Indeed, its a poker game.
Your city could have a unemployment rate of 10%, doesnt mean a new factory will build in your city without tax incentives.
These programs across the country in similar sized towns get approved about 70 to 90% of the time.
If your city only has one, two, three (We all just lost Epic) major developers building in your city, are you going to take a risk losing them? When the nearby town will gladly approve that major project that will take the bulk of their capital, planning, and time for the next three to five years?