Lets start speculating now

[tnt]

Anyone remember what brackets looked like this early last year? It would be interesting to see how much they changed. I would be willing to bet that a lot of things will change by then.

[sprig]

If UND gets through their regional they will have earned it. Very likely a tough first round game followed by the Gophers in the regional final.

Does anyone know how to avoid Ticketmaster charges @6.50 per ticket for the Western Regional games?

Ducking the REA $3.50 per ticket would be nice, but I'm guessing there is no shot at ducking that.

For regular season games buying directly at the box office saves you the ticketmaster "convenience" charge, but you still pay the REA facility charge. Assume the regional is the same, you can call and check at (701)777-4167.

[Doc Holliday]

I asked this over at gpl.com....

What if Minnesota, somehow, overtakes Wisconsin as the overall #1? (long shot, I know).

MI Tech is the host at Green Bay, not Wisconsin. It is not in stone that Wisconsin is sent to Green Bay. I do believe that Green Bay is closer to Minneapolis than Grand Forks.

Would the NCAA consider losing the almighty $ (the Gophers will travel, but they won't sell it out like the Badgers would) for bracket integrity and going by the rules?

I know Sioux fans know all about the NCAA and their principles......this may be the final test.

[sagard]

I asked this over at gpl.com....

What if Minnesota, somehow, overtakes Wisconsin as the overall #1? (long shot, I know).

MI Tech is the host at Green Bay, not Wisconsin. It is not in stone that Wisconsin is sent to Green Bay. I do believe that Green Bay is closer to Minneapolis than Grand Forks.

Would the NCAA consider losing the almighty $ (the Gophers will travel, but they won't sell it out like the Badgers would) for bracket integrity and going by the rules?

I know Sioux fans know all about the NCAA and their principles......this may be the final test.

For the Gophers to pass UW they would likely need to beat them two of three possible games and pass them in RPI. Both would be difficult propositions.

Even after that I think "Bracket Integrity" would have to come into play. UW playing their way down to the #4 overall seed combined with UND playing their way up to the #5 overall would do it.

The only other sticky point would be if the Gophers pass UW in PWR (unlikely) and UND came in as a #13 or #14 seed. I think the NCAA would avoid the 1st round matchup and put Miami in GF and send UW east.

That said I'm looking at tickets for the GF regional and will likely buy them this week.

[sprig]

That said I'm looking at tickets for the GF regional and will likely buy them this week.

So are you still coming to the REA if the Gophers go elsewhere?

[sagard]

So are you still coming to the REA if the Gophers go elsewhere?

If I end up buying the tickets, I'd probably end up using them no matter what. It might be tough if UND didn't make it as well, but from all I've heard it's worth the trip.

[NorthDakotaHockey]

If I end up buying the tickets, I'd probably end up using them no matter what. It might be tough if UND didn't make it as well, but from all I've heard it's worth the trip.

If I were still a bettin' man, and I thank the Good Lord everyday that I am not,

I would bet most anything on the likely fact that the Sioux and the Gophers will

be playing in The Ralph on March 25 for the right to go to Milwaukee.

That is why it is crucial for fence sitters to buy their tickets to the West Regional now.

Sagard, good choice on buying now. More people should be doing it.

/s/ The Ralph Ticket Office.

[Smoggy]

So who should we be rooting against this weekend?

I'm guessing DU, Harvard, Fairbanks.

[sagard]

I'm guessing DU, Harvard, Fairbanks.

Add BC and CC and your good to go. Truly the most important thing for UND is to take both games with SCSU this weekend. No ties, no losses.

[choyt3]

Add BC and CC and your good to go. Truly the most important thing for UND is to take both games with SCSU this weekend. No ties, no losses.

Well, it was a good plan anyway.

[sprig]

Well, it was a good plan anyway.

What a difference a weekend makes. Worrying about who the Sioux might get in "their" regional, to wondering if the Sioux will be in the tourney at all

[bertibm]

http://www.uscho.com/pdf/general/2006bracket.pdf

[sagard]

I posted this to the game thread vs. SCSU but it's more appropriate here.

After the Gophers series I figured the Sioux need to finish 8-6 heading into the Final Five to be a tourney team. They are now 2-2 since then, but as you point out the SCSU games hurt. I think the WCHA will get four teams and either the Sioux or DU will be the odd man out. Needless to say that series is huge.

A quick scan of the UND comparisons lost:

Fairbanks - UND needs to take over TUC currenty 6-11-1 vs. 7-11-3. 50/50.

BC - UND needs to pass them in RPI. Will be tough.

BU - UND needs to pass them in RPI and maintain CO. 50/50.

CC - UND needs to pass them in RPI and win the season series outright. Better sweep them to be sure.

DU - UND needs the sweep.

Ferris - UND needs to pass them in RPI. Should happen.

Harvard - Lost.

Miami - Lost.

Michigan - UND needs to pass them in RPI. Will be tough.

Mich State - UND needs to take over the CO. Will be very tough.

Minnesota - Lost.

Northern Michigan - Sioux need to sweep Tech.

SCSU - UND needs to take back both TUC and CO. This is a 50/50.

SLU - UND needs to pass them in RPI. Tossup.

Wisconsin - Lost.

Root against Fairbanks, Ferris, SLU, SCSU, CC, DU, BU, Michigan. Root for Bemidji in the playoffs.

To be sure of a spot in the field a team really only can afford 10-11 comparisons lost. 12 comparisons lost will usually make the field and 13 comparisons lost requires no conference upsets and maybe prevailing in a tie-break with some other team with 13 comparisons lost.

I think UND's RPI will end up deciding their fate. Using the trend charts at this site, UND will show a nice gain in RPI if they split with DU and CC. But they had better sweep the other opponents or they will be right back to where they are now. Of course to really improve their position UND needs to go 2-1-1 or better vs. the Colorado schools and anything worse than 2-2 and I think they may be off the bubble in the wrong direction.

[sagard]

After the CC split UND is still losing 15 comparisons. UND picked up the Ferris, Mich State, SLU comparisons, but dropped the Cornell, UNO and Providence comparisons.

Fairbanks - UND needs to take over TUC currenty 6-11-1 vs. 7-11-3. 50/50.

BC - UND needs to pass them in RPI. Will be tough.

BU - UND needs to pass them in RPI and maintain CO. 50/50.

CC - UND needs to pass them in RPI and win the season series outright.

Cornell - UND needs to retake RPI and sweep UMD who is a CO. This is looking somewhat tough as Cornell has mostly winning teams remaining on their schedule.

DU - UND needs the sweep.

Harvard - Probably lost. Requires Harvard to play North Eastern and either lose or tie in the Beanpot.

Miami - Lost.

Michigan - UND needs to pass them in RPI. Tossup.

Minnesota - Lost.

UNO - UND needs to retake RPI. This one is probable.

Northern Michigan - Sioux need to sweep Tech.

Providence - Sioux need to maintain razor thin RPI edge and have Providence lose to either UNH or NE.

SCSU - UND needs to take back both TUC and CO. This is a 50/50.

Wisconsin - Lost.

It's starting to look to me like UND needs to finish 4-1-1 or better, win the first round series and they should be good to go. A loss to either UMD or Tech will hurt quite a bit. Two wins at the X and or BSU winning the CHA would help immensely.

[sagard]

After the off week split UND is still losing 15 comparisons. UND picked up the Cornell comparison, but dropped the Ohio State comparison.

Fairbanks - UND needs to take over TUC currently: AF 8-12-4 vs. UND 7-12-1.

BC - UND needs to pass them in RPI. Will be very tough.

BU - UND needs to pass them in RPI. Probably lost.

CC - UND needs to pass them in RPI and to play and win the 1st round series against them.

DU - UND needs the sweep.

Harvard - Lost.

Miami - Lost.

Michigan - UND needs to pass them in RPI. Very tough.

Minnesota - Lost.

UNO - UND needs to retake RPI. Will come down to the results and the X and Joe.

Northern Michigan - Sioux need to sweep Tech.

Ohio State - UND needs to retake CO. UND needs to play and beat CC in 1st round.

Providence - UND will take this back if Prov. loses once in five games vs. UNH and NE.

SCSU - Who ever finishes better from here out will likely take the comparison.

Wisconsin - Lost.

UND will likely get the Providence comparison, and control their destiny in the DU, CC, SCSU, Northern Michigan comparisons. Bemidji winning the CHA gets UND the AF comparison. Michigan State and Cornell can still take back the UND comparison.

I'm still thinking 4-1-1 and a 1st round win will get UND in, but even then it is going to be very close.

[jimdahl]

Thanks for the analyses Sagard. It's a little humbling that I'm not getting them done myself, anymore, but my schedule is pretty definitively not permitting this year. Unfortunately, that also means the now 3-year-spanning project (a.k.a. "Big Kahuna"), that's supposed to do all this for us, is definitely not going to be ready for this playoff season...

[UNDLAW]

Thanks for the analyses Sagard. It's a little humbling that I'm not getting them done myself, anymore, but my schedule is pretty definitively not permitting this year. Unfortunately, that also means the now 3-year-spanning project (a.k.a. "Big Kahuna"), that's supposed to do all this for us, is definitely not going to be ready for this playoff season...

I heard there would be not math, but...

Even if UND swept Duluth, split with Denver and swept tech and played two games with a TUC team in the playoffs (and assuming we win that series) and won one game at the final 5, wouldn't that put our RPI above the team we played in the playoffs and probably get us into the tourny. I know it is the ultimate "what if" situation, but by looking at the numbers in an overall fashion, I think that would be enough to get us in barring an upset in the other conference tournaments. Am I wrong?

[sagard]

Even if UND swept Duluth, split with Denver and swept tech and played two games with a TUC team in the playoffs (and assuming we win that series) and won one game at the final 5, wouldn't that put our RPI above the team we played in the playoffs and probably get us into the tourny. I know it is the ultimate "what if" situation, but by looking at the numbers in an overall fashion, I think that would be enough to get us in barring an upset in the other conference tournaments. Am I wrong?

Split or better with DU, sweep Tech and play and beat CC in the 1st round would probably gain UND the Northern Michigan, Fairbanks, OSU, and Providence comparisons. Although UND could still lose the Mich State and Cornell comparisons, they would have only 13 comparisons lost and with no upsets in tourneys they would probably make it.

Each week it will get much clearer as to what comparisons UND can still win.

[SIOUXELEVENS]

Hey Sagard what will happen to the comparison with Denver if your boys sweep and we sweep the Dogs and split with Denver next weekend?

[sagard]

Hey Sagard what will happen to the comparison with Denver if your boys sweep and we sweep the Dogs and split with Denver next weekend?

I think the only shot UND has at their DU comparison is to sweep them. It still might not be enough if DU does splits or does better against the Gophers and CC. Denver's RPI is going to increase significantly if they get any wins due to playing three teams with great records.

[SIOUXELEVENS]

So we shouldn't root fot the Gophers then

[sagard]

So we shouldn't root fot the Gophers then

If you can live with rooting for DU given your recent history with them by all means do it!

Your right though a DU collapse would help UND, I just don't think it is that likely.

[SIOUXELEVENS]

Honestly the only teams I root against are the teams the Sioux are playing or now the ones who might help us in the NCAA regionals. Thanks for the input it helps put things in perspective.

[brianvf]

Here are the current PWR 'bubble teams':

11t Ohio State 17 34 14-15-4 .4848 18 .5305

11t Harvard 17 17t 14-9-2 .6000 21 .5265

11t Providence 17 24t 15-11-2 .5714 12 .5409

14 Denver 16 9t 18-10-2 .6333 14 .5346

15 Maine 15 8 19-10-1 .6500 13 .5368

16t St. Cloud State 14 12 17-10-3 .6167 16 .5332

16t North Dakota 14 23 18-13-1 .5781 9 .5434

16t St. Lawrence 14 24t 15-11-2 .5714 15 .5336

Here are the key games this weekend, taken from the latest USCHO bracketology, with the games that will most affect the Sioux's position in the PWR:

Key Games

CCHA

Notre Dame at Bowling Green - Some of the CCHA teams would hate to lose Notre Dame as a TUC. A BG sweep would mean the Falcons would likely become a TUC, but Notre Dame would drop out. A ND sweep, and it remains a TUC.

Ferris State at Ohio State - If there was ever a time Ohio State needed to win, it's now.

WCHA

Denver at Minnesota - It doesn't get bigger than this. A Denver sweep would put the Pioneers in position to defend the championship.

Hockey East

Boston College at Maine - Maine needs wins to continue its run into the tournament. One will help, but two would be great. No wins would be deadly for Maine. A Boston College sweep brings the Eagles back towards a number-one seed.

ECACHL

Harvard/Dartmouth at Colgate/Cornell - Big series in Central New York. Harvard wins would go a long way. Cornell wins would go a long way. Dartmouth and Colgate need work, but wins can only help.

Yale/Brown at St. Lawrence - The Saints, even with wins, will not help their RPI. But losses would be devastating to the RPI.

From what I can see, as Sioux fans we should be hoping for:

Notre Dame to lose to Bowling Green. That might lower some of the other CCHA teams if Notre Dame is no longer a TUC.

Not sure what to hope for with OSU/FSU. OSU is above the Sioux, FSU is behind. Some OSU losses might put them below the Sioux.

Denver to lose to Minnie. UMN has all but wrapped up a #1 seed, and DU is right in front of the Sioux. DU losses could only help the Sioux out more.

Maine to lose to BC. Maine is also right in front of the Sioux, so any losses from them would help the Sioux.

Harvard to lose. Another team right in front of the Sioux.

SLU to lose. They are currently tied with the Sioux, so losses would put them out of the picture.

Of course, above all else, we need the Sioux to win against UMD. They can't control these other games, so they need to concentrate on the games that they can control. They need wins, and some help.

Thoughts?

[SIOUXELEVENS]

Boy it can get your head spinning trying to figure all the possibilities and what if's.I believe your right in saying just win and hopefully the chips will fall in the right place.Thinking back some of those close games might be the nails in our coffin. Time to lace em up and get it done