Latest Regional Rankings.

[Let'sGoHawks!]

Regional Rankings

Doesn't make much sense, I guess playing Duluth hurt the Sioux's strength of schedule.

Michigan Tech #1?

Winona ahead of the Sioux?

[Cratter]

WOW. Saint Cloud loses and moved up?

http://siouxsports.com/football/rankings/ssi.php

[fightin'su]

Not to worry. The wins over UNO and USD will adjust our SSI, coupled with the teams above us that will lose because they play each other and we'll be 1 or 2.

[fightin'su]

It is kind of funny that we'll probably be ranked as high or higher in the national polls as we are in our own region.

[RD17]

I actually am worried. I spent a little time running through all of the different scenarios and I think the chances are very good that UND could finish 9-1 and finish no higher than 3rd or 4th in the region. In fact, I think the chances are slim that the Sioux get a 1 or 2 seed. This whole system is so convoluted that it's highly likely that Grand Valley smokes Northwood on Saturday (making it two straight blowout losses for Northwood) and they still would be ranked higher in the region than UND in next week's region poll.

Here's some things that need to happen for UND:

Central Washington needs to keep winning to get over .500 (they are 4-4 right now) and most importantly, they need to beat Western Washington when they play again in a couple of weeks. This would prevent WWU from finishing .700 and take points away from both SCSU and UNO since they both played them.

UNO needs to beat St. Cloud, then UND beat UNO the following weak. If SCSU doesn't pick up a 2nd loss, it would be next to impossible for UND to jump them in the regional poll.

Delta State needs to win the rest of their games to finish over .500. They lost again last week and are now just 3-4.

Ferris State needs to win 2 of its last 3 games to finish over .700. The chances of that happening are very slim as each of Ferris' final three opponents will be favored over them.

So at this point my guess is that if UND wins out they will most likely get the 3rd or 4th seed. If they lose one of the last three games, the Sioux should still get into the playoffs and be seeded somewhere between 4 and 6.

[UND92,96]

My biggest beef with the SSI is that Winona St. will likely get 14 points each for beating Bemidji St. and Concordia-SP, which frankly is absurd considering how those two teams would stack up against the top four teams in either the NCC or GLIAC. Winona is a good program, I'm not criticizing them, but they play in an incredibly weak conference and are actually rewarded for it. Their only difficult game all year was SDSU, which they lost. I'm not sure I have a better system, aside from just scrapping the whole thing and going back to the old system, which while imperfect was certainly not any LESS accurate.

[FlorenceFan]

Amen on Delta State needing to win out...we're in the same boat with you on that one.

All I can say is I'm glad it's 6 teams, and not 4 this year.

[RD17]

I think it's interesting that although the numbers are close, Grand Valley is given the benefit of the doubt over Winona in this week's regional poll, despite having a lower SSI. I would expect that UND will get the same benefit of the doubt if it comes down to a comparison with Winona. And yeah, it is a joke that beating a 9-2 team from the NCC or GLIAC carries the same weight as beating one from the NSIC. Neither Bemidji or Concordia-St. Paul would finish close to .500 in the NCC.

I have my ideas on what would make the playoff system much better and I plan on running them by some of the decision makers on the national committee after the season and seeing if it goes anywhere.

[jimdahl]

I actually am worried. I spent a little time running threw all of the different scenarios and I think the chances are very good that UND could finish 9-1 and finish no higher than 3rd for 4th in the region. In fact, I think the chances are slim that the Sioux get a 1 or 2 seed. This whole system is so convoluted that it's highly likely that Grand Valley smokes Northwood on Saturday (making it two straight blowout losses for Northwood) and they still would be ranked higher in the region than UND in next week's region poll.

If there's one thing I've determined decisively over the last few weeks, it's that there's something else going on in the regional rankings other than pure SSI/win% (GVSU > Winona, SCSU > Northwood). I suspect the wins over ranked opponents (or even an arbitrary "quality of wins") is going to matter a lot more at the end than a couple 1/10ths on SSI. It's a shame, because the system could have that all built in.

I'm not sure I have a better system, aside from just scrapping the whole thing and going back to the old system, which while imperfect was certainly not any LESS accurate.

I do, RPI. It's used everywhere else in the NCAA and doesn't unnecessarily mix win% with SOS. It evaluates them objectively, separately, and predictably. Unfortunately, it doesn't send in that balance of teams from less represented conferences that the NCAA seems to want, though I think the conference autobids more than accomplish that. Not wanting to leave selection to a formula is understandable, but you can always reserve the right to tweak in the smoke-filled room to create drama like basketball does.

[UND92,96]

If UND does finish at 9-1 but doesn't get one of the top two seeds, my recommendation for future years would be to schedule as many NSIC teams in the non-conference schedule as possible. Playing Bemidji St., Concordia-SP and either Northern St. or SW St. (along with Winona St., which I believe is already on the schedule for the next two years) may not seem very appealing to some fans, but at least it would potentially give UND the same benefit Winona St. gets by beating some of these weak teams that happen to have pretty good records.

[RD17]

If there's one thing I've determined decisively over the last few weeks, it that's there's something else going on in the regional rankings other than pure SSI/win% (GVSU > Winona, SCSU > Northwood). I suspect the wins over ranked opponents (or even an arbitrary "quality of wins") is going to matter a lot more at the end than a couple 1/10ths on SSI. It's a shame, because the system could have that all built in.

I do, RPI. It's used everywhere else in the NCAA and doesn't unnecessarily mix win% with SOS. It evaluates them objectively, separately, and predictably. Unfortunately, it doesn't send in that balance of teams that the NCAA seems to want, though I think the conference autobids more than accomplish that. Not wanting to leave selection to a formula is understandable, but you can always reserve the right to tweak in the smoke-filled room to create drama like basketball does.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Jim,

How would the RPI work when you have a conference like the GLIAC that basically plays no games outside the conference? Wouldn't the sample size be too small to get an accurate picture? My thought is that a computer system works well in most of the other sports, but with so many conferences in D2 football playing basically insular schedules, you wouldn't have enough of a cross section of games to make a good comparison. I'm asking because I have no clue how the RPI is computed.

[jimdahl]

How would the RPI work when you have a conference like the GLIAC that basically plays no games outside the conference? Wouldn't the sample size be too small to get an accurate picture? My thought is that a computer system works well in most of the other sports, but with so many conferences in D2 football playing basically insular schedules, you wouldn't have enough of a cross section of games to make a good comparison. I'm asking because I have no clue how the RPI is computed.

You're right, the insular schedules would still be a problem; however, it may not be any worse, as UND92,96 explained well above, the current SSI sure isn't immune. Scrapping the SSI just strikes me as an important first step to get rid of the arbitrary plateaus (>.700, .500-.700, <.500) and arbitrary point values (does a win over a DII opponent >.700 on the road really imply your schedule is precisely 130% more difficult than a loss to a DII opponent >.500 on the road?)

That would be a more sound rating base that the committee could tweak as desired (modify for head-to-head, common opponents, etc..., as the NCAA does for hockey) or tweak in the smoke-filled room. Since I have all the data now, maybe I'll try to run some more "standard" ratings systems against the D-II football data to see how they look.

[RD17]

You're right, the insular schedules would still be a problem; however, it may not be any worse, as UND92,96 explained well above, the current SSI sure isn't immune. What it would do would be to get rid of the arbitrary plateaus (>.700, .500-.700, <.500) and arbitrary point values (does a win over a DII opponent >.700 on the road really imply your schedule was 130% more difficult than a loss to a DII opponent >.500 on the road?) That would then result in a more sound rating that the committee could tweak as desired (modify for head-to-head, common opponents, etc..., as the NCAA does for hockey). Since I have all the data now, maybe I'll try to run some more "standard" ratings systems against the D-II football data to see how they look.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I would be interested in seeing what kind of results you get with the ratings systems.

[jimdahl]

I would be interested in seeing what kind of results you get with the ratings systems.

Well, there goes any productivity this week. I had pretty much already decided to look into it tomorrow.

The insular schedule problem isn't going away, that's why Massey uses margin-of-victory and BCS uses all those polls. However, I expect the opponents-opponents win% in RPI will do a little more than anything SSI does, and I expect Bradley-Terry to do better still at sorting out the strengths of the conferences.

The other big question is how to handle out-of-division games. The SSI system treatment of out-of-division opponents is also pretty arbitrary; I would prefer to either consider games only against other opponents being ranked (Divisional opponents who have a known strength) or calculate a ranking for all NCAA teams (ala Massey) so your rankings of non-Divisional opponents' strengths aren't arbitrary.

Sorry, everyone, for straying so far afield. You may now resume regularly schedule regional ranking griping.

[siouxmenow21]

Can someone explain to me why we are regionally ranked at six but won our game against UMD and St. Cloud, Northwood, Winona, and Michigan Tech are ahead of us? I mean St. Cloud lost as well as Northwood but they are still ranked higher than us. is the system all screwed up or what???

[Bisonfan1234]

You've lost to a good team and beat a bunch of crappy teams.

Right now you'd still get into the playoffs. No big deal.

[Corella]

You've lost to a good team and beat a bunch of crappy teams.

Right now you'd still get into the playoffs. No big deal.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Even though there are the big arguments against the polls deciding things, wouldn't some sort of human rankings element be good in computing the regional rankings instead of going purely on the SSI?? There aren't many humans out there in the know when it comes to D2 football who wouldn't include UND in the top 5 in the country, and yet the Sioux are 6th in the region?? Wouldn't some sort of human element in there be benificial? That could also help drop undeserving teams, like the one that Grand Valley went to to open the playoffs last year, back to a level where peopleknow where they belong. It makes a lot of sense to me.

[bisonguy]

Corella,

It doesn't appear the teams are ranked purely by the SSI. Going by the Siouxsports SSI calculations, here's the Northwest Region rankings with the SSI number in parentheses after each team:

1)Michigan Tech (2)

2)SCSU (3)

3)Northwood (1)

4)GVSU (5)

5)Winona (4)

6)UND (6)

7)UNO (8)

8)SVSU (9)

9)Ferris (7)

10)USD (13)

Looks like something else is a factor besides the SSI this year.

[Corella]

Corella,

It doesn't appear the teams are ranked purely by the SSI. Going by the Siouxsports SSI calculations, here's the Northwest Region rankings with the SSI number in parentheses after each team:

1)Michigan Tech (2)

2)SCSU (3)

3)Northwood (1)

4)GVSU (5)

5)Winona (4)

6)UND (6)

7)UNO (8)

8)SVSU (9)

9)Ferris (7)

10)USD (13)

Looks like something else is a factor besides the SSI this year. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Jim mentioned that there is something he cannot figure out going on with the rankings also, but some national polls had not yet been released at the time the poll came out, that leads me to believe that the top 25 is not factored in. There is only one thing that I can really figure out, the hows and the whys of this poll are not making sense to me (and apparently plenty of others).

[bigmrg74]

Well, there is 3 more games to get things straiten out. Its the poll at the end of the regular season that we have to sit around worring, having kittens over about it.

[legend334]

by the way SSI is looking I think that is a fair assumption that we should play all the NSIC teams we can play...BSU, Northern, Concordia St. Paul, this would be easier to travel to and help our regional and SSI by the way it looks now...Delta St. has to win out and Ferris needs at least one if not two more wins to help UND with its SSI....at least by playing those closer teams UND will not have to pay out a big gurantee like we did this year...

[Bulldog]

I actually am worried. I spent a little time running through all of the different scenarios and I think the chances are very good that UND could finish 9-1 and finish no higher than 3rd or 4th in the region. Ferris State needs to win 2 of its last 3 games to finish over .700. The chances of that happening are very slim as each of Ferris' final three opponents will be favored over them.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I can guarantee you Ferris will win at least two of the final 3 games because they are home against Tech (FSU has won 7 of last 10) and SVSU (lost to Mercyworst). Northwood is also very beatable at thier place because they will be coming off two straight losses when Ferris plays them (plus they aren't that good). Ferris plays well at home as you saw against Findlay. Another thing to remember Ferris usually fares very well against all three of these three teams. It is very possible Ferris finishes at 9-1 conference.

[UND92,96]

I can guarantee you Ferris will win at least two of the final 3 games because they are home against Tech (FSU has won 7 of last 10) and SVSU (lost to Mercyworst). Northwood is also very beatable at thier place because they will be coming off two straight losses when Ferris plays them (plus they aren't that good). Ferris plays well at home as you saw against Findlay. Another thing to remember Ferris usually fares very well against all three of these three teams. It is very possible Ferris finishes at 9-1 conference.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm sure you'll be happy to know that we're all Ferris fans now!

[Bulldog]

I'm sure you'll be happy to know that we're all Ferris fans now!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I bet you are.

[SiouxFan4Life]

UND is looking a lot like Ocklahoma in the polls...But oh well..Fellas, do what fans do and speculate and work every angle, but know, we still have big wins coming over SD, and NO...Were in the driver seat.....Just start getting ready for the tin can to get rockin for the playoffs