http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/football/fcs
Looking at the bracket, NDSU's toughest test to get back to Frisco will be their first game (SDSU or Montana State). I don't see Coastal (or Richmond / Morgan ) as more than a speed bump on the way to the semis.
I don't see much in the #3 portion either. The most dangerous team to NDSU in that section is Sam Houston (and the revenge factor).
UNH should make the semis.
And I hereby declare the #4 portion of the bracket "the bracket of doom": Montana, EWU, Illinois State, and UNI. Ouch.