NCAA seeding

[hockeytherapy13]

1 minute ago, fightingsioux4life said:

We beat Wisconsin in the Kohl Center in 2008 in the regional final, so home ice doesn't guarantee anything.

You’re in a fighting mood today. I like it. Get your butt to Sioux Falls and bring that energy to the building 

[fightingsioux4life]

3 minutes ago, hockeytherapy13 said:

You’re in a fighting mood today. I like it. Get your butt to Sioux Falls and bring that energy to the building 

I'll take that as a compliment. 

I was talking about going with a friend of mine, but he's not feeling well. Also, I didn't want to take that much time off work; this day off in-between has made it harder to get the time off needed to go to these games.

[hockeytherapy13]

13 hours ago, brianvf said:

I’m rooting for MSUM out of that region. Doubt it will happen but I sure don’t want DU or WMU potentially playing for another title. DU for obvious reasons. WMU…a large % of their fan base acts like they have won a ton of titles after their one win last year. So it wouldn’t upset me if they bowed out as well. 

I can stomach another Western title.. for now..as long as it’s not Denver, Duluth, Penn state, Michigan. 

[Scratch]

1 hour ago, hockeytherapy13 said:

With how hot Merrimack is right now (and for the last 3 months), combined with having 5 players with 13+ goals, having a higher SOS than us, and good special teams, I'm surprised more of them didn't take Merrimack in the 1st round. I still think that if we play smart and structured hockey we will win a tight one. If it's loosey goosey then we are cooked. 

I'm not sure if this is correct but CHN has UND's SOS at 15, Merrimack's at 26.

My take-

This game should be a slam dunk. Merrimack's 45% Corsi is 53rd in the country. They'll probably be on pace to have 15 shots on goal through two periods until its the third and the Sioux are blowing them out and then maybe they reach 20 in desperation. I think the most likely outcome is UND winning by 4, maybe two if they play loosey goosey, which they can afford to do against a team that should be going 3-5 minutes without a shot frequently throughout the game. Merrimack hasn't seen anything close to UND's team speed this year, Providence is basically their toughest opponent on the year (and having watched Providence a few times, they look slow and average to me). Plus I think Zellers is going to elevate and bury 3 over the weekend for no reason other than his panache. 

Or maybe I'm completely wrong, and Merrimack's inability to cycle doesn't matter because they score every goal off the rush. Doesn't seem impossible since UND's gameplan the last two months has seemingly been to allow as many 2 on 1 chances as possible and for Jan to allow 1-2 softies for a total of 3-4 goals allowed on like 17 shots. Or most recently for KV to apparently be struck with amnesia and a musculoskeletal disorder all at once and singlehandedly cause 2-3 goals against, but I'm optimistic that was a one off. Unlike 2016, this team doesn't have 4 guaranteed shutdown never out of position defensemen--it doesn't even have one--and it doesn't have any forwards that are notably strong on D like Cagg or Schmaltz. 

But this is a dream regional for UND and I think Smaby is going to scare them into playing decent enough off D to let the skill shine through. 

 

[hockeytherapy13]

1 minute ago, fightingsioux4life said:

I'll take that as a compliment. 

I was talking about going with a friend of mine, but he's not feeling well. Also, I didn't want to take that much time off work; this day off in-between has made it harder to get the time off needed to go to these games.

Definitely a compliment. But Yeah it’s too expensive to spend 3 nights in a hotel for a couple games 

[Level B Fishbowl]

13 hours ago, tnt said:

Cornell and Denver have had low scoring games in the NCAA tournament about 3 & 4 years ago.  Big teams like Cornell are tough to play against during tourney time, and if they can stay out of the box, they will probably be in another low scoring game with them, where the bounces could make the difference.  Cornell will have to keep it low scoring to have a chance as I don’t see Hicks giving up a lot.

Neither team scored more than two in both meetings and each team won a game. Cornell had a lot of roster turnover after last season (across all positions) and of course Schafer retired. That said, Cournoyer is a solid goaltender (he won the Ken Dryden award for best ECAC goaltender) who plays the puck extremely well (about as well as Marty Turco) and a lot of the other freshmen have stepped up. My big concern with that game is the overall weaker defensive core and being able to keep up sustained offensive pressure on Denver

[brianvf]

41 minutes ago, Scratch said:

Merrimack's 45% Corsi is 53rd in the country. 

I saw that stat as well, and it matches with the UConn HEA final game.  
UConn had them hemmed in their zone for shifts at a time.  Mack's goalie played well, but some of the shots were just dumb luck that they didn't go in for UConn.
If UND gets that many chances in tight, I like their chances.
Merrimack seemed to do a really good job blocking shots, but the number of high quality chances that they gave up was pretty crazy.

[Blackheart]

41 minutes ago, brianvf said:

I saw that stat as well, and it matches with the UConn HEA final game.  
UConn had them hemmed in their zone for shifts at a time.  Mack's goalie played well, but some of the shots were just dumb luck that they didn't go in for UConn.
If UND gets that many chances in tight, I like their chances.
Merrimack seemed to do a really good job blocking shots, but the number of high quality chances that they gave up was pretty crazy.

Yeah, my biggest worry is that Merrimack is this year's "hot" team.  Seems like every year somebody unexpected comes out of the pack and puts together a nice run through the playoffs.  I'm just hoping the boys can back to their midseason form.

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

2 hours ago, hockeytherapy13 said:

Definitely a compliment. But Yeah it’s too expensive to spend 3 nights in a hotel for a couple games 

Then just go for Saturday, that's what I'm doing

[burd]

1 hour ago, Blackheart said:

Yeah, my biggest worry is that Merrimack is this year's "hot" team.  

Like Northeastern in 2016?

[ND_Texan]

My take-

Merrimack has been riding a hot goalie, winning low scoring games. They block a lot of shots - 2nd in the country. All that means the opposition spends a lot of time in Merrimack's zone, peppering their D. Our speed at moving the puck, screening in front of the net and sniping ability blows all that out the window. They haven't seen that level of constant pressure from four lines in the Big East. We'll beat them with speed, we'll be them on the boards, we'll beat them at center ice, we'll beat them with sharp shooting.

UND 5, Merrimack 1

[brianvf]

2 minutes ago, ND_Texan said:

They haven't seen that level of constant pressure from four lines in the Big East. 

This part will be interesting.  The whole year seemed like a down year for HEA typical power schools.  
It'll be interesting to see if that disparity plays out on the ice.  Not just for UND, but for all the teams playing the HEA teams in the first round.

[ND_Texan]

2 minutes ago, brianvf said:

This part will be interesting.  The whole year seemed like a down year for HEA typical power schools.  
It'll be interesting to see if that disparity plays out on the ice.  Not just for UND, but for all the teams playing the HEA teams in the first round.

Indeed. I should have added we'll beat them with depth.

[atxsioux]

2 hours ago, brianvf said:

I saw that stat as well, and it matches with the UConn HEA final game.  
UConn had them hemmed in their zone for shifts at a time.  Mack's goalie played well, but some of the shots were just dumb luck that they didn't go in for UConn.
If UND gets that many chances in tight, I like their chances.
Merrimack seemed to do a really good job blocking shots, but the number of high quality chances that they gave up was pretty crazy.

On a similar note to this Princeton seemed to be holding their own against Dartmouth. Cool story for Dartmouth this year but really think they are a team that could get exposed. Princeton had a 5-3 powerplay that was tough to watch, not sure if they got more than 1 very lousy shot off. They're not playing any team in the NCAAs that's gona make it that easy on them.

 

Wisconsin has some pretty nice odds to win outright in that game if you're in a state where you can bet.

[Blackheart]

1 hour ago, burd said:

Like Northeastern in 2016?

Good memory, although they had gone 20-1-2 in their previous 23 games prior to playing the Sioux.  They scored a breakaway on UND in the first 3 minutes and didn't do much after that.  Merrimack hasn't had quite the same run but their goalie is playing well and sometimes that's enough.  Here's to UND getting the first 3 goals of the game.