Well, since I'm so bored, I figured I'd check how true this is in the national tournament. Going back to to 2003, which was the first year of the 16 team field, only 9 times has 4 goals not been enough to win a game. That's 9 out of 75 games. 12%
2007 Regional First Round- North Dakota over Michigan 8-5
2007 Semifinal - Boston College over North Dakota 6-4
2006 Regional Final - Maine over Michigan State 5-4
2006 Semifinal - Boston College over North Dakota 6-5
2005 Regional First Round - Boston College over Mercyhurt 5-4
2005 Regional First Round - Colorado College over Colgate 6-5
2004 Regional First Round - Maine over Harvard 5-4
2003 Regional First Round - Boston University over Harvard 6-4
2003 Semifinal - Minnesota over Ferris State 7-4
So, with our defense the way it is this year, I definitely see 3-4 goals winning every game from here out.