WCHA Rocks!

[Poncho & Lefty]

Hey guys Poncho here, i'd just like to say this bogus unbalanced schedule is gonna haunt some deserving teams. Maybe a CC or Denver could get the short end of this stick my friends. Back when I played junior hockey up in the boondocks of Canada we played an unbalanced schedule that knocked us out of the playoffs. We needed a win going into our 7th game of the year with the Lanook Falls Flying Dutchmen and we lost 4-1. Everyone else played them 6 times and we missed that playoff spot. so hopefully the WCHA works this mess out and get back to a grit and bones schedule, so we can decide a real winner.

[sagard]

So I'm kind of a stats nerd, but here goes anyways.

Using Krach (Bradley-Terry) rankings one can calculate odds of a team beating another team. By extending that one can then calculate how many points a team would "expect" to earn over that team and if calculated for all the WCHA teams one can calculate the amount of points you would "expect" for that team in WCHA play. Then by imposing another teams schedule on the first team, one can approximate the amount of points the unbalanced schedule is costing them.

This table shows last years Gophers would have expected to earn three points more had they played the UW schedule. Coincidently they did in fact finish 3pts back of UW. Currently, this year the Gophers (and UND) would expect to earn one less point had they been playing the UW schedule. If UMD turns it around that one point gap would likely widen to two or possibly three points.

As for fixing the problem, I don't think it will happen. Two or three points isn't enough for the WCHA care.

If it were me I would live with the unbalanced schedule but modify the playoff format. The 4 vs. 5 game would be Tuesday at the higher seeds rink. Short rest for both teams instead of getting only 15 hrs rest before taking on the WCHA #1.

If anyone wants the spreadsheet I used or further explaination send me a PM or an email.

[Stack]

On the topic of the thread, here are the current top 5 ranked by Bradley-Terry:

1. Minnesota 256.8100 10-3-0 77.0429

2. Colorado College 189.8530 10-2-0 37.9707

3. Denver 148.5680 8-5-0 92.8551

4. Wisconsin 141.4880 10-4-0 56.5952

5. North Dakota 100.0000 9-5-2 60.0000

What's most interesting to me is how ridiculously lower the strength-of-schedule is for the CCHA/HE teams that appear in the top 10.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And just think. The Sioux have 5 losses this year. One to #1 Minnesota, one to #2 CC, two to #4 Wisconsin, and one to #6 BC. Off all these games the only game they truly sucked was the 6-0 loss to Minnesota.

[iceberg]

If it were me I would live with the unbalanced schedule but modify the playoff format. The 4 vs. 5 game would be Tuesday at the higher seeds rink. Short rest for both teams instead of getting only 15 hrs rest before taking on the WCHA #1.

or less if MN is either the 2 or 3 seed (as a couple years ago when UMD was the 5 seed, beat UND and had to be ready by 2PM the next day to play CC)

[iceberg]

This may sound very elitist but how is this. We arbitrarily name "the big six"  Minnesota, Nodak, Wisconsin, CC, Denver and Duluth. All these teams get 4 games a year with each other. Then we have an unbalanced schedule with the rest of them.

I know the "other" schools would hate it.

Just an idea.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I would like these 4 teams get 4 games against each other each year

UND, UMD, MN, WI

And alternate the other 6..

Whats dumb is CC & Denver ALWAYS get 4 games against each other, yet UMD, MN and UMD only play each other 2 games this year?

[schmidtdoggydog]

Whats dumb is CC & Denver ALWAYS get 4 games against each other

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That is because they are each others' main rivals under the current system.

[siouxtatoo42]

That is because they are each others' main rivals under the current system.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Then explain why UND only plays the gophers once this year, and the second weekend of wcha play on top of that. there isn't a bigger rivalry in the wcha than sioux-goooffer and every fan that knows anything about hockey will testify to that (wisc-goof a close second). if denver and cc play each other four times every year there is a different explanation than main rivalry. correct me if i'm wrong, but UND hasn't even played wisconsin 4 times a year (with this year being the exception) in quite some time, i might be wrong about that, but i remember they played one weekend and it alternated home sites for a number of years in a row.

[Jackson]

Many Gopher and Wisco fans would say Minnesota v Sconnie is a bigger rivalry than Minnesota v NoDak.

The problem I see with the unbalanced schedule isn't the possible number of points a team may or may not end up with but it is not being able to play games against your best rivals. I enjoy the whole week leading up to a series against NoDak or Sconnie.

[dagies]

Siouxtatto42, you need to get up to speed on the WCHA definition of a "rival". I don't have all the details but essentially each team has a designated main "rival" that they always, regardless of the unbalanced scheduling, will play 4 times in a year.

With all other teams in the league you may get them 2 games or 4 games depending on the vagaries of the scheduling for that year.

I believe MN's main rival is WI

UND is with St. Cloud

Denver is with CC

Duluth is with 'kato?

AA and Tech?

[DMT]

Then explain why UND only plays the gophers once this year, and the second weekend of wcha play on top of that. there isn't a bigger rivalry in the wcha than sioux-goooffer and every fan that knows anything about hockey will testify to that (wisc-goof a close second). if denver and cc play each other four times every year there is a different explanation than main rivalry. correct me if i'm wrong, but UND hasn't even played wisconsin 4 times a year (with this year being the exception) in quite some time, i might be wrong about that, but i remember they played one weekend and it alternated home sites for a number of years in a row.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Because of Donny Lucia's "rival" system.

UND-SCSU

UM-UW

DU-CC

UMD-MTU

MSUM-UAA

[siouxtatoo42]

Because of Donny Lucia's "rival" system.

UND-SCSU

UM-UW

DU-CC

UMD-MTU

MSUM-UAA

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i guess i was unaware of that. is the donny lucia thing for real or is that a pot shot?? just curious. i guess i'm not up to speed on the inner workings of scheduling, i was under the assumption that the WCHA would recognize some of the bigger series in the league, there are some series where it doesn't matter how good the teams are, you just don't know who's coming away with how many points, they are that intense of rivalry. thanks for droppin the knowledge on my uneducated bit.

[PCM]

is the donny lucia thing for real or is that a pot shot??

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's real. How could anyone possibly make up anything like that?

[siouxtatoo42]

It's real. How could anyone possibly make up anything like that?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

a true sioux fan could make up just about anything the make fun of the rats down there in dinky town

[sagard]

a true sioux fan could make up just about anything the make fun of the rats down there in dinky town

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I like "golden" rats.

[The Sicatoka]

I like "golden" rats.

I go with "Moldin' Rodents".

[The Sicatoka]

Rivals scheduling in a nutshell (and it was developed by none other than Don Lucia):

This approach began in 2002-2003. Each team has a "rival". You play them four times per season (2H/2A).

Of each other rival pair you play one half of the pair for four games (2H/2A) and the other half you only play two games against (either H or A). There's one other thing: You play two of the "two games only" teams at home and two on the road.

All that gets you to a 28 game schedule: four with rival, six with each of four other rivals pairing.

This year's UND schedule:

SCSU: H & A (rival)

UM: H

UW: H & A

UMD: A

MSU-Mankato: H & A

DU: H

CC: H & A

MTU: A

UAA: H & A

(These two are scheduling rivals because of travel concerns, namely the toughest places to get to.)

Last year (2003-2004) it was:

SCSU H/A; UM H/A; UW A; UMD H/A; MSU-M A; DU H/A; CC H; MTU H/A; UAA H

2002-2003:

SCSU H/A; UM A; UW H/A; UMD H; MSU-M H/A; DU A; CC H/A; MTU H; UAA H/A (Remember when UM didn't come to Grand Forks?)

There's a bigger "rotation" to the whole scheduling process as well. In the 2002-2003 season UND/UM was two games at UM, last year it was four, this year it's two at UND, next year, well, you can figure it out.

Heck, I'll take a swing at predicting UND's 2004-2005 schedule right now:

H & A: SCSU, UM, UMD, DU, MTU

Home only: UW, MSU-Mankato

Away only: CC, UAA

[Shawn-O]

Given the limitation on number of games, it's about as good of system as we will get. If I were commissioner for a day, I'd make UMD our natural rival, and pair up MSU-M & SCSU, and MTU with UAA. This would pave the way for the next move, kicking MTU and UAA out of the league and going home-and-home all around again.

[siouxtatoo42]

Rivals scheduling in a nutshell (and it was developed by none other than Don Lucia):

This approach began in 2002-2003. Each team has a "rival". You play them four times per season (2H/2A).

Of each other rival pair you play one half of the pair for four games (2H/2A) and the other half you only play two games against (either H or A). There's one other thing: You play two of the "two games only" teams at home and two on the road.

All that gets you to a 28 game schedule: four with rival, six with each of four other rivals pairing.

This year's UND schedule:

SCSU: H & A (rival)

UM: H

UW: H & A

UMD: A

MSU-Mankato: H & A

DU: H

CC: H & A

MTU: A

UAA: H & A

(These two are scheduling rivals because of travel concerns, namely the toughest places to get to.)

Last year (2003-2004) it was:

SCSU H/A; UM H/A; UW A; UMD H/A; MSU-M A; DU H/A; CC H; MTU H/A; UAA H

2002-2003:

SCSU H/A; UM A; UW H/A; UMD H; MSU-M H/A; DU A; CC H/A; MTU H; UAA H/A (Remember when UM didn't come to Grand Forks?)

There's a bigger "rotation" to the whole scheduling process as well. In the 2002-2003 season UND/UM was two games at UM, last year it was four, this year it's two at UND, next year, well, you can figure it out.

Heck, I'll take a swing at predicting UND's 2004-2005 schedule right now:

H & A: SCSU, UM, UMD, DU, MTU

Home only: UW, MSU-Mankato

Away only: CC, UAA

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

thank you for the info, that makes sense, but i agree with us and umd being natural rivals, also with kicking tech and uaa out, they both can go ccha, there's little competition there anyways (michigan excl.)

[redwing77]

thank you for the info, that makes sense, but i agree with us and umd being natural rivals, also with kicking tech and uaa out, they both can go ccha, there's little competition there anyways (michigan excl.)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Uh, I guess I'll disagree with you on MTU, but my thoughts on UAA:

UAA and UAF fans always look forward to facing off against each other. A Natural rival AND a natural travel partner, perhaps. The con with UAA going to CCHA is, of course, scheduling and cost related. It's not going to cost UAA any more to be in the CCHA travel wise, but it is going to cost all of the other CCHA teams (sans UAF) extra travel expenses because instead of one opponent (2 weekends perhaps) you will essentially be doubling their travelling to Alaska, which is expensive for even 1 2 game series. The question is: Does a rivalry constitute a bigger upside than travel expenses of all of the other teams in the division? Right now, the answer is no. UAA will remain part of the WCHA.

MTU I will not agree to leave the WCHA. Here's why:

First of all, MTU was, if I recall correctly (you all will correct me if I'm wrong), one of the founding members of the WCHA. They devised the McNaughton Cup. They still own it as well despite it's travelling. Michigan was a founding member of the WCHA as well, but they left voluntarily to help the CCHA get off he ground. You can't kick a founding member out of the division just because the place they are from doesn't convenience you.

We'll see the WCHA expand before we'll see them contract. The obvious teams to be welcomed into the mix would be Bemidji State and UNO.

[01grad]

WCHA rocks some more lists (overseas former college NHL'ers)

No North Dakota players listed, though I would think some are.

INCH LINK

How could we check their stats?

AUSTRIA

Player College (NHL Team) European Team

Jason Krog New Hampshire (Anaheim) Villach

FINLAND

Player College (NHL Team) European Team

Ryan Malone St. Cloud State (Pittsburgh) Espoo

Jarkko Ruutu Michigan Tech (Vancouver) HIFK

Duvie Westcott St. Cloud State (Columbus) Jyvaskyla

Adam Hall Michigan State (Nashville) KalPa

FRANCE

Player College (NHL Team) European Team

Mark Rycroft Denver (St. Louis) Briancon

Steve Reinprecht Wisconsin (Calgary) Mulhouse

GERMANY

Player College (NHL Team) European Team

Jim Dowd Lake Superior State (Montreal) Hamburg

Tom Preissing Colorado College (San Jose) Krefeld

Andy McDonald Colgate (Anaheim) Ingolstadt

Mike York Michigan State (Edmonton) Iserlohn

Eric Boguniecki New Hampshire (St. Louis) Nurenberg

GREAT BRITAIN

Player College (NHL Team) European Team

Derek Bekar New Hampshire (NY Islanders) Dundee

ITALY

Player College (NHL Team) European Team

Matt Cullen St. Cloud State (Florida) Cortina

Craig Adams Harvard (Carolina) Milano

RUSSIA

Player College (NHL Team) European Team

Garth Snow Maine (NY Islanders) SKA St. Petersburg

SLOVENIA

Player College (NHL Team) European Team

Matt Pettinger Denver (Washington) ZM Olimpija

SWITZERLAND

Player College (NHL Team) European Team

Jeff Halpern Princeton (Washington) Ajoie

Paul Martin Minnesota (New Jersey) Fribourg-Gotteron

Andy Sutton Michigan Tech (unsigned) GCK

Martin St. Louis Vermont (Tampa Bay) Lausanne

Dany Heatley Wisconsin (Atlanta) SC Bern

SWEDEN

Player College (NHL Team) European Team

Ian Moran Boston College (Boston) Bofors

Tyler Arnason St. Cloud State (Chicago) Byrnas

Marty Turco Michigan (Dallas) Djurgarden

Dan Boyle Miami (Tampa Bay) Djurgarden

Mike Comrie Michigan (Phoenix) Farjestad

Jamal Mayers Western Michigan (St. Louis) Hammarby

Brendan Morrison Michigan (Vancouver) Linkoping

Mike Knuble Michigan (Philadelphia) Linkoping

Shawn Horcoff Michigan State (Edmonton) Mora

[The Sicatoka]

Given the limitation on number of games, it's about as good of system as we will get.  If I were commissioner for a day, I'd make UMD our natural rival, and pair up MSU-M & SCSU, and MTU with UAA. 

I agree with that much.

When the UAlaskas (A and F) came into DI hockey it was on purpose the one went CCHA and one went WCHA. Why? Travel. Two trips to Alaska wouldn't be cheap and wouldn't be easy on players.

[Smoggy]

I'd like the WCHA go to like a rankings-schedule. The top five teams from the previous years rankings have to play 4 times. Bottom five vs. each other 4 times.

The top 5 only plays the bottom 5 twice each.

Using the Sioux as an example, that would give them 16 games against top teams and 10 games against the bottom. This is two games short, so the extra two games come form the #1 vs. #10 again, 2 vs. 9 and so on down.

While this method would even out the WCHA (not like it needs it) by letting some bottom teams gain some victories, it would probably hurt the WCHA's teams rankings since the top teams wouldn't get the extra padding games from bottom feeders.

The tough part would be who gets home and away against the bottom.

[Poncho & Lefty]

Hey Poncho here, nothing new to add just thought i'd give kudos to Cali for a good idea. Hopefully we get a system similar to that at some point.