You broke it down nicely! Definitely a good argument for Fersch there.
UND was picked to finish #3 in the preseason poll, rather than #2 (almost tied though with #2, as you mention).
5th year players...you're missing Washe for WMU, although he has since been kicked off the team, he was a big returnee at the beginning of the season. When it was announced that Attard, Frank, Passolt, and Washe were returning that should have bolstered WMU's ranking in the eyes of NCHC and USCHO preseason pollsters, but they were under-ranked IMO. WMU kept their talented group together, while UND had to hit the transfer portal in order to replenish their losses.