Enrollment

[forksandspoons]

10 minutes ago, AJS said:

Would be quite the zag if the numbers that have been in recent articles (putting FR class around 2,200) was actually the on-campus or full-time FR total or something along those lines. 

Yeah, I am not sure if he was just going off last year or what. 

[The Sicatoka]

20 hours ago, The Sicatoka said:

The enrollment cliff of 2026 is here. You planned for it or it will wreck you.

 

[forksandspoons]

From the bottom of this article from today:

Heard from Link that the first day enrollment number was 15,465 students. The official fall enrollment number will be confirmed on census day, Sept. 21.

https://www.grandforksherald.com/news/local/three-und-programs-flagged-as-low-completion-in-draft-state-report

 

From a UND blog post in August 2025: 

UND’s first-day headcount this week came in at 15,440. 

https://blogs.und.edu/und-today/2025/08/first-day-enrollment-at-und-sets-record/
 

The Herald article uses the word enrollment, which is different than head count I believe. Not sure if comparing apples to apples here or not 

[gfhockey]

So we went up? 

[thUNDer]

39 minutes ago, gfhockey said:

So we went up? 

You don’t do math on Fridays either?😏

[gfhockey]

2 minutes ago, thUNDer said:

You don’t do math on Fridays either?😏

Nah I’m hunting harvesting and st the lake 

[AJS]

Even with a 2,200 FR class, that would still be replacing incredibly small SR classes (anything class prior to FR in 2024). Only up 25 year over year? What a disaster. 
 

We’ll remember Fall 2025 fondly. Fun few years to follow.

[AJS]

https://www.inforum.com/news/fargo/ndsus-new-president-to-lobby-for-expanded-tuition-reciprocity-to-boost-enrollment
 

Nice to see someone with some initiative.  

[UND69er]

15 minutes ago, AJS said:

https://www.inforum.com/news/fargo/ndsus-new-president-to-lobby-for-expanded-tuition-reciprocity-to-boost-enrollment
 

Nice to see someone with some initiative.  

Very surprising stats that 84% of ND and 46% of MN residents stay in ND after graduation. 

 

[SIOUXFAN97]

On 9/4/2026 at 3:27 PM, AJS said:

Even with a 2,200 FR class, that would still be replacing incredibly small SR classes (anything class prior to FR in 2024). Only up 25 year over year? What a disaster. 
 

We’ll remember Fall 2025 fondly. Fun few years to follow.

is there sarcasm here or are these numbers a "disaster"...

explain more

[UND1983]

9 minutes ago, SIOUXFAN97 said:

is there sarcasm here or are these numbers a "disaster"...

explain more

As big of a disaster as our "LABOR DAY WEEKEND ATTENDANCE"

[Nodak1883]

On 9/4/2026 at 1:47 PM, forksandspoons said:

From the bottom of this article from today:

Heard from Link that the first day enrollment number was 15,465 students. The official fall enrollment number will be confirmed on census day, Sept. 21.

https://www.grandforksherald.com/news/local/three-und-programs-flagged-as-low-completion-in-draft-state-report

 

From a UND blog post in August 2025: 

UND’s first-day headcount this week came in at 15,440. 

https://blogs.und.edu/und-today/2025/08/first-day-enrollment-at-und-sets-record/
 

The Herald article uses the word enrollment, which is different than head count I believe. Not sure if comparing apples to apples here or not 

Typically, yes enrollment and head count refer to different metrics. However, given the phrasing in the Herald it would likely be referring to the head count or number of students taking a class at UND for the fall semester.

The fact that we were basically even with last year is a good sign given that it usually trends up towards Census Day. 

For comparison, Fall 2025 First day was 15,440 while the official tally on Census day was 15,844 which is a 2.5% increase from first day of class to census day. While we could pull data from previous years to see how that lines up with historical numbers. If the 2026 Fall Semester sees roughly the same uptick from first day to census day we should see the final tally be 15,850-15,900 students at UND. As long as we don't see a drop of -5% or more we should be completely fine.

[AJS]

12 hours ago, SIOUXFAN97 said:

is there sarcasm here or are these numbers a "disaster"...

explain more

The freshman classes prior to 2024 were small (2023 was just over 1,800). Then the on-campus revival with the 2024, 25 and although they declined from 25, 26. 
 

Common sense would tell you that if you’re bringing in much larger FR classes than graduating, you should see decent increases in total enrollment. Which was the case. 
 

First day totals are essentially even, which tells us something is broken (awful retention most likely). 
 

Not good, which by the silence from the University they also agree. Whatever broke, let’s hope they are working to fix it. 

[AJS]

@SIOUXFAN97 I would say this is like watching the last few years of the Bubba / Berry eras. We all remember, more people than you’d think were saying they were doing good jobs. 
 

Prediction: Next Fall we’ll see a decline as the SR and FR classes will be similar in size, no longer covering up the issues that came to light this fall. Bubba 2.0.

[The Sicatoka]

It’s 2026. HS graduation class sizes drop fifteen percent from here.

 Search: enrollment cliff

[forksandspoons]

On 9/4/2026 at 3:27 PM, AJS said:

Even with a 2,200 FR class, that would still be replacing incredibly small SR classes (anything class prior to FR in 2024). Only up 25 year over year? What a disaster. 
 

We’ll remember Fall 2025 fondly. Fun few years to follow.

Couldn’t it be because more and more students are graduating early or on time? 
 

I’d say following a record enrollment up with another record in today’s world is a pretty good thing. 

[Nodak1883]

On 9/7/2026 at 8:53 AM, AJS said:

First day totals are essentially even, which tells us something is broken (awful retention most likely). 

You do realize that 18 years ago the financial crisis that shook the world and led to the great recession in the US was occurring right? People weren't exactly starting families as debt mounted up and the prospect you might not have your job tomorrow certainly weren't making things a "booming" time in the US for young adults. It would not shock me to see class sizes dip for the next couple of years as we see that cohort of kids turn 18 and go to college. 

The country as a whole went from 69.5 births per 1,000 women in 2007 to 63.2 births in 2012. That might not seem like a lot, but the Census Bureau estimated that there were 62 million women of childbearing age in the US. That means that just between 2007 and 2012 there were roughly 391,000 missing births each year or well over 1.5 million fewer births between 2007 and 2012. 

Obviously, North Dakota wasn't exactly in line with the national trends at the time thanks to the Bakken Oil Boom which not only had people move to the state but also resulted in economic booms across the state. The unemployment rate in this state has also been low which has made wages stay up high which allows more income for families (well that is until we are paying $4/gallon for gas that is)

And let's be clear first day numbers aren't going to be something to celebrate all the time as there is still a lot of movement going on with people registering for classes. Census day is more important and those are the numbers to await and again unless we see a 3-5% drop it's going to fine. And because we are now in that Great Recession birth drop I wouldn't be shocked if there were small ups and downs or a general flat line for enrollment.