PWR Analysis Thread

[siouxnami]

In Short, highly unlikely...

First, if we win tonight, MSU drops from the top 25 RPI, and we lose 4 TUC wins, the only thing worse would be is we lost... After the series Go MSU Fighting Goons...

It is VERY unlikely that we can flip the New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, or Notre Dame comparisons. Even if we play and beat Minnesota again.

We are currently losing but have a good chance to the DU and SCCC comparisons, if and only if we can sweep or take 3 of 4 points on the road.

We are currently winning and could lose comparisons to BC (TUC), Clarkson (COP), Michigan (RPI).

This means we can reasonably expect a PWR ranking between 15 and 20, which is highly unlikely to be a #1 seed. We will most likely be a #2 or possibly a #3 seed.

This is good news since barring a monumental collapse, we have played our way into the tournament. What I said at the time and has proved to be true is that the Maine losses would kill our shot at a #1 seed in the end. Not playing the CCHA has also hurt us.

I have no problem going into the tournament as a #2 seed, because I think UND is hands down the best team in the nation right now. I think the best thing that can happen is that we avoid that game against a Colorado school in Colorado or a Michigan school in Michigan.

I would love a shot at Notre Dame to get to the Frozen Four or a shot at New Hampshire on NHL Ice. I really wouldn't want to see Minnesota (too much spent karma), but fear no one.

[Let'sGoHawks!]

All that matters for UND is this: Keep winning. One game at a time.

[PCM]

I see that Bemidji State lost to CHA powerhouse Robert Morris. I can't imagine how much that development will hurt UND in the INCH Power Rankings.

[jimdahl]

It is VERY unlikely that we can flip the New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, or Notre Dame comparisons. Even if we play and beat Minnesota again.

If Notre Dame plays just one more TUC (likely in a conference tournament), we could easily take the TUC comparison and that pairwise comparison if we perform well enough in our remaining contests against TUCs.

The rest that you list are pretty out of reach. The closest would be if we went about 1.000 and Maine went about .500, we could overtake them on RPI. Their quality road wins are really helping them; we would otherwise be about equal.

The more interesting thing to note from UND's RPI details page is that due to the strength of our remaining opponents, we need to go 5/7 just to keep our current RPI. A drop to .545 (from going 4 of 7) would cause us to lose the BU and Michigan comparisons on RPI.

[SiouxFanInBoston]

The rest that you list are pretty out of reach. The closest would be if we went about 1.000 and Maine went about .500, we could overtake them on RPI. Their quality road wins are really helping them; we would otherwise be about equal.

Unfortunately, I think we are responsible for Maine's "quality road wins." BUT ... that was early in the season and we're a different team now.

I say we just keep winning so we don't have to worry about what else COULD happen. Concentrate on one game at a time. Starting with tonight...

GO SIOUX!!

[U2Bad1]

I dont care about the #1 seed, UND is just lucky to be getting in after the dismal start to the season.

[7NationalTitles]

In Short, highly unlikely...

First, if we win tonight, MSU drops from the top 25 RPI, and we lose 4 TUC wins, the only thing worse would be is we lost... After the series Go MSU Fighting Goons...

It is VERY unlikely that we can flip the New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, or Notre Dame comparisons. Even if we play and beat Minnesota again.

We are currently losing but have a good chance to the DU and SCCC comparisons, if and only if we can sweep or take 3 of 4 points on the road.

We are currently winning and could lose comparisons to BC (TUC), Clarkson (COP), Michigan (RPI).

This means we can reasonably expect a PWR ranking between 15 and 20, which is highly unlikely to be a #1 seed. We will most likely be a #2 or possibly a #3 seed.

This is good news since barring a monumental collapse, we have played our way into the tournament. What I said at the time and has proved to be true is that the Maine losses would kill our shot at a #1 seed in the end. Not playing the CCHA has also hurt us.

I have no problem going into the tournament as a #2 seed, because I think UND is hands down the best team in the nation right now. I think the best thing that can happen is that we avoid that game against a Colorado school in Colorado or a Michigan school in Michigan.

I would love a shot at Notre Dame to get to the Frozen Four or a shot at New Hampshire on NHL Ice. I really wouldn't want to see Minnesota (too much spent karma), but fear no one.

It's not a given that MSU drops from the top 25 RPI with a loss tonight. If RIT, Lake Superior and Anchorage all lose tonight, MSU will very likely remain in the top 25 of RPI. Then Mankato will need to take at least two points next week up in Anchorage and win some games the rest of the year. But by the end of the season, UND will need Mankato to be in the top 25, along with St. Lawrence, Dartmouth, and Bemidji State. With six wins and no losses as of now against those teams, and possibly a seventh if the Sioux win tonight, those teams remaining in the top 25 of the RPI will go a long way in determining if the Sioux are a high #2 seed or a low #3 seed.

[7>4]

Just get in the field of 16 which is by no means assured at this point. If the Sioux want to hoist number 8, they are gonna have to beat all comers no matter what the seed. I don't care what our seed is or what region we go to. I just want to see the Green and White picked as on the 16 with the chance to win in all.

[sagard]

Just get in the field of 16 which is by no means assured at this point. If the Sioux want to hoist number 8, they are gonna have to beat all comers no matter what the seed. I don't care what our seed is or what region we go to. I just want to see the Green and White picked as on the 16 with the chance to win in all.

Have you seen your guys play lately? The tourney is a LOCK. The Sioux will likely be a #2. That most likely keeps them out of Colorado because DU will likely be a #2 or #3.

[7>4]

Have you seen your guys play lately? The tourney is a LOCK. The Sioux will likely be a #2. That most likely keeps them out of Colorado because DU will likely be a #2 or #3.

All year long. In fact, just watched a 2 goal lead fade away during last four minutes against Mankato. Nothing is a lock in the WCHA. Sioux have three big series left, two against top 3 teams. They need to go 4-2 at least make it to the final five. Sioux are playing very well right now. However, tonights game proves that they can still have the kind of lapses that resulted in a piss poor first half of the season.

[siouxnami]

So the Sioux get 3 of 4 vs. UMD and drop to #12. What happened?

Easy, MSU is no longer a TUC, we lose 3 wins and 1 tie, and our TUC % goes way down and as a result a couple of comparisons are lost.

In theory MSU, can finish a TUC, but I wouldn't count on it. BSU can win the CHA and thus become a TUC, could happen, but I wouldn't rely on it. Wisconsin will be a TUC which will continue to hurt us. The reality is that if we take 3 of the next 4 we will probably be a 2 seed, if we lose 3 of 4 we may be on the outside looking in.

Denver is the most important series. 3 points and we probably secure the comparison.

SCSU is a wild card, we can help ourselves with a sweep, but SCSU will probably still win the comparison.

The good news is that at #12 we are along way from #13.

UND can easily flip comparisons with Michigan, Denver, Clarkson, and BC if the continue their run. This would leave us with 18 comparisons and a likely #2 seed.

[stickboy1956]

So the Sioux get 3 of 4 vs. UMD and drop to #12. What happened?

Easy, MSU is no longer a TUC, we lose 3 wins and 1 tie, and our TUC % goes way down and as a result a couple of comparisons are lost.

In theory MSU, can finish a TUC, but I wouldn't count on it. BSU can win the CHA and thus become a TUC, could happen, but I wouldn't rely on it. Wisconsin will be a TUC which will continue to hurt us. The reality is that if we take 3 of the next 4 we will probably be a 2 seed, if we lose 3 of 4 we may be on the outside looking in.

Denver is the most important series. 3 points and we probably secure the comparison.

SCSU is a wild card, we can help ourselves with a sweep, but SCSU will probably still win the comparison.

The good news is that at #12 we are along way from #13.

UND can easily flip comparisons with Michigan, Denver, Clarkson, and BC if the continue their run. This would leave us with 18 comparisons and a likely #2 seed.

We also want a Friday afternoon game at the X.

[siouxnami]

We also want a Friday afternoon game at the X.

History says that if you finish in the top 4 you should be OK, because one of the top 3 will be upset. Given the fire the Sioux are playing with #2 is a very real possibility.

[redwing77]

Have you seen your guys play lately? The tourney is a LOCK. The Sioux will likely be a #2. That most likely keeps them out of Colorado because DU will likely be a #2 or #3.

I wish I was as confident as you are.

I see us going 2-2 the rest of the regular season. How that plays out in the PWR is unknown to me. I don't understand PWR at all.

I just want us to make the field of 16. I think we are good enough to win the first round and after that, we'll see where we go.

[I Ranger]

This might be a dumb question but I've been wondering this for a while now with the Sioux tying both Mankato and UMD. Do those two ties pretty much equal a loss when it comes to Pairwise ananlysis? In other words, will two ties equal one loss when it comes to the Pairwise or 2 wins and 2 ties better than having 3 wins and a loss. Like I said it might be a dumb question but I was wondering if anyone knows.

[Goon]

I wish I was as confident as you are.

I see us going 2-2 the rest of the regular season. How that plays out in the PWR is unknown to me. I don't understand PWR at all.

I just want us to make the field of 16. I think we are good enough to win the first round and after that, we'll see where we go.

Its all math, not one of my strong suits. I think UND should worry about making the tourney.

I love some of the projections the flat belly experts have place UND in. I dare them to put the Sioux in the same Bracket as Notre Dame or UNH.

[PCM]

I love some of the projections the flat belly experts...

Good thing I don't have to worry about being included in that group.

[The Whistler]

I think once you're in the regional it doesn't matter your seed.

After all you have to beat the best to be the best. There's no second place in the regional. Does it matter if you play the #1 seed the first night or the final night?

I'd like us to get into #3 in the WCHA tournament because that eliminates you playing Thursday and then playing the fresh #1 seed the next day. The teams lining up to be #4 and #4 right now better hope that Minnesota keeps their lead. That means they at least have 20+ hours to recover before their next game.

[Goon]

Good thing I don't have to worry about being included in that group.

I am the furthest from a flat bellied expert as they get.

[sagard]

After all you have to beat the best to be the best. There's no second place in the regional. Does it matter if you play the #1 seed the first night or the final night?

Often this isn't true. Often the best get beat by someone else.

[Goon]

I think once you're in the regional it doesn't matter your seed.

After all you have to beat the best to be the best. There's no second place in the regional. Does it matter if you play the #1 seed the first night or the final night?

I'd like us to get into #3 in the WCHA tournament because that eliminates you playing Thursday and then playing the fresh #1 seed the next day. The teams lining up to be #4 and #4 right now better hope that Minnesota keeps their lead. That means they at least have 20+ hours to recover before their next game.

I am not so sure this year it would be that bad because of the Minnesota rule, we would get to play the 700 pm game as opposed to the 200pm game

I like our chances against the vermin.

[The Whistler]

I am not so sure this year it would be that bad because of the Minnesota rule, we would get to play the 700 pm game as opposed to the 200pm game

I like our chances against the vermin.

Still, you have to play with tired legs against a fresh team. The other thing is that if you win Thursday and lose Friday you wind up playing the #2 or #3 seed team Saturday after playing two games. The #2 or #3 team played Friday afternoon at not at all on Thursday. That does put the winner of Thursday nights game at a disadvantage.

Hopefully that wouldn't drop you out of the tournament, but it could.

Has anyone said that we just need to keep winning?

[siouxpuckster]

This might be a dumb question but I've been wondering this for a while now with the Sioux tying both Mankato and UMD. Do those two ties pretty much equal a loss when it comes to Pairwise ananlysis? In other words, will two ties equal one loss when it comes to the Pairwise or 2 wins and 2 ties better than having 3 wins and a loss. Like I said it might be a dumb question but I was wondering if anyone knows.

[stickboy1956]

Still, you have to play with tired legs against a fresh team. The other thing is that if you win Thursday and lose Friday you wind up playing the #2 or #3 seed team Saturday after playing two games. The #2 or #3 team played Friday afternoon at not at all on Thursday. That does put the winner of Thursday nights game at a disadvantage.

Hopefully that wouldn't drop you out of the tournament, but it could.

Has anyone said that we just need to keep winning?

Best bet for success at the F5 - 3rd place reg season finish and a play the Fri afternoon game and watch the Gophers and the Badgers/Pioneers/Tigers battle it out Fri Night.

[siouxpuckster]

This might be a dumb question but I've been wondering this for a while now with the Sioux tying both Mankato and UMD. Do those two ties pretty much equal a loss when it comes to Pairwise ananlysis? In other words, will two ties equal one loss when it comes to the Pairwise or 2 wins and 2 ties better than having 3 wins and a loss. Like I said it might be a dumb question but I was wondering if anyone knows.

I think when it comes to RPI it counts as a loss but with TUC and COP it counts as 1/2 a win.