The situation in the Southland is quite interesting, and it is going to have ramifications for UND no matter how it shakes out. Central Arkansas cannot get the AQ, as SELA and Nichols would both have the head-to-head tie breaker against them. SELA vs Nichols this weekend is basically the defacto Southland Championship game and the winner gets the AQ. If Central Arkansas wins (as they should) against Incarnate Word, they will have 9 DI wins including one against an FBS team making them a lock for an at-large berth. I would be shocked if the loser of SELA v. Nichols gets an at-large berth. All three of the Southland leaders, including Central Arkansas, are below UND in the Massey Ratings.
Another potential problem for North Dakota is Kennesaw St. For whatever reason, the pollsters just love Kennesaw. They are currently 9th in the Coach's Poll, three spots ahead of Big South front-runner Monmouth who thrashed Kennesaw when they played. Massey has Monmouth at 21, and Kennesaw at 31 respectively. A loss by Kennesaw (unlikely) and a win by Monmouth this weekend would strengthen the case for UND.
It's going to be really close as to whether or not UND makes it. I'm not overly optimistic. Past results indicate that a 7-4 North Dakota team doesn't impress the selection committee.
Before the season started, our Strength of Schedule was #1 in the land, based on 2018 results of course. As it has shaken out, our current Strength of Schedule is #15. That still could be favorable for us, as Towson is the only other bubble team with a higher SOS.........