WPoS Posted March 25, 2004 Share Posted March 25, 2004 WPoS must have missed the Mariucci Classic. MU has no chance. I'll take UND by three if they matchup. HEY NOW! FYI my pics: Denver Minnesota Maine Boston College Hey I gotta pick ONE upset! Drop the puck (throw the dart)! WPoS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jloos Posted March 25, 2004 Share Posted March 25, 2004 FYI my pics: Denver Minnesota Maine Boston College Hey I gotta pick ONE upset! Drop the puck (throw the dart)! WPoS I gotta pick two upsets, WI and Notre Dame. That's right the Fighting Sioux will battle the other politically incorrect teams. I believe Miami used to be the Redskins so we will beat the Crusaders, Miami (formally Redskins), then the Fighting Irish. Unfortunately none of the teams in the East have names the leftists complain about, maybe WI can change their name to the Drunken Krauts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagard Posted March 26, 2004 Share Posted March 26, 2004 So I was asking myself. What are the current actual likelyhood of my team winning the tourney. Well using the siouxsports.com KRACH, here is what I came up with. UND is a STRONG favorite, as they should be. They have had the largest margin between the #1 Krach team and #2 Krach team that I can remember. The most powerful number to me is that the Sioux have nearly a 50% chance of playing in the final. Also, no matter how great your team is, chances of winning the NCAA's aren't that great. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farce poobah Posted March 26, 2004 Share Posted March 26, 2004 Frozen Four Picks: UMD (if their roster is full; otherwise, they don't have the depth to match with the Gophers on Sunday) Wisconsin (their style of play is well suited for their draw) New Hampshire (BC injuries, rust, slump) UND After that, I have no idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted March 26, 2004 Author Share Posted March 26, 2004 So I was asking myself. What are the current actual likelyhood of my team winning the tourney. Well using the siouxsports.com KRACH, here is what I came up with. UND is a STRONG favorite, as they should be. They have had the largest margin between the #1 Krach team and #2 Krach team that I can remember. The most powerful number to me is that the Sioux have nearly a 50% chance of playing in the final. Also, no matter how great your team is, chances of winning the NCAA's aren't that great. Cool, thanks Sagard! I was meaning to do that all week, but trying to make the crazy bracket work has consumed most of my time reserved for such foolishness. I'm stunned to see how high the probability for UND is; I would've expected more along the lines of 10%, since it takes 4 wins and the matchups against teams like BC/Minnesota/Maine are only around 60%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
streakygopher Posted March 26, 2004 Share Posted March 26, 2004 Once again, these numbers are fun to play with, but they really mean nothing at all. One bad bounce of the puck could make UND's chance of winning the title ZERO PERCENT. Also, once again, nobody is giving MN much of a chance even though they are a No. 1 seed. UND definitely has the easy road to the FF (as well they should; they earned it), but once they get there it will be a hellacious battle (probably against Minnesota or UMD). There really are 4 or 5 teams that can win this tournament...so UND's percentages are just a little inflated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted March 26, 2004 Author Share Posted March 26, 2004 Once again, these numbers are fun to play with, but they really mean nothing at all. One bad bounce of the puck could make UND's chance of winning the title ZERO PERCENT. Also, once again, nobody is giving MN much of a chance even though they are a No. 1 seed. That's not really how probability works. If you flip a fair (50-50) coin and a head comes up, that doesn't mean the odds of getting a tail were 0%; going through the deterministic event doesn't affect the prior probabilities. KRACH predicts the possibility that UND could lose -- it thinks there's a 5% chance of UND losing to Holy Cross, a 30% chance of not making the Frozen Four, and that the Sioux are 7:3 more likely to lose the tournament than win it. No person is denying Minnesota any credit, KRACH is quite mechanically crunching the chain of who Minnesota has beat and who has beat them to come up with probabilities of victories for future contests. Minnesota is just an ID number to the emotionless code calculating those probabilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
streakygopher Posted March 26, 2004 Share Posted March 26, 2004 That's not really how probability works. If you flip a fair coin and the odds are 50-50, then a head comes up, that doesn't mean the odds of getting a tail were 0%; going through the deterministic event doesn't affect the prior probabilities. KRACH predicts the possibility that UND could lose -- it thinks there's a 5% chance of UND losing to Holy Cross, and a 30% chance of not making the Frozen Four. No person is denying Minnesota any credit, KRACH is quite mechanically crunching the chain of who Minnesota has beat and who has beat them to come up with probabilities of victories for future contests. Minnesota is just an ID number to the emotionless code calculating those probabilities. Yes, I am aware that these truly are not "odds" based on probability. I think we're saying the same thing. Assigning "chance" to the outcome of a hockey tournament is pretty far fetched (or at minimum not very scientific)...wins and lossed come and go with injuries, key personnel not playing etc. etc...but then that's what gambling is all about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagard Posted March 26, 2004 Share Posted March 26, 2004 Not sure how many are interested, but I was. So here are links to the two previous seasons KRACH based probabilities. 2002 Odds 2003 Odds 2004 Odds The Gophers were not the favorite either year, but they had MUCH easier routes to the Frozen Four. I have hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted March 26, 2004 Author Share Posted March 26, 2004 Yes, I am aware that these truly are not "odds" based on probability. I think we're saying the same thing. Assigning "chance" to the outcome of a hockey tournament is pretty far fetched (or at minimum not very scientific)...wins and lossed come and go with injuries, key personnel not playing etc. etc...but then that's what gambling is all about. No doubt any situation, such as injury, that suggests a team will perform vastly differently in the tournament than the rest of the season being analyzed would make the probabilities less useful; that is indeed what gambling is all about. Where I think Sagard's analysis is really interesting is in trying to figure out UND matches up with Holy Cross. Could've been 5:1, could've been 2000:1, I find the 95:5 interesting. Clearly when the Sioux match up 60:40 with a B.C. or Minnesota, it's anyone's game. Bracket Pick'Em Updated Info The first game is at 5et, so I'm going to close new entries at about 4et. I'll create two leaderboards (by Saturday at the latest): 1) 1 point per game (this will be the more interesting one since we're such a homogeneous crowd and widely picked UND to go all the way) 2) traditional bracket scoring: each round worth a fixed number of points, so the value of individual picks doubles each round (more traditional, but the homogeneity of our picks will make this less interesting). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfm567b27 Posted March 26, 2004 Share Posted March 26, 2004 Anyone pick any interesting upsets? it appears to me that most people picked the same teams to win... Miami-Ohio....first round will upset. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmail Posted March 26, 2004 Share Posted March 26, 2004 Anyone pick any interesting upsets? it appears to me that most people picked the same teams to win... Wisconsin over Maine, and Wisconsin over BC. But hey... what do I know! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WPoS Posted March 26, 2004 Share Posted March 26, 2004 Not sure how many are interested, but I was. So here are links to the two previous seasons KRACH based probabilities. 2002 Odds 2003 Odds 2003 Odds The Gophers were not the favorite either year, but they had MUCH easier routes to the Frozen Four. I have hope. Ok, Mr. stats man, can you dig up the last time the top seeds made it to the FF? And the last time the #1, #1 seed won? IMO, being the #1, #1 seed is NOT the place to be...altho UND is so strong this year they may just beat the odds... C'mon Gophs do it again! We've (well some of us) have faith! WPoS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted March 26, 2004 Author Share Posted March 26, 2004 Ok, Mr. stats man, can you dig up the last time the top seeds made it to the FF? And the last time the #1, #1 seed won? IMO, being the #1, #1 seed is NOT the place to be...altho UND is so strong this year they may just beat the odds... I've got the 1st one -- In '96 #1 BU, #2 Michigan, #1 CC, and #2 Vermont were the Final Four. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagard Posted March 26, 2004 Share Posted March 26, 2004 Ok, Mr. stats man, can you dig up the last time the top seeds made it to the FF? And the last time the #1, #1 seed won? IMO, being the #1, #1 seed is NOT the place to be...altho UND is so strong this year they may just beat the odds... C'mon Gophs do it again! We've (well some of us) have faith! WPoS Ah WPos, we got plenty of stats supporting the Gophs in my house... This group just isn't the group to share 'em with. I'm safely in with the 7% picking the eventual champ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagard Posted March 26, 2004 Share Posted March 26, 2004 I've got the 1st one -- In '96 #1 BU, #2 Michigan, #1 CC, and #2 Vermont were the Final Four. 1996 was a terrible year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthDakotaHockey Posted March 26, 2004 Share Posted March 26, 2004 My picks, for what they are worth, which is not much. North Dakota Minnesota-Duluth Wisconsin Boston College. Sioux beat Wisconsin in the Final. The taste of revenge will be sweet. Gophers will be on the shelf again for another quarter century, until another governor comes out of the Deep South to be President of the United States. History does have a way of repeating itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted March 27, 2004 Share Posted March 27, 2004 Gophers will be on the shelf again for another quarter century, until another governor comes out of the Deep South to be President of the United States. History does have a way of repeating itself. I don't think any of us would be too disapointed if that happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavedurtis Posted March 27, 2004 Share Posted March 27, 2004 I don't think any of us would be too disapointed if that happened. Some of us would! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted March 27, 2004 Author Share Posted March 27, 2004 With 6 of the weekend's 12 games complete, the consensus picks have hit every game correctly (the only consensus predicted upset so far being UW over OSU). Those of us who tried to be clever are hurting, while there's a big cluster of "play-it-safe" types tied up for 1st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sioux fan in phoenix Posted March 27, 2004 Share Posted March 27, 2004 1 wrong choice & I'm tied with 79 others for 2nd place. Hopefully you implemented some tiebreaker rules Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigmrg74 Posted March 28, 2004 Share Posted March 28, 2004 1 wrong choice & I'm tied with 79 others for 2nd place. Hopefully you implemented some tiebreaker rules That could be done, but who really wants to play out that many games of Rock, Paper, Scissors?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoggy Posted March 28, 2004 Share Posted March 28, 2004 With 6 of the weekend's 12 games complete, the consensus picks have hit every game correctly (the only consensus predicted upset so far being UW over OSU). Those of us who tried to be clever are hurting, while there's a big cluster of "play-it-safe" types tied up for 1st. Jim, I can see that you, PCM, and I like to take risks. Of course, we're now hurting by being at the bottom of the predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldy313 Posted March 28, 2004 Share Posted March 28, 2004 Nothing against KRACH, but like was stated computers don't and can't take things like injuries into consideration. FWIW Vegas had BC as the pre Tournamnet favorite followed by UND, Minnesota, UMD and Maine. Of course the East being the easier bracket and the finals being played in Boston, it would be hard to argue against BC being the favorite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted March 28, 2004 Author Share Posted March 28, 2004 Jim, I can see that you, PCM, and I like to take risks. Of course, we're now hurting by being at the bottom of the predictions. Yeah, I'm more of a first place or last place kind of guy -- not shooting for a safe second. We'll see how the other #1 seeds fare this afternoon, but with one big notable exception (), it's been a somewhat predictable tournament. Only four brave soles had Denver defeating the Sioux in the West region final. It will be quite difficult for the 90% of Sioux fans here who picked UND to go all the way to win, even in the "single point" scoring scheme, because they're guaranteed to miss at least the two more games for which they picked the Sioux. Of course, a Minnesota loss would put our Gopher-fan visitors in much the same boat. Current standings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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