UND92,96

UND lost to Mary tonight 86-54. No, that is not a typographical error. This is truly a new low. At this point, I'm not sure this team will win a single NCC game, and a 20-plus loss season appears likely. Aside from home games against Morris, Crookston and Bemidji, there aren't many games on the schedule where this team could possibly be considered a favorite. I believe Roger Thomas has a serious decision to make in the very near future. With the resources and history of basketball at UND, I don't believe there's any excuse for the program to have sunk this low.

Another possible Pitt St. weakness: turnovers. 11 int's thrown and 13 lost fumbles.

On the coaches' show on 1440 A.M. tonight, a caller asked about whether the game will be televised locally. Dale Lennon wouldn't come right out and say it, but it sounded like it would be. I just hope this doesn't keep the attendance down.

I would say that UND's strengths are: 1. Throwing the ball. Bowenkamp has a pretty strong arm and has completed 65% of his passes. The top three receivers are all at least 6'2", and are pretty sure-handed. Lueck is an exceptional athlete and a big-play threat. The offensive line has given up just four sacks, or about 1 out of every 85 passing plays. 2. Stopping the run. With the exception of the UNO game, this has generally been good. Not as good as 2001, of course, but still pretty good. NDSU had a good running game but was only able to run for about 75 yards against UND. The Sioux rotate a lot of people in the front seven and probably won't wear down as the game goes along due to all the substitutions. 3. Solid kicker. He's missed some field goals (has made 12 out of 20 on the year) but he's made some clutch ones to win games and has made all of his extra points. 4. Not penalized very much. This was a problem early on, but in the end UND was the least-penalized team in the NCC. Weaknesses: 1. Running the ball. It's been effective against poor teams like MSU-Mankato, but generally this has been a problem. But if the passing game is as effective as it normally is, 75 yards rushing is probably enough to keep the defense honest. UND is not a team that can just line up and run the ball down the throat of a good defense. 2. Stopping the pass. Some of this has been towards the end of games which really weren't close, but some big plays have been given up against a number of teams. The pass rush isn't as good as it was two years ago and this makes the db's jobs more difficult. This year, UND games have tended to be pretty close. I wouldn't expect much of a margin of victory for either team. The home field advantage should be pretty significant for UND, and I am thinking that Pitt St.'s lack of a consistent kicking game could be a problem for them, particularly in a close game as this one quite likely will be. The NCC has fared pretty well against the MIAA in the playoffs recently, as the past three years have all had an NCC rep come out of this region. Hopefully for us, that trend continues this year.

I believe a Pittsburg-area station is covering it. That may be something to check into, also.

I would like our chances if the Sioux defense can hold Philpot to numbers similar to what NW Mo. St. held him to last Saturday: RUSHING: Pittsburg State-Philpot,Neal 27-86. PASSING: Pittsburg State-Philpot,Neal 6-16-0-87.

What I find interesting about Philpot's passing numbers is that he's averaging about 230 yards per game despite only throwing about 15 times a game. He's also only completing about 48% of his passes, which makes me think that when they do throw, it's likely to be a deep ball. Their top receiver is only 5'7", which maybe doesn't mean much but hopefully it will prevent a similiar situation to what happened against UNO with its big receivers catching lob passes. With regard to kicking, their kicker has missed eight extra points and is just 3 of 8 on field goals this year.

South Dakota has fired coach John Austin. link This probably wasn't much of a surprise. There's a new a.d., USD has really struggled the past few years, and Austin really only had one decent season during his tenure.

The final poll: Midwest 1. North Dakota (9-1) 2. Winona State (10-1) 3. Emporia State (9-2) 4. Pittsburg State (9-2) 5. North Dakota State (8-3) 6. Central Missouri State (9-2) 7. Nebraska-Omaha (8-3) 8. Missouri Western State (8-3) 9. Northwest Missouri State (8-3) 10. Minnesota Duluth (8-3)

I would agree that the biggest difference between the 2001 and 2003 teams is that the 2001 defense was dominating and the 2003 defense is inconsistent. I do think the defense will be dominant in another year or two considering that there are 12-15 freshmen and sophomores who are playing a lot right now. With regard to Glas, he has been up and down but he has come through in the clutch. Peterka was a great kicker, but I do recall him getting both of his field goal attempts blocked against UC-Davis, and making just 1 of 4 against Grand Valley St. The advantage Glas has is that he gets much better elevation on his field goal attempts so they are not as easy to block as Peterka's were. I actually think this year's offense may be more explosive than the 2001 team was. In 2001, the running game was much better than it is now, but the lack of a consistent running game has forced the play-calling to open up a bit this year. The receiving corps this year is excellent, and Bowenkamp has done a nice job of spreading the ball around. This year's offensive line has also done an excellent job of pass blocking considering how few sacks have been given up. This year's team can run the ball just enough, and appears to be able to throw for close to 300 yards against nearly anybody. With all that having been said, I would be very surprised if the Sioux were able to get to Florence. I would be extremely happy with a couple of wins. Although Pitt St. is a very good team, I would be disappointed with a first round loss considering we have the home field advantage and a lot of momentum.

Thanks for the coverage you give to dII football, and to UND in particular, Jeff! Since we are hoping for a good crowd (hopefully more than 10,000), I'm kind of hoping it's not going to be televised locally. I think that televising the games against St. Cloud and UNO kept the crowds down by a few thousand earlier this year. A crowd similar to the one for the UC-Davis game in 2001 would certainly be nice, both in terms of numbers and volume.

I don't recall exactly which team that guy normally covers, but I know he's an NSIC guy so it's probably no surprise that he would pick the top-ranked team from the midwest region as the favorite. Judging by how low the Sioux have been ranked in the national polls all year, I doubt very much too many people around the country would pick UND as a favorite. Personally, I'd pick Saginaw Valley and North Alabama as favorites. That should officially be the kiss of death for those two teams.

Pitt St. is still a primarily option-type team, although they do seem to throw a bit more than they did in 2001. They have the same quarterback as 2001 (he was a freshman then), and he's also their leading rusher. UND will need to hit the quarterback early and often and make him pitch the ball. It's not unlike playing NDSU when they ran the veer. Defensively, Pitt St. has put up good numbers, although NW Mo. St. was able to throw for more than 300 yards against them yesterday. I suspect that as usual, the Sioux will need to throw the ball well to score points. Fortunately, Bowenkamp and company have been up to the task most of the year. I also think the Sioux have an advantage in the all-important kicking game. Pitt St. lost yesterday in large part due to their kicker missing an extra point and having a fairly short field goal blocked.

It will be interesting to see if the NCAA tinkers with the strength of schedule values after this year to avoid another situation like what has occurred in the East. The committee's hands are somewhat tied, but if Grand Valley really lays the smack down on Bentley as expected, it makes a mockery of the whole process. It is virtually impossible to really know how good (or bad) Bentley is until next Saturday since they haven't played anybody, but I think most people expect that they are probably going to be beaten very, very badly. Can anyone confirm whether the NE-10 (Bentley's conference) is indeed a non-scholarship dII conference?

The higher seed hosts, unless there is some sort of conflict with the venue or the playing surface is unplayable.

The East Region is nuts. Can you imagine how ticked off the IUP team and its fans must be? A 10-1 record and a top-10 national ranking and they didn't get in! And how about defending champion Grand Valley St. with a 10-1 record having to travel to Bentley, who I believe is a non-scholarship program!

It's official: Pitt St. at UND Emporia St. at Winona St.

I agree that in terms of how good the teams actually are, the NCC is deserving of at least two bids. In fact, I would argue that UND, NDSU, UNO, St. Cloud St. and SDSU would all give pretty much anybody in the country all they could handle. However, having that third loss is likely going to doom NDSU, just as it will UNO. Also, just one minor correction: in 2001, the MIAA only had one team--Pitt St.--get a bid. UND, UNO and Winona were the others.

The attendance for the NDSU-Concordia SP game yesterday was 7,045. It will be interesting to see if this is going to be indicative of how a late-season game will draw when there's little or nothing on the line. Granted, Concordia-SP is not a big-name opponent, but on the other hand there was still potentially something to play for for NDSU yesterday. Will a late-season game against St. Mary's (CA) or Southern Utah draw much better? I guess we'll find out.

Roger seemed quite confident about home field when he was interviewed on the hockey post-game show last night, for whatever that's worth.

To me, the saddest part isn't that we lost to Bemidji St. The saddest part is that I'm no longer surprised when we lose to a team like Bemidji St.

I would acknowledge that your interpretation is not unreasonable considering the language used. However, a few things make me think that it is the overall strength of schedule index (all games included) that is used. First, Gene Taylor acknowledged on the radio last week that even if Winona would have lost today, they still would have had a strength of schedule advantage over NDSU. However, had Winona lost today, their s.o.s. would have been 10.0, which is of course lower than NDSU's division II-only strength of schedule. In all the interviews I've heard with him in the past few weeks, it's never been discussed that there are two different strengths of schedule--one including only division II games and one including all games. If there were a division II-only s.o.s., one would assume that he would have been emphasizing that as a potential NDSU advantage since it would do away with the relatively low values given for the Montana win and the UC-Davis loss. Also, on the UND hockey post-game show Roger Thomas was interviewed by Scott Hennen. RT was on the committee for several years and knows how the process works. He specifically mentioned how I-AA games aren't particularly helpful as the NCAA wants to provide an incentive for dII teams to play dII opponents. It wouldn't be much of a disincentive if non-dII games were only going to affect the strength of schedule index in a tie-breaker situation. I imagine Taylor will shed some light on this topic one way or the other in the next day or so.

While I don't agree with how the NCAA has chosen to calculate strength of schedule, I don't see how a committee can possibly choose to disregard it and award more credit for playing I-AA teams than what the rules state. Looking at the criteria objectively, using strength of schedule as that term is defined, NDSU is not going to make it. If they do, then Taylor is one hell of a lobbyist since nearly everybody, myself included, assumed NDSU was out after the St. Cloud loss.

Don't forget about the national committee, which has veto power over the regional committees. The midwest rep on the committee is from Northwest Missouri State. If you haven't read the latest south region column at d2football.com regarding what the national committee can do, you should read it. Also, there will still be six voting members on the committee. When somebody has a conflict, there's a replacement. For the NCC, Mike Marcil will replace Taylor.

I think what you're disregarding is the fact that while you or I would agree that a win over Montana is far more impressive than a win over Fort Hays St., for example, it is NOT so as strength of schedule is calculated by the NCAA. These are the actual strength of schedule numbers for the four teams who have a legitimate case to be the other two teams in the playoffs: Pitt St. 10.09 Emporia St. 10.0 NDSU 9.636 Central Mo. 9.18 If s.o.s. is as important as we're lead to believe, NDSU is out because they not only are behind Pitt St. and Emporia is that regard, but obviously they also have a worse overall record. Not to mention the whole political issue with a 3-loss team getting in over a 2-loss team from conferences of comparable strength. I'm not saying it's impossible for NDSU to get in, but they have an awful lot going against them.