OETKB Posted May 30, 2003 Share Posted May 30, 2003 I found this cell note in my personal Sioux spreadsheet that tracks players and stats and such each year. Originally, I had them pegged to win the WCHA, but I've now revised and updated it. Early Prediction: 2nd place WCHA; F5 Runners-up; National Champions! UND will have the strongest team since 2000, as the large junior class becomes more potent, and the young guns just keep growing in number (Parise, Murray, Stafford). Offense - There is lots of talent here, and this season they will be more skilled and explosive than the past two years Defense - will be strong, skilled and very mobile. Smaby should be an excellent freshman. Losing Hale early hurt, but three returning players (Jones, Fuher, & Schneider) will be hitting their grove as juniors, and Greene is expected to become a defensive "monster" as a soph. Goalies - Brandt is back, plus two good freshmen join the mix. Late last season, Brandt proved to be a solid WCHA keeper. He really handled the pressure of the late season well, but he was not rewarded with any offense. Note, for last season, the very same spreadsheet predicted: Predict: 3rd place WCHA; Loss in NCAA Regionals? UND will be all-around improved from the previous season, with 10 anticipated starting Soph's who were freshmen in UND's first losing season under Blais in '01-02. There will be 20 returning players (Including Fylling & Genoway) this season, which is much better than last season's 12. Offense - a big question mark, as there is plenty of talent, but scoring is not "proven" (Only THREE returning 20+ pt scorers = Bochenski, Lundbohm, Notermann) Defense - will be much more consistent and tougher, as Jones, Fuher, & Schneider will all return as Soph's and Hale is expected to have a "breakout" defensive season. Goalies - Both Siembida & Brandt were decent last season, but somebody needs to become the trusted starter Last season's prediction was not too far off. I hope this year's is right on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OETKB Posted May 30, 2003 Author Share Posted May 30, 2003 P.S. Using a scoring system of 1=freshman & 4=senior, the regular 20 players on UND for the past several seasons have averaged about: '99-00 = 2.7 '00-01 = 2.5 '01-02 = 1.9 '02-03 = 2.2 and my expected rosters for the next two: '03-04 = 2.4 '04-05 = 2.8 I don't think it is any coincidence that UND's last Championship was the year they were the most seasoned. Things are looking up for the next few years, I believe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siouxhockey03 Posted May 31, 2003 Share Posted May 31, 2003 This is going to be one of the deepest teams the Sioux have had in a while, the first two lines will be high scoring and so should the 4th, with the third being a checking line. Defense will be solid and the goaltending is not as bad as everyone thinks. Predictions: 2nd WCHA FF Champs NCAA Champs I really think this is the year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted May 31, 2003 Share Posted May 31, 2003 This is going to be one of the deepest teams the Sioux have had in a while, the first two lines will be high scoring and so should the 4th, with the third being a checking line. Defense will be solid and the goaltending is not as bad as everyone thinks. Predictions: 2nd WCHA FF Champs NCAA Champs I really think this is the year! He,he,he, I am surprised your not pencilling in the Might Gophers for a three peat... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WPoS Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 I am...he-he! WPoS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyeagle Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 Well since you have the magic spreadsheet there is no need to play the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmail Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 Well since you have the magic spreadsheet there is no need to play the season. OK... I'm on board. Let's hang the banner! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OETKB Posted June 2, 2003 Author Share Posted June 2, 2003 Well since you have the magic spreadsheet there is no need to play the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagard Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyeagle Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 It's definitely not a magic spreadsheet. It's all historical. In fact, the only predictive items on the whole thing are the cell notes posted above, and the measure detailed below. Witnessing them play the season and seeing where they end-up in comparrison to those early prognostications is where the fun lies! I do use it to give me a better-educated idea of how competitive they will be in the coming years. In particular, I like the "Average experience" measure. Blais' worst season as coach = 1.9; last Championship = 2.7. I'd say anything over 2.3 gives a team with top-notch recruits a good shot at going the distance. Did I need to add more winks? BTW - Your prediction for next year's Sioux team is eeriely similar to the '02-'03 Gopher results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kr Posted June 3, 2003 Share Posted June 3, 2003 If we are making predictions -- I'll admit that my prediction today was 1 post and 2.5 hours off -- Petey, you won this bet!! You can collect at the first home game! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OETKB Posted June 4, 2003 Author Share Posted June 4, 2003 "I know what I want...and the timing is right. I'll take what is mine..." = 8th Championship. I don't know about you all, but I'm not willing to say UND has to bow down to any team this coming season. Let's get it on, Goofs or BC or anyone else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinnesotaNorthStar Posted June 4, 2003 Share Posted June 4, 2003 I actually agree with airmail...no need to play the season, just give us #8 right now...I mean who's seriously going to beat us...the Gophers? .......now watch, Nat'l Championship game is Anchorage vs. Quinnipiac Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyeagle Posted June 4, 2003 Share Posted June 4, 2003 I actually agree with airmail...no need to play the season, just give us #8 right now...I mean who's seriously going to beat us...the Gophers? Â An eight seed? I thought ya'll would aim a tad higher this year. I guess whatever turns your crank...but it's surely finishing 8th in the WCHA is not something to get excited over, unless you're a Sioux fan I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinnesotaNorthStar Posted June 4, 2003 Share Posted June 4, 2003 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted June 5, 2003 Share Posted June 5, 2003 I will go on Record to say that UND is going to challenge for an NCAA title, if not win it. I think its just a matter of time. The pieces of the puzzle are coming into place. Sure there are people that are going to say that I am all wet but look at UofM they won two NCAA titles with Mediocre goaltending why can't UND... I think tallent level is simular. Beside when Vanek goes pro all things being equal UofM will be good but not three peaters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagard Posted June 5, 2003 Share Posted June 5, 2003 I will go on Record to say that UND is going to challenge for an NCAA title, if not win it. I think its just a matter of time. The pieces of the puzzle are coming into place. Sure there are people that are going to say that I am all wet but look at UofM they won two NCAA titles with Mediocre goaltending why can't UND... I think tallent level is simular. Beside when Vanek goes pro all things being equal UofM will be good but not three peaters. Didn't you say this type of thing last year? Actually, I think UND and the Gophers will be best in the WCHA next year. However UMD or DU may surprise. The Gophers did not dominate WCHA play either of the last two years, so I really don't see walking away with the league as many of my fellow Gophs fans assume. It's pretty sad, but the key to either the Gophs or UND winning the title will be avoiding Michigan in the MW regional. Other keys are if all players currently expected to return actually do, Martin, Ballard, Vanek, Bochenski, Parise, etc... You don't need great goalies to win, but you will need your goalie to play great. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinnesotaNorthStar Posted June 5, 2003 Share Posted June 5, 2003 Didn't you say this type of thing last year? Actually, I think UND and the Gophers will be best in the WCHA next year. However UMD or DU may surprise. The Gophers did not dominate WCHA play either of the last two years, so I really don't see walking away with the league as many of my fellow Gophs fans assume. It's pretty sad, but the key to either the Gophs or UND winning the title will be avoiding Michigan in the MW regional. Other keys are if all players currently expected to return actually do, Martin, Ballard, Vanek, Bochenski, Parise, etc... You don't need great goalies to win, but you will need your goalie to play great. Could it be? Words of wisdom from a Gopher fan? Sagard: you hit the nail right on the head. The best two will be UND and MN. UMD I think will be up there as well, and could be contenders. DU will be good, but as far as title contenders, I think that depends a lot on their recruiting class. They do lose quite a bit for next year. The key for any team to win is to avoid Michigan in Michigan. Way to go out on a limb To quote Metallica, " Sad, but true." I'd actually like to see UND or Minnesota go out east for the regionals (assuming they both make it, which I believe is pretty likely), so we can have a classic Sioux-Gopher final. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagies Posted June 5, 2003 Share Posted June 5, 2003 Didn't you say this type of thing last year? Actually, I think UND and the Gophers will be best in the WCHA next year. However UMD or DU may surprise. The Gophers did not dominate WCHA play either of the last two years, so I really don't see walking away with the league as many of my fellow Gophs fans assume. It's pretty sad, but the key to either the Gophs or UND winning the title will be avoiding Michigan in the MW regional. Other keys are if all players currently expected to return actually do, Martin, Ballard, Vanek, Bochenski, Parise, etc... You don't need great goalies to win, but you will need your goalie to play great. Great point on goaltending.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OETKB Posted June 5, 2003 Author Share Posted June 5, 2003 An interesting comparison to what I posted earlier: UM's 2002-03 Championship team's "Average experience" score = 2.3 People are talking about how young the goofs were, but the top 20 score above indicates they were well balanced in terms of experience. UM will be even higher on the scale next season, which should give them an excellent shot at another return trip. As I indicated before, UND will be about 2.4 on the scale next season, which will give them a much better shot at the Frozen Four. Obviously, the games are played by people, not statistics, but I really like this measure as an indicator of probable success, given that recruits are roughly equal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superman0099 Posted June 5, 2003 Share Posted June 5, 2003 Actually, I think UND and the Gophers will be best in the WCHA next year. However UMD or DU may surprise. I would bet that UMD will be a top 4 WCHA team next year, and make the NCAA's, but I am skeptical of Denver. I doubt they have brought in a strong enough freshman class to make up for the loss of Doell, Dubie, and McKenzie. However... they do still have Dora the Explora Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kr Posted June 5, 2003 Share Posted June 5, 2003 I'd think that UMN will maintain their excellent run of success, but there will be some really strong teams in the WCHA. I think both UND and UMD will continue to build on last year's success and take some more steps forward. Looking at last year's finish I'd hazard a guess that MSU-M doesn't finish second (tied for) in the league -- their players gained valuable experience participating in the regionals and Jutting seems to always have his team ready to play -- but Stevenson's loss will be felt. Stevenson alone was not the reason for their success, but he was a significant link in the chain -- plus, MSU-M had the advantage of surprise -- who but the Mav fans thought they'd accomplish what they did -- this year everyone will be ready (or at least should be) for them. For me the biggest dissappointment was CC. Nothing against the gophers, because if the Sioux don't take it all I'd like it to be a WCHA team -- but I was really hoping that CC would be the "other" WCHA school to win the title last year. They really seemed to be the cream of the crop last year, so the fizzle at the end of the season makes me wonder what their morale will be like this year. Without Senja they still are really solid, maybe the ending to last year will be a big motivator for them. DU seems to be a pattern team -- one year they "peak", the next year they "valley" -- I expect them to have a better finish than last year -- top 5 -- for no other reason than it'd be a "peak" year in the cycle. No clue about St Cloud. It'll be interesting to see how to Wisconsin responds to 1) the second year under the Eaves' regime and 2) life without Alex Levitt -- he isn't coming back is he? where will he be next year? Michigan Tech -- new coach -- new system? same results as Wisconsin last year? UAA -- is the curse over? There is no way that last year is repeated, but can they make up any ground on any of the other 9 teams? In no particular order: Home ice for playoffs: UMN, UMD, Denver, UND Away for playoffs: UAA, MT, StC, UW Toss up: CC and MSU-M teams 3-8 probably pretty tight in the standings ..... but what do I know ... Last year (pre-season) I had Denver and CC as 1 & 2 and Mankato #10 -- I sucked, so maybe I should pick UND #10 and the gophers #1 to use reverse logic/wishful thinking!?!?!?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superman0099 Posted June 5, 2003 Share Posted June 5, 2003 1) the second year under the Eaves' regime and 2) life without Alex Levitt -- he isn't coming back is he? where will he be next year? Alex Leavitt will be joining the WHL next season: Leavitt to play for Broncos. Date Posted: Mon Jun 02 06:59:54 CST 2003 By: Tom Varley Alex Leavitt, a 19 year old from Edmonton, Alberta recently announced that he will be joining the Swift Current Broncos of the WHL next season. Leavitt who accumulated 13 goals and 39 points in 67 games in the NCAA will be an immediate hit in the WHL. Leavitt currently on the scales reads 5'11'' and 170 pounds. It has seemed that over the last few seasons that any player who has left the NCAA for the WHL has had an immediate impact. Chuck Kobasew who left Boston College for Kelowna became one of the top scorers in the league. Bryan Nathe when he left the NCAA became a top defencmen for the Brandon Wheat Kings. And Duncan Keith left Michigan State for Kelowna became top 5 defencmen in the WHL. Leavitt, who was originally drafted by the Broncos in the 1999 WHL Bantam Draft, will immediately be thrust into the Broncos top 2 lines where he will be expected to lead a very young offence. Leavitt for made his mark on the hockey scene, when he joined the Notre Dame Hounds. He first started off playing Bantam AAA and Midget AAA, but he came into his own playing Junior A for the Hounds. In his first season in the SJHL, the 16 year old scored 26 goals and 58 points to lead the team in scoring. He was named the teams Most Valuable Player and was the SJHL?s rookie of the year. At only 17, Leavitt moved down to the University of Wisconsin. Leavitt is still expected to be drafted this season. He is also expected to have a shot at making the 2003-2004 Under-21 Canadian World Junior Team. Leavitt already has experience on the international stage when he suited up for Canada at the Under-18 Six Nations Cup. Leavitt was at the center of a major controversy this season at Wisconsin. In late February the the University of Wisconsin came down with a decision that head coach Mike Eaves would remain their head coach, even in light of relevations that alledged he used physical force in confrontation with Leavitt, after a a conditional agreement was reached by all parties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sprig Posted June 6, 2003 Share Posted June 6, 2003 Wonder what happened to the Notre Dame Hound pipeline to the Sioux? Almost the entire early 80's team roster played there in juniors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted June 6, 2003 Share Posted June 6, 2003 Wonder what happened to the Notre Dame Hound pipeline to the Sioux? Almost the entire early 80's team roster played there in juniors. I think that had to do with Gino G. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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