yzerman19 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Well THAT is me But, I'm not familiar with the article big sky's talking about. I honestly would've guessed that 50% was too high for 1 seeds -- would be interested in seeing the stats myself. 50% to win a national title seems almost impossible from a statistical perspective. Not trying to call anyone out, just thinking about it from my old days having to play with mini-tab in Blegan Hall... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvdebbies Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 This would be an interesting wager if one was prone to that sort of thing: Minnesota/Boston College/Wisconsin/Quinnipiac vs. the field. On one side: the #1 seeds from the West, Midwest, and Northeast, plus the #2 seed from the East On the other side: the other 12 teams in the tournament KRACH suggests that Minnesota, BC, UW, and Quinnipiac will win the tourney a combined 50.35 percent of the time. Which side would you take? I would think that wagers on both sides of this equation would be fairly even, considering some big names are still in the field: Union, UMass-Lowell, Denver, North Dakota, St. Cloud State, Notre Dame, Ferris State, etc. Discuss. Dave Those are nicely matched. That's an important point about the way to interpret the odds... one might think that because so many championships have gone to teams predicted at 2% and 7% teams means the predictions were wrong. But, teams with under a 7% chance add up to 44%, which means its almost even odds the winner will have had an under 7% chance. Does anyone know where the article is that showed percentages of teams winning the frozen four? It showed the four top seeds win it a little over 50% of the time and all the others which have individually about a 7% chance to win it, but collectively these seeds win it just under 50% of the time? Thought it was interesting and I wanted to show it to someone, thanks. Is this what you are talking about Bigskyvikes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigskyvikes Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 50% to win a national title seems almost impossible from a statistical perspective. Not trying to call anyone out, just thinking about it from my old days having to play with mini-tab in Blegan Hall... Its collectively, 4 teams (#1's) have historically won the title a little over 50% of the time. The 2,3,4 seeds have collectively won the title a little less than 50% of the time. Something like each #1 has like a 20% chance to win it and 2,3,4's have something like a 7% chance each to win it. There was many comments after the writing saying this was an interesting way to look at it and that it really shows that any team can win and statistically has won. I can't find it!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigskyvikes Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Is this what you are talking about Bigskyvikes? I believe so and I did think Jim commented on it but then he said he would like to see it. I thought it went a little deeper, there was comments after the writing, I thought? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigskyvikes Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Thank you... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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