Pairwise Rankings

[MafiaMan]

You are on for the vanilla waffle cone my friend. Michigan is toast. And one of my posse will again be the beneficiary of my acumen and my largesse.

And your foolhardy way.

My foolhardy way? Cmon, NorthDakotaHockey...you're a big fish in a small barrel this time, my friend.

[jimdahl]

On the difference between 50-50 and weighted predictions this time of year, let me give a couple examples

Brown is an example of a team that I said would get the most benefit from me doing it straight 50-50, because they're statistically the most outmatched (playing QU). The 2nd column is the 50-50 odds, the 3rd the weighted (by KRACH) odds:

#16 0.2% 0.1%

#17 2.4% 1.6%

#18 6.4% 3.3%

#19 10.5% 5.4%

#20 17.4% 16.4%

#21 20.4% 23.0%

#22 15.4% 13.4%

#23 6.4% 6.2%

#24 6.3% 9.6%

#25 6.9% 12.3%

#26 5.8% 7.0%

#27 1.7% 1.4%

#28 0.2% 0.1%

#29 0.0% 0.0%

As I predicted, their good outcomes (16-19) are about doubled under 50-50 while their bad outcomes (25 in particular) are cut. However, the shape of the curve is about the same and overall differences are pretty minor. That is, of course, the most extreme example. Here's UND:

#3 2.4% 1.3%

#4 6.5% 5.5%

#5 9.5% 8.9%

#6 13.4% 11.7%

#7 22.4% 21.3%

#8 18.9% 22.7%

#9 15.7% 14.8%

#10 9.0% 10.0%

#11 2.2% 3.8%

#12 0.1% 0.1%

Of course, saying that the two aren't very different isn't a justification for doing it one vs the other. My justification is still that the 50-50 is fact while the weighted is subjective. I'm just pointing out that even fans of the weighted can still get a lot of value from the 50-50.

[KirkEisenbeis]

There are a couple reason it's not as bad as you think -- The predictors aren't as strong as during the regular season. Using KRACH, participants in a single conference's tournament tend to have similar strengths, such that 90% of the games don't become more biased than 65-35.

Ultimately, why we're really following this is to find the likelihood for advancement, not to learn how many permutations include advancement. You're saying that the the permutations tally is close enough to be treated as the likelihood in everywhere but the small print at the bottom of the blog post.

You had me satisfied with the quoted statement, and I appreciate the simulation posted this morning that supports it.

[The Sicatoka]

What I find interesting right now is that Jim's "after Thursday" simulations have UND looking at:

#5 2.8%

#6 9.9%

#7 27.2%

#8 22.1%

#9 21.7%

#10 13.3%

#11 3.0%

#12 0.0%

Tournament invites: 100.0%

But the actual PWR on Friday morning has UND at T-10 (#11).

That says more than likely UND will move up in PWR over the next two days by going home, staying healthy, and getting rested.

Here's hoping the rest of the games at the Final Five go at least as long as the UND/UM womens game last weekend.

[SiouxScore]

Here is a scenario I ran in the pairwise predictor that I would like to see if they kept bracket integrity with the matchups.

Atlantic Hockey

Semifinal #2: Connecticut defeats Mercyhurst

Semifinal #1: Niagara defeats Canisius

Championship game: Niagara defeats Connecticut

CCHA

Semifinal #2: Notre Dame defeats Ohio State

Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan

Championship game: Miami defeats Notre Dame

ECAC

Semifinal #2: Yale defeats Union

Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Brown

Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Yale

Consolation game: Union defeats Brown

Hockey East

Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Boston University

Semifinal #1: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats Providence

Championship game: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats Boston College

WCHA

Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota

Semifinal #1: Wisconsin defeats St. Cloud State

Championship game: Colorado College defeats Wisconsin Also works with Minnesota beating CC and Wisconsin.

Leaves you with

1.Quinnipiac 2.Minnesota 3.Mass-Lowell 4.Miami 5.Boston College 6.Niagra 7.Yale 8.North Dakota 9.New Hampshire 10. Mankato 11.Denver 12.St.Cloud 13.Western Michigan 14.Notre Dame 15.Union 21.Auto-Bid Colorado College

Manchester

1.Quinnipiac vs 16.Colorado College

8.North Dakota vs. 9.New Hampshire

Grand Rapids

2.Minnesota vs. 13.Western Michigan

7.Yale vs. 10.Mankato

Providence

3.Mass-Lowell vs. 14.Notre Dame

6.Niagra vs. 11.Denver

Toledo

4.Miami vs. 15.Union

5.Boston College vs.12.St.Cloud

[siouxweet]

Here is a scenario I ran in the pairwise predictor that I would like to see if they kept bracket integrity with the matchups.

Atlantic Hockey

Semifinal #2: Connecticut defeats Mercyhurst

Semifinal #1: Niagara defeats Canisius

Championship game: Niagara defeats Connecticut

CCHA

Semifinal #2: Notre Dame defeats Ohio State

Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan

Championship game: Miami defeats Notre Dame

ECAC

Semifinal #2: Yale defeats Union

Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Brown

Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Yale

Consolation game: Union defeats Brown

Hockey East

Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Boston University

Semifinal #1: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats Providence

Championship game: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats Boston College

WCHA

Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota

Semifinal #1: Wisconsin defeats St. Cloud State

Championship game: Colorado College defeats Wisconsin Also works with Minnesota beating CC and Wisconsin.

Leaves you with

1.Quinnipiac 2.Minnesota 3.Mass-Lowell 4.Miami 5.Boston College 6.Niagra 7.Yale 8.North Dakota 9.New Hampshire 10. Mankato 11.Denver 12.St.Cloud 13.Western Michigan 14.Notre Dame 15.Union 21.Auto-Bid Colorado College

Manchester

1.Quinnipiac vs 16.Colorado College

8.North Dakota vs. 9.New Hampshire

Grand Rapids

2.Minnesota vs. 13.Western Michigan

7.Yale vs. 10.Mankato

Providence

3.Mass-Lowell vs. 14.Notre Dame

6.Niagra vs. 11.Denver

Toledo

4.Miami vs. 15.Union

7.Yale vs. 10.Mankato

not a chance cc wins the final five, gophers take care of business tonight as we should have last night. also niagara would be put in toledo for attendence purposes and qu will be providence

[LakotaNation]

Here is a scenario I ran in the pairwise predictor that I would like to see if they kept bracket integrity with the matchups.

Atlantic Hockey

Semifinal #2: Connecticut defeats Mercyhurst

Semifinal #1: Niagara defeats Canisius

Championship game: Niagara defeats Connecticut

CCHA

Semifinal #2: Notre Dame defeats Ohio State

Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan

Championship game: Miami defeats Notre Dame

ECAC

Semifinal #2: Yale defeats Union

Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Brown

Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Yale

Consolation game: Union defeats Brown

Hockey East

Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Boston University

Semifinal #1: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats Providence

Championship game: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats Boston College

WCHA

Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota

Semifinal #1: Wisconsin defeats St. Cloud State

Championship game: Colorado College defeats Wisconsin Also works with Minnesota beating CC and Wisconsin.

Leaves you with

1.Quinnipiac 2.Minnesota 3.Mass-Lowell 4.Miami 5.Boston College 6.Niagra 7.Yale 8.North Dakota 9.New Hampshire 10. Mankato 11.Denver 12.St.Cloud 13.Western Michigan 14.Notre Dame 15.Union 21.Auto-Bid Colorado College

Manchester

1.Quinnipiac vs 16.Colorado College

8.North Dakota vs. 9.New Hampshire

Grand Rapids

2.Minnesota vs. 13.Western Michigan

7.Yale vs. 10.Mankato

Providence

3.Mass-Lowell vs. 14.Notre Dame

6.Niagra vs. 11.Denver

Toledo

4.Miami vs. 15.Union

7.Yale vs. 10.Mankato

where is boston college in your bracket? they did end up being 5th overall seed with you running the predictor

[fargosioux]

Here is a scenario I ran in the pairwise predictor that I would like to see if they kept bracket integrity with the matchups.

Atlantic Hockey

Semifinal #2: Connecticut defeats Mercyhurst

Semifinal #1: Niagara defeats Canisius

Championship game: Niagara defeats Connecticut

CCHA

Semifinal #2: Notre Dame defeats Ohio State

Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan

Championship game: Miami defeats Notre Dame

ECAC

Semifinal #2: Yale defeats Union

Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Brown

Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Yale

Consolation game: Union defeats Brown

Hockey East

Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Boston University

Semifinal #1: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats Providence

Championship game: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats Boston College

WCHA

Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota

Semifinal #1: Wisconsin defeats St. Cloud State

Championship game: Colorado College defeats Wisconsin Also works with Minnesota beating CC and Wisconsin.

Leaves you with

1.Quinnipiac 2.Minnesota 3.Mass-Lowell 4.Miami 5.Boston College 6.Niagra 7.Yale 8.North Dakota 9.New Hampshire 10. Mankato 11.Denver 12.St.Cloud 13.Western Michigan 14.Notre Dame 15.Union 21.Auto-Bid Colorado College

Manchester

1.Quinnipiac vs 16.Colorado College

8.North Dakota vs. 9.New Hampshire

Grand Rapids

2.Minnesota vs. 13.Western Michigan

7.Yale vs. 10.Mankato

Providence

3.Mass-Lowell vs. 14.Notre Dame

6.Niagra vs. 11.Denver

Toledo

4.Miami vs. 15.Union

7.Yale vs. 10.Mankato

Tough draw for Yale and Mankato, being forced to play in two regionals.

[SiouxScore]

Here is a scenario I ran in the pairwise predictor that I would like to see if they kept bracket integrity with the matchups.

Atlantic Hockey

Semifinal #2: Connecticut defeats Mercyhurst

Semifinal #1: Niagara defeats Canisius

Championship game: Niagara defeats Connecticut

CCHA

Semifinal #2: Notre Dame defeats Ohio State

Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan

Championship game: Miami defeats Notre Dame

ECAC

Semifinal #2: Yale defeats Union

Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Brown

Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Yale

Consolation game: Union defeats Brown

Hockey East

Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Boston University

Semifinal #1: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats Providence

Championship game: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats Boston College

WCHA

Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota

Semifinal #1: Wisconsin defeats St. Cloud State

Championship game: Colorado College defeats Wisconsin Also works with Minnesota beating CC and Wisconsin.

Leaves you with

1.Quinnipiac 2.Minnesota 3.Mass-Lowell 4.Miami 5.Boston College 6.Niagra 7.Yale 8.North Dakota 9.New Hampshire 10. Mankato 11.Denver 12.St.Cloud 13.Western Michigan 14.Notre Dame 15.Union 21.Auto-Bid Colorado College

Manchester

1.Quinnipiac vs 16.Colorado College

8.North Dakota vs. 9.New Hampshire

Grand Rapids

2.Minnesota vs. 13.Western Michigan

7.Yale vs. 10.Mankato

Providence

3.Mass-Lowell vs. 14.Notre Dame

6.Niagra vs. 11.Denver

Toledo

4.Miami vs. 15.Union

5.Boston College vs.12.St.Cloud

The correct bracket guess I just really didn't want BC and St.Cloud in or something haha.

[SiouxScore]

not a chance cc wins the final five, gophers take care of business tonight as we should have last night. also niagara would be put in toledo for attendence purposes and qu will be providence

If CC doesn't win final 5 you would just replace Wisconsin with CC as everything else worked out the same. I'm just trying to keep bracket integrity and not really worrying about attendance but why would Niagra a New York school be moved to Toledo instead of Providence and its not like they have a huge fan base either that would really improve attendance. Really not a huge distance fo Quinnipiac between going to Providence or Manchester only about 40 miles difference.

[siouxweet]

If CC doesn't win final 5 you would just replace Wisconsin with CC as everything else worked out the same. I'm just trying to keep bracket integrity and not really worrying about attendance but why would Niagra a New York school be moved to Toledo instead of Providence and its not like they have a huge fan base either that would really improve attendance. Really not a huge distance fo Quinnipiac between going to Providence or Manchester only about 40 miles difference.

manchester is essentialy a home game for new hampshire therefore qu would only go there if they absolutely had to being they are the top overall seed. it think the committee would also keep bc in providence or manchester if they can.

[SiouxScore]

manchester is essentialy a home game for new hampshire therefore qu would only go there if they absolutely had to being they are the top overall seed. it think the committee would also keep bc in providence or manchester if they can.

I get what you're saying I was more looking at straight bracket integrity instead but yeah I wouldn't be suprised at all to see BC end up in Providence.

[siouxweet]

I get what you're saying I was more looking at straight bracket integrity instead but yeah I wouldn't be suprised at all to see BC end up in Providence.

this year's bracket will be so screwed up integrity will not even come intoplay

[fargosioux]

I get what you're saying I was more looking at straight bracket integrity instead but yeah I wouldn't be suprised at all to see BC end up in Providence.

Straight bracket integrity would have Western Michigan and Union swapped in your scenario.

[Let'sGoHawks!]

Regarding all the remaining games: UND is in. I just plan on watching some good hockey and letting the chips fall where they do without getting stressed about potential matchups.

[SiouxScore]

Straight bracket integrity would have Western Michigan and Union swapped in your scenario.

Yeah but Western Michigan and Miami are in the same conference so they wouldn't be able to play each other in the 1st round.

[Nodaker]

Regarding all the remaining games: UND is in. I just plan on watching some good hockey and letting the chips fall where they do without getting stressed about potential matchups.

Hope so.

[KirkEisenbeis]

An advantage of getting more hockey conferences is that there will be less hand-wringing about having too many in-conference matchups in years where [5 or more former WCHA schools] are all threatening to make the NCAAs.

[Oxbow6]

I know the numbers will change but looking this morning could UND possibly get lucky w regional of something like Mass-L, Niagara and Union??

[Blackheart]

So now the Sioux are sitting at 6 in the pairwise? They couldn't ask for better outcomes I'm guessing to have moved from a tie for 10th after Thursday's game. Don't know if they could move up anymore based on outcomes of Mass-Lowell or Miami games but they certainly have themselves in a good position. (unlike St Clown) What they do with it, though, is another thing...

[yzerman19]

I know the numbers will change but looking this morning could UND possibly get lucky w regional of something like Mass-L, Niagara and Union??

That is very possible- not sure what Lowell really brings, but they did win a big time conference...

[MafiaMan]

...not sure what Lowell really brings, but they did win a big time conference...

I've seen Lowell play several times this year. They are a solid solid club.

[yzerman19]

I've seen Lowell play several times this year. They are a solid solid club.

I'd sure think so...I saw BU and BC, and if Lowell is the best of that class (at least by conference record) they must be legit

[jimdahl]

I revisited the question of weighted vs. unweighted using this season's results (which may or may not be anomalous, I truly have no idea).

A look back at 2013 forecasts (second half, scroll to On weighted vs. unweighted conference tournament projections)

[GFG]

I don't really agree with this years bracket. Bracket integrity was almost completely thrown out the window in order to (surprise, surprise) get BC back east for attendance. Must be nice to be BC.