Bracketology

[seeboys]

Anyone have any knowledge of what's going on with the Pairwise after this weekend? I thought I saw somewhere that the Sioux dropped to 4th.

http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/pwr/

Sioux drop to 4th

[HeidiSioux62]

So how do things shake out when Miami FINALLY plays their 10th TUC game this weekend? Do they flip the UND comparison just by playing the game? I think they have a pretty good record against the few they've played.

[sioux7>5]

Having already admitted that I do not understand all the math that goes into the Pairwise, I do not get how we drop with two ties and the goofs move up with a split. That makes no sense to me.

[Big A HG]

So how do things shake out when Miami FINALLY plays their 10th TUC game this weekend? Do they flip the UND comparison just by playing the game? I think they have a pretty good record against the few they've played.

Yeah, they'll flip it. I think they will with CC as well. If they lose that 10th game, we'll win the advantage there...as long as we don't lose any more as well. However, if our win percentage drops anymore than it is now, Miami would be able to lose their 10th TUC game and still get the point over us. Not much we can do about it other than just win, but kind of sucks if we were to lose again.

[stickboy1956]

So how do things shake out when Miami FINALLY plays their 10th TUC game this weekend? Do they flip the UND comparison just by playing the game? I think they have a pretty good record against the few they've played.

Bowling Green is not a TUC - the only teams in the CCHA that are +25 in RPI right now are Mich, Miami, Mich St. and NDame. They won't play a TUC untill the CCHA tournament.

[RedFrog]

Having already admitted that I do not understand all the math that goes into the Pairwise, I do not get how we drop with two ties and the goofs move up with a split. That makes no sense to me.

Actually, the way the Pairwise works, is by comparing your team (The Sioux) against all other teams under consideration(TUC)(Top 25 of RPI). The way they compare them is by awarding points in 4 statistical categories:

1. RPI - higher RPI wins 1 comparison point

2. TUC - higher win percentage against TUC's wins 1 comparison point. Both teams must have at least 10 games played against TUC's for this comparison to be used(see Miami)

3. COp - higher win percentage against common opponents for the 2 teams being compared wins 1 comparison point.

4. H2H - Head to head, each team receives 1 point for a win against the team they are being compared against.

Now, to determine where you sit in the Pairwise, they add up how many total comparisons each team wins and rank them from most comparison wins to least.

1t Colorado College 23

1t Michigan 23

3 New Hampshire 22

4t North Dakota 21

4t Miami 21

6 Denver 19

7 Clarkson 17

8t Boston College 16

8t St. Cloud State 16

10 Michigan State 15

11 Minnesota State 13

12 Minnesota 12

13 Wisconsin 11

14t Boston University 10

14t Minnesota-Duluth 10

16t Notre Dame 8

16t Vermont 8

16t Harvard 8

19 Massachusetts 6

20t Providence 5

20t Princeton 5

22t Quinnipiac 4

22t Michigan Tech 4

24 Cornell 2

25 Northeastern 1

The number you see to the right of the team is how many comparison's they have won versus the other 24 TUC's. Currently the Sioux are winning 21 of 24 possible comparisons. They are losing comparisons to Michigan, Colorado College and New Hampshire. Everyone else on the list, the Sioux are winning the comparison.

If you go the comparison chart on USCHO you can see each comparison individually to see how close each team is with each other, or what teams need to do to flip comparisons versus other teams. Jim also has a good chart to view the comparisons.

Here is the Sioux comparison chart.

Let's take a look at one of the Sioux comparisons - We'll use the Miami comparison, whom the Sioux are currently tied for 4th with.

               und     	vs 	mu

	.5866 	1 	RPI 	0 	.5808 	

19-8-4 	.6774 	0 	TUC 	0 	.7222 	6-2-1

2-1-2 	.6000 	0 	COp 	1 	1.000 	3-0-0

0-0-0 		0 	H2H 	0 		0-0-0

		1 	TOT 	1 		[/codebox]

Now, as you see, each team wins 1 comparison point, thus making the comparison between these 2 teams a tie. The Sioux win the tie breaker as the higher RPI is used to break ties. You'll see that Miami only has a 6-2-1 record versus TUC's, that's only 9 games, therefore that category is thrown out and no comparison points are awarded. Miami plays Bowling Green this coming weekend, and they are not a TUC, so we'll have to wait another week to see if Miami will hit the 10 game mark.

Now lets look at the COp for the 2 teams. The common opponents each team played are Michigan State and St. Cloud State. The Sioux went 1-0 vs Mich. St. and 1-1-2 vs SCSU, whereas, Miami went 2-0 vs Mich. St. and 1-0 vs SCSU. There is little chance we can flip this category after this last weekends splits vs SCSU.

I hope this all helps explain a little bit how the PWR works. It's all about winning the comparisons.

[gopherz]

WOW! :D

Thanks RED!!

[MafiaMan]

I believe I had the years mixed up...

the 1997-1998 WCHA Final Five was held at the Bradley Center in Milwaukee.

The 1998-1999 Western Regional was held at the Dane Co. Coliseum in Madison.

West Regional, March 27-28

Dane County Coliseum; Madison, Wisconsin

All times are Central.

March 27, 1 p.m.:

No. 3 seed Colorado College (28-11-1) vs. No. 6 seed St. Lawrence (23-12-3).

March 27, 4:30 p.m.:

No. 4 seed Boston College (25-11-4) vs. No. 5 seed Northern Michigan (22-14-5).

March 28, 2 p.m.:

Winner of Colorado College/St. Lawrence vs. No. 2 seed Michigan State (28-5-7).

March 28, 5:30 p.m.:

Winner of Boston College/Northern Michigan vs. No. 1 seed North Dakota (32-5-2).

[farce poobah]

March 28, 2 p.m.:

Winner of Colorado College/St. Lawrence vs. No. 2 seed Michigan State (28-5-7).

March 28, 5:30 p.m.:

Winner of Boston College/Northern Michigan vs. No. 1 seed North Dakota (32-5-2).

Thanks for bringing that up. While you're at it, why don't you give me a nice paper cut and pour some lemon juice in it.

That was the LONGEST drive home from a game EVER.

[AZSIOUX]

Thanks for bringing that up. While you're at it, why don't you give me a nice paper cut and pour some lemon juice in it.

That was the LONGEST drive home from a game EVER.

my drive from the springs back to az was pretty bad as well after the 1-0 loss to denver when god and company lost that game, my grandpa and i bailed out at 3 am from our hotel saying screw this place and drove straight through 12 hours to az. i didnt even realize it until my gpa said wow, you havent said a word in 6 hours then i took over the wheel being the stand up grand son that i am

[farce poobah]

my drive from the springs back to az was pretty bad as well after the 1-0 loss to denver when god and company lost that game, my grandpa and i bailed out at 3 am from our hotel saying screw this place and drove straight through 12 hours to az. i didnt even realize it until my gpa said wow, you havent said a word in 6 hours then i took over the wheel being the stand up grand son that i am

Been there, done that. I rode with a friend, one who used to go to hockey games with me. Now we just play golf.

Just stare at the dotted white line on I-94 "forever" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Here I am getting all worked up again. Where's my nitro?

[AZSIOUX]

college hockey news bracket breakdown

bracket breakdown

2-3-4. Michigan, New Hampshire, North Dakota

There's very little New Hampshire can do to lose comparisons to CC or North Dakota, or to win comparisons its currently losing to Michigan and Miami. The only possibility is if North Dakota plays and beats CC, while UNH plays and beats Northeastern or BC. Neither will happen this weekend, but could happen the week after.

Assuming this is the top four, then we deal with placement. Colorado College must be in Colorado Springs for the West Regional, by rule. By logic, New Hampshire will be in Worcester at the Northeast Regional. That leaves the other two. At this point, I believe this will come down to whether Wisconsin makes the tournament, and which team, Michigan or North Dakota, ends up higher seeded overall. That's because Wisconsin must be in the Midwest Regional in Madison; and Wisconsin is a likely No. 4 seed. Then we run into what's become a relatively common scenario since the 16-team tournament: Do you "protect" the No. 1 seed? The answer has generally been "yes," and we agree.

In other words, the difference between a 4 seed like Wisconsin and a 4 seed like Army is, no offense, pretty big. So if a team like, say, Michigan, is the No. 1 overall seed, it should get "protected" and not have to play Wisconsin in Madison. If that means moving Michigan to the Albany Regional (slightly farther away but still a flight), then so be it.

But here's another wrinkle ... North Dakota and Wisconsin are in the same conference. This complicates matters. Now it's not just about protecting Michigan, but also about avoiding first-round intra-conference matchups. In 2003, the first year of the 16-team tournament, this exact scenario happened, and the committee pitted No. 1 overall Cornell against Minnesota State instead of switching Minnesota State to play a WCHA first-round team, or changing its seed. Cornell went ballistic

[gopherz]

college hockey news bracket breakdown

bracket breakdown

2-3-4. Michigan, New Hampshire, North Dakota

There's very little New Hampshire can do to lose comparisons to CC or North Dakota, or to win comparisons its currently losing to Michigan and Miami. The only possibility is if North Dakota plays and beats CC, while UNH plays and beats Northeastern or BC. Neither will happen this weekend, but could happen the week after.

Assuming this is the top four, then we deal with placement. Colorado College must be in Colorado Springs for the West Regional, by rule. By logic, New Hampshire will be in Worcester at the Northeast Regional. That leaves the other two. At this point, I believe this will come down to whether Wisconsin makes the tournament, and which team, Michigan or North Dakota, ends up higher seeded overall. That's because Wisconsin must be in the Midwest Regional in Madison; and Wisconsin is a likely No. 4 seed. Then we run into what's become a relatively common scenario since the 16-team tournament: Do you "protect" the No. 1 seed? The answer has generally been "yes," and we agree.

In other words, the difference between a 4 seed like Wisconsin and a 4 seed like Army is, no offense, pretty big. So if a team like, say, Michigan, is the No. 1 overall seed, it should get "protected" and not have to play Wisconsin in Madison. If that means moving Michigan to the Albany Regional (slightly farther away but still a flight), then so be it.

But here's another wrinkle ... North Dakota and Wisconsin are in the same conference. This complicates matters. Now it's not just about protecting Michigan, but also about avoiding first-round intra-conference matchups. In 2003, the first year of the 16-team tournament, this exact scenario happened, and the committee pitted No. 1 overall Cornell against Minnesota State instead of switching Minnesota State to play a WCHA first-round team, or changing its seed. Cornell went ballistic

[AZSIOUX]

[gopherz]

True, true.

So AZ I have a question for you....where's a good bar/grill to watch the games in Scottsdale? Like a BWW that would have it or something? I'm planning on the Thursday play-in game plus games that following Friday

[AZSIOUX]

True, true.

So AZ I have a question for you....where's a good bar/grill to watch the games in Scottsdale? Like a BWW that would have it or something? I'm planning on the Thursday play-in game plus games that following Friday

they will be on fsn north so anywhere really sports bar wise. theres tons of them around scottsdale. im not sure if ill be going out to watch them or may be having some family over to watch them at home. will see whats up.

[gopherz]

Let me know what a good place for me to go would be. Doubt my family would want to go so it'll just be me flyin solo more than likely.

[AZSIOUX]

Let me know what a good place for me to go would be. Doubt my family would want to go so it'll just be me flyin solo more than likely.

with it being ncaa bball tourney weekend it wont be as easy but you can find a place to throw a game on for you without a problem

[Goon]

my drive from the springs back to az was pretty bad as well after the 1-0 loss to denver when god and company lost that game, my grandpa and i bailed out at 3 am from our hotel saying screw this place and drove straight through 12 hours to az. i didnt even realize it until my gpa said wow, you havent said a word in 6 hours then i took over the wheel being the stand up grand son that i am

I was sitting in my basement watching the game and after it was over I just sat there for like two hours staring at the TV screen in disbelief. and my wife came down and said you going to just sit there? I said yep.

[AZSIOUX]

new bracketology, any bracket will be tough unless you are a 1 or 2 overall seed which is still possible, well at least your first game wouldnt be that tough. anways............i dont care about having minny in this bracket but come on NCAA, dont do this again. if its done again its done on PURPOSE as they are scared shtless of having a all wcha frozen 4 or at least 3 wcha teams in. with 7 teams in there will be a interconference match up more than liekly, just tough not to but...

my scenerios

-msu sweeps minny, msu in and minny out

scsu sweeps uw, scsu in and uw is out

LEAVING 5 WCHA TEAMS IN

-minny sweeps series and msu is out someway and minny is in

-uw sweeps scsu and they are in or wins series anyway and uw is in and scsu stays in

LEAVING 6 TEAMS IN

-minny wins in 3 games over msu, both are in

-uw wins in 3 games and both uw and scsu are in

LEAVING 7 WCHA TEAMS IN

i have UND,CC,MICH, MICH ST in from this bracket

http://www.uscho.com/news/id,15442/Bracket...arch112008.html

This Week's Brackets

Colorado Springs

Bemidji State vs. Colorado College

St. Cloud State vs. Boston College

Madison

Wisconsin vs. North Dakota

Minnesota vs. Miami

Albany

Boston University vs. Michigan

Minnesota State vs. Clarkson

Worcester

Army vs. New Hampshire

Michigan State vs. Denver

Conference Breakdown

WCHA

[keikla]

With those brackets, we could still have an all-WCHA frozen 4, though highly unlikely. I don't see DU getting past UNH or MSU past Michigan. But 3 WCHAers in one bracket? There has to be some way to get around that. Although attendance in Madison would be unbelievable.

[AZSIOUX]

With those brackets, we could still have an all-WCHA frozen 4, though highly unlikely. I don't see DU getting past UNH or MSU past Michigan. But 3 WCHAers in one bracket? There has to be some way to get around that. Although attendance in Madison would be unbelievable.

of course but by having 3 wcha teams in 1 bracket is on purpose but with 7 teams thats can happen. ill stick with my theary of 5 teams with msu or minny getting knocked out with a sweep either way and scsu just beating uw knocking them out. the scenerios i listred above are just crazy and its crazy there still may be a way to get 7 teams in

only 2 weeks to go until REAL brackets come out! cant wait

[Goon]

I'll stick with my theary of 5 teams with msu or minny getting knocked out with a sweep either way and scsu just beating uw knocking them out. the scenerios i listred above are just crazy and its crazy there still may be a way to get 7 teams in

only 2 weeks to go until REAL brackets come out! cant wait

5 Teams maybe a stretch 6 but no more than that. The math won't probably allow any more 5 - 6 tops.

[mikejm]

Moy needs to come up for some air. He's jumbled the pairings in the sake of attendance, something the NCAA does only rarely. Bracket the thing as it's designed: 1-16, 2-15 etc. There is no way 3 WCHA teams go to Madison.

[Goon]

Moy needs to come up for some air. He's jumbled the pairings in the sake of attendance, something the NCAA does only rarely. Bracket the thing as it's designed: 1-16, 2-15 etc. There is no way 3 WCHA teams go to Madison.

yeah good point, does anyone know if he has ever been accurate?