The Sicatoka

I still believe there won't be a big shift. The PAC4 will quietly find homes and things will pause until either FSU breaks the ACC GOR or 2026 (playoff/media deal). As far as your list, who has all their ducks all in a row right now should the phone ring.

Should the MWC "dissolve" but only part have a soft landing spot, the remainder will wonder how that happened. Collusion? Litigation? Like I said elsewhere, should MWC dissolution come to vote I'd rather be SDSU, CSU, USAFA than Wyo, UNM, USU, in the aftermath.

"Competitive Parity" was cause. Flimsy, but allowed by their by-laws. https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/26801838/st-thomas-wins-too-much-kicked-miac

Ejecting a conference member normally requires cause.

Washington has a few new growing pains to figure out before biting on a puck.

Whatever rises from the ashes of the PAC will not be a "P" conference, even a merged broke PAC-Mountain group. Welcome to "P4" ... or maybe P2 and M2 (middling, meaning BXII and ACC).

Why? They'd be a 12. That's a very workable number.

That Bucci/B1G list ... their general travel budgets all just expanded.

The PAC was an autonomy conference not because of "PAC" but USC/UW/UCLA/UO/UA/ASU/CU/UU. Without those the "autonomy" status will be stripped at the next major rules meeting. It has to -- there's money involved meaning more for the remaining four. ... the Power Five conferences are identified individually under NCAA rules as "autonomy conferences," which grants them some independence from standard NCAA rules to provide additional resources for the benefit of student-athletes. Reality: As of Saturday morning it's now P4 and four autonomy conferences. They just have to vote and update the rule book.

Your mistake is expecting a logical reason.

In that group Oregon is not that impressive, ($139M in research spending? Look who is immediately ahead of them at $143.5M), but I bet the B1G gets a great Nike deal very soon.

My most likely outcome: - someone (ACC, Ivy) throws CaliStan a bone; I don't see it being the B1G as they are likely waiting to see if FSU can break the ACC GOR. There would be some nice prizes there (UNC, UVa, FSU). - The PAC xSUs to the MWC to make 12.

Should the PAC try inviting part of the MWC that should be a big warning signal to Wyo and UNM. They will be odd-man out. The MWC by-laws say it's only majority vote to change by-laws or fold the conference. If the PAC4 wink-nudged (not tampered, oh no) ... USAFA, SDSU, CSU, SJSU, UNR, Hawaii ... that group of six could change the MWC to no exit fee and close the shop. Boise, Wyo, UNM, UNLR would be swinging in the wind. However, if the PAC4 pulled that move I think they'd swallow hard and take UNLV (for UNR) and also invite Gonzaga.

My take on the MWC: They played it right, even SDSU in the end. They held pat and the world will be coming to them. They have the only media deal in the west today. Their best option is to stay together and invite schools and buy the name asset of a defunct conference. But who'll join the MWC. Frankly, I don't see CaliStan associating with Boise State and Wyo and UNM. Adding just the PAC xSUs makes 12 and the MWC would be very stable.

Will Stanford stay virtually attached to Cal? Cal has a fiscal mess right now and their support of athletics has been lackluster recently. I think Stanford could survive as a FB indy with the rest in the WCC. Cal not so much. If the B1G offers CaliStan, it'll be less than UW/UO ($30M). That's just over the PAC Apple deal that was rejected July 31 that started everything on Aug 4; it barely pays Cal's $18M annual FB stadium debt payment.

I see six(!) AAC members at $18M buy-out per plus UB (MAC buy-out) and Navy. Your new consortium is starting off with over $100M in owed dollars to AAC/MAC before they hold an organizational meeting. And the "OG" bringing them in have no media deal and no money. Fail.

The PAC right now: - four teams that are about as disparate in the conference as could be: CaliStan and the xSUs. - no media deal to offer to potential new members - $50M in debt to Comcast (because of billing mistake) - $24.2M in assets (per 2021 IRS Form 990) - whatever NCAAT credits they have A conference is just a non-profit corporation. It runs like any other non-profit business. It incorporates, it operates under by-laws, it can bankrupt, it can close. And it files a Form 990 if it doesn't want the IRS to come look for itself.

The CSU Rams and SDSU Aztecs would like a word with you.

Hlinka bronze game on NHL Network now. USA 4 FIN2 early third. Heil in USA net. Rink is fog bank.

Sun doesn't shine in Schenectady.

I agree the GOR seems as written nearly unbreakable. But FSU made noise this week that they were "misled" with questionable information to get them to sign it. Not sure if that could be a fracture line in the contract. And others are claiming an ACC media deal that expires in 2026 or 2027 could be used to break the conference and the GOR. All sound wonderful, but until that GOR is broken it's pretty iron clad.

I've bought from Nelson in Fergus Falls. I would again.

He's not wrong. The "academic mullahs" of Cali-Stan would rather athletics be "Ivy" level at most. And WasSU and OrSU? Do a hard evaluation of each without the PAC aura and luster. WasSU is not even the best DI academic school in a ten-mile radius from its own campus! Yes, Idaho has better academics.

I'm going to channel my inner "Sioux Volley" (I do miss you man, RIP). Sorry for the "lecture tone". Do NOT think like sports fans and throw together a bunch of schools that would be cool together. Think strategic partnerships. Think business and dollars. Do you bring what you take, or more. And think like a university president (which unfortunately often negates the first two). The PAC12 (a week ago) was only worth $20M per share. That was with UW/UO/UA/ASU/CU/UU/Cal/Stan!

Who's paying exit fees ($34M for MWC!; $18M for AAC) to go to a conference with $7M per share (MWC) or NO (PAC) media deal.