jk Posted March 16, 2003 Share Posted March 16, 2003 I'm not a PWR expert, but I looked into it a bit tonight. I don't think MSUM's win over Wisconsin was posted when I looked so that might skew things a bit. When I looked, this is where some teams were: 8. BC 9. Michigan 10. UND MSUM 12. OSU 13. SCSU Michigan State (MSU) 15. Harvard 16. Providence 17. Denver The NCAA tourney field is fourteen teams deep, after the CHA and MAAC bids. The way I understand the selection process for bubble teams, the NCAA looks at the direct PWR comparisons of the teams on the bubble when they figure out who gets the last few spots. Following are UND's comparisons right now. One absolutely key feature that I don't know is how sensitive RPI is to results this late in the year. If it's no longer very sensitive, then I have a pretty good idea what will happen to certain comparisons. If it is, then a lot of what follows isn't very useful. BC - BC wins 3-0, with no chance of UND flipping it. Mi. - UND wins 2-2 with RPI breaking the tie, but the RPI is very close. If it flips to MI, then MI will win the comparison. MSUM - MSUM wins 3-2. If the Sioux were to meet MSUM and win, that would flip it to the Sioux. OSU - UND wins 2-1, and it's probably not going to change. SCSU - UND wins 4-2, and it's probably not going to change. MSU - UND wins 2-1, and it's probably not going to change. Harv. - UND wins 3-0, and it's probably not going to change. Prov. - Prov. wins 2-1. If UND beats SCSU, they flip this one and win it. Denver - UND wins 4-2, and it's probably not going to change. If the Sioux lose to Denver, they probably lose the Michigan comparison. The key feature that I'm not sure of, as I mentioned, is the RPI. I believe that in all of those close comparisons, UND has a higher RPI. If a Sioux loss really drops their RPI, and good performance by their competitors really strengthens their's, then those "probably not going to change" comparisons might. I am a big Cornell fan. We need to keep the field 14 teams deep. If Cornell loses in the ECAC playoffs, there are only 13 spots. Hockey East is decided, with UNH winning. I am a big fan of Ferris State, then Michigan (even though we are in a tight comparison with them). I really want to see OSU and MSU lose, as they are close pursuers. Obviously most important of all is for the Sioux to win. A win over Denver followed by a win over SCSU locks up a bid, I think. Losing to Denver makes it just a matter of fate and faith. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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