jk Posted March 22, 2003 Author Share Posted March 22, 2003 This was one of UND's best nights of hockey in the second half. Every game (I believe) went UND's way tonight. The WCHA is down to CC and MN, so no upset winner there. The ECAC is Harvard and Cornell, which is fine. The CCHA is Ferris and Michigan, also fine. So I now view it as a 14-team field, after the MAAC and CHA bids. Here's what I think about tomorrow's games: We want: NMU over OSU Michigan over Ferris Brown over Dartmouth Cornell over Harvard UMD over MSUM The two crucial games are Cornell/Harvard and UMD/MSUM. If all five games go against us, I think UND sits at PWR 13, good enough to get in. If the only one that goes our way is Cornell, UND is PWR 12. If the only one that goes our way is UMD, UND is PWR 12. If Cornell wins, UND's PWR range is 10-12. If UMD wins, UND's PWR range is 10-12. If Cornell loses, UND's PWR range is 12-13. If UMD loses, UND's PWR range is 11-13. The only way I think UND could get left out of the tourney is if, assuming everything went wrong for UND tomorrow, they somehow included UND (PWR 13) in a bubble comparison with SCSU and Providence (tied for PWR 14) and chose those two instead of UND. UND loses the comparison with Providence but wins it with SCSU. SCSU wins the Providence comparison. It seems that the field (not the seeding) is nearly set, with either SCSU or Providence being the odd-man out. I did bump into one scenario where MSUM ended up at PWR 14, which would be a precarious position for them. I don't remember exactly what it was, but I assume it would involve a loss to UMD plus a few other things. So I think the Sioux get to dance. As dagies said, UND can beat any team in the nation, and can lose to any team in the nation. They haven't strung together four wins in a while, but why not now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MavsFan Posted March 22, 2003 Share Posted March 22, 2003 This whole pairwise thing give me a headache. It appears that you guys are safely ahead of MSU,M now, being #10 in the PWR, while the Mavs have dropped to #13 with the loss to the Gophers tonight. If the Mavs lose to UMD tomorrow, I'll really lose faith in the formula behind the PWR if SCSU ends up ahead of the Mavs. I guess it is highly unlikely that the Mavs will drop behind Providence so they should still get in the dance, but no way should SCSU be higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn-O Posted March 22, 2003 Share Posted March 22, 2003 The only way I think UND could get left out of the tourney is if, assuming everything went wrong for UND tomorrow, they somehow included UND (PWR 13) in a bubble comparison with SCSU and Providence (tied for PWR 14) and chose those two instead of UND. UND loses the comparison with Providence but wins it with SCSU. SCSU wins the Providence comparison. UND should be in good shape under this scenario. In a head-to head "ro-sham-bo" situation, RPI will be used to break the tie. UND's RPI is ahead of both Providence and SCSU in the scenarios I ran. Also, the weighting of "quality wins" is an X factor. The neutral-site win over Michigan in October might end up being the difference between a #3 and #4 seed. MavsFan, I agree 100%. If SCSU went to the tournament at MSU-M's expense, the whole damn thing should be blown up, and something more subjective like the NCAA hoops selection method should be implemented. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siouxrock Posted March 22, 2003 Share Posted March 22, 2003 UND will make it. just will prolly be a 4 seed and will have to beat a #1 seed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLW4GOPHERS Posted March 22, 2003 Share Posted March 22, 2003 UND will make it. just will prolly be a 4 seed and will have to beat a #1 seed You mean if your a 2 or 3 seed, you get to go directly to the frozen four and don't have to play a #1 seed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siouxrock Posted March 22, 2003 Share Posted March 22, 2003 i said we will beat the #1 seed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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