Pairwise Rankings

[Snake]

So I wonder if UND will now end up in QU's regional?

I believe if QU were to finish #1 overall, a "pure" bracket would place them with #8, #9, and #16.

[petey23]

I guess I need to explain this a little deeper for you...... For example, if there are four number 2 seeds from the wcha and there is also a fifth team from the wcha that is a 3 seed, then there is no way for the committee to avoid a first round matchup.

Gee thanks for that! I am sure EVERYONE appreciates that clarification.

[jimdahl]

There was an excellent question on this week's post UND need win to maintain lofty ranking:

What would have to happen in the Gopher/New Hampshire/Miami games for us to move up (assuming we sweep of course). Would any one of those teams have to get swepts for us to move; or would a split do the job.

Here's my (pretty technical) shot at an answer.

(You almost certainly need UND PWR comparisons to follow along)

A sweep for UND will only raise our RPI to about .5474 (all other things equal).

At a 1-3 comparison, Minnesota is the only of the three that UND could take on RPI alone. Unfortunately, even if swept, I'm only seeing the Gophers fall to about .5554 RPI so that's very unlikely. We already have COP and can't flip H2H. We could take TUC if Minnesota got swept and fell to .5556, but at 2-2 they'd still have the tie-breaker.

With a split UNH comes in around .5438 RPI, so that could be good enough for UND to take that criterion. We're not taking COP because Bemidji St. comes into play and UNH is 1-0 vs. them, so even if we sweep we can't overtake them. TUC is very close, currently .5600 vs .5952. Neither of us play TUCs, so it's all about the cliff.

With a split Miami comes in around .5528, probably not within range of UND. Getting swept is more like .5459, so that could be good enough for UND (but is getting a little close to be sure). No remaining games vs. COPs scheduled for either team. While Miami is playing a TUC, sweeping Ohio St. could knock them out of being a TUC; that would actually hurt Miami's TUC score because they're already 2-0-1 vs. Ohio St.

Bottom line -- with a sweep, UND can take RPI on UNH if they split; with Miami if Miami gets swept. However, for both, we'd also need some external TUC cliff help.

[jimdahl]

It looks if UND loses tonight we leave the weekend #11 or #12.

If UND wins, #6-#9.

So, a loss is somewhat unlikely to knock UND out of playoff contention, though big moves can happen when you're not playing, see Alaska this weekend (as predicted in the blog).

[AZSIOUX]

It looks if UND loses tonight we leave the weekend #11 or #12.

If UND wins, #6-#9.

So, a loss is somewhat unlikely to knock UND out of playoff contention, though big moves can happen when you're not playing, see Alaska this weekend (as predicted in the blog).

Thanks Jim to go know! Go sioux

[AZSIOUX]

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/

Pairwise predictor

[Wilbur]

Looks like its a two seed for UND if they don't win the final five. They sneak into a one by winning the final five.

Can this team win three games in three days? Sure......Need to play with tonight's tenacity.

[jimdahl]

North Dakota seemingly a lock for NCAAs

Here's a little more detail:

UND wins 0

#5 2%

#6 7%

#7 22%

#8 23%

#9 25%

#10 16%

#11 4%

#12 <1%

UND wins 1

#5 7%

#6 23%

#7 32%

#8 23%

#9 10%

#10 4%

#11 1%

#12 <1%

UND wins 2

#4 6%

#5 19%

#6 29%

#7 26%

#8 13%

#9 5%

#10 1%

#11 <1%

UND wins 3

#3 19%

#4 46%

#5 33%

#6 2%

[The Sicatoka]

After three games in three days, and now the information that UND seems to be a lock for the NCAA tournament, I guess I'd have no problem with UND taking the "Duluth path" to a title.

PS - Jim, what scenario would keep Denver out? Not wishing ill, but wishin'.

[Oxbow6]

After three games in three days, and now the information that UND seems to be a lock for the NCAA tournament, I guess I'd have no problem with UND taking the "Duluth path" to a title.

PS - Jim, what scenario would keep Denver out? Not wishing ill, but wishin'.

My uneducated guess would be WI winning a couple at the F5 would go a long ways in possibly booting DU out.

[The Sicatoka]

My uneducated guess would be WI winning a couple at the F5 would go a long ways in possibly booting DU out.

I suspect it'll also take a couple "surprise" (not currently in top 16 PWR) conference tournament winners.

[Snake]

North Dakota seemingly a lock for NCAAs

Here's a little more detail:

UND wins 0

#5 7%

#6 23%

#7 22%

#8 23%

#9 25%

#10 16%

#11 4%

#12 <1%

These probabilities add up to > 1.

[Wilbur]

My uneducated guess would be WI winning a couple at the F5 would go a long ways in possibly booting DU out.

For the sake of quality hockey I'm hoping for Mankato to beat Bucky. All the games this weekend could be pretty good except for that one. Mankato will try to come out guns ablazin, and Wisconsin will clog up everything and dump......and clog.....and dump.

The sooner bucky is out the better.

[The Sicatoka]

These probabilities add up to > 1.

I suspect Jim had a transcription problem.

If you go to his main article things seem to add up to 1 (or to at least "rounding tenth" of it).

http://blog.siouxspo...013/03/18/2143/

3 2.4%

4 6.5%

5 9.5%

6 13.4%

7 22.4%

8 18.9%

9 15.7%

10 9.0%

11 2.2%

12 0.1%

Tournament invites: 393216 (100.0%)

5 2.4%

6 7.5%

7 22.3%

8 22.8%

9 25.0%

10 15.9%

11 3.9%

12 0.1%

3 19.0%

4 46.3%

5 32.8%

6 1.9%

[MafiaMan]

The sooner bucky is out the better.

I agree x 1000. I would prefer not to fall asleep watching hockey Thursday afternoon AND Friday afternoon!

[jimdahl]

These probabilities add up to > 1.

So they do. It seems in manually transcribing these I grabbed the #6 from the "wins 1" column. Let me try again (I'll also go back and fix the original):

UND wins 0

#5 2%

#6 7%

#7 22%

#8 23%

#9 25%

#10 16%

#11 4%

#12 <1%

[Snake]

I suspect Jim had a transcription problem.

If you go to his main article things seem to add up to 1 (or to at least "rounding tenth" of it).

http://blog.siouxspo...013/03/18/2143/

3 2.4%

4 6.5%

5 9.5%

6 13.4%

7 22.4%

8 18.9%

9 15.7%

10 9.0%

11 2.2%

12 0.1%

Tournament invites: 393216 (100.0%)

5 2.4%

6 7.5%

7 22.3%

8 22.8%

9 25.0%

10 15.9%

11 3.9%

12 0.1%

3 19.0%

4 46.3%

5 32.8%

6 1.9%

Right, but the numbers from the first column of the blog post didn't really match, so I didn't assume he was trying to present that data as the "zero win" scenario. Also, he presented the info in his forum post as "additional detail". Seems to me the first column is a more general "overall" probability.

[siouxweet]

After three games in three days, and now the information that UND seems to be a lock for the NCAA tournament, I guess I'd have no problem with UND taking the "Duluth path" to a title.

PS - Jim, what scenario would keep Denver out? Not wishing ill, but wishin'.

not necessarily the duluth route but I have come up with several scenarios where we win thurs, lose fri to minnesota and niagara wins atlantic hockey we end up the 8 seed potentialy facing yale in QU's region in providence. I've said it before I just don't want to be in minnesota's region.

[jimdahl]

After three games in three days, and now the information that UND seems to be a lock for the NCAA tournament, I guess I'd have no problem with UND taking the "Duluth path" to a title.

PS - Jim, what scenario would keep Denver out? Not wishing ill, but wishin'.

Be careful what you wish for... the easiest path is for a bunch of autoqualifiers to chew up spots. For the WCHA, one obvious one is Colorado College. The other ingredient is for teams ahead of Denver to do well and stay ahead of Denver (or a couple right below them to climb up). e.g.

Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Canisius def. Niagara

Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst def. Connecticut

Atlantic Hockey Championship: Canisius def. Mercyhurst

CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan def. Miami

CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State def. Notre Dame

CCHA Championship: Michigan def. Ohio State

ECAC Semifinal #1: Brown def. Quinnipiac

ECAC Semifinal #2: Union def. Yale

ECAC Championship: Brown def. Union

ECAC Consolation: Yale def. Quinnipiac

Hockey East Semifinal #1: Providence def. Mass.-Lowell

Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University def. Boston College

Hockey East Championship: Boston University def. Providence

WCHA Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State def. Minnesota State

WCHA Semifinal #2: Colorado College def. Minnesota

WCHA Championship: Colorado College def. St. Cloud State

WCHA Play-in #1: Colorado College def. North Dakota

WCHA Play-in #2: Minnesota State def. Wisconsin

Would have BU, Brown, CC, Michigan, and Canisius steal spots, denying Denver despite being #12. Sorry about the lack of link, CHN's link feature doesn't seem to be working right now.

[Snake]

So they do. It seems in manually transcribing these I grabbed the #6 from the "wins 1" column. Let me try again (I'll also go back and fix the original):

UND wins 0

#5 2%

#6 7%

#7 22%

#8 23%

#9 25%

#10 16%

#11 4%

#12 <1%

One more question:

How are we supposed to read the table in the blog post? There are three columns, but four possible outcomes for UND (Win 0, 1, 2, or 3). I wanted to assume the first column was "Win 0," but those numbers didn't match very well. Your "win 3" scenario for UND in your forum post matches the right-hand column in your blog post, but the "win 3" label cannot apply for non-WCHA teams that only have two games remaining, yet they are showing probable outcomes in the table under that column.

Seems to me the table should have 4 columns, with data in the right-hand column only for those WCHA teams playing on Tursday.

Is there something I'm not catching?

[jimdahl]

One more question:

How are we supposed to read the table in the blog post? There are three columns, but four possible outcomes for UND (Win 0, 1, 2, or 3). I wanted to assume the first column was "Win 0," but those numbers didn't match very well. Your "win 3" scenario for UND in your forum post matches the right-hand column in your blog post, but the "win 3" label cannot apply for non-WCHA teams that only have two games remaining, yet they are showing probable outcomes in the table under that column.

Seems to me the table should have 4 columns, with data in the right-hand column only for those WCHA teams playing on Tursday.

Is there something I'm not catching?

Thanks, I'm in the process of transitioning from just doing "win none" and "win all" to a column for each remaining game. The table in the post accidentally included the new headers despite still being the old data.

The three columns in that table are "Overall", "Win none" and "Win all".

I'm still working on all the in-between scenarios and hope to have that soon.

[Snake]

Thanks, I'm in the process of transitioning from just doing "win none" and "win all" to a column for each remaining game. The table in the post accidentally included the new headers despite still being the old data.

The three columns in that table are "Overall", "Win none" and "Win all".

I'm still working on all the in-between scenarios and hope to have that soon.

Thanks!

[MafiaMan]

Thanks, I'm in the process of transitioning from just doing "win none" and "win all" to a column for each remaining game. The table in the post accidentally included the new headers despite still being the old data.

The three columns in that table are "Overall", "Win none" and "Win all".

I'm still working on all the in-between scenarios and hope to have that soon.

Jim's got...too much (clap clap)...time on his hands...it's hard to believe such a calamity...

[Boy Named Sioux]

Jim's got...too much (clap clap)...time on his hands...it's hard to believe such a calamity...

Ha! This may be true. One thing for sure - if a person has time to verify all Jims numbers add up... that person definitely has too much time!

**cough cough snake cough**

I kid....

[siouxu31]

UND wins 0

#5 2%

#6 7%

#7 22%

#8 23%

#9 25%

#10 16%

#11 4%

#12 <1%

Jim, I am assuming in this scenario where UND finishes 12th, atleast one of the autobids is taken by a team that would have qualified as an at-large bid given that 12th in the PWR doesn't give you an automatic entry with 5 autobids out there?