Pairwise

[jk]

I'm not a PWR expert, but I looked into it a bit tonight. I don't think MSUM's win over Wisconsin was posted when I looked so that might skew things a bit. When I looked, this is where some teams were:

8. BC

9. Michigan

10. UND

MSUM

12. OSU

13. SCSU

Michigan State (MSU)

15. Harvard

16. Providence

17. Denver

The NCAA tourney field is fourteen teams deep, after the CHA and MAAC bids. The way I understand the selection process for bubble teams, the NCAA looks at the direct PWR comparisons of the teams on the bubble when they figure out who gets the last few spots. Following are UND's comparisons right now. One absolutely key feature that I don't know is how sensitive RPI is to results this late in the year. If it's no longer very sensitive, then I have a pretty good idea what will happen to certain comparisons. If it is, then a lot of what follows isn't very useful.

BC - BC wins 3-0, with no chance of UND flipping it.

Mi. - UND wins 2-2 with RPI breaking the tie, but the RPI is very close. If it flips to MI, then MI will win the comparison.

MSUM - MSUM wins 3-2. If the Sioux were to meet MSUM and win, that would flip it to the Sioux.

OSU - UND wins 2-1, and it's probably not going to change.

SCSU - UND wins 4-2, and it's probably not going to change.

MSU - UND wins 2-1, and it's probably not going to change.

Harv. - UND wins 3-0, and it's probably not going to change.

Prov. - Prov. wins 2-1. If UND beats SCSU, they flip this one and win it.

Denver - UND wins 4-2, and it's probably not going to change.

If the Sioux lose to Denver, they probably lose the Michigan comparison. The key feature that I'm not sure of, as I mentioned, is the RPI. I believe that in all of those close comparisons, UND has a higher RPI. If a Sioux loss really drops their RPI, and good performance by their competitors really strengthens their's, then those "probably not going to change" comparisons might.

I am a big Cornell fan. We need to keep the field 14 teams deep. If Cornell loses in the ECAC playoffs, there are only 13 spots. Hockey East is decided, with UNH winning. I am a big fan of Ferris State, then Michigan (even though we are in a tight comparison with them). I really want to see OSU and MSU lose, as they are close pursuers.

Obviously most important of all is for the Sioux to win. A win over Denver followed by a win over SCSU locks up a bid, I think. Losing to Denver makes it just a matter of fate and faith.

[sprig]

Even if the Sioux get in after losing to Denver, it wouldn't seem like they should be in. I'd feel a lot better about the NCAA's if the Sioux make it to the final five, and win at least the Thursday game there. Would be nice to give CC a battle on Friday, but could hardly expect a win.

[sagard]

I think the Sioux were playing for the entrance to the NCAA's last night. Had they lost, they would have lost the DU comparison and been a lot more vulnerable in others. Now they have a lock on DU (win or lose today) and are in much better position.

[sprig]

I think the Sioux were playing for the entrance to the NCAA's last night. Had they lost, they would have lost the DU comparison and been a lot more vulnerable in others. Now they have a lock on DU (win or lose today) and are in much better position.

Probably true, but losing tonight is not the way to enter the NCAA's.

[U2Bad1]

Looks like UND is back down to 11 in the pWR. Here is a good question, if UND wins tonight could a third playoff game help UND vault over Michigan and MSU-M?

[sprig]

Looks like UND is back down to 11 in the pWR. Here is a good question, if UND wins tonight could a third playoff game help UND vault over Michigan and MSU-M?

Over Michigan, probably. But passing MSU-M will probably take a final five win coupled with a Mankato loss to the Gophers. The RPI comparisons apparently make the difference, and they will change with each game the teams' in question play next week (and tonight).

Denver's loss last night has all but eliminated them from NCAA contention, unless they win tonight and win some final five games as well.

[Siouxrock]

If the sioux win tonite, who do u think they will play in the first round?

[PCM]

If the sioux win tonite, who do u think they will play in the first round?

I boldly predict that it will either UM-Duluth or St. Cloud.

[Siouxrock]

who would be the best opponent for them to play?

[PCM]

who would be the best opponent for them to play?

Hard to say. Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing the Sioux get another shot at Duluth. Maybe SCSU would be a little easier because the Sioux have beat them three of four times this season.

If UND can beat Denver tonight, especially if they do it convincingly, I like their chances against either Duluth or St. Cloud.

[Siouxrock]

if the sioux win tonite, i think there in teh ncaa tournament

[Goon]

if the sioux win tonite, i think there in teh ncaa tournament

The Sioux are now sitting at 9th in the PWR ranking I think that is huge, they should be in the NCAA tourney.

I just want to be able to see UND make a good showing in the final five. If we can beat UMD we get C.C. again.

[MavsFan]

Yep, since you guys beat a TUC, you vaulted past MSU, who once again dropped after sweeping a non-TUC (the last time was Anchorage.)

Congratulations. I am not a stat geek, so I don't know how much the numbers would shuffle if you lost the play-in to UMD, but I suspect you are in the NCAA.

It would take some astonishing circumstances for NoDak and the Mavs to meet again before the NCAAs (since the only way it could happen would be the WCHA championship game) but maybe we'll meet up there.

[sagard]

It would take some astonishing circumstances for NoDak and the Mavs to meet again before the NCAAs (since the only way it could happen would be the WCHA championship game) but maybe we'll meet up there.

Astonishing? I think it is very, very likely. In the 3rd place game.

[sprig]

Astonishing? I think it is very, very likely. In the 3rd place game.

Thanks, sagard, had forgotten about a third place game (and now am looking for seeing the Sioux twice on FOXN). I'd expect Mankato to be there, as well as the Sioux, if they can get by Duluth (they better). Seems that lots of uscho Kato fans are counting on a win vs. the Gophs. Highly unlikely as far as I'm concerned.

As much as I'd like the Sioux to make the championship game, it will be tough playing CC to get there (again, having to beat Duluth first).

It would be nice, anyway, to beat both Duluth and Mankato, since they both helped knock the Sioux out of the top three (although beating Duluth, CC and MN would be even better).

From a pairwise perspective, getting Denver was the best possible scenario for the Sioux (actually SCSU would have been fine also). Although Wisco would have been a weaker opponent (even though Mankato struggled against them, totally unexpected as bad as Wisco looked the week before against the Sioux), Denver bumps up the Sioux significantly in the pairwise, and playing them 3 times was better than 2. Since Kato was so near the bubble going into the weekend, getting Wisco was not a good deal for them, although had they got Denver, or even SCSU, they may have lost. Of course, Kato's final five games will help solidify their spot in the NCAA's, win or lose (as it will for the Sioux).

In addition, the third place game is also on TV, so there is still a possiblility of seeing the Sioux twice this week (bummer that the CC semifinal game is not on ); I think the WCHA screwed up by not getting that one on FOXN. Can't imagine there are any other commitments (Timberwolves, Wild) on Friday afternoon. At any rate, I look forward to watching the CC/MN matchup in the championship (if the Sioux can't get there).

I have a bit more confidence in the Sioux given their level of play this weekend against Denver, especially the play of Brandt. If he performs like that in the final five, the Sioux will be tough competition. There's little doubt that the Sioux would have come out better against both Duluth and Mankota had their netminding been equal to their opponents' in those series

[kiork]

sprig, I disagree about playing Denver three times being better than two. The third game does help the Opponents' Winning Percentage portion of RPI, but the damage done to our winning percentage hurts more. The RPI would be about 0.0030 points higher had the Sioux won in two. The extra loss also makes a difference in COp and TUC.

jk, you want RPI? I've got your RPI right here, pal. I'm not a PWR expert, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express recently.

Updated Pairwise Rankings

5. Maine

5. Ferris St.

7. Minnesota

8. BC

9. University of North Dakota

9. Michigan

11. MSU-M

12. Ohio St.

13. Harvard

14. Mich. St.

15. SCSU

15. Providence

As you all know, because the CHA and MAAC champions will not be in the top 16, only the top 14 in the PWR can advance. If the ECAC, CCHA and/or WCHA are won by teams not in the top 14, #14 and possibly #13 and #12 are left out, too. UNH already won the HE tournament. Potential spoilers include CCHA: Northern Mich, Notre Dame; WCHA: Duluth; ECAC: Brown, Dartmouth

How does UND stand against the bubble contenders? First, let's look at the RPI, the most powerful part of the PWR. Because it is the tiebreaker in PWR comparisons, if you win RPI, you almost always win the PWR comparison. These are my estimates of UND's RPI after the Final Five. The last column includes our Final Five record and who the opponents were (scenarios such as "beat CC and lose to UM" result in the same RPI as "lose to CC and beat UM").

UND

WinPer OPer RPI Final 5 Results

0.6951 0.5183 0.5637 (Today)

0.6786 0.5197 0.5602 0-1 UMD

0.6705 0.5293 0.5630 1-2 UMD, CC, MSU

0.6705 0.5298 0.5632 1-2 UMD, CC, UM

0.6932 0.5293 0.5687 2-1 UMD, CC, MSU

0.6932 0.5298 0.5689 2-1 UMD, CC, UM

0.7159 0.5293 0.5744 3-0 UMD, CC, MSU

0.7159 0.5298 0.5746 3-0 UMD, CC, UM

When inserting these numbers into today's RPI rankings, the Sioux could rise one spot to 8th (earning a #2 seed) or fall only as far as 10th. If MSU-M, Ohio St. or Harvard have great tournaments, their RPI could overtake a weak performance by the Sioux. Here are some estimates of RPI:

CC

0.5931 Today's RPI

0.5870 0-2 UND, MSU

Minnesota

0.5840 Today's RPI

0.5920 2-0 MSU, CC

0.5859 1-1 MSU, CC

0.5785 0-2 MSU, UND

MSU-M

0.5596 Today's RPI

0.5692 2-0 UM, CC

0.5630 1-1 UM, CC

0.5569 0-2 UM, UND

Ohio St.

0.5528 Today's RPI

0.5643 3-0 NotreDame, Mich, Ferris

0.5584 2-1 NotreDame, Mich, Ferris

Harvard

0.5543 Today's RPI

0.5656 2-0 Dartmouth, Cornell

0.5581 1-1 Dartmouth, Cornell

Today's PWR comparison summary

-Minn: A 0-2 Gopher weekend and 2-1 Sioux record with a head-to-head Sioux victory over the Gophs isn't enough for RPI but is just enough to steal the PWR comparison with TUC, COp and H2H.

-BC cannot be caught by UND

-Michigan can only be held off through RPI, and they are just .0031 behind right now. I haven't done the numbers, but a 2-1 Sioux weekend probably won't be enough if Michigan goes 2-0.

-MSU-M: If the Sioux meet MSU-M, the winner will likely end up on top in PWR, too. If not, you can determine the winner with the RPI tables above.

-Ohio St. could give UND a run if they can beat Notre Dame and Michigan.

-Harvard also has the opportunity to move up UND doesn't perform

-Michigan St. could have an outside chance--I haven't bothered with the numbers.

-Providence gets a footnote because they currently steal the comparison from UND. A victory over Mankato or a 2-1 performance (to win TUC) will get that comparison point back.

Sorry if I used too much PWR terminology. Feel free to write me with questions or go to USCHO and study. I will be out of the country from March 20-31.

The bottom line is that there isn't too much room to go up, but a lot of teams are at the heels of the Sioux. All of these statistical exercises are fun and all... but just win the games. Just win the games.

[MavsFan]

  Thanks, sagard, had forgotten about a third place game (and now am looking for seeing the Sioux twice on FOXN). I'd expect Mankato to be there, as well as the Sioux, if they can get by Duluth (they better). Seems that lots of uscho Kato fans are counting on a win vs. the Gophs. Highly unlikely as far as I'm concerned.

I was also not thinking about the third-place game. That is certainly a possibility.

Of course Mankato fans are counting on beating the Gophers. What kind of fans would we be if we went around saying "oh, well, we're doomed, why even try."

The Mavs are 1-1-2 against the Gophers this year. The Gophers are clearly more talented top-to-bottom, but the Mavs #1 line is as good as anybody's, the young kids are playing much better now, and nobody works harder. I'm just sorry DeMarchi won't be there to pull bonehead stunt after bonehead stunt to put the Mavs powerplay on the ice.

[sagard]

[sprig]

sprig, I disagree about playing Denver three times being better than two.

[Shawn-O]

Here's a new Pairwise play toy, brought to you by USCHO. It's entitled "You Are the Committee". It even allows us to speculate on the mysterious "quality win" weighting. Combine this with Jim Dahl's WCHA What-If tool, and we might have a Nobel Prize winner.

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/yatc.php

[jk]

Kiork, you appear to be the resident expert here, so I'll defer to your analysis. Until then, I've been playing with the "you are the committee" page at USCHO to check on the Sioux's tournament status. I'm a pessimist, but UND's inclusion in the tourney doesn't seem to be a certainty to me.

To start with, UND obviously needs the favorites to win the conference tournaments. Duluth, Northern Michigan or Dartmouth winning their respective tournaments would be a disaster.

In most of the realistic scenarios I run, UND ends up either 12 or 13 in the PWR. In a 14-team field, that's the bubble. To choose the final teams, I'm guessing they would take 13 through 16 or 17 and run a mini-PWR. That's scary. If it ends up being a 13-team field (or less) due to upsets, it's even scarier.

Despite my pessimism, I would guess right now that UND will make the field. Considering that some teams (especially SCSU) hold out hope to make the tournament from a worse position than UND, the chances look pretty good.

If UND does get in, I have a few thoughts:

- UND would be a beneficiary of the expanded tounament, as they probably would not make a 12-team tournament.

- UND would also benefit from the removal this year of the "last 16" PWR component, which UND would lose against most teams.

- UND would probably be better off having lost to UMD and resting than going into the NCAA tourney exhausted. I'm guessing their legs would have been shot after playing six games in nine days. Losing to UMD is a dicey thing though, as it may cost them a spot in the tourney at all.

kiork, sagard: any thoughts?

[sprig]

- UND would probably be better off having lost to UMD and resting than going into the NCAA tourney exhausted.  I'm guessing their legs would have been shot after playing six games in nine days.  Losing to UMD is a dicey thing though, as it may cost them a spot in the tourney at all.

During the TV broadcast, Wooger referred to writers saying that the Sioux may be better off losing to MDU (from a PWR standpoint). Beating them, then losing to CC and the third place game, could have placed them in a poorer position.

Of course, could have always won this afternoon, or in the third place game Little doubt that Sioux fans need to be against Duluth. Not hard for me, since I like CC anyway.

[jk]

Woog and the writers were wrong from a PWR perspective, as kiork notes above. UND would definitely have been better off from a tournament qualification perpsective going 1-2 than 0-1. But, now they're 0-1, so they can rest and hope that things break their way over the next two days.

[The Sicatoka]

Simple things at this point:

- cheer for those ahead of UND in the PWR to win (it's tough to catch people in PWR unless you win)

Closer to home, I'd actually like to see Minnesota beat MSU-Mankato and then have MSU-Mankato lose to UMD in the third place game (on short rest, assuming CC beats UMD). Look at the PWR. That would maybe set MSU-M below UND (rather than a tie).

[Siouxrock]

woog didnt want his gophers to get beat by the sioux in the third place game