UND92,96

I mean no offense to you personally, but that's a pretty outlandish statement. If everybody who chooses to go to this game is an alleged rich person because they are paying anywhere from $10.50 (senior citizen price) to $27.50 for a ticket, what does that make someone who goes to an NFL, NBA or NHL game, or a big-name concert? Those ticket prices are generally more than $27.50. I understand the frustration with rising ticket prices, but I don't think there's any reason to attack or generalize those of us who do go to the games.

That will probably be the deciding factor in the game--whether NDSU can run on the Sioux. If they can't, then UND has an excellent chance to win. It has been a number of years since NDSU has really run successfully against the Sioux. It really never happened with Gordon running ball (no 100 yard games and no td's), which is quite remarkable when you think about it. And I'm not sure that the Bison offense is really any better than it was during the Babich era, excluding last year, although it does seem to be more diversified. I would assume that the Sioux will make it a priority to stop the run and make Stauss beat them. Considering the relative struggles of the NDSU offense for much of this year, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they have problems running the ball on UND. UND hasn't run the ball successfully against pretty much anyone, although they have shown the ability to win anyway. If the passing game is working, however, it may open up some running lanes.

I too have been critical of Bowenkamp, and certainly he hasn't been consistent considering his performance in most of the Augie game and in the first half of the St. Cloud game. But if we're going to be critical of him when he plays poorly, we really should give him some credit when he plays well. He completed 23 of 37 passes against SDSU for 284 yards with two touchdowns and no int's. That's pretty good. Let's also remember that he's not the one calling all those screen passes. I'm not offering these numbers in an attempt to denigrate Tony Stauss, but rather to show how Bowenkamp has compared to the far more highly-touted Stauss thus far: Overall JB 61% completion percentage, 9 touchdowns, 2 int's TS 67% completion percentage, 2 touchdowns, 3 int's NCC only JB 57.5% completion percentage, 3 touchdowns, 1 int TS 61.5% completion percentage, 1 touchdown, 2 int's I really think that if Mussman would open up the playcalling in the first half, similiar to what was being run in the second halves against St. Cloud and SDSU, the running game would actually be far more effective. Look at St. Cloud as an example. Yes, Birkel is a good back, but they were able to run pretty well against the outstanding run defense of UND in the second quarter with their backup running back, in large part due to the threat of the downfield pass. It's a case of the pass setting up the run instead of vice versa.

Here's the new poll: Midwest 1. Pittsburg State (6-0) 2. North Dakota State (5-1) 3. North Dakota (5-1) 4. Winona State (6-1) 5. St. Cloud State (5-2) 6. Nebraska-Omaha (5-2) 7. Emporia State (5-1) 8. Concordia-St. Paul (5-1) 9. Northern State (5-1) 10. Central Missouri State (5-1) Wow, have things changed from just a few years ago. Who would have thought that an NSIC team could be ranked in the top four one week removed from a loss? It's looking like it will be a battle between the NCC and the MIAA to see who gets a second team in, because unless they lose again, Winona is in for sure. Fortunately, the NCC seems to have the inside track since both Emporia and Central Mo. are now ranked pretty low and still have to play Pitt St.

Under the circumstances, it's probably not a surprise to many people. I feel bad for Wilson since he waited so long to get his chance, then gets hurt on the first possession of the first game he starts. That may have been his one window of opportunity to play. Bowenkamp runs hot and cold so he might do great or he might play like Graig Gorder did in the 2001 Sioux-Bison game.

*Sigh*... Did you even read my posts? I most certainly did NOT say any single UND receiver is some sort of superstar. And after watching Babich in high school and last year, I hardly think I'm the only one who has questioned his ability. I suspect that many NDSU fans were questioning why he was even on the team last year. If he's improved this year, more power to him. But in my completely insignificant opinion, he should be attacked until it's clear that he's up to the challenge. As for Krause, he's a nice player and has been mentioned as a possible late-round pick, but drafted in the first two rounds? Get real. David Kircus of Grand Valley State had unbelievable college stats in a sophisticated passing offense, good size and excellent speed and he wasn't drafted until the late rounds. And Krause is 6'3", not 6'5". I've never seen either his speed or vertical posted anywhere, but I'm going way out on a limb and speculating that he doesn't run a 4.3 or have a 40" vertical.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with anything you've said, but let's not forget that aside from last week against UNO, NDSU's offense has been pretty underwhelming this year. They managed just 20 points against a terrible MSU-Mankato team, and the offense put up just 17 at home against SDSU (the other td being by the defense). NDSU will likely have just as much trouble scoring on the Sioux as vice versa, and if they were to fall behind early it will extremely difficult for them, as well. With that being said, certainly UND has to avoid falling way behind early. The good news is probably that NDSU hasn't done much of anything offensively in the first quarter of games this year. In fact, I believe prior to last week, they hadn't scored a point in the first quarter. Is it really any coincidence that the past two weeks, the Sioux offense only came to life in the second half after falling way behind? It would appear that the only way the playcalling gets aggressive is when there's nothing to lose. I'm not saying that UND should treat the whole game like a two-minute drill, but why not get a little aggressive in the first half, too? I think that anyone who saw the SCSU game knows that this offense can be explosive, but not by running between the tackles and throwing bubble screens--the usual first half scheme. The strength of the Sioux offense is throwing the ball and spreading it around amongst Stattleman, Ahlers, Lueck, Johnson and Grossman, with hopefully some short passes to the tight ends and Wisthoff out of the backfield. Hopefully Lennon's decision to go for the two-point conversion and the win against SDSU is a sign of a shift away from the usual ultra-conservative nature of the UND offense. This year's offensive personnel simply isn't capable of winning by being a primarily running team.

The difference, to me, is that UNO is not a true passing team. I still consider them a running team that is able to complete passes because most teams cheat to stop the run. NDSU didn't have to cheat, although UNO did get some rushing yards. Krause has good numbers, but he is by far their best receiver and I suspect that there was a good deal of doubling of him. At least, that's what I would do as a defensive coordinator. Essler is a nice player at free safety, but until I see Babich, or Walter if he's in there, consistently cover somebody one-on-one with my own eyes, I am a skeptic. The Sioux don't rely on any one receiver, which makes doubling more difficult, and I suspect that there will be plenty of one-on-one opportunities. Whether those opportunites are won by the offense or defense remains to be seen, but I do think that an offense with a number of tall and capable receivers will be able to win its share of those battles.

I'm sure you're probably correct, and really it's the same with the UND defense. Running against the Sioux is generally pretty futile, but some teams have been able to get yards through the air. I guess the difference is that UND has also given up points via the air, at least in the first halves of the past two games. I still would try to exploit NDSU's corners, though. I'll be the first to admit if I'm wrong, but I'm not convinced that Babich and company are any better than average at best.

It's no secret that UND has not run the ball very successfully this year, and that NDSU has done a very good job of stopping the run. It's also clear that UND can throw the ball quite well, and that NDSU has been thrown upon by some teams with success. Therefore, I would look for the Sioux to run the ball just enough to keep the defense honest. If the Sioux are going to score enough points to win, it will be via the pass. I would throw at NDSU corner Bobby Babich at every opportunity. He's not tall, and he's not particularly fast by NCC corner standards. A Babich-on-Lueck matchup, in particular, would appear to be a big advantage for UND. I imagine NDSU will really try to get after the quarterback, so believe it or not a traditional screen pass (NOT a bubble screen) may be effective in slowing down the pass rush. Another interesting question will be whether NDSU tries to throw more often than they have been. Again, it's no secret that UND has been thrown upon, but that the Sioux have done a nice job of stopping the run with the exception of the first half against SCSU. Thus far, NDSU has been primarily a running team. I don't believe the Bison will be able to make a living running the ball against the Sioux (although obviously that remains to be seen), so the play of Tony Stauss will be a key. He is apparently throwing mostly 0-to-5 yard passes, so his completion percentage is good, but his yardage and touchdowns are not. I haven't seen him play aside from the second half against Montana, so I don't know how much he has been asked to throw downfield, but I would expect that he may have to on Saturday. Although many, and perhaps most impartial observers would probably consider NDSU a favorite in this game, I do like UND's chances. This will be NDSU's first true road test since the second game of the year, UND does seem to match up pretty well with what NDSU likes to do offensively, and the Sioux offense can possibly exploit what is arguably a Bison weakness by throwing the ball. I expect a low-scoring game that will probably be decided by a field goal either way.

This has been a strange series over the past dozen-or-so years. At home, UND has won by an average of 27 points since 1990 and is 6-0. However, at Brookings, UND is just 4-3 since 1990, and each of the losses occurred in years where the Sioux were considered a heavy favorite, i.e. the NCC title and playoff semi-final year of 1993, the Callahan/Tibesar, et al. senior year of 1996, and the NCC title year of 1999. If the Sioux can play defense as they did against Augie and in the second half against St. Cloud, and don't turn the ball over, I like our chances. If the defense struggles and/or there is more than one turnover, then a win is probably unlikely. This is UND's toughest road NCC game, so a win would be huge.

The decision has been made: Wilson is starting against SDSU.

I believe The Sicatoka's comment was tongue-in-cheek and not directed at anyone in particular. I think this topic has officially been beaten to death, but for the record UND's non-conference opponents have a combined record of 8-7 thus far--hardly a disgrace. Even UMC managed to hammer Southwest State last week so it's not even as though UND played the worst team in the NSIC. The problem with proclaiming anyone's schedule as strong or weak before or early in a season is that we have no way of really knowing until probably near the end of the year which opponents were truly good and which were not. As it stands right now, it appears that UND played one pretty good team (Mesa is ranked second in its region for now), one average team (Newberry is 2-2), and one poor team. All in all, probably not as bad is most thought prior to the season. And clearly, all signs point to a stronger schedule in the near future.

Here's the real poll: Midwest 1. Pittsburg State (5-0) 2. Emporia State (5-0) 3. Nebraska-Omaha (5-1) 4. North Dakota State (4-1) 5. North Dakota (4-1) 6. Winona State (5-1) 7. Central Missouri State (5-0) 8. St. Cloud State (4-2) 9. Concordia-St. Paul (4-1) 10. Northern State (4-1) I'm very surprised by how low Central Missouri is ranked, and shocked by Winona being ahead of Concordia-SP (and Central Mo). Either my strength of schedule calculations were way off, or Winona's ranking makes absolutely no sense at all. But at least UND is ranked higher than I anticipated.

I agree with basically everything you said, but I do believe that Bowenkamp is currently a 5th year junior, so after this year he will have already had essentially a full career in the program. True, he will have the opportunity to come back for a 6th year if he so chooses, but I imagine that may depend in large part on whether he is on schedule to graduate this spring or not. Unless he again earns the starting job this season and does well, I agree that most likely the staff will be looking to whomever emerges among Groeschl, Manke and Bellmore as the starter next season. I am a firm believer that in this day and age, a quarterback needs to be mobile, and unfortunately Bowenkamp does not fit into that mold although he does supposedly have good straight-ahead speed. I'm not sure on Bellmore as I haven't seen him play except for briefly in the spring game, but both Groeschl and Manke run very well.

Your points are all well-taken, but what sticks out to me is that in the first 6 quarters of the NCC season, all at home, Bowenkamp has directed the offense to exactly zero touchdowns. While I wouldn't put all the blame on the quarterback, certainly he must bear a good deal of the responsibility. Whether Wilson will be consistent or not is a complete unknown, but it certainly appears that he has earned the right to show what he can do as a starter on a trial basis. I look at this situation far differently than if we had a proven starter, i.e. Kelby Klosterman. I wouldn't be anywhere near as quick to bench him. But Bowenkamp has been very inconsistent during his career as a starter, and I would have to think that his confidence must be shaken at this point. If he can't produce at home, particularly against a relatively mediocre defense like Augie's, I wouldn't expect much more from him on the road against a better SDSU team. Let's see if Wilson's hot-hand can continue.

While I do understand HOW strength of schedule is calculated (I think), I'm a little confused as to exactly how it's used. Is it the primary criteria, or just one of several? The NCAA handbook listed on the NCAA website is the 2002 edition, so if the criteria have changed, I'm not sure how. In any event, I attempted to calculate the current s.o.s. index for each of the probable ranked teams. Keep in mind that ONLY games against dII opponents count when calculating s.o.s. index, so NDSU's number is based ONLY on games against Tusculum, SDSU and MSU-Mankato. 1. NDSU (6.66) 2. Emporia St. (6.4) 3. (tie) Central Missouri St. (6.25) Concordia-SP (6.25) 5. Pitt St. (6.2) 6. UNO (6.16) 7. (tie) UND (6.0) SCSU (6.0) Winona St. (6.0) 10. Northern St. (5.75) My earlier predictions didn't take into account these numbers. As most people would probably agree, relying purely on s.o.s. can cause some pretty absurd results, i.e. Concordia-SP tied for third and Pitt St. in fifth. FWIW, I don't see how Winona could be ranked ahead of Concordia since they have the same record, Concordia's s.o.s. is higher, and whether it's "officially" a primary criteria or not, I have to think that head-to-head results will still mean something.

The only poll that means anything is supposed to come out tomorrow for the first time this year. My GUESS is that the poll will look something like this: 1. Pitt St. 2. Central Mo. 3. UNO 4. NDSU 5. Emporia St. 6. UND 7. St. Cloud 8. Concordia-SP 9. Winona St. 10. Northern St. Winona St.'s loss yesterday really threw a wrench into things. They likely would have been ranked third or fourth. Now, who knows? They really can't be ranked ahead of Concordia, who beat them yesterday, since they both have one loss. Concordia lost to USD, which is probably one of the weaker teams in the NCC, so they can't really be ranked very high, either. St. Cloud has two losses, but both were on the road against quality opponents. It should be interesting...

I also have been baffled as to why there are not more passes thrown to the tight ends. For that matter, an occasional 5 to 10 yard pass to Wisthoff may be a good idea, as well. Yesterday's catch by Kussler was the first TE reception since UMC. If it's zone coverage, the tight end should always be able to find a soft spot. If it's man coverage, I would think Mielke's speed (although perhaps not the other tight ends) should be good enough to be able to beat a linebacker trying to cover him.

IMO, starting Wilson next week is the obvious decision. Bowenkamp doesn't seem to make very good decisions, and he does not have much of any ability to elude the pass rush or scramble for yards. Wilson is not exactly a sprinter, but he did show relatively quick feet yesterday, and was able to elude the rush several times and at least get back to the line of scrimmage. Plus, he just seems more fiery and possibly more of a leader than is Bowenkamp.

Wow, am I glad I didn't leave at halftime! I have to admit that at halftime, I was thinking to myself that it was like the end of the Behrns era/early Thomas era all over again. It was an equally terrible performance by the offense and defense. But it was truly an incredible turnaround in the second half. I told a friend of mine at halftime that all we needed was Frank Reich to come in at qb--referring to the famous comeback by the Bills against the Oilers in that playoff game in the early 90's. It turns out that Wilson played the Reich role perfectly! I have to eat crow with regard to Wilson because prior to this game, I didn't see the logic of having a seldom-used 6th year senior as the backup quarterback instead of an up-and-coming freshman. Obviously, I was wrong. Wilson can play. Great job, guys! Now if we could only get rid of the bubble screens/0 yard passes to the wide-outs and running backs, I would be really happy! BTW, kudos to Randy Hedberg and staff for an incredible turnaround in the fortunes of the SCSU football program. A few years back, that was a struggling program. Now, they are clearly one of the best in the league and really seem to be a classy group. Best of luck to them the rest of the year.

The Sioux get a verbal commitment for the 2004-05 season: link