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WCHA scenarios


tnt

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I thought it would be interesting to guesstimate what would happen if...

Sioux win all 4 games -- They would finish second, barring CC running the table.

win 3 and tie -- Still probably finish second.

win 3 and lose -- probably finish 3rd

Win 2 , lose 1, tie one -- 4th place finish

Win 2, lose 2 -- 5th place finish

anything worse -- on the road.

Of course the finish would depend totally on which teams the Sioux beat or lose to in the final 4 games, but that would be my guess as to where they would finish. I would like to depend on Duluth, Michigan Tech and Mankato helping the Sioux out, but I'm not going to hold my breath on that, even though I was impressed by Duluth's fight last weekend and Mankato's the weekend before. What do you think will happen down the stretch?

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FYI -- here's the annual WCHA possibilities.

In short, for UND:

* Can finish anywhere from 2nd to 7th

* Can clinch 6th with 2 points this weekend

* Can clinch 5th with 4 points this weekend

* Can no longer finish 2nd with fewer than 1 point this weekend

The last three are just the guaranteed results of UND's wins/losses. Obviously, if UND wins and other certain teams lose, they could do even better or worse.

I've seen a few other sources try to do this sort of analysis, but mess up the head-to-head problem (that is, counting the possibilities including both teams winning or losing a certain contest). So, it seemed worth getting this out there.

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We can still finish 7th, in an extreme scenario: Sioux lose both, UW sweeps, Tech sweeps, CC gets 3/4 points.

We need one win to clinch home ice. (Less than that brings the other guys back in the race.)

While you're right from a WCHA tournament seeding perspective (which would use the h2h tiebreaker to give the higher seed to UW), it's worth noting that the Sioux would actually finish tied for 6th in conference standings in that scenario.
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While you're right from a WCHA tournament seeding perspective (which would use the h2h tiebreaker to give the higher seed to UW), it's worth noting that the Sioux would actually finish tied for 6th in conference standings in that scenario.

You are correct. I was looking thru the tiebreaker with the BADgers, which we'd lose and be seeded 7th for the WCHA playoffs.

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I think it's crazy that UW can still (presumably, and riduculously luckily) tie for 4th!!

It looks like we're either UW or MTU at home? Hopefully, anyway. I think another crack at MTU would be just dandy after their sweep at the Ralph a few months ago.

I think either team is preferable to Mankato State. Right now Mankato is just sneaking in as a TUC and do not play again till the WCHA first round. If we play them in the first round and happen to sweep we would be 5-0-1 against them. Unfortunately they would most likely drop out as a TUC and we lose all the wins. So sweeping them might actually hurt our NCAA chances. I would rather play someone else and be able to cheer for Mankato to win.

UW seems to have our number recently and with Elliott, well, a hot goalie can take you a long way. The benefit of playing them is there could be a chance to knock them out of being a TUC and removing the 1-3 record we have with them. This might be the best for UND if they could sweep them.

My preference is for a matchup with MTU at the Ralph, would like to even up the season record with them. Two wins against them would help the TUC and I don't think it would cause them to drop out of the top 25 RPI...if it does, that's even better cause it would eliminate two losses on our TUC record. As long as our TUC record is above .500 then eliminating two losses is better than adding two wins.

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Plus, I don't know if anybody is excited about having to be the team to end Wisconsin's season. Defending champions, and this is their last chance to make the big dance (their only chance)!! Plus, as you said, they tend to play well at the Ralph lately, and have Elliot.

I think Tech will come to GF, and it'll be a fun weekend. Should help UND in Pairwise, correcting the two losses we already have to MTU.

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Plus, I don't know if anybody is excited about having to be the team to end Wisconsin's season. Defending champions, and this is their last chance to make the big dance (their only chance)!! Plus, as you said, they tend to play well at the Ralph lately, and have Elliot.

I think Tech will come to GF, and it'll be a fun weekend. Should help UND in Pairwise, correcting the two losses we already have to MTU.

From a PWR standpoint, the best scenario is that we would sweep Tech, MSU wins their first round series (BTW, MSU gives DU fits historically) and Wisco drops from the top 15.

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Now that Tech and Mankato proved me wrong by helping the Sioux out, I would like to see Denver and CC tie on Friday while the Sioux win. That would put the Sioux tied with Denver for 3rd and ahead of CC by 3 points. How would the tie break with Denver play out if that scenario took place?

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Now that Tech and Mankato proved me wrong by helping the Sioux out, I would like to see Denver and CC tie on Friday while the Sioux win. That would put the Sioux tied with Denver for 3rd and ahead of CC by 3 points. How would the tie break with Denver play out if that scenario took place?

Here is the breakdown as I see it:

If Denver goes 2-0 then Sioux cannot get 3rd

If Denver goes 1-1 then the Sioux need a Sweep

If Denver goes 1-0-1 then the Sioux need a Sweep, goes to tiebreaker (d)

If Denver goes 0-2 then the Sioux need at least a win and tie, one win only would give CC 3rd based on tiebreaker (b)

If Denver goes 0-1-1 then with one Sioux win it goes to tiebreaker (d). Anything more than 2 points gives UND 3rd for sure.

If Denver goes 0-0-2 then a Sioux win and tie goes to tiebreaker (d). A sweep gives UND 3rd for sure.

In all likelyhood, if it goes to tiebreaker (d) then the Sioux have the advantage (goal differential: UND +13, DU +3).

So if UND only gets a split, then the only way to get 3rd is if DU goes 0-1-1 with CC.

A Sioux sweep will probably give them 3rd as long as DU does not sweep.

(b) tiebreaker is most conference wins

(d) tiebreaker is conference goal differential.

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