jimdahl

I have it on good authority that he specifically said, "Gentlemen, I don't want to see another 'Fire Hak' thread on SiouxSports"

Warning, tech jargon ahead... The tech guys say it has something to do with having previously been on a Linux 2.6 kernel, leading to "kernel panics". We're now happily on a Linux 3.0 kernel, which they're optimistic will resolve the problem. If you know what that really means and can wear the same shirt at lunch and dinner, you're a better man than I. I'll continue to remain engaged with the techs until we reach the type of stability to which we were previously accustomed (about a year of continuous uptime until last Thursday). In an unlikely timing coincidence, I've been unusually distracted by family issues since Thursday evening, leading to atypically poor responsiveness from me. Sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused.

For titles/year (or years/title), you're absolutely right that the two aren't comparable. However, the discussion I was trying to join was Sagard's comment on UND's success rate once the Sioux make the Frozen Four. For that purpose, I intentionally chose the inflection points (e.g. the record was also noticably worse pre-1980). I was trying to highlight how there's a generation of Sioux fans who became accustomed to not losing in the Frozen Four. No Frozen Four appearances. I started trying to organize it by coach, since that's the frequent topic of discussion, but decided the natural clusters made an even better point. It would be even more dramatic if we broke up the natural clustering and made the split at 2000 instead. 1980-2000 would be 11-1 with 5 NCs from 6 appearances, while 2001-2012 would be 2-6 with 0 NCs in 6 appearances.

For Sioux fans of a certain age, it's easy to see why there's a little playoff angst these days. By my quick count: 1980-2001: UND was 12-2 (86%) in 7 Frozen Four appearances, of which they won 5 NCs (71%) 2005-2012: UND was 1-5 (16%) in 5 Frozen Four appearances, of which they won 0 NCs (0%) In reality, random streaks occur and times change, but Sioux fans had become pretty accustomed to winning it all if we made the Frozen Four until the past decade. In that 80-01 streak, there were also only 3 seasons that the Sioux made the tournament and missed the Frozen Four. Again, a tournament appearance had a better than 50/50 chance of winning it all.

I'll try to get something there before six months this time, but today is probably a little premature for removing it

Sadly, I seem to have misplaced the 2010 results and don't see a final tally in the forum thread (we must all have been too depressed), but here are the performance/bracket scoring winners since the game's inception: 2011 tho0505 2009 Big A HG 2008 willtippen 2007 seanpc03 2006 teamsioux 2005 mynameiscuomo 2004 paul62/BigGreyAnt41/brew003/UP2SKI An honorable mention goes to luapsided who was often near the top, but never took it all (too many picks for UND to win it all? )

I think we were kind of serious -- the Gophers have to be a just a tad nervous opening up the 3rd in this situation, such that a quick goal or two by UND could be extremely demoralizing. On the other hand, expect Minnesota to come out doing their best (which seems to be pretty good) to make sure that doesn't happen.

Yep, we've clearly got 'em right where we want them.

Leaderboard -- just click any name

In the KRACH vs. PWR comparison, there's no more stand-out difference than Union this year. #3 and a strong 1-seed in PWR, #15 and not even favored to win its 1 vs. 4 opener by KRACH (though just barely). Unfortuantely, a single sample won't really tell us much, but you can bet a lot of people armed with KRACH bet against Union in their office pools.

Yep, region of death. Minnesota's chances of winning it all, per KRACH, are lower than all the 3 seeds (BU, Maine, Mass.-Lowell, and Denver). Only Air Force, Union (a 1-seed!), and Cornell stand a lower chance of winning it all.

I've been doing this for about 5 years now and it's always fun... KRACH predicts the NCAA tournament But this year it's downright crazy. We've never seen the PWR-based tournament seeding and KRACH deviate so much. * UND’s predicted 53% chance of winning the opening round game is lower than any 1 seed in the previous 4 years I’ve been doing this * Union is even worse off, not even favored to win its 1 vs 4 matchup * Similarly, 2 seed Minnesota is an underdog to 3 seed Boston University * The largest line in any 2 vs 3 matchup is 54%-46%, Miami over Mass.-Lowell

Yes, the Sioux could actually come out of the weekend #1 in PWR if Michigan, Union, and BC stumbled. For the rest of the tournament, they would similarly need outcomes that flip those three comparisons in their favor without losing any others. I would think Whelan's DIY Rankings Calculator would be suitable for the task. Just tell it you're calculating PWR and use specified results with your desired results added.

The only two things I would add to that are: 1) UND was somewhat uniquely in that position this year, such moves aren't the norm. For example, you didn't see similar moves from any of this year's other conference tournament champs, even lower ranked ones. (ranking trends) 2) It was entirely as expected, we just didn't discuss it much because it was known that winning out would put us in a really really good place, so more of the focus was on what it would take to clinch. PWR possibilities of Mar. 12 modeled that if UND won out, the Sioux had an 83% chance of finishing 3-4.

Each round is worth the same amount, so 1 - 2 - 4 - 8 points per round. So, you've pretty much gotta get the champ right to win under that system, so I also post a leaderboard by straight correct picks.

Yeah, that always takes me an extra day... Distribution of picks

You've got it right. UND would play BC, and Union would play Michigan (assuming the 1s all advanced).

I think I have the bracket working pretty well. Ever since accidentally putting up one where the regional champs advanced to meet the incorrect foes a while back, I always post it here for a while before adding it to the front page. 2012 NCAA hockey bracket challenge You can save/load picks with your forum account. Let me know of any problems you see. My guess is that we're going to see more UND wins it all picks than usual this year, but it will be interesting to see.

Well, that should be it. Thursday night PWR possibilties update, Sioux seem a lock for NCAAs

A deeper dive into whether UND will make the tournament

As some of the press has noted, plenty of people have reviewed Olive Garden and not received the attention. It's Marilyn's folksy but latently passive-aggressive style that I think so charmed the nation. Marilyn's somewhat similar review of Taco Bell did warrant some discussion in the Washington Post, but there just wasn't the opportunity for things to go "viral" in 2004 that there is today.

Here are all the remaining possibilities: PWR possibilities Here's the one we care about (percentage of remaining outcomes in which UND finishes with a particular PWR): 2 0.2% 3 5.1% 4 5.3% 5 2.0% 6 2.1% 7 3.6% 8 6.4% 9 14.6% 10 22.9% 11 19.0% 12 14.2% 13 4.2% 14 0.3% I'll go into a little more depth on what happens if UND wins vs. loses later. As far as what rank we need, there are 16 slots and the winner of each conference tournament gets one. From the table linked above, the marked teams below are the teams who can win their conference tournament without necessarily being pushed into the top 16 of PWR. So, for each of those that wins, take away a slot. WCHA * Michigan Tech Denver Minnesota Duluth * St. Cloud St North Dakota Minnesota Hockey East Maine Boston University * Providence Boston College ECAC * Harvard Cornell * Colgate Union CCHA Miami Western Michigan * Bowling Green Michigan Atlantic Hockey * RIT * Niagara * Mercyhurst * Air Force So, #16 won't make it at large because the winner of the Atlantic tournament will take a slot.

We're actually tied for 11th, Maine has sole possession of 10th. As to who wins PWR ties, no one is positive (and indeed it could always change under our feet) but the general consensus for some time has been that ties seem to be resolved by RPI instead of H2H (though some still claim that RPI is only used for 3-way ties and that 2-way ties might be resolved via H2H).

The interview with the Village Voice (which occurred early in her 15 minutes, before she became a regular on the morning show circuit and all that) was my favorite... Marilyn Hagerty, Grand Forks Olive Garden Reviewer, Speaks Pure gold.