Agreed, have to factor in Eur ranking too which normally push players back a decent amount (see caufield last year). But your right, could sneak into the 2nd potentially with continued point production.
edit- nm I get it, you already factored in euro ranking. If he sneaks into the 2nd that’s best case scenario and he’ll be on next years team. TBH, not sure how he’s not on next years team.