UNDLAW Posted February 22, 2006 Share Posted February 22, 2006 There has to be some mathematical genius who can make a "what if" for the remaining games in the regular season and conference tournaments so we can project who will make it (i.e. what it will take for the Sioux to make it!) to the National Tournament. A "what if" that takes into account TUC and RPI and gives us a final "what if" PWR for us to drool over. As a legally trained technician (i.e. attorney) I am TERRIBLE at both math and statistics. Is there anyone out there with the IQ, know how, and time to help us idiots out? PLEASE!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted February 22, 2006 Share Posted February 22, 2006 Whelan used to do this at his site, then later at USCHO, but I don't know what effect his defection to CHN will have on that. It was a great tool in that it did precisely what you're asking for (you edit the full set of game outcomes and it gives you the PWR), but I also quickly realized it didn't answer the questions I wanted in that you laboriously had to test nearly every permutation for the outcome of the 100's of remaining games, because any one of them can profoundly shift PWR. Even with just a couple weekends and the conference tournaments remaining, that's hundreds of games, which is an incalculable number of outcomes. I believe, for that reason, YATC is usually only available just before conference tournaments (when most of PWR is pretty much decided, yet you still have to explore hundreds of permutations). I've been chasing that problem for a brief time, myself, but would certainly love to see someone else ( ) provide it so I can get the benefit of the information myself without having to complete tackling the math... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagard Posted February 22, 2006 Share Posted February 22, 2006 One thing you can look at is here: http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?200...kings.diy.shtml You can click the "Specify Results" button and add whatever games you like. It's not perfect but you can get a feel for certain scenarios. I added the following for UND, which was splitting with DU, sweep Tech, sweep SCSU, lose to CC. 20060224 ND 1 DU 0 WC 20060225 ND 1 DU 2 WC 20060303 ND 1 MT 0 WC 20060304 ND 1 MT 0 WC 20060310 ND 1 SC 0 WC 20060311 ND 1 SC 0 WC 20060317 ND 1 CC 2 WC Not factoring in other teams results this result would take UND up to #9 in PWR. Taking three games to beat SCSU leaves UND in 15th. However you can also specify other TUCs (Bemidji) and try many permutations. To me it seems like UND is going to have to sweep a TUC. Either sweep DU, sweep the 1st round Playoff series, or win twice at the X. Three points vs. Tech is a must as well due to the Northern Michigan comparison. If nothing else you can kill a lot of time with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted February 22, 2006 Share Posted February 22, 2006 One thing you can look at is here: http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?200...kings.diy.shtml You can click the "Specify Results" button and add whatever games you like. It's not perfect but you can get a feel for certain scenarios. I added the following for UND, which was splitting with DU, sweep Tech, sweep SCSU, lose to CC. 20060224 ND 1 DU 0 WC 20060225 ND 1 DU 2 WC 20060303 ND 1 MT 0 WC 20060304 ND 1 MT 0 WC 20060310 ND 1 SC 0 WC 20060311 ND 1 SC 0 WC 20060317 ND 1 CC 2 WC Not factoring in other teams results this result would take UND up to #9 in PWR. Taking three games to beat SCSU leaves UND in 15th. However you can also specify other TUCs (Bemidji) and try many permutations. To me it seems like UND is going to have to sweep a TUC. Either sweep DU, sweep the 1st round Playoff series, or win twice at the X. Three points vs. Tech is a must as well due to the Northern Michigan comparison. If nothing else you can kill a lot of time with it. Are you a math wizard? It seems that you are really good at doing number and stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagard Posted February 22, 2006 Share Posted February 22, 2006 Are you a math wizard? It seems that you are really good at doing number and stats. No, I was decent at it a long time ago but not really anymore. Looking at a group of 7-9 for the REA regional, but no one is going to want to go without the Gophers. Jim is the wizard in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNDLAW Posted February 22, 2006 Author Share Posted February 22, 2006 One thing you can look at is here: http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?200...kings.diy.shtml You can click the "Specify Results" button and add whatever games you like. It's not perfect but you can get a feel for certain scenarios. I added the following for UND, which was splitting with DU, sweep Tech, sweep SCSU, lose to CC. 20060224 ND 1 DU 0 WC 20060225 ND 1 DU 2 WC 20060303 ND 1 MT 0 WC 20060304 ND 1 MT 0 WC 20060310 ND 1 SC 0 WC 20060311 ND 1 SC 0 WC 20060317 ND 1 CC 2 WC Not factoring in other teams results this result would take UND up to #9 in PWR. Taking three games to beat SCSU leaves UND in 15th. However you can also specify other TUCs (Bemidji) and try many permutations. To me it seems like UND is going to have to sweep a TUC. Either sweep DU, sweep the 1st round Playoff series, or win twice at the X. Three points vs. Tech is a must as well due to the Northern Michigan comparison. If nothing else you can kill a lot of time with it. That answers my question to an extent. However, regarding the (if we play) St. Cloud wins and losses and the following "rule" of RPI: "If a team defeats a weak opponent, it is possible for its RPI to go down despite the win. Starting in 2003-04, if this happens in a team's conference tournament, that game can be thrown out of the RPI calculation for that team. Any team where this has occured has been noted with an asterisk beside their RPI." One... the play-in should still count as the "Conference Tournament" under this rule and... Two... if we beat St. Cloud and, again, under the "rule," we can't drop in RPI. However, can it drop if we lose 1 of 3 to St. Cloud under the "rule." A strict reading would seem to point to yes, but a rationale reading of it would say no. Is it too early to start drinking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedGrn Posted February 22, 2006 Share Posted February 22, 2006 That answers my question to an extent. However, regarding the (if we play) St. Cloud wins and losses and the following "rule" of RPI: "If a team defeats a weak opponent, it is possible for its RPI to go down despite the win. Starting in 2003-04, if this happens in a team's conference tournament, that game can be thrown out of the RPI calculation for that team. Any team where this has occured has been noted with an asterisk beside their RPI." One... the play-in should still count as the "Conference Tournament" under this rule and... Two... if we beat St. Cloud and, again, under the "rule," we can't drop in RPI. However, can it drop if we lose 1 of 3 to St. Cloud under the "rule." A strict reading would seem to point to yes, but a rationale reading of it would say no. Is it too early to start drinking? It's never too early to start drinking. The question is, "Is it too late to quit drinking?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted February 22, 2006 Share Posted February 22, 2006 It's never too early to start drinking. The question is, "Is it too late to quit drinking?" I think that is possible. I can think of a couple of possibilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deedub Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 There has to be some mathematical genius who can make a "what if" for the remaining games in the regular season and conference tournaments so we can project who will make it (i.e. what it will take for the Sioux to make it!) to the National Tournament. A "what if" that takes into account TUC and RPI and gives us a final "what if" PWR for us to drool over. As a legally trained technician (i.e. attorney) I am TERRIBLE at both math and statistics. Is there anyone out there with the IQ, know how, and time to help us idiots out? PLEASE!!!! The USCHO website has some updated info on UND chances. It does not sound very good. Basically UND is sunk. If they sweep DU & MTU they could move up in the WCHA to 4th, then play a non-TUC team in the WCHA playoffs which in turn would lower their Pairwise. The only option is win the remainder of their games and then win the Final Five Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZSIOUX Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 The USCHO website has some updated info on UND chances. It does not sound very good. Basically UND is sunk. If they sweep DU & MTU they could move up in the WCHA to 4th, then play a non-TUC team in the WCHA playoffs which in turn would lower their Pairwise. The only option is win the remainder of their games and then win the Final Five uhh yeah and no, we could lose the rest of our regular season games and then win the final 5 and get a auto bid... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagard Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 The USCHO website has some updated info on UND chances. It does not sound very good. Basically UND is sunk. If they sweep DU & MTU they could move up in the WCHA to 4th, then play a non-TUC team in the WCHA playoffs which in turn would lower their Pairwise. The only option is win the remainder of their games and then win the Final Five UND is not sunk, whoever says so is wrong. They need to improve there TUC record. UND can do that in many ways: 1. Sweep DU. 2. Sweep 1st Rnd playoff series. 3. Win two of three at the X. 4. BSU win CHA. 5. MSU finish as a TUC. Obviously some of the items are beyond UND's control, but many are not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianvf Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 The USCHO website has some updated info on UND chances. It does not sound very good. Basically UND is sunk. If they sweep DU & MTU they could move up in the WCHA to 4th, then play a non-TUC team in the WCHA playoffs which in turn would lower their Pairwise. The only option is win the remainder of their games and then win the Final Five Ohio State has a crucial series this weekend with Northern Michigan. If OSU loses even one game, they stand a good chance at falling quite a few spots in the PWR (and falling below .500 on the year). OSU is currently at 13th in the PWR. St Lawrence and Harvard have a critical game as well. SLU is at 14, Harvard at 12 in the PWR. The loser of that game will fall in the PWR. Being that OSU, SLU, and Harvard are all directly in front of the Sioux in the PWR, they could move up a few spots just from the outcomes of those games. They need to take care of business against DU though first and foremost. The Sioux are not sunk. They are within 2 PWR spots of making it right now, and there is still a maximum of 10 Sioux games remaining (before the NCAA tourney), so lots can/will change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZSIOUX Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 so im guessing we are rooting for miami to win tonight and michigan state tonight as well?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 The USCHO website has some updated info on UND chances. It does not sound very good. Basically UND is sunk. If they sweep DU & MTU they could move up in the WCHA to 4th, then play a non-TUC team in the WCHA playoffs which in turn would lower their Pairwise. The only option is win the remainder of their games and then win the Final Five Me thinks this might be a troll or skippy and might need to post an alert, UND is very much alive in the NCAA picture. I think after the CCHA playoffs UND will definately move up in the RPI and PWR rankings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MafiaMan Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Strange things happen, however. A few years ago, you'll recall, UMD was on a tear near the end of the season, finished right on par with St Cloud State, swept St Cloud in the WCHA playoffs and wound up beating a very good Colorado College team for 3rd place at the final five...only to watch St Cloud, which had finished its season on an 0-6 tailspin, get an NCAA bid. They made it 0-7 the following weekend by getting beat by BU. NCAA logic? St Cloud's strong wins in October. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deedub Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Me thinks this might be a troll or skippy and might need to post an alert, UND is very much alive in the NCAA picture. I think after the CCHA playoffs UND will definately move up in the RPI and PWR rankings. http://www.uscho.com/news/id,12055/ThePair...dFeb222006.html Take a look for yourself. Not a troll or a skippy, just calls'em as I see's em Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Whoever said UND is in trouble correctly noticed a large point gap between UND and the teams immediately above us, but somewhat glibly assumed the only way to overcome that was to sweep out AND play another TUC in the WCHA playin. As sagard said, the biggest deal is indeed TUC, mostly because moving over the cliff instantly changes the number of comparisons for each team and dramatically shifts everyone's TUC comparisons. Without duplicating the events sagard mentioned, Duluth is very close to becoming a TUC. SOS improvements alone over the next 2 weeks will push them up to .4881. Get some wins against CC and UMN and they could be a TUC. Since UND is 4-0 vs. UMD, them becoming a TUC instantly bumps the Sioux to 11-12-1 on TUC. That + some wins against Denver + other teams' TUCs shifting could definitely give us some comparisons. However, even without TUC help, there are quite a few other comparisons UND can flip: Denver -- A sweep over Denver would give us the H2H, hence the comparison Michigan -- We can take the comparison by taking RPI by doing better vs our remaining 4 opponents than they do vs. Ferris (current RPI is .5456 vs. .5492) N. Michigan -- We can take the comparison by taking COP by sweeping M. Tech SCSU -- We can take the comparison by taking TUC by doing better v. Denver than they do v. Wisconsin CC -- though we're 3 points down in this comparison, there's a lot in play. Do better against Denver than they do and we can take both RPI and COP, taking the comparison. Duluth getting victories against CC is a double-bonus in that in addition to knocking CC's RPI down, it makes Duluth a TUC, which could help us win the comparison. Get a few of those and we're sitting right with Harvard / OSU. Though we lose the individual comparison with either of them right now, we also beat both of them on RPI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stack Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 A real easy one would be to have Bemidji State win the CHA tourney and automatically become a TUC. I sent an email to Jason Moy asking how that would change things as they stoood today and his response was that it jumped UND to 14th in the PWR. I think to really give us a chance we need to win one game in Denver, sweep Tech and then sweep the first round of the playoffs. If we do this I think we'll make the dance even if we lost the playin game at the WCHA final five. The reality though is we haven't beaten very many good teams this year: Minnesota 1-3 Wisconsin 0-2 St Cloud 1-3 CC 1-1 Denver 1-1 Harvard 1-1 (it would have been nice to have the World Junior boys here for this game. It hurts a lot in our PWR) Michigan State 0-1 Miami 1-0 We're supposed to be a better team late in the season after the experience the freshmen have gained so far. Let's see if we really are and beat Denver at least once. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nodakvindy Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Mankato also could become a TUC. I'd think a split with Wisconsin would make it for sure and possible with even just 1 point in the series. Also, if Bemidji wins the CHA tournament they become a TUC. One thing that could definitely occur though is the Sioux facing a situation where it would actually be more adventagous to win a 1st round series in three games rather than sweeping a team and preventing them from reaching TUC status. TUC is really a flawed category in the PWR. TUC RPI would be much fairer. UND played almost all of their TUC games against the top 10, so it's not surprising that their record isn't great. But I would say that 7-12-1 against the top ten teams is better that going say 2-4 against teams 1-10 and then 8-5 against 11-30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianvf Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Looks like we have a lot of teams to root for and against. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SIOUXELEVENS Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Looks like Haksto(according to the coaches show) has them thinking one game at a time which is the way the should approach it,treat every game like it could be your last. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slap Shot Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 My opinion of where UND will end up isn't based mathematically but based upon history. If memory serves me correctly it seems that PWR ratings for WCHA teams always tend to rise at the expense of other conferences - across the board - in February and March. imho it's based upon SOS and success in OOC games and I suppose my thoughts on this could be flawed, but if UND wins enough games they get in as we'll see teams such as OSU fall in the PWR and UND and DU flip a few comparisons late. Stating UND needs to win a few games is an "obvious" statement of course (win the Broadmoor and case closed) but my point is that I don't think they remain on the bubble vis a vis other non-WCHA teams after the next two weekends are complete barring a collapse on the ice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagies Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 The USCHO website has some updated info on UND chances. It does not sound very good. Basically UND is sunk. If they sweep DU & MTU they could move up in the WCHA to 4th, then play a non-TUC team in the WCHA playoffs which in turn would lower their Pairwise. I don't follow all these details like many others so I could be wrong on this. But I thought that you couldn't hurt your PWR rankings by playing a lesser team in your conference tourney? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slap Shot Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 I don't follow all these details like many others so I could be wrong on this. But I thought that you couldn't hurt your PWR rankings by playing a lesser team in your conference tourney? I'd be interested in an explanation as well because I've seen a similar quote, and believe the source for the quote was the USCHO web-site itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deedub Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 I don't follow all these details like many others so I could be wrong on this. But I thought that you couldn't hurt your PWR rankings by playing a lesser team in your conference tourney? I thought the same thing. I just read it on USCHO and posted a link earlier in the thread. Maybe the individual who wrote the article does not know up from down. If that is the case then he can go take a Denver and wipe his Wisconsin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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