Economic Activity in GF

[Goon]

How about an outlet mall like the one near Albertville, Minn.? Oh yeah, and another off-ramp south of 32nd would be nice, too, Santa!

I can't afford my wife now I can't imagine her with an outlet mall at her disposal.

[Let'sGoHawks!]

I can't afford my wife now I can't imagine her with an outlet mall at her disposal.

True Goon...but maybe if there were one in GF, the novelty would wear off and would save you money in the long run....yeah prob not actually.

[watchmaker49]

How about an outlet mall like the one near Albertville, Minn.? Oh yeah, and another off-ramp south of 32nd would be nice, too, Santa!

An outlet mall I think would do great in GF. It would capture the traffic going to Fargo and Minneapolis. Since Walmart is going to build on Gateway that would be a good location also for an outlet mall.

[jpiehl]

Maybe with all these visitors Grand Forks could actually build something "touristy". Waterpark. Mini golf. Rollercoaster. Ski jump you name it.

Need lots more "ecolab type" businesses.

Or maybe a monorail....

[mg2009]

I agree with you, but according to the "experts" at the ND State Data Center at NDSU in Fargo (big surprise there, right?) keep insisting that Grand Forks is losing population. But with all the houses and apartment buildings being built on the south end year after year, the brisk commercial activity and increasing enrollment at UND, it's hard to believe that. No one is going to sink millions into an apartment building if there isn't a demand for housing, which there is.

Their data was also showing that fargo was stagnant, so you can put your conspiracy theory down. Grand fork's growth over the last 8 years or so is pretty impressive if you had never been anywhere that was actually growing at a decent clip.

[mg2009]

also, i would be hesitant investing in an area whose boom is largely based around an exchange rate differential that could disappear in a matter of months.

[82SiouxGuy]

also, i would be hesitant investing in an area whose boom is largely based around an exchange rate differential that could disappear in a matter of months.

Sorry to disappoint you, but the Canadian traffic is only one part of the economic activity in the area. The economic upswing isn't "largely" based on that one segment. It is based on ag, technology, UND, bleed-over from the oil boom and some other minor factors besides the Canadian traffic.

[mg2009]

Sorry to disappoint you, but the Canadian traffic is only one part of the economic activity in the area. The economic upswing isn't "largely" based on that one segment. It is based on ag, technology, UND, bleed-over from the oil boom and some other minor factors besides the Canadian traffic.

agreed, but i would say that Canadians are the largest contributor.

[82SiouxGuy]

agreed, but i would say that Canadians are the largest contributor.

Canadians did significant business in Grand Forks when their dollar was worth $0.60 on the American dollar. Canadian traffic is one of the reasons that Target and other large chains moved into Grand Forks during the late 1970's and early 1980's when the exchange rate was not favorable to them. They would continue to do significant business if the exchange rate went that way again. Prices on goods are much higher in Canada, which is a big driver for their shopping in the United States. The numbers have increased because of the more favorable exchange rate, but that increase is a fairly small part of the overall Grand Forks economy.

[watchmaker49]

Canadians did significant business in Grand Forks when their dollar was worth $0.60 on the American dollar. Canadian traffic is one of the reasons that Target and other large chains moved into Grand Forks during the late 1970's and early 1980's when the exchange rate was not favorable to them. They would continue to do significant business if the exchange rate went that way again. Prices on goods are much higher in Canada, which is a big driver for their shopping in the United States. The numbers have increased because of the more favorable exchange rate, but that increase is a fairly small part of the overall Grand Forks economy.

Tell that to the hotels, Loews, and Menards and they would look at you and laugh.

[82SiouxGuy]

Tell that to the hotels, Loews, and Menards and they would look at you and laugh.

Hotels definitely are being helped by the current exchange rate. The Canadian traffic are an important part of why we have seen several new hotels built in recent years. Overall, as a part of the Grand Forks economy, the increase in sales because of the better exchange rate is still only a small part of the total package.

[watchmaker49]

Hotels definitely are being helped by the current exchange rate. The Canadian traffic are an important part of why we have seen several new hotels built in recent years. Overall, as a part of the Grand Forks economy, the increase in sales because of the better exchange rate is still only a small part of the total package.

And you know this how?

[Torpedo]

An outlet mall I think would do great in GF. It would capture the traffic going to Fargo and Minneapolis. Since Walmart is going to build on Gateway that would be a good location also for an outlet mall.

I completely agree with the concept of an outlet mall succeeding in GF. The market is definitely there to support it. However, has anyone given any thought as to who is going to work there? I don't know if anyone has noticed, but pretty much every retail store in town is always hiring right now because there simply are not enough part-time workers to support all of the new businesses opening. Wages in GF simply are not high enough encourage most of the college students to get a part-time job, or to stay in town during the summer instead of going home. There is a real serious shortage in workers for these jobs and unless the pay increases, there will never be enough staffing for all these new businesses.

[82SiouxGuy]

And you know this how?

Information from the Chamber of Commerce, experience in the market, talking to a variety of people in the business community, watching things like sales tax numbers and other economic indicators over the past 30 or so years. Remember, I said that the INCREASE IN SALES from Canadian traffic is a small part of the overall economic package in Grand Forks. Canadian visitors have always been an important part of the Grand Forks economy. They are coming in bigger numbers. But almost every segment of the Grand Forks economy is also doing bigger numbers than they were even 3-5 years ago. But I'm sure that you know much better from your pool in Arizona.

[82SiouxGuy]

I completely agree with the concept of an outlet mall succeeding in GF. The market is definitely there to support it. However, has anyone given any thought as to who is going to work there? I don't know if anyone has noticed, but pretty much every retail store in town is always hiring right now because there simply are not enough part-time workers to support all of the new businesses opening. Wages in GF simply are not high enough encourage most of the college students to get a part-time job, or to stay in town during the summer instead of going home. There is a real serious shortage in workers for these jobs and unless the pay increases, there will never be enough staffing for all these new businesses.

There are approximately 2,400 jobs listed with Job Service North Dakota right now in the Grand Forks region, most in Grand Forks itself. A large number of those are retail, food service and other entry level type jobs. You're right, an outlet mall would add to that problem. A lot of people in the state, government and private enterprise people, are looking for answers to those issues. The problem is much worse the further west you go in the state.

[watchmaker49]

Information from the Chamber of Commerce, experience in the market, talking to a variety of people in the business community, watching things like sales tax numbers and other economic indicators over the past 30 or so years. Remember, I said that the INCREASE IN SALES from Canadian traffic is a small part of the overall economic package in Grand Forks. Canadian visitors have always been an important part of the Grand Forks economy. They are coming in bigger numbers. But almost every segment of the Grand Forks economy is also doing bigger numbers than they were even 3-5 years ago. But I'm sure that you know much better from your pool in Arizona.

You give all your methods as to how you reached your conclussion. I have one question as to your methodology. How can you distinguish between sources as to where the sales tax came from? They are coming in bigger numbers but they also are buying hard goods. What they are buying and how much more they are buying than in the past is the difference. From observation of the number of Manitoba plates you see on any given day at Walmart, Menards, Loews (strip) and Target (strip) as a percentage of cars in the parking lot half are from Manitoba. All around Columbia and 32nd. everything is 50% Manitobans. I believe you are not giving them enough credit as to their impact on the economy.

[The Sicatoka]

From observation of the number of Manitoba plates you see on any given day at Walmart and Target as a percentage of cars in the parking lot half are from Manitoba. All around Columbia and 32nd. everything is 50% Manitobans.

How can you see that from your pool in Arizona? Did you eat lots of carrots when you were a kid and have great eyesight now?

[watchmaker49]

How can you see that from your pool in Arizona? Did you eat lots of carrots when you were a kid and have great eyesight now?

Never said I had always lived here did I?

[Teeder11]

Maybe WM is a snowbird. Who knows? Who cares?

[82SiouxGuy]

You give all your methods as to how you reached your conclussion. I have one question as to your methodology. How can you distinguish between sources as to where the sales tax came from? They are coming in bigger numbers but they also are buying hard goods. What they are buying and how much more they are buying than in the past is the difference. From observation of the number of Manitoba plates you see on any given day at Walmart, Menards, Loews (strip) and Target (strip) as a percentage of cars in the parking lot half are from Manitoba. All around Columbia and 32nd. everything is 50% Manitobans. I believe you are not giving them enough credit as to their impact on the economy.

Retail and hospitality are not the biggest segments of the Grand Forks economy. Agriculture, education, healthcare, defense, manufacturing and food processing are also large parts of the economy. Most of these segments have also had significant increases in the past 3-5 years. Also, Canadian traffic is important to the local retail economy, but US citizens still spend more money in Grand Forks retail establishments than Canadians do. If retail isn't the biggest segment of the economy,and if Canadian traffic is less than half of the retail market, and if most parts of the economy have seen increases in business, then it only seems logical that the increase in Canadian traffic is not the major factor in the overall increase seen in the Grand Forks economy.

Increased Canadian traffic is one part of the success that Grand Forks is experiencing. It may be the major factor for the boom that Grand Forks hotels are experiencing and a major factor for retail and restaurants. But residents are also increasing their spending because more people are working and wages have increased in the region. There are also more people living in the region. So the increase in sales tax is not all because of Canadian traffic.

Retail is the most visible part of the Grand Forks economy to the naked eye. But more Canadian shoppers isn't the major reason that Grand Forks is doing well economically. By the way, basing an opinion on the overall economy based on the number of license plates you perceive are in retail parking lots is not an effective way to come to a valid conclusion. Besides, your perception isn't exactly accurate. Monday through Thursday you will find only a small percentage of Canadian license plates. Many local people have shifted their shopping patterns because of the increased Canadian traffic and do their shopping during the week. On weekends there will be times when the number of Canadian plates may be close to 50%, but that isn't true every weekend. Throughout the entire week, much less than 50% of the cars in local retail establishment parking lots are Canadian.

If you don't believe me, there are plenty of sources that can provide information on the entire economy of Grand Forks, information on sales tax and a rough breakdown of how much of retail sales comes from Canadian customers plus just about anything you want to know. Try contacting the Grand Forks-East Grand Forks Chamber, the Grand Forks Economic Development Corporation, the Convention and Visitors Bureau and the North Dakota Tax Commissioners office to start. I'm not going to do the work for you. If you want to prove me wrong you can do the homework and put actual numbers together.

[watchmaker49]

Retail and hospitality are not the biggest segments of the Grand Forks economy. Agriculture, education, healthcare, defense, manufacturing and food processing are also large parts of the economy. Most of these segments have also had significant increases in the past 3-5 years. Also, Canadian traffic is important to the local retail economy, but US citizens still spend more money in Grand Forks retail establishments than Canadians do. If retail isn't the biggest segment of the economy,and if Canadian traffic is less than half of the retail market, and if most parts of the economy have seen increases in business, then it only seems logical that the increase in Canadian traffic is not the major factor in the overall increase seen in the Grand Forks economy.

Increased Canadian traffic is one part of the success that Grand Forks is experiencing. It may be the major factor for the boom that Grand Forks hotels are experiencing and a major factor for retail and restaurants. But residents are also increasing their spending because more people are working and wages have increased in the region. There are also more people living in the region. So the increase in sales tax is not all because of Canadian traffic.

Retail is the most visible part of the Grand Forks economy to the naked eye. But more Canadian shoppers isn't the major reason that Grand Forks is doing well economically. By the way, basing an opinion on the overall economy based on the number of license plates you perceive are in retail parking lots is not an effective way to come to a valid conclusion. Besides, your perception isn't exactly accurate. Monday through Thursday you will find only a small percentage of Canadian license plates. Many local people have shifted their shopping patterns because of the increased Canadian traffic and do their shopping during the week. On weekends there will be times when the number of Canadian plates may be close to 50%, but that isn't true every weekend. Throughout the entire week, much less than 50% of the cars in local retail establishment parking lots are Canadian.

If you don't believe me, there are plenty of sources that can provide information on the entire economy of Grand Forks, information on sales tax and a rough breakdown of how much of retail sales comes from Canadian customers plus just about anything you want to know. Try contacting the Grand Forks-East Grand Forks Chamber, the Grand Forks Economic Development Corporation, the Convention and Visitors Bureau and the North Dakota Tax Commissioners office to start. I'm not going to do the work for you. If you want to prove me wrong you can do the homework and put actual numbers together.

Actually I believe you because you can make a wonderful argument that makes a lot of sense. I concede to your argument. I really do believe that you really do know what you are talking about. I still think you are underestimating the number of Canadian plates during the week though. Have you ever looked at the number of Canadians using the airport? I have parking data on that if you would like to see it. It is a real thank you Canada for bringing Allegiant to GF.

What I do find interesting in your argument is how for the last 3-5 years there has been growth in GF. The rest of country went one way and GF went the other way. GF seems to have been doing better since Oct. 2008 than before. The economic rain that flooded the rest of the country actually gave nutrition to GF's economy.

[GeauxSioux]

I stayed in a GF hotel a couple of weeks ago and the parking lot looked like it was in Winnipeg. Nice to see the Canadians coming down to the US to spend money.

[82SiouxGuy]

Actually I believe you because you can make a wonderful argument that makes a lot of sense. I concede to your argument. I really do believe that you really do know what you are talking about. I still think you are underestimating the number of Canadian plates during the week though. Have you ever looked at the number of Canadians using the airport? I have parking data on that if you would like to see it. It is a real thank you Canada for bringing Allegiant to GF.

You are correct, Allegiant would not be in Grand Forks if not for the Canadians coming down to use the airport. We can also probably thank them for the new air service to Denver from United that starts in October. The airport has tapped into the Canadian market and taken a small piece away from Winnipeg. Most of these travelers are from the area between Winnipeg and the border. They would still have to drive a distance to the airport, but can often save hundreds by flying out of Grand Forks. It is kind of like the people that used to drive to Fargo or Minneapolis to fly. Most of that traffic now uses Grand Forks because of the options and pricing now available. That market has a lot of room to grow and could be great for the airport and for bringing more options to Grand Forks travelers.

The Canadians coming down to fly out don't normally do as much shopping in Grand Forks on that trip as the average Canadian shopper does. They are spending their money on the trip, so they don't have as much time to shop or as much money to spend as they would if they were just coming for the weekend. A lot of the people using the airport just drive in the day of the flight or the night before, and they often drive straight home without shopping much in Grand Forks. But the parking lot at the airport is usually filled with Manitoba plates.

[watchmaker49]

You are correct, Allegiant would not be in Grand Forks if not for the Canadians coming down to use the airport. We can also probably thank them for the new air service to Denver from United that starts in October. The airport has tapped into the Canadian market and taken a small piece away from Winnipeg. Most of these travelers are from the area between Winnipeg and the border. They would still have to drive a distance to the airport, but can often save hundreds by flying out of Grand Forks. It is kind of like the people that used to drive to Fargo or Minneapolis to fly. Most of that traffic now uses Grand Forks because of the options and pricing now available. That market has a lot of room to grow and could be great for the airport and for bringing more options to Grand Forks travelers.

The Canadians coming down to fly out don't normally do as much shopping in Grand Forks on that trip as the average Canadian shopper does. They are spending their money on the trip, so they don't have as much time to shop or as much money to spend as they would if they were just coming for the weekend. A lot of the people using the airport just drive in the day of the flight or the night before, and they often drive straight home without shopping much in Grand Forks. But the parking lot at the airport is usually filled with Manitoba plates.

This is so true. Allegiant has tended to make their flight schedules easy for Canadians to come down and get on the plane and go home as soon as they get back. GFK Flight Support told me that 75-80% of the Allegiant boardings are Canadians. Which I could believe once you count the cars in the lot. There were over a hundred cars on a Tuesday with Manitoba plates. I think the people who flew on Delta would stay over more than Allegiant with the earlier departure and arrivals. St. Cloud is getting service to Mesa this year. St. Cloud really needs this service to try and sell UA or AA to start service to Chicago. Hard to sell an airline on getting service when you have no boarding numbers to show them. Mesa is doing the same thing by getting Frontier to start service to Denver.

[Cratter]

Need lots more "ecolab type" businesses.

So much for that. Guess everyone will work in restaurants here.