jimdahl

Well, that should be it. Thursday night PWR possibilties update, Sioux seem a lock for NCAAs

A deeper dive into whether UND will make the tournament

As some of the press has noted, plenty of people have reviewed Olive Garden and not received the attention. It's Marilyn's folksy but latently passive-aggressive style that I think so charmed the nation. Marilyn's somewhat similar review of Taco Bell did warrant some discussion in the Washington Post, but there just wasn't the opportunity for things to go "viral" in 2004 that there is today.

Here are all the remaining possibilities: PWR possibilities Here's the one we care about (percentage of remaining outcomes in which UND finishes with a particular PWR): 2 0.2% 3 5.1% 4 5.3% 5 2.0% 6 2.1% 7 3.6% 8 6.4% 9 14.6% 10 22.9% 11 19.0% 12 14.2% 13 4.2% 14 0.3% I'll go into a little more depth on what happens if UND wins vs. loses later. As far as what rank we need, there are 16 slots and the winner of each conference tournament gets one. From the table linked above, the marked teams below are the teams who can win their conference tournament without necessarily being pushed into the top 16 of PWR. So, for each of those that wins, take away a slot. WCHA * Michigan Tech Denver Minnesota Duluth * St. Cloud St North Dakota Minnesota Hockey East Maine Boston University * Providence Boston College ECAC * Harvard Cornell * Colgate Union CCHA Miami Western Michigan * Bowling Green Michigan Atlantic Hockey * RIT * Niagara * Mercyhurst * Air Force So, #16 won't make it at large because the winner of the Atlantic tournament will take a slot.

We're actually tied for 11th, Maine has sole possession of 10th. As to who wins PWR ties, no one is positive (and indeed it could always change under our feet) but the general consensus for some time has been that ties seem to be resolved by RPI instead of H2H (though some still claim that RPI is only used for 3-way ties and that 2-way ties might be resolved via H2H).

The interview with the Village Voice (which occurred early in her 15 minutes, before she became a regular on the morning show circuit and all that) was my favorite... Marilyn Hagerty, Grand Forks Olive Garden Reviewer, Speaks Pure gold.

Congratulations ladies on bringing UND to its first NCAA tournament appearance! Hopefully this season blazes a good trail for future teams.

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It's there in the post. Obviously UND winning is most important. Then, you're looking for the "Who else to watch this weekend" section. To quote:

Sioux have an opportunity to make PWR gains and position themselves for NCAA tournament berth

Official bracket

According to the championship manual, anyway, they only use the pairwise criteria, but do it a little more subjectively than for men's...

Though Roman was right on the Gophers topping UMD, they actually got there by UMD stumbling rather than Minnesota being as dominant as he hoped.<br /> <br /> I couldn't get many people to play along this year, so I'll just pat myself on the back a little. I'm going to declare victory on getting UND pretty much right (which was a pretty optimistic prediction at the time), though I clearly fell apart a bit on Nebraska-Omaha, St Cloud and Bemidji St.<br /> <br /> <table style="width:400px"> <caption>WCHA Final</caption> <tr><td>Team </td><td>Roman</td><td> Me</td><td> Actual</td></tr> <tr><td>UMN </td><td>42 </td><td> 40</td><td> 40</td></tr> <tr><td>UMD </td><td>41 </td><td> 40</td><td> 37</td></tr> <tr><td>Denver </td><td>35 </td><td> 34</td><td> 36</td></tr> <tr><td>UND </td><td> </td><td> 34</td><td> 33</td></tr> <tr><td>CC </td><td>34 </td><td> 32</td><td> 31</td></tr> <tr><td>SCSU </td><td> </td><td> 23</td><td> 28</td></tr> <tr><td>Nebraska-Omaha </td><td>33 </td><td> 33</td><td> 27</td></tr> <tr><td>MTech </td><td> </td><td> 28</td><td> 26</td></tr> <tr><td>Bemidji State </td><td> </td><td> 20</td><td> 25</td></tr> <tr><td>UW </td><td> </td><td> 26</td><td> 24</td></tr> <tr><td>Mankato </td><td> </td><td> 15</td><td> 18</td></tr> <tr><td>AA </td><td> </td><td> 11</td><td> 11</td></tr> </table>

Me too, this is all I know about the game, thanks for the updates! (null)

Brad's article in this morning's Herald reminded me that I always meant to say something about women's PWR. For the record, given that this is the first time it's been really interesting for UND, I tried to adapt the PWR forecaster to women's hockey but failed miserably. For those who follow men's hockey and the PWR closely, what I can deliver now is a succinct list of the differences in how women's teams are selected: * The championship is not D-I, but "National Collegiate" which includes any D-I or D-II team that has played 20 games against D-I or D-II opponents. * RPI weightings are different (30-24-46 instead of 25-21-54) * TUC is vs. the top 12 in RPI rather than against > .500 in RPI, though TUCs must be over .500 in RPI. That last one is most interesting. USCHO seems to interpret that as meaning that teams in the top 12 are TUCs, whereas the NCAA manual instead definitely implies that teams over .500 are TUCs but are only compared to the top 12 for the purposes of the TUC criterion. Anyway, I have everything implemented except including D-II and the 20 games rule, so there's a remote chance I finish. Here's section 2.3 "Selection Criteria" from the National Collegiate Women's Ice Hockey Championship Manual:

Well, converting the data to graphs is still a manual process, so I don't do it for every team every week. I do it for a few each week, and add them on request (so will do UMD tomorrow). I do also hope to eventually automate that piece of it so fans of other conferences can see their favorite teams without having to ask me, but I'm not there yet. However, this week for the first time ever I did post in table format the probabilities of each ranking for every NCAA team based on their own performance. That's the data you want, just not in chart format.

Sioux hosting Minnesota State in a nearly must-win situation This week with forecasts for EVERY NCAA team.

As always, lots more on the other side of the link.... Sioux-Pioneers matchup has playoff implications for both

For a very accurate but limited 1-week answer, you can go to Whelan's Build Your Own Rankings calculator, say you want to calculate PWR, and change that game to a loss. That would put UND at T-14 (#15 w/tie-breaker), so the tie did a buy the Sioux a spot this week over if it had been a loss. More abstractly, it helps: A tie goes into RPI as half a win, boosting UND's RPI by something like .0036 over if it had been a loss. That's enough to give UND the Ohio St. comparison this week, and could have similar effects at the end. Assuming Tech remains a non-TUC, it wouldn't affect H2H or TUC. And on COP gives UND's COP vs. Mich. Tech a little boost from .500 to .750. That's most helpful in comparisons with non-conference common opponents, where the effect is magnified by the small number of COPs. e.g. vs. Boston College, the Sioux now win the comparison at .75 to .6667, whereas with a loss it would have been a .625 to .6667 loss.

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Discussions like this are really quite distracting from the conversation that most people here want to have. Let me repeat myself...

Sioux looking for sweep to bolster PairWise Ranking Continues to look like 1 more loss is a lock, 2 more losses is on the edge. Also included in the post: looks at CC, Minnesota, and Ferris St.

The big winner in the latest round of nickname controversy seems to be this blog, that most Sioux fans had probably never heard of a few weeks ago. By being the most vocal champion of a very popular but contrarian (vis-a-vis the University and its official representatives) viewpoint, SayAnthing seems to have the market locked up on leading that point-of-view. I've seen more posts referencing it in the last couple weeks than the last 10 years. Kudos to them as businessmen, hope they remembered to put some ads on those pages