The Sicatoka Posted March 16, 2015 Posted March 16, 2015 Jim Dahl's analysis is out and available for the scenarios to make the 2015 NCAA mens ice hockey tournament. http://collegehockeyranked.com/2015/03/16/a-look-at-all-the-remaining-tournament-possibilities/ Quote
The Sicatoka Posted March 16, 2015 Author Posted March 16, 2015 The locks (8): North Dakota, MSU-Mankato, Denver, Boston U, Michigan Tech, Minnesota-Duluth, Miami, Nebraska-Omaha The near-locks(1): Boston College (99.2%) Quote
The Sicatoka Posted March 16, 2015 Author Posted March 16, 2015 The very safe crew: Quinnipiac - Even with a zero win weekend they make it 2/3 of the time. Providence - Doesn't play this weekend but makes it in almost 3/4 of the scenarios. Quote
stoneySIOUX Posted March 16, 2015 Posted March 16, 2015 Looks like Minny almost has to win Big 10 tourney to get in. Quote
The Sicatoka Posted March 16, 2015 Author Posted March 16, 2015 The "a win sure wouldn't hurt" category: SCSU - no wins means a 20% chance; a single win (who do they play again? ouch) jacks them to "near-lock" (99.8%). BGSU - very similar to SCSU's situation (zero win: 46.5%; one win: 97.4%) Quote
siouxweet Posted March 16, 2015 Posted March 16, 2015 The "a win sure wouldn't hurt" category: SCSU - no wins means a 20% chance; a single win (who do they play again? ouch) jacks them to "near-lock" (99.8%). BGSU - very similar to SCSU's situation (zero win: 46.5%; one win: 97.4%) SCSU can't lose 2 this weekend as that would give them a losing record and be inelegible for an at large bid. a loss and a tie at worst. Quote
The Sicatoka Posted March 16, 2015 Author Posted March 16, 2015 Looks like Minny almost has to win Big 10 tourney to get in. As I see it, the BTHC will get probably get one team. If Minnesota wins the BTHC, obviously they're in and no other B1G gets in. If Minnesota lays an egg against the PSU/OSU winner the PWR15 slot will more than likely go to an auto-bid from the B1G (PWR16 is already slotted to an auto-bid, most likely from the AHA). If Minnesota gets to the final but loses and is hanging at PWR14, they'd better be praying for no upsets in HEA or WCHA because PWR16 and PWR15 will be gone to AHA and BIG auto-bid teams. Even with one win on the weekend, Minnesota only makes it in 35.7% of the scenarios. That's where my opening statement (probably one BTHC team) comes from. Quote
R_Schneider_4 Posted March 16, 2015 Posted March 16, 2015 The "a win sure wouldn't hurt" category: SCSU - no wins means a 20% chance; a single win (who do they play again? ouch) jacks them to "near-lock" (99.8%). BGSU - very similar to SCSU's situation (zero win: 46.5%; one win: 97.4%) SCSU with no wins would be under .500 and would be ineligible for NCAA tournament. Quote
SJHovey Posted March 16, 2015 Posted March 16, 2015 Looks like Minny almost has to win Big 10 tourney to get in. I'm not sure that's true. Most of the scenarios with the favorites winning would result in MN making the field, many in instances where they even lose the first game. I do think it would be kind of funny for them to win the B1G regular season title but then miss out on an at large bid. First, doesn't say a lot about the B1G, but second, it would be a Daily Double of sorts for Lucia. He did the same thing back in 1993-94 when his CC team won the WCHA regular season title, only to miss the tournament. Quote
The Sicatoka Posted March 16, 2015 Author Posted March 16, 2015 SCSU can't lose 2 this weekend as that would give them a losing record and be inelegible for an at large bid. a loss and a tie at worst. SCSU with no wins would be under .500 and would be ineligible for NCAA tournament. Great ... a highly motivated SCSU team on Friday. Quote
Popular Post dagies Posted March 16, 2015 Popular Post Posted March 16, 2015 I just want to give a big shout-out to Jim Dahl for putting all of this data and analysis together. Not only does Jim provide a lot of data, he provides it in a timely manner, i.e. not before it's relevant, but right when it's interesting. AND he provides the detailed data for those that like to dive into that stuff, and a summary for the rest of us. Cudos, Jim! And thank you. 5 Quote
InHeavenThereIsNoBeer Posted March 16, 2015 Posted March 16, 2015 Great ... a highly motivated SCSU team on Friday. Should be great prep for the NCAAs Quote
82SiouxGuy Posted March 16, 2015 Posted March 16, 2015 Great ... a highly motivated SCSU team on Friday. They have 2 opportunities to win 1 game thanks to the 3rd place game. The UND-SCSU game isn't do or die for them. Quote
stoneySIOUX Posted March 16, 2015 Posted March 16, 2015 I'm not sure that's true. Most of the scenarios with the favorites winning would result in MN making the field, many in instances where they even lose the first game. I do think it would be kind of funny for them to win the B1G regular season title but then miss out on an at large bid. First, doesn't say a lot about the B1G, but second, it would be a Daily Double of sorts for Lucia. He did the same thing back in 1993-94 when his CC team won the WCHA regular season title, only to miss the tournament. Well... if you look at the data, 1 win gets them an invite in only 35.7% scenarios. No wins, only 4.2%... so, unless I'm missing something, it looks like Minny would need to win the Big 10 tourney. Quote
fargosioux Posted March 16, 2015 Posted March 16, 2015 I'm just happy we won't need to be sweating out the results of other games at the Pour House on Saturday night again this season. Will be much more fun scoreboard watching to see the fate of UMTC. Quote
The Sicatoka Posted March 16, 2015 Author Posted March 16, 2015 It's stunning to me that UND could* lay an egg on the weekend and still have a better than 60% chance to be #1 overall. More interesting? If Mankato loses to Ferris, UND effectively locks #1 overall. Anyone else remember that Motte fellow behind the Ferris mask? *Attention UND team: 'Could' is a statistical word, but is in reality < Goon phrase here > Quote
keikla Posted March 16, 2015 Posted March 16, 2015 Great ... a highly motivated SCSU team on Friday. To be fair, UND was desperate last year and still lost on Friday. Here's hoping SCSU does the same. I'd also be ok with SCSU having their season salvaged by a Saturday win, like UND last year. 6 teams in the tournament? Yes please. Quote
MafiaMan Posted March 16, 2015 Posted March 16, 2015 Go Ferris State, go Bowling Green, go Harvard, and go New Hampshire. Cinderellas all the way! Quote
The Exiled One Posted March 16, 2015 Posted March 16, 2015 They have 2 opportunities to win 1 game thanks to the 3rd place game. Kind of a blessing/curse. If there was no 3rd place game, the Huskies could lose on Friday and still have a .500 record with a decent shot at an at-large bid. Instead, they'd now HAVE to win the third place game with a GREAT shot at an at-large bid. Actually, they could technically tie the 3rd place game and still have a decent shot. They're going to need (somebody like) Jim Dahl's help to determine whether to preserve a tie or go all-out for an overtime win if it shakes out that way. Quote
The Sicatoka Posted March 16, 2015 Author Posted March 16, 2015 Go Ferris State, go Bowling Green, go Harvard, and go New Hampshire. Cinderellas all the way! Pro-Cinderella? So where's your love to Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin? Wait ... I said "love" and mentioned a B1G team in the same sentence. Nevermind. Quote
SJHovey Posted March 16, 2015 Posted March 16, 2015 Well... if you look at the data, 1 win gets them an invite in only 35.7% scenarios. No wins, only 4.2%... so, unless I'm missing something, it looks like Minny would need to win the Big 10 tourney. The numbers you are looking at are just a list of all of the scenarios, and the percentages of time they occur. That's why teams like RMU, UNH, St. Lawrence, etc..., that have to win two games to get in are all 25%. Half the scenarios they win game one, and then half of those they win game 2. They are not weighted for what is likely to happen. I think Jim is actually working on some sort of weighted analysis, probably using KRACH. Quote
keikla Posted March 16, 2015 Posted March 16, 2015 Go Ferris State, go Bowling Green, go Harvard, and go New Hampshire. Cinderellas all the way! That's my attitude, too. With the exception of the NCHC, of course. Quote
stoneySIOUX Posted March 16, 2015 Posted March 16, 2015 The numbers you are looking at are just a list of all of the scenarios, and the percentages of time they occur. That's why teams like RMU, UNH, St. Lawrence, etc..., that have to win two games to get in are all 25%. Half the scenarios they win game one, and then half of those they win game 2. They are not weighted for what is likely to happen. I think Jim is actually working on some sort of weighted analysis, probably using KRACH. Fair enough. I was looking at those stats. What you said makes sense. I'm not ready to bury minny just yet. I'm not either. Quote
I Ranger Posted March 16, 2015 Posted March 16, 2015 Kind of a blessing/curse. If there was no 3rd place game, the Huskies could lose on Friday and still have a .500 record with a decent shot at an at-large bid. Instead, they'd now HAVE to win the third place game with a GREAT shot at an at-large bid. Actually, they could technically tie the 3rd place game and still have a decent shot. They're going to need (somebody like) Jim Dahl's help to determine whether to preserve a tie or go all-out for an overtime win if it shakes out that way. That could be one interesting scenario if it happens. I never thought of that. Quote
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