jimdahl

Belmore picked by GVSU on the GV 30. Another punt-by-interception for the Sioux. Sigh -- late hit by UND, so GVSU gets it near the 50. 8:47 remaining.

Crazy drive for UND. GV has a 15yd facemask penalty, then a pass interference to help move UND up to about GVSU's 25. Strouth ran it in straight up the middle from there for a TD. Glas missed the PAT, putting UND in position to need a FG to tie instead of win. UND 12, GVSU 15

Huge 50yd pass for GVSU to Collins(?). GVSU 7, UND 3

UND just turned the ball over around their own 15. They held GVSU for 3 downs, GVSU is going for it on 4th from about the 7. BIIIIIIIG STOP Sioux. GVSU tried to rush forward the needed 1ft but didn't even break the line of scrimmage. 4 and out GVSU, UND takes over on downs on their own 6 with about 7 minutes remaining in the half.

Your mileage may vary, but for me this looks WAY better than Dataflix. It's interesting to compare, because it looks like both feeds are encoding the same source video. GVSU is using RealPlayer instead of the Windows Media used by Dataflix, the encoding rate for both seems to be about 220k/s. Though it pixellates a little more during periods of big motion, its way sharper and more fluid on my system when zoomed in. Not to mention, the price is right

This is non-original footage, I posted it last February, but in case there's anyone new around: 1... 2... we want more (MPEG, 2.8Mb) Sieve chant (MPEG, 5.5Mb) The first one is a lot better, and more representative of the entire crowd joining in a cheer. The whole crowd is in on the 2nd cheer, but it's less obvious. Both are somewhat mediocre as they were shot with a still camera. You can't beat the crowd participation at Wisconsin.

Yes, the announcer definitely said that. Unfortunately for the Sioux, but quite justly for St. Cloud, it seems he was wrong.

I have absolutely no idea what glitch those of you who check such things at 1am encountered, but the list of scores in my first post was printed directly from the database (Grand Valley St 24 @ Michigan Tech 7), and it looks right to me now, after the late night automated score harvesting. Sorry for the inconvenience. Anyway, the above-posted picks are the most obvious prediction from our SSI/win% numbers, so I would endorse those also. I still wonder exactly how far the head-to-head can move things (past weeks' rankings point to UNO jumping SCSU, but I think they'll resist that one because it would bump GVSU). Regardless, its hard to come up with a situation in which UND isn't in and we'll learn a little more about what happens in the smoky room. If they don't change much next year, I think we're pretty near the point of being able to accurately predict these regional rankings.

It's always been explained to me that earned access gets in a team in the top 10 (by NCAA rankings, not conference finish) if no other team from the conference is in the top 6. That wouldn't apply to UNO, since there will be an NCC team in the top 6. If that's incorrect and the NCAA does give some sort of autobid for conference champs, that shouldn't affect UNO's ranking so their slot should be at GVSU's expense (again, with the caveat that I simply have no idea how much weight the committee is going to give UNO's head-to-head wins over SCSU and UND).

While that could definitely affect seedings, remember that Winona is a lock for a playoff spot because of earned access. I agree, it looks good for now. I don't see how GVSU gets ahead of UND, though the SSIs could tighten up pending some remaining results. The big question on seeding (and for GVSU making the playoffs), is how far is the committee willing to move teams based on head-to-head results. This season, I've never seen them move a team so far as to put UNO ahead of UND or SCSU, but you never know.

Having punched in the important games highlighted here manually, I've updated the SSI. Keep in mind that UNO and SCSU both have H2H wins over UND and UNO has an H2H win over SCSU. We've seen those H2H's make pretty big moves in the regional rankings, though not yet as big as the current gap between UND and UNO. I'm still missing a few scores that could shift UND's SSI (though SCSU looks like the win is in hand, so we're really just waiting on Delta St). I'll update it again tonight when I get the rest of the D2 results, and in the morning after all the day's results are in. Note -- the ONLY valid results on the SSI page right now are for the teams on the bubble in the Northwest; I'll have the full update before Sunday morning. The ONLY games from this week included in this calculation right now are: Saginaw Valley St 47 @ Ferris St 14 Tiffin 39 @ Gannon 50 Ashland 21 @ Indianapolis 24 Grand Valley St 24 @ Michigan Tech 7 Northern Michigan 18 @ Northwood 48 Nebraska-Omaha 13 @ Minn St-Mankato 20 South Dakota 21 @ North Dakota 41 Northern St 44 @ SW Minnesota St 9

Glas missed a ~31yd FG attempt. USD ties it, 7-7, 12:24 remaining in the half. UND almost held on. From a 1st and goal, UND D held off three attempts, but the 3rd was ruled pass intereference, bringing on another 1st and goal. UND then stuffed 2 running attempts, but USD got in on the 3rd. UND scores, 14-7, 5:50 reamining in the half. Belmore is doing well, 11/15 for 130yds, TD to Wisthoff. 14-14. 5:28 remaining in half. USD answered immediately with 72 yd run by Logan. He's up to about 170 rushing yds in the 1st half. What has become of our run D? 21-14 UND. Belmore to Weber. The USD secondary is awful -- Sioux receivers are open on every play and our coaches seem to be figuring that out. Unless both teams adjust big at the half, this one's a shootout.

Hopefully the quietness here today is because everyone is at the game For anyone looking for an update-- Sioux off to an early lead with a scoring drive following an INT. 7-0 UND in the 1st.

Nov. 15 Business Week mentions reforms in the NDUS in an article, "Should Public Universities Behave Like Private Colleges?" Relevant excerpt: Nice to seem some national recognition for the improvements the NDUS has made the last few years. The increases in research grants and out-of-state enrollments at UND and NDSU have been phenomenal.

Day's problem was one of timing. He wasn't HH material his first 5 games, and nominations were being made a couple weeks ago, so he had really only had 3 breakout games at that point. Still, a disappointment that arguably the biggest impact player in the NCC this year didn't even get the nod.

Thanks to some help from Bob Eblen, we've now got the ratings sorting in about the same outcome as the regional rankings (the only big exceptions are when there is a significant head-to-head result between nearly tied teams). We'll see Sunday morning if this formula carries through to prove correct in the final week.

Doh -- I made that mistake in more than one place. I was treating .667 teams with 9 GP as not being able to make it >.700, which is wrong, they only need to = .700. The only other one in that category was Indiana PA for UNO. Looking at my sample D2 RPI, for example, USD's D2 opp win%/opp-opp win% are .4425/.5790, whereas Winona's are .3371/.4969. There's no doubt in my mind that USD has played a tougher D2 schedule; however, D2 chose to severely punish games against lower divisions and USD chose to play 3 of them, which killed their SSI. We've seen numerous instances this year in which a team ahead in both SSI/win% is ranked below a lower team, even when there's no obvious H2H/COP/in-region/etc... explanation. That makes it seem likely they are considering other factors like recent big wins, but keep in mind UND is also playing a quality opponent (>.700), though at home, so who knows. If UND and GVSU both win, we certainly shouldn't be booking our flights to Michigan until the selection show is over.

My one big uncertainty when writing the above analysis was I had no idea where the committee would put USD, given their pathetic SSI but superb record. At #8, just behind UND/GVSU, they could fight for a spot if UND and GVSU both lose. Them knocking in the door makes it a lot harder for UND to make the playoffs with a Sioux loss this weekend, because USD would likely jump ahead of UND in line. It's official boys -- go out there and win.

My back-of-the-envelope (i.e. manual, so error prone) take-- UND: if def. USD, SSI: 9.90, Win%: .80 if def. by USD, SSI: 9.30, Win%: .70 UNO: if def. Mankato, SSI: 9.818, Win%: .818 if def. by Mankato, SSI: 9.27, Win%: .727 SCSU: if def. UMD, SSI: 9.9, Win%: .80 if def. by UMD, SSI: 9.3, Win%: .70 GVSU: if def. Mich. Tech, SSI: 9.60, Win%: .800 if def. by Mich. Tech, SSI: 9.00, Win%: .700 From what I can tell, NCC, NSIC, and GLIAC will each get an "earned access" representative. There should be a rep. from each conference naturally ranked higher than UND, so the earned access won't result in a loss of a slot otherwise available to UND. I'm assuming Northwood, Winona St, and Michigan Tech. are locks at this point. Plenty of scenarios there that get UND in if they win Saturday. If UND loses, the Sioux will need a lot of help. If UND and all the other teams listed win, it could come down to UND vs. GVSU (SCSU has the H2H over UND, and SCSU/GVSU have no COP or H2H). UND and GVSU have both defeated their only common opponent and have otherwise similar records. UND has a slightly higher SSI, but I'm tempted to guess that however the NCAA relatively ranks the two of them this week will carry over to next week if both win or lose. Though it ain't gonna happen, it's still mathematically possible for UND to be the #1 rep from the NCC How former opponents' results could affect SSI (the odds I missed something here are quite high): if Mankato def. UNO, Mankato Win% becomes >.500, giving UND .2 and UNO .18 and SCSU .2 more SSI points if SCSU loses to UMD, win% becomes <.75, dropping UND .2 and UNO .18 SSI points if UND loses to USD, win% becomes <.75, dropping UNO .18 and SCSU .2 SSI points if Delta St loses to Ark-Monticello, Delta St Win% becomes .500, dropping UND .2 more SSI points if Western Washington loses to Humboldt St., win% becomes .500, dropping UNO .18 and SCSU .2 SSI points if Tiffin def. Gannon, win% becomes >.500, giving UNO .18 SSI points if Ashland def. Indianapolis, win% becomes >.500, giving GVSU .18 SSI points if Northern St. loses to SW Minnesota St, win% becomes .500, dropping SCSU .2 SSI points

I was going to make a similar observation, though from a slightly different direction. The Sioux are only championship competitive every other year due to NCC scheduling. Those years that we play the tough competition at home, the Sioux do well and get home field. 2004 was never in the cards. Parenthesized numbers are NCC ranking: 2004 @UNO (1) Lost @SCSU (2) Lost 2003 (UND was 1) NDSU (2) Won UNO (2) Won SCSU (4) Won 2002 SCSU (1) Lost @UNC (1) Lost (later forfeit) @UNO (3) Lost 2001 (UND was 1) UNO (2) Lost NDSU (3) Won UNC (4) Won SDSU (4) Won Win the rest and the every-other-year pattern continues. Don't get me wrong, this year's team certainly does not have a fork in them yet; with a good home showing next week, the team is playoff-bound, just not with that cushy home field of which we were just discussing the nicety.

I never run the numbers until Sunday morning because I have to include the outcomes of all D-I games, and outcomes such as UNC over Miami aren't necessarily decided until 11-12pm Saturday. It's there now.

27-17 UNO final. Congrats, Mavs, no one can argue UNO didn't deserve that one.

Wow -- Day got his big breakout run of the day, 72 yds for a TD, bringing his total for the day up to about 160. Hopefully that's his ONE big run of the day. It would be nice if UND took a lead eventually instead of playing catchup. I'd like to see the offense drive down the field for a touchdown at some point in this game. Oh, well, special teams will have another opportunity soon So far, this just doesn't feel like the formula for a win; thankfully they're still in the game so have a chance to turn it around. 24-17 Mavs

UND finally started moving the ball, got down to the 30, and then went for it on a 4th and 8 -- result? Bowenkamp sacked. Doh. At least they got a couple 1st downs and got the D off the field for a while. The UND announcers already said once, "No one has moved the ball against the Sioux like the Mavericks just did at any point in any game this season". Near the end of the 1st, still 3-0 UNO. Dressler just returned a punt 70 yds to the 3 yd-line. First big play of the day for the Sioux.

<sigh> I jumped in during the 2nd intermission from my undisclosed, with Dick Cheney, Eastern Time Zone location. At least it's 2-4, now, but this is not for what I was hoping. Sweet, BC penalty. Thankfully, my much appreciated wife is making the beer run to the beer dispenser in our mixed use dwelling. New beer has arrived. Go Sioux.