU: doubt many would care.

Regarding the Mountain West, I can't really see them adding anyone beyond Boise St. That would put them 10. They all broke away from the WAC in the first place because it got so big.

Boise St performance over the past five years gets the MWC a BCS auto bid. Houston and Fresno also raise the MWC's average, but more importantly, give access to media markets and recruiting. TCU needs another Texas team. San Diego St needs a true rival.

If the WAC ever does add a team in the near future, talking within the next 5-7 years, I would think Sac St. would be most likely. It would be an upgrade geographically from Sac St. standpoint. I think FBS is alot farther off for Cal Poly or UC Davis, unless Davis decides it wants to get in a race with Sacramento to be the first from that market to get to the FBS level. I think Davis intends to be in the FBS someday, but it is a long term plan, like 15+ years out. Davis or Poly would be relunctant to leave the Big West unless the timing was perfect, and they had all of their ducks in a row so to speak.

Davis and Poly are appealing schools academically. When the SunBelt needed schools, it was allowed to add FIU and FAU, even though neither had the required 15,000 seat stadium. Being residential campuses, UC Davis and Poly have alumni that care about athletics: Sac St as a commuter school doesn't.

The WAC would love to have Montana, but I'm not so sure that the administration is nearly as serious about looking at a move to FBS as are a handful of posters on Egriz. Montana St. won't leave FCS unless Montana does.

Of course if you are right, and the WAC goes down to 7, or even 6, members in one off-season, they could get pretty aggressive in targeting Big Sky and Big West/Great West schools.

See other thread on Montana. O'Day has changed his tune on FBS: before he vehemently denied interest. Now he's open to it.

[bincitysioux]

I'd be shocked if UTPA or UVU added football: it takes huge amount of money and neither school has old enough alumni to manage that. UVU is in the shadow of BYU: doubt many would care.

Agreed on both points. Just pointing out that the GWC needs FB members. Utah Valley has grown at a progression similar to that of Boise State in the 80's and 90's. If a current GWC member has the gumption to try it, UVU seems the most likely to try. Their athletic department as a whole seems to be very well run.

Boise St performance over the past five years gets the MWC a BCS auto bid. Houston and Fresno also raise the MWC's average, but more importantly, give access to media markets and recruiting. TCU needs another Texas team. San Diego St needs a true rival.

BYU and Utah are the traditionally dominant teams, while TCU is a burgeoning power. Adding Boise St. gives 4 real BCS threats, but also means the top teams will beating up on each other more. Houston and Fresno could clutter things even more. The biggest advantage to going to 12 teams would be to allow for a lucrative conference title game, but if the balance of power started to shift away from BYU and Utah, I could see those schools organizing another coup. With the addition of Boise St., it would put 3 of the 4 power programs in the Northern tier of the conference.

Davis and Poly are appealing schools academically. When the SunBelt needed schools, it was allowed to add FIU and FAU, even though neither had the required 15,000 seat stadium. Being residential campuses, UC Davis and Poly have alumni that care about athletics: Sac St as a commuter school doesn't.

I don't argue with any of that either, except that Poly and Davis have a very budget friendly conference in the Big West. I think they'll take their time and build for a move, while Sac St. would be more apt to "wing it".

See other thread on Montana. O'Day has changed his tune on FBS: before he vehemently denied interest. Now he's open to it

I saw that after I made my last post. Definately some interesting comments.

[MplsBison]

MWC adding Boise, Fresno and Houston seems like a no-brainer to me. Add two very strong football programs in Boise and Fresno and add the Houston TV market to bolster the TV contract. Then they're up to 12 football teams and a championship game, probably in SLC, Denver or Vegas.

[star2city]

MWC adding Boise, Fresno and Houston seems like a no-brainer to me. Add two very strong football programs in Boise and Fresno and add the Houston TV market to bolster the TV contract. Then they're up to 12 football teams and a championship game, probably in SLC, Denver or Vegas.

Rumor: Boise, Fresno, and Nevada to MWC

TCU won't want to be the only Central Time Zone school, and Houston is too large a market. I still think Houston gets in over Nevada. With UNLV already in the MWC, Reno doesn't add much.

If the MWC does add three, the Big Sky and Great West football will both have a shakeup.

There's also persistent rumors that, if the MWC is closing in on a BCS bid, the PAC 10 will add Utah and Colorado. If the Big 12 loses Colorado, it would respond by taking either Colorado St (for the Denver media) or BYU. Losing two of Utah, Colorado St, or Utah would be a major blow to the MWC.

[MplsBison]

Boise and Fresno are no-brainers to me. Both are great football programs with strong fan support. Fresno gives SDSU an in-state rival and a gives the MWC a presence in Northern California (somewhat).

Nevada really adds nothing...IMO. Small market. MWC already has Las Vegas with UNLV.

I can only think of two reasons why Nevada would get it over Houston: 1) Nevada power brokers are forcing the MWC to take UNR in the same way that the ACC was forced to take Virginia Tech, 2) TCU black-balled Houston because they don't want any more BCS schools in Texas.

Neither would surprise me, but clearly the conference has much more to gain from adding Houston than Nevada, IMO.

[The Sicatoka]

I can only think of two reasons why Nevada would get it over Houston: 1) Nevada power brokers are forcing the MWC to take UNR in the same way that the ACC was forced to take Virginia Tech, 2) TCU black-balled Houston because they don't want any more BCS schools in Texas.

Question:

Does the MWC want to continue to have a Central Time Zone presence?

Yes, TCU is having an amazing football run, but if the MWC were to pick up Boise and Fresno that moves the MWC further west.

So, does the MWC want to continue to be spread over three time zones?

If not, taking Nevada would be a clear signal that TCU is too far east already.

[star2city]

Question:

Does the MWC want to continue to have a Central Time Zone presence?

Yes, TCU is having an amazing football run, but if the MWC were to pick up Boise and Fresno that moves the MWC further west.

So, does the MWC want to continue to be spread over three time zones?

If not, taking Nevada would be a clear signal that TCU is too far east already.

When the MWC enticed TCU to move over, supposedly there was a gentleman's understanding that at least one more central time zone team woould be added (either Houston or UTEP or possibly Tulsa - even Memphis has been mentioned). TCU needs a more natural rival and there is plenty of talent in Texas to go around. The MWC needs more presence in Texas for recruiting and for media coverage.

[MplsBison]

When the MWC enticed TCU to move over, supposedly there was a gentleman's understanding that at least one more central time zone team woould be added (either Houston or UTEP or possibly Tulsa - even Memphis has been mentioned). TCU needs a more natural rival and there is plenty of talent in Texas to go around. The MWC needs more presence in Texas for recruiting and for media coverage.

Which is everything I was thinking to (except the part about the gentleman's agreement).

So unless Houston's success this season has got TCU second guessing if they want another Texas BCS school in the conference, I can't for the life of me see Reno getting in over Houston. Unless, of course, the power brokers are calling in favors left and right to push UNR through.

[star2city]

Surprised at this:

Lincoln Memorial (TN) reportedly planning DI move to Atlantic Sun

The (LMU) Railsplitters currently compete in the NCAA Division II's South Atlantic Conference. But they are also reportedly planning a move to Division I and the Atlantic Sun Conference in 2011

Northern Kentucky and a DI move

[RD17]

Surprised at this:

Lincoln Memorial (TN) reportedly planning DI move to Atlantic Sun

Northern Kentucky and a DI move

I'm dumbfounded as to what the leadership at LMU could possibly be thinking. LMU has less than 1500 undergraduates, is in a town of 5,000 people, has an athletic budget of $2 million and an endowment of less than $50 million. And this is a D-I school? Wow.

Haven't they been paying attention to what has happened at Centenary or Birmingham Southern? Birmingham Southern has twice the endowment of Lincoln Memorial and the reason they moved down to D-III was because D-I was putting too much of a strain on the overall financial stability of the school.

I do believe, however, that NKU will eventually move to D-I. NKU's conference (GLVC) is increasingly becoming a league dominated by smaller private schools and the GLVC footprint continues to shift further west as it adds new members (William Jewell from the Kansas City area was just admitted this year). With its new arena and the Cincinnati market, NKU would likely be a pretty attractive candidate to several different D-I conferences.

[star2city]

Maybe the Big 10 is really considering going to 14 to 16 members. (see previous link in hockey section). Reports are that the SEC is looking a pre-empting the Big Ten on a move.

There are really only three conferences that are rock-solid: PAC10, SEC, and Big10. The huge fish might actually eat portions of the large fish, like the ACC and Big 12.

Imagine the Big 10 adding the following: Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Syracuse/Rutgers. The western division of the Big 10 would basically be the heart of the Big 12:

Texas

Okla

Kansas

Missouri

Iowa

Minnesota

Wisconsin

Northwestern

With the east being:

Illinois

Indiana

Purdue

Michigan

Mich St

Ohio St

Penn St

Syracuse

All the expansion schools would be AAU (high academics and high level research) except Oklahoma.

The Big Ten would gain the key states of NY, Tx, and Mo, and the Big Ten Network would profit handsomely. (The Big Ten Network gains $1/month per cable subscriber in Big Ten states, but only $1/yr in non Big Ten states.) With all the money and power accurued, the Big Ten would then effectively call the shots with the NCAA.

To respond to the Big Ten's power grab, or to pre-empt it, the SEC would almost have to be in four additional states (like TX, MO, NC, VA). The SEC would likely want to pre-empt this change by taking four: like Texas A&M, Okla ST, possibly fight for Missouri or Oklahoma, consider Va Tech, or maybe possibly pry NC State away from the shadows of UNC and Duke. Texas does not want to join the SEC because of academic issues (only Vanderbilt, Florida, and Georgia are of Big Ten quality).

[andtheHomeoftheSIOUX!!]

Maybe the Big 10 is really considering going to 14 to 16 members. (see previous link in hockey section). Reports are that the SEC is looking a pre-empting the Big Ten on a move.

There are really only three conferences that are rock-solid: PAC10, SEC, and Big10. The huge fish might actually eat portions of the large fish, like the ACC and Big 12.

Imagine the Big 10 adding the following: Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Syracuse/Rutgers. The western division of the Big 10 would basically be the heart of the Big 12:

Texas

Okla

Kansas

Missouri

Iowa

Minnesota

Wisconsin

Northwestern

With the east being:

Illinois

Indiana

Purdue

Michigan

Mich St

Ohio St

Penn St

Syracuse

All the expansion schools would be AAU (high academics and high level research) except Oklahoma.

The Big Ten would gain the key states of NY, Tx, and Mo, and the Big Ten Network would profit handsomely. (The Big Ten Network gains $1/month per cable subscriber in Big Ten states, but only $1/yr in non Big Ten states.) With all the money and power accurued, the Big Ten would then effectively call the shots with the NCAA.

To respond to the Big Ten's power grab, or to pre-empt it, the SEC would almost have to be in four additional states (like TX, MO, NC, VA). The SEC would likely want to pre-empt this change by taking four: like Texas A&M, Okla ST, possibly fight for Missouri or Oklahoma, consider Va Tech, or maybe possibly pry NC State away from the shadows of UNC and Duke. Texas does not want to join the SEC because of academic issues (only Vanderbilt, Florida, and Georgia are of Big Ten quality).

Where does this leave the Pac 10 than?

[star2city]

Where does this leave the Pac 10 than?

Would suspect that the Pac10 would add Utah and Colorado, which are the only western schools that meet their academic requirements as well help with media and athletic. (UC-Davis, UC-San Diego, US-Irvine, and UC-Santa Barbara meet academic requirements, but wouldn't add much to the PAC10 television contracts.)

Keep in mind that this is only rumor and speculation, but it is known that when the SWC broke up, Texas wanted in the PAC10 (rebuked by Stanford) and wanted in the Big 10 (which had a moratorium and considered Texas too far removed). Texas considered the SEC beneath them and still does, but at the time the SEC had a deal to add Houston and Texas A&M to it's ranks if Texas gained Pac10 or Big10 membership.

SWC breakup aftermath

"Texas wanted desperately the academic patina that the Pac 10 yielded," recalls Berdahl, who went on to serve as chancellor at Pac-10 member California-Berkeley. "To be associated with UCLA, Stanford and Cal in academics was very desirable."

Still, expansion in the Pac-10 depended on unanimous approval of the member schools. And Stanford, which had long battled UT in athletics as well as academics, objected. For UT, the way west never materialized.

Course correction

The Longhorns next turned to the Big Ten.

Having added Penn State in 1990, the Big Ten was now made of universities that, in the view of UT officials, matched UT's profile — large state schools with strong academic reputations. Berdahl liked the fact that 10 conference members belonged to the American Association of Universities.

Yet, distance remained a disadvantage. Iowa, the closest Big Ten school to Austin, was 856 miles away — but the appeal of having 10 of 12 schools in the same time zone was seen as a plus.

But after adding Penn State in 1990, Big Ten officials had put a four-year moratorium on expansion. Although admitting interest, Big Ten bosses ultimately rejected UT's overtures.

All just speculation, but the Big Ten adds Syracuse, Texas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma - so the Big Ten is in continuous states from Austin to Syracuse.

SEC adds Texas A&M, Oklahoma St, Va Tech, NC State (some school in NC to gain significant exposure in that top-10 population state- East Carolina if they had to).

The rest of the conferences would almost implode.

The ACC would need to add two: Rutgers and Pittsburgh.

The Big 12 would be down to Iowa St, Kansas St, Texas Tech, Baylor, and Nebraska. They add BYU, TCU, Houston, Colorado St, Boise St.

Memphis, Louisville, Cincinnati, W Va, Connecticut, South Florida, Central Florida, Temple, East Carolina reform the Big East football conference.

What's left of the MWC and WAC merge.

CUSA becomes another mess. A number of schools move up from FCS to FBS.

The rich get richer. The poor get poorer.

[MplsBison]

I guess I don't really get where this talk of the Big Ten taking some of the Big 8 schools comes from. Yeah, Mizzou, Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa State are pretty good academic schools and have pretty good athletic departments, but it seems like the Big Ten is looking at either Syracuse, Rutgers or Pitt for eastern expansion (IMO).

[The Sicatoka]

Remember my mantra:

When all is confusing; when nothing makes sense; when up seems down and down seems up ...

Stop.

Breathe.

Rise above and

Look down and in at the situation disinterestedly.

And then ... Follow the Benjamins.

All will become clear.

[star2city]

I guess I don't really get where this talk of the Big Ten taking some of the Big 8 schools comes from. Yeah, Mizzou, Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa State are pretty good academic schools and have pretty good athletic departments, but it seems like the Big Ten is looking at either Syracuse, Rutgers or Pitt for eastern expansion (IMO).

The Big Picture is that the Big Ten Network could be a major player in sports television, even competing with ESPN in collegiate events. Remember FOX has 50% interest in the Big Ten Network, and could use it as way of competing with ESPN. This would be a play to make the Big Ten THE conference that calls all shots at the college level. The NCAA would be powerless against it. Right now, other conferences, especially the SEC wield a lot of power: this would make the Big Ten the economic powerhouse. This wouldn't be just about football: if basketball schools like Kansas and Syracuse are added, the basketball stature of the Big 10 would jump a level.

Consider the following: adding NY, MO, KS, OK, TX to the Big Ten Network would add a potential of 22 million homes to the Big Ten Network. If the Big Ten Network even gets half the homes to be viewers, based on a $12 annual cost any cable/satellite network must pay, that's $60 million more flowing into the Big Ten coffers just in subscription fees (50% goes to FOX). (Remember that outside of states with Big Ten membership, cable/satellite are only assessed $1 /yr - adding Texas and Syracuse means immense new revenue from those states). Texas is a huge centerpiece to the puzzle, based on the population and growth of Texas, and could even add more viewers than Notre Dame. Supposedly, the Big Ten wants it members to be in states that are continguous. By adding Missouri, Kansas, and Oklahoma, it would meet that criteria and give Texas existing conference rivals.

[The Sicatoka]

Supposedly, the Big Ten wants it members to be in states that are continguous.

And at one time the thought was "Great Lakes" states.

If the Big Ten could get Texas (and the money that would come with) the "Great Lakes" or "contiguous" thing would be gone in a flash.

[Shawn-O]

Here's an interesting article* about the prospects of Big 10 schools seceding from the NCAA.

http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1350...pg=7144,2783111

*from 1954!

[darell1976]

Here's an interesting article* about the prospects of Big 10 schools seceding from the NCAA.

http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1350...pg=7144,2783111

*from 1954!

I like the car ad on the opposite page that says $25 down, or a new car for $299 down and 41 bucks a month. I wish those were the prices today.

[bincitysioux]

Nickname issue aside, neither the Men's nor Women's basketball programs are doing much to make UND more attractive to the Summit League...........

[Smoggy]

I love all the speculation and justifications.

While Texas might have been interested at one point, don't they have a pretty good thing now? Huge rivalry with Oklahoma and in state rivals with Tech and A & M and Baylor. Texas is like Minny is in hockey. Everyone (almost) claims them as a rival.

Granted they could still play non-conference games with these "rivals."

[Smoggy]

Great blog breakdown of the schools that could be added to BigTeleven expansion. He also finds that the adjoining state thing is a myth so Texas and only Texas could be picked up.

[star2city]

Great blog breakdown of the schools that could be added to BigTeleven expansion. He also finds that the adjoining state thing is a myth so Texas and only Texas could be picked up.

Texas couldn't withstand the in-state political firestorm that would occur if they left for the Big Ten without regional rivals. The Big Ten could, for all practical purposes, destroy the Big 12 if it took its crown jewels: Texas, Oklahoma (football), Kansas (basketball), Missouri (Gateway between Big 10 and 12)