stoneySIOUX

@Oxbow6#ferda said it best.... we get .900 save percentage this weekend, we should feel good. Western can score, but they give up a lot, too. Get right series in a hostile environment? Let's go. UND wins tonight - 5-2 Gaber x2, Juddy, Kleven, Matteo

See, that's where you are presuming. No one is saying these analytics mean anything other than that it's unfortunate we're in that position. It's saying that if UND wasn't the outlier, we'd be in a much better position. They are the outlier, so we're in a poor position. It's really all it is. Day-in-and-day-out in sports there are stories like "coulda, woulda, shoulda" and no one bats an eye. So, when stuff like this is presented, instead of insulting it, understand the reasoning for it. Call it an excuse if you want, but these are real numbers. All good, man. I get you don't dig xG. It's fine. Let's move on.

So, do we go back to grindaz?!?!

I mean, you tell me lol. You're one so apparently afraid that there could be REAL statistics

That's my frustration, too. I was referring to the idea of people getting mad about xG and analytics being used to explain what's going on. It's an odd boogeyman that people don't like, for some reason.

What is it that people aren't getting about xG? It's expected... doesn't mean it's happened. It hasn't, therefore we've lost. It's not a justification, it's a statement of fact. I've said it a few times on here, arguing with analytics and statistics is just plain stupid. It's not hard to see the piece as "these are the numbers, this sucks, and it is what it is" ... It's almost like some are saying, nope, I'm NOT gonna look for hope. No upside. No positive things. I refuse to think this team could possibly be good in the future this season. Very odd.

It wouldn't be me being right, it'd be the team avoiding dangerous turnovers, getting better goaltending, and potting good chances. I'm hopeful lol.

Huh? I was referring to the two examples you listed, which end only being one. Anyway, to your point on how it "fits" with this team, frankly, it doesn't. That's why we've been an outlier. These statistics suggest a positive regression to the mean, based on all of the solid prediction its done throughout the NCHC, and more wins. Will that play out? Who knows? I'll make it very clear for you... I'm not saying this will happen. But, these stats aren't just some puff of smoke and magic. It's been right overwhelmingly more than it's been wrong this season within college hockey. That gives me hope. Until it's achieved on the ice, it doesn't matter. Idk why anyone is against non-biased statistics. Doesn't make sense.

Close. He's gotten this expanded... UND's expected goals against this season: 49.71. It has allowed 58. That means the goaltenders have allowed 8.3 more goals than expected — which is the most in the NCHC. Western Michigan is second at 5.8. Denver is third at 0.65. They're (the goalies) not seeing many shots. UND ranks sixth in the nation — tied with top-ranked Denver — in fewest shots on goal allowed per game (24.5). Yet despite the low shot totals, xG still predicts UND should be way down at 39th nationally in goals against (2.92). That wide disparity between shots allowed and expected goals-against tells the story that UND may not give up many shots, but when it does, they're quite often high danger ones.

Arguing statistics that are not at all biased is silly, but even so, that's one of the 17 games! So, even by your measure, if the xG was only wrong once, it was correct 90+% of the time.

I'm not sure why you'd be so against this, but no, it did not... Here's the stunning part for UND — based on xG, the computer model thinks the Fighting Hawks should be 13-4 right now. It projected both games against Minnesota, one against Arizona State and one against Denver as the losses. In the other 13 games, the statistic shows UND has generated more quality chances than its opponents.

Looking at their academic calendar, they have finals next week, so they are liking going hard this weekend lol.

Hey man, that's fair. I'm not there mentally yet, but yes, if we keep having bad seasons, I see where you're going with that.

Lololol you have an INCREDIBLY loose definition of dumpster fire. The lack of timing and perspective on this post is mind-blowing to me. Also, it's also not spin. I said nothing but factual statements. I'll give you an out... Did you honestly mean the program is a dumpster fire? This season, I can absolutely see... The program? Honestly?

Yeah, I feel ya man. I just don't know what it is. Such a weird season. I think the players deserve much of the "blame"... turnovers have been the biggest problem for this team, IMO and to me that's clearly on their shoulders. Looking gassed can certainly come from chasing the game and not playing confident, too. I feel like a turnaround is going to come from leaning on program successes and belief in the talent to execute. That is on Bubs to drive into them, but also on the players to actually do it.

Do I honestly have to explain this? Honestly?? Goodness. - I don't feel good about it and I never said I was, nor suggested it. It's frustrating that we have been statistically performing very well in areas where most games lead to wins and not winning. Wins matter most and it's not close. Stop putting words in my mouth. That's annoying. - Stats and analytics are not without outliers. UND is an outlier right now. - Ignoring analytics and statistics is just stupid. Like I said, look at the leaders in xG and you'll see the leaders in PWR with very few exceptions. - With these stats, there's an assumed adjustment to the mean. That could mean we win more games and could also mean we bottom out. Anything else?

Yeah, this is pretty much exactly what I'm referring to when I say our fanbase is overreacting to everything. Great example! #FerDa

What is it that you believe is causing the team to fall apart in the third? Things like confidence, mental toughness, etc., I don't think are on Bubs. The old school mentality of being a "tough coach" just isn't a part of college sport now. There are essentially no coaches out there that coach by fear. Right or not, I think if Berry is going, we're not going to see an old type of coach at UND because players don't really feel like get screamed at at all hours of practices and games anymore.

He's definitely sat players for playing poorly this year. Tough to do it much on the blue line with injuries and inconsistent play. Is this training issue you see a new thing? I've never heard of a UND being out of shape. I think they're gassed because we've been playing from behind and expending all energy to try and even a game. Not a training thing, IMO, but a circumstance of our performance.

Such as?

Been happening ALL year. This team is in its own head, IMO. Mental mistakes and panic.

THIS is smart. This comes from a lack of confidence in the bottom pairs of d-men. Guys like Cooper Moore, Johnson, and Bast need to get back to their best games ASAP for UND to turn it around.

Plus/minus is a team stat in that it's hard to lay it on the individual player. Again, I just don't see a player on this team that has genuinely gotten worse. Some are certainly not playing up to a previous level, but that doesn't mean that will finish the season that way. Laying it back on the coaching staff, are we (not necessarily you) suggesting Berry is the reason for this? Could it, heaven forbid, that we play a really good schedule and we're not getting a bounce or two a game? (UNACCEPTABLE, I know lol) I just don't see anything to indicate a guy like Frisch or Kleven have gotten worse as players.

I find that interesting, because I've heard that they are plenty close, but there a few that do their own thing. My whole point of what I said is that speaking in absolutes like things are already done is silly. Let the season play out!

That's a bingo. It does NOTHING positive for the team or program.