UND92,96

Thanks for the coverage you give to dII football, and to UND in particular, Jeff! Since we are hoping for a good crowd (hopefully more than 10,000), I'm kind of hoping it's not going to be televised locally. I think that televising the games against St. Cloud and UNO kept the crowds down by a few thousand earlier this year. A crowd similar to the one for the UC-Davis game in 2001 would certainly be nice, both in terms of numbers and volume.

I don't recall exactly which team that guy normally covers, but I know he's an NSIC guy so it's probably no surprise that he would pick the top-ranked team from the midwest region as the favorite. Judging by how low the Sioux have been ranked in the national polls all year, I doubt very much too many people around the country would pick UND as a favorite. Personally, I'd pick Saginaw Valley and North Alabama as favorites. That should officially be the kiss of death for those two teams.

Pitt St. is still a primarily option-type team, although they do seem to throw a bit more than they did in 2001. They have the same quarterback as 2001 (he was a freshman then), and he's also their leading rusher. UND will need to hit the quarterback early and often and make him pitch the ball. It's not unlike playing NDSU when they ran the veer. Defensively, Pitt St. has put up good numbers, although NW Mo. St. was able to throw for more than 300 yards against them yesterday. I suspect that as usual, the Sioux will need to throw the ball well to score points. Fortunately, Bowenkamp and company have been up to the task most of the year. I also think the Sioux have an advantage in the all-important kicking game. Pitt St. lost yesterday in large part due to their kicker missing an extra point and having a fairly short field goal blocked.

It will be interesting to see if the NCAA tinkers with the strength of schedule values after this year to avoid another situation like what has occurred in the East. The committee's hands are somewhat tied, but if Grand Valley really lays the smack down on Bentley as expected, it makes a mockery of the whole process. It is virtually impossible to really know how good (or bad) Bentley is until next Saturday since they haven't played anybody, but I think most people expect that they are probably going to be beaten very, very badly. Can anyone confirm whether the NE-10 (Bentley's conference) is indeed a non-scholarship dII conference?

The higher seed hosts, unless there is some sort of conflict with the venue or the playing surface is unplayable.

The East Region is nuts. Can you imagine how ticked off the IUP team and its fans must be? A 10-1 record and a top-10 national ranking and they didn't get in! And how about defending champion Grand Valley St. with a 10-1 record having to travel to Bentley, who I believe is a non-scholarship program!

It's official: Pitt St. at UND Emporia St. at Winona St.

I agree that in terms of how good the teams actually are, the NCC is deserving of at least two bids. In fact, I would argue that UND, NDSU, UNO, St. Cloud St. and SDSU would all give pretty much anybody in the country all they could handle. However, having that third loss is likely going to doom NDSU, just as it will UNO. Also, just one minor correction: in 2001, the MIAA only had one team--Pitt St.--get a bid. UND, UNO and Winona were the others.

The attendance for the NDSU-Concordia SP game yesterday was 7,045. It will be interesting to see if this is going to be indicative of how a late-season game will draw when there's little or nothing on the line. Granted, Concordia-SP is not a big-name opponent, but on the other hand there was still potentially something to play for for NDSU yesterday. Will a late-season game against St. Mary's (CA) or Southern Utah draw much better? I guess we'll find out.

Roger seemed quite confident about home field when he was interviewed on the hockey post-game show last night, for whatever that's worth.

To me, the saddest part isn't that we lost to Bemidji St. The saddest part is that I'm no longer surprised when we lose to a team like Bemidji St.

I would acknowledge that your interpretation is not unreasonable considering the language used. However, a few things make me think that it is the overall strength of schedule index (all games included) that is used. First, Gene Taylor acknowledged on the radio last week that even if Winona would have lost today, they still would have had a strength of schedule advantage over NDSU. However, had Winona lost today, their s.o.s. would have been 10.0, which is of course lower than NDSU's division II-only strength of schedule. In all the interviews I've heard with him in the past few weeks, it's never been discussed that there are two different strengths of schedule--one including only division II games and one including all games. If there were a division II-only s.o.s., one would assume that he would have been emphasizing that as a potential NDSU advantage since it would do away with the relatively low values given for the Montana win and the UC-Davis loss. Also, on the UND hockey post-game show Roger Thomas was interviewed by Scott Hennen. RT was on the committee for several years and knows how the process works. He specifically mentioned how I-AA games aren't particularly helpful as the NCAA wants to provide an incentive for dII teams to play dII opponents. It wouldn't be much of a disincentive if non-dII games were only going to affect the strength of schedule index in a tie-breaker situation. I imagine Taylor will shed some light on this topic one way or the other in the next day or so.

While I don't agree with how the NCAA has chosen to calculate strength of schedule, I don't see how a committee can possibly choose to disregard it and award more credit for playing I-AA teams than what the rules state. Looking at the criteria objectively, using strength of schedule as that term is defined, NDSU is not going to make it. If they do, then Taylor is one hell of a lobbyist since nearly everybody, myself included, assumed NDSU was out after the St. Cloud loss.

Don't forget about the national committee, which has veto power over the regional committees. The midwest rep on the committee is from Northwest Missouri State. If you haven't read the latest south region column at d2football.com regarding what the national committee can do, you should read it. Also, there will still be six voting members on the committee. When somebody has a conflict, there's a replacement. For the NCC, Mike Marcil will replace Taylor.

I think what you're disregarding is the fact that while you or I would agree that a win over Montana is far more impressive than a win over Fort Hays St., for example, it is NOT so as strength of schedule is calculated by the NCAA. These are the actual strength of schedule numbers for the four teams who have a legitimate case to be the other two teams in the playoffs: Pitt St. 10.09 Emporia St. 10.0 NDSU 9.636 Central Mo. 9.18 If s.o.s. is as important as we're lead to believe, NDSU is out because they not only are behind Pitt St. and Emporia is that regard, but obviously they also have a worse overall record. Not to mention the whole political issue with a 3-loss team getting in over a 2-loss team from conferences of comparable strength. I'm not saying it's impossible for NDSU to get in, but they have an awful lot going against them.

To the best of my knowledge, it would be unprecedented for a 3-loss NCC team to get in over a 2-loss MIAA team. I don't expect that it will happen this year, either. There are six members of the committee (2 from each of the conferences), and I would assume that the NSIC reps are the wild cards. Since the NSIC is all too familiar with being bumped in favor of a team with a worse record, I would think they'd be more sympathetic to Pitt St., Central Mo. or Emporia than for NDSU. I'm not sure which two among Pitt St., Emporia and Central Mo. are going to be in, but I think two of them are in and NDSU will be on the outside looking in. Remember also that Pitt St. has a pretty high strength of schedule index and will own a common opponent advantage over NDSU since they beat St. Cloud.

I'm sure many of you have heard this story, but for those who haven't, here it is: Prior to 2001, the NSIC had never received a playoff bid. It was widely assumed that the only way they had even a prayer was if one of their teams went undefeated, and even then it was far from a sure thing that a playoff bid would be awarded. At the end of the regular season in 2001, the regional committee selected UND, Pitt St., UNO and Central Missouri for the playoffs. However, the national committee overruled the regional committee and replaced Central Missouri, the second-place team from the MIAA, with Winona St., the champion of the NSIC. Winona was 10-1 during the regular season, with its one loss being a lop-sided one to USD. USD finished last in the NCC that year. Central Missouri had finished 9-2 during the regular season. Last year, the decision was easier because I believe UMD was undefeated during the regular season. They made a good showing with a narrow loss at number one seed NW Mo. St. It's up to each individual to decide whether what happened in 2001 set some sort of precedent or not, but it would appear to me that there's a pretty good chance that the NSIC team with the best overall resume will be selected for the playoffs over any NCC or MIAA team which has a worse overall record. Of course, with so many selection criteria, it's not difficult to make a case that an MIAA or NCC team may be more deserving. But in the end, I believe that the fact that NSIC teams have made a decent showing (and a good showing last year) in the playoffs the past two years has significantly bolstered their position, especially in the eyes of the national committee. Keep in mind that these guys seem to love including teams from the less well-funded conferences like the West Virginia league, the NE-10 (where Bentley plays--non-scholarship) and the NSIC. Of course, Winona takes away all doubt if they win on Saturday as they're probably expected to do, but even if they lose, don't be shocked in they--or possibly UMD--get in anyway. If a 10-1 NSIC team can get in over a 9-2 MIAA team, it's probably not much of a stretch to expect a 9-2 NSIC team to get in over an 8-3 NCC team, especially considering the pervasive attitude of some on the national committee who feel the smaller conferences should be represented if at all possible.

Rich Glas was on the Coaches' Show on 1440 A.M. last night with Swygman and Hennessy. He didn't sound overly optimistic about the season. It sounds like they have a long, long way to go. I'm not very confident since it sounds like the team has some real defensive deficiencies. This probably wasn't the best year to agree to play on the road at two DAC-10 schools. Of course, I don't believe it's wise EVER to agree to travel to a lower division school as it's a no-win situation. On the bright side, Roebuck did sound pretty enthusiastic about the womens' team. He said they will really get up and down the court. It sounds like the starting line-up will be Mahlum at the point, Perrizo at the 2, Leighton at the 3, Boese at the 4, and Demaine at the 5. Carissa Jahner, Jami Glick, Kelsey Maffin, Hausauer and perhaps Elias will be the primary bench players. As none of the other freshmen were mentioned (Werdell, Sannes or Draayer), I suspect some or all of them may be red-shirting.

It sounds like it could have been the infamous JBB! I think most the Bison fans who post on this board are pretty reasonable and respectful. However, having listened to the radio call-in shows on WDAY and KFGO on a fairly regular basis, it would appear on the surface that there are more NDSU fans who have an irrational hatred of UND than there are UND fans with an irrational hatred of NDSU. Obviously the rivalry is such that there is going to be a certain amount of animosity, but it shouldn't get to the level where supposed adults are acting like 9-year-olds.

I was looking at that, also. But I am convinced that no matter how the various selection criteria come out, the bottom line is that I don't believe the national committee--which can and sometimes does veto the regional committees--will allow the NSIC to be shut out UNLESS there are four NCC/MIAA teams who all have a BETTER overall record than the top NSIC team. And by top NSIC team, I think that can mean either the conference champion or the team with the best overall resume. It's not necessarily fair, but the NSIC is probably going to get a bid every year from now on unless there is a situation where you have four NCC/MIAA teams with 9-1 or 10-1 records and the top NSIC team is at 8-3 or perhaps even 9-2. Since that can't happen this year, I fully expect Winona--or possibly even UMD despite their very poor strength of schedule index--to get in. Even Concordia still has an outside chance if they were to pull the huge upset and UMD were to defeat Winona. EDIT: I forgot about the expanded playoff field and the change in region make-up starting next year. With six bids instead of four, there's probably no chance at all for the NSIC to be shut out again starting next year.

I'm still not sure how much weight the strength of schedule index really merits, but for what it's worth, Winona has already clinched a higher s.o.s. index than NDSU regardless of what happens on Saturday, not to mention a better overall record. Winona currently has a 10.3, and would still have a 10.0 even if they were to lose to UMD. NDSU apparently can't finish with a higher s.o.s. than 9.64. NDSU is at number five more out of default than as some sort of an indication that they are on the verge of getting into the playoffs with a loss by Winona, Pitt St. or Emporia. And you can pretty much count on the fact that the national committee will override any attempt to keep an NSIC team out of the playoffs. It's been done before. Hallstrom, Michaels and Gene Taylor are on WDAY radio right now trying to talk themselves into the idea that NDSU still has a somewhat realistic chance.

There really wasn't anybody who had much of a case for jumping over them since Central Mo. lost and NDSU owns a head-to-head win over UNO. I think the committee has kind of put itself in a potentially awkward position regarding the NSIC, however. If UMD wins, they'll probably end up jumping all the way up to number 4 (or else the national committee will do it for them like they supposedly did in 2001 with Winona getting the nod over Central Mo.) I can almost guarantee that the NSIC will get a bid one way or the other.

Again, not much change from the past few weeks: Midwest 1. North Dakota (9-1) 2. Emporia State (9-1) 3. Winona State (9-1) 4. Pittsburg State (9-1) 5. North Dakota State (7-3) 6. Central Missouri State (8-2) 7. Nebraska-Omaha (8-3) 8. Minnesota Duluth (8-2) 9. Concordia-St. Paul (8-2) 10. Missouri Western State (7-3)

I should have been clearer in my previous post. I meant that IF Irvin doesn't play any more this year, he'd be eligible for a medical hardship year. Assuming he was healthy enough to play, I imagine he'd have to decide whether he would prefer to play in the playoffs this year, or come back for an entire year next season. He may not come back regardless if he's on schedule to graduate.