UND92,96 Posted October 27, 2003 Share Posted October 27, 2003 Calling this a huge game would be an understatement. The Sioux haven't had much luck against the Mavericks in recent years, losing the last three by a total of eight points. This has been the one team that Dale Lennon-coached teams haven't had much success against for some reason. It's really pretty surprising, considering UNO is primarily a running team and UND has typically had a very strong rush defense. As with the NDSU game, stopping the run is the biggest key. Kammrad (sp.?) is a very good back, and is by far the leading rusher in the NCC. UNO's lowest rushing total this year was against NDSU when they had 132 yards, and I think the Sioux need to hold them to around that same number to have a good chance to win. UNO has actually put up some pretty good passing numbers this year, even though they only throw about 20 times a game. However, the quarterback sounds like he will be hobbled after suffering a knee injury in the fourth quarter against St. Cloud in which he left the game with about 8:00 minutes to go and didn't return despite the fact that the game was very much in doubt until the final second. However, I strongly suspect he'll play this week if at all possible since they really don't have a backup with any experience at all. He's not a pure passer, but as mentioned he has decent numbers. However, if the Sioux have similiar success stopping the run as they did against NDSU, I highly doubt that a hobbled Masek will be able to beat UND by throwing the ball. Aside from the usual keys for UND of not turning the ball over more than once and successfully throwing the ball against a defense that Keith Heckendorf really torched last week, the biggest key in my opinion is getting punts off without them getting blocked. I'm sure many of us remember that was the reason the Sioux lost to these guys in 2001, and without the block against NDSU the game probably never even gets into overtime. Unfortunately, Bentow has had a tendency over the years to either get punts blocked or at least nearly blocked due in no small part to his slow wind-up. If the Sioux have a lead in the fourth quarter, I would definitely keep everybody in tight on the punt team and kick it as quickly as possible. A 30 yard punt is far better than getting it blocked, needless to say. By the way, UND punted once the entire game against Mankato, and it was partially blocked, believe it or not. Maybe we should just go for it on all fourth downs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmail Posted October 27, 2003 Share Posted October 27, 2003 Not gonna sugar-coat it... Jeff Glas needs to get his s&!t together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bisonfan1234 Posted October 27, 2003 Share Posted October 27, 2003 If you lose to UNO it will help us to get into the play-offs as well. Your cooperation is appriciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WYOBISONMAN Posted October 27, 2003 Share Posted October 27, 2003 I am a solid UNO fan this week.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UND92,96 Posted October 27, 2003 Author Share Posted October 27, 2003 I am a solid UNO fan this week.... I do still think that if NDSU an UND run the rest of the schedule that it would be almost impossible to deny each a playoff spot. Clearly a loss by NDSU would eliminate the Bison from the playoff picture....and I also think another loss by UND would eliminate the Sioux as well as hurt the Bison's chances at a playoff seat. It puts this Bison fan in the ackward possition of wanting the Sioux to run thier schedule..... It certainly didn't take too long for you to re-think your position on this one... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WYOBISONMAN Posted October 27, 2003 Share Posted October 27, 2003 Well, the way it is lining up it looks like a UND loss to UNO will help us for sure. I would still love a Bison/Sioux rematch in the playoffs....too bad the NCAA would get the gate from that one...We would be funding a bunch of D2 playoff games other than our own.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bisonguy Posted October 27, 2003 Share Posted October 27, 2003 UNO will be coming after the punter. They had two roughing the punter penalties against NDSU. They did come close to the ball. The only other team that has been close to the Bison punter was UC-Davis, and their whole team is FAST. Turnovers will be very important. If the Mavs run the option like they did against NDSU, UND will easily have two fumble recoveries. UNO has a couple of big receivers that may pose problems for the UND secondary. I believe that five of their receivers were 6'3" +. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UND92,96 Posted October 27, 2003 Author Share Posted October 27, 2003 Turnovers will be very important. If the Mavs run the option like they did against NDSU, UND will easily have two fumble recoveries. There again, Masek's health will be a big issue. If he does play, I can't imagine Behrns would further risk his health by running option when he already supposedly has a sprained m.c.l. I don't believe UNO has much faith in their backup quarterback(s). If UNO has to rely on simply handing the ball off to Kammrad or trying to be a drop-back passing team with a gimpy option-type quarterback at the healm, I don't believe they'll move the ball very well. UND has been playing exceptionally well against the run lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sprig Posted October 27, 2003 Share Posted October 27, 2003 A 30 yard punt is far better than getting it blocked, Unless it's the Vikings blocking it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WYOBISONMAN Posted October 27, 2003 Share Posted October 27, 2003 With Masek out I honestly think a UNO win is quite unlikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sicatoka Posted October 28, 2003 Share Posted October 28, 2003 Omaha knows what's at stake and they won't roll over. One by one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bisonguy Posted October 28, 2003 Share Posted October 28, 2003 DaveK, If it were only that simple. Look at Winona and Concordia-St.Paul last week. Both teams only had one loss, but CSP had already beat Winona. Winona was ranked #3, and CSP was ranked #8 in the regional poll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RD17 Posted October 28, 2003 Share Posted October 28, 2003 I got out my calculator tonight and crunched the numbers in the Midwest Region. If UND wins their last two games, they are a lock for one of the top two seeds in the region. The only team that could overtake the Sioux for the #1 seed is Pittsburg State, but PSU has the toughest remaining schedule of anyone in the region. If PSU wins their last three games, however, they will overtake UND for the top spot. If UND loses to UNO (or USD for that matter) they will need alot of help to get into the playoffs. If NDSU and UNO were to win out, I guarantee you that both of those teams will be ahead of a 2 loss UND team in the final regional poll. The Sioux would probably need Winona and Emporia St. to each lose a game, and Pittsburg St. to lose twice to get into the playoffs. Obviously, the UNO game is a must win. NDSU is in good shape, provided that one ofthe 4 teams above them loses a game. If PSU, Winona, Emporia, and UND win out, NDSU will not make the playoffs. Now before any of our Bison friends come here and say "see, playing I-AA teams doesn't hurt you when it comes to playoff selections", let me make it very clear that this couldn't be further from the truth. If, for example, NDSU had not played Montana and UC Davis and instead scheduled and beat MSUM and UMC, the Bison would be the #1 team in the Midwest Region right now and could probably even afford to lose another game and still get into the playoffs. The biggest reason NDSU still has a shot at the playoffs is because of their games against Tusculum and Concordia- St. Paul. A win against either of those two teams is worth 13 points in the poll, the win over Montana is worth 8! It simply does not make sense to play teams that aren't Division II. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RD17 Posted October 28, 2003 Share Posted October 28, 2003 DaveK, If it were only that simple. Look at Winona and Concordia-St.Paul last week. Both teams only had one loss, but CSP had already beat Winona. Winona was ranked #3, and CSP was ranked #8 in the regional poll. bisonguy, The reason Concordia- St. Paul is still ranked so low is that they played one of the Wisconsin D3 teams. It absolutely kills your schedule strength index when you play teams that aren't D2. The same goes for Central Missouri. They're 7-1, but still only ranked 7th in the Midwest Region, the reason being that they played a NAIA school. If they had played a terrible D2 team instead, they would be 5th in the region (ahead of NDSU) right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NDSU grad Posted October 28, 2003 Share Posted October 28, 2003 RD17, I think that was Bisonguy's point. It appears that the NCAA places more weight on strength of schedule than head-to-head based on what was going on with Winona and CSP. I totally agree with you on the point that the Bison are the highest rated two loss team in the region because of our wins against good DII competition and not the DI-AA games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bisonfan1234 Posted October 28, 2003 Share Posted October 28, 2003 1. If the Sioux lose they would have two losses. 2. The Bison already have two losses. 3. The Sioux beat the Bison. The Sioux will be ranked higher than the Bison next week regardless what happens on Saturday. I believe you've over-simplified this possible scenario by leaving out UNO. If UNO wins out, NDSU wins out, and UND only loses to UNO, ALL THREE WILL HAVE 2 LOSSES. And, as far as head-to-head goes, UND beats NDSU, NDSU beats UNO, UNO beats UND, creating a triangle. So those all cancel each other out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WYOBISONMAN Posted October 28, 2003 Share Posted October 28, 2003 RD....If UND wins out they would be a lock on the number one seed. How on could Pitt get in there ahead of them? As for the Bison I am getting worried about the injury bug. There is a big article in the Forum on it today. Bohl will have to be working on depth in the upcoming years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UND92,96 Posted October 28, 2003 Author Share Posted October 28, 2003 Here's an article on Masek's injury status: link I'm sure he'll probably play, but without the threat of him running I suspect it will somewhat limit their play-calling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RD17 Posted October 29, 2003 Share Posted October 29, 2003 RD....If UND wins out they would be a lock on the number one seed. How on could Pitt get in there ahead of them? As for the Bison I am getting worried about the injury bug. There is a big article in the Forum on it today. Bohl will have to be working on depth in the upcoming years. WYOBISONMAN, With the new strength of schedule index, the old way of doing regional polls where you stay on top until someone beats you is out the window. Like I said before, if both UND and Pitt St. win out, I can almost guarantee you that Pitt St. will get the number 1 seed. According to the NCAA, the SSI is only supposed to be one of several different criteria used, but in doing the calculations for two different regions, the regional rankings are based exactly on the SSI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UND92,96 Posted October 29, 2003 Author Share Posted October 29, 2003 WYOBISONMAN, With the new strength of schedule index, the old way of doing regional polls where you stay on top until someone beats you is out the window. Like I said before, if both UND and Pitt St. win out, I can almost guarantee you that Pitt St. will get the number 1 seed. According to the NCAA, the SSI is only supposed to be one of several different criteria used, but in doing the calculations for two different regions, the regional rankings are based exactly on the SSI. RD17- Are you sure about your numbers? I also tried to calculate the current strength of schedule numbers for the top four ranked teams in the midwest, but after adding all the power points and dividing by the number of games played for each team, I had Winona with a 10, UND with a 9.875, and Emporia and Pitt St. both with 9.75. I'm just curious what your numbers were. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RD17 Posted October 29, 2003 Share Posted October 29, 2003 RD17- Are you sure about your numbers? I also tried to calculate the current strength of schedule numbers for the top four ranked teams in the midwest, but after adding all the power points and dividing by the number of games played for each team, I had Winona with a 10, UND with a 9.875, and Emporia and Pitt St. both with 9.75. I'm just curious what your numbers were. UND 92,96, I went back and double checked my numbers. You're right about Winona- I was off by two points on one of their games so they should be at 10. My numbers for the other three schools are the same as yours. I then have NDSU at 9.625, UNO at 9.55, and Central Missouri at 8.75. Here's the scenarios I was talking about before: If UND wins out: 10.2 If Pitt St. wins out: 10.636 If Winona wins out: 10.18 If Emporia wins out: 10.1 If NDSU wins out: 10.1 If UND loses to UNO, NDSU and UNO win out: NDSU 10.1 UNO 9.91 UND 9.6 The numbers above make some assumptions, of course, about the records that some of the other teams will finish with. I'm not counting on Concordia- St.Paul losing to Wayne St. or UMC or Central Missouri losing to Washburn, but I guess you never know. If UND were to lose to UNO, this is what it I think it would take for the Sioux to get into the playoffs: NDSU loses a game or Winona loses to either UMD or Northern St. Pitt St. beats Central Missouri Central Missouri beats Emporia St. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sicatoka Posted October 29, 2003 Share Posted October 29, 2003 So the old story here remains the same: Control what you can control. Put another way: Beat Omaha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WYOBISONMAN Posted October 29, 2003 Share Posted October 29, 2003 A couple posters on Bisonville are saying if UNO beats the Sioux it may nix NDSU's shot at a playoff spot because it would go to a tie breaker between UNO and NDSU. Given that a UNO win over the Sioux would count more than our win over UNO on head to head competition because we lost in Grand Forks. To me that scenario makes no sense.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hansel Posted October 29, 2003 Share Posted October 29, 2003 A possible playoff scenario from bisonville assuming SU wins out, UNO wins out, UND loses to UNO beats USD records are NDSU 9-2 UNO 9-2 UND 8-2 This would give a three way tie for the conference title, with head to head cancelling eath other out as NDSU beat UNO, UNO beats UND, and UND beats NDSU, conference points would be equal and then nonconference points would favor us see Bison Kent's quote, (we would get one less point for beating CSP as they would finish under .750) BisonKent UND Newberry 7 (sub-.500 team win) Mesa State 4 (+.750 team loss) UM-Crookston 7 (sub-.500 team win) Total of 18 points for non-conference Average = 6.00 per game UNO Nebraska-Kearney 8 (.500-.750 team win) Indiana (PA) 4 (+.750 team loss) MSU-Moorhead 7 (sub-.500 team win) W. Washington 7 (sub-.500 team win) Total of 26 points for non-conference Average = 6.50 per game NDSU Tusculum 9 (+.750 team win) Montana 8 (I-AA team win) UC-Davis 4 (I-AA team loss) Concordia-St. Paul 9 (+.750 team win ??) Total of 30 points for non-conference Average = 7.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoteauRinkRat Posted October 29, 2003 Share Posted October 29, 2003 lets just see how the next couple of weeks play out. There is still an awful lot of football to be played to be talking exactly how the playoffs will be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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