brianvf Posted February 27, 2006 Share Posted February 27, 2006 Thanks for putting in the time to figure this all out sagard. Very informative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwing77 Posted February 27, 2006 Share Posted February 27, 2006 Thanks for putting in the time to figure this all out sagard. Very informative. I agree. Thanks sagard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoggy Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 I never thought a series against Tech could be so important. What would happen if UND faced MSU in the first round and swept them? At that point MSU wouldn't be a TUC, but doesn't the rule say our PWR couldn't drop? Or is it our RPI? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochsioux Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 All pairwise discussion below is without the bonus added. Since it is not known exactly what the bonus will be I will not comment on it for the most part. Current best estimates show the bonus should help but I'd rather not have to rely on this. Currently the Sioux sit in a tie for 12 place with BC, with each team having won 16 comparisons. The Sioux win the tiebreaker today based on a higher RPI. Assumptions: Top 12 finish in pairwise will be enough for the NCAA tourney. Top 14 might make it but upsets in conference tourneys would start to eliminate some teams. E.g. There is a reasonable chance the ECAC tourney winner will not be a top 14 team. 17 comparisons wins will be enough to be 12th or higher. Teams dropping in/out of TUC not factored. Current comparison wins that are close, score in (). UNO (2-1) Will come down to RPI. Currently Sioux have a .5458 to .5418 lead. Cornell (2-1) Will come down to RPI. Currently Sioux have a .5458 to .5411 lead. Maine (2-1) Most likely RPI. Sioux lead .5458 to .5449 TUC and COP are close enough that they could change depending on matchups and results. Michigan (2-1) Most likely RPI. Sioux lead .5458 to .5411 TUC is close enough that it could change depending on matchups and results. Sioux currently losing TUC. BC (1-1, Sioux win due to RPI) Sioux need to maintain RPI. COP is tied, so this could be the final factor. BC and NH play this Thur. and Sat. A BC sweep and they will win COP and probably keep this comparsion. Sioux need NH to win at least one game. NH win(s) should also help keep them in position for the Sioux to get the RPI bonus points for the road win earlier this year. Colgate (2-1) Sioux need to maintain TUC lead. Current comparison wins that the Sioux will mostly keep: NH (3-1) The fact the Sioux went 1-0-1 in NH early in the season will give them this. Dartmouth (3-0) TUC is extremely close but even losing this should not be a problem. Providence (2-1) Ferris State (3-0) St. Lawrence (2-1) Vermont (2-1) Lake Superior (3-0) Notre Dame (3-0) Notre Dame is barely eligible (.5023 RPI). Holy Cross (2-0) Sacred Heart (1-1) Sioux win tie on RPI. No common opponents. Current comparisons the Sioux will probably lose: Minnesota (1-6) Wisconsin (0-5) Miami (1-2) BU (1-2) Play Northeastern this w/e, RPI likely to drop. Too far behind in RPI to likely flip (.5458 to .5623) ? Not sure how much playing NE will hurt their RPI (NE is 3-22-7) Michigan State (0-4) Loss to MSU early in season makes this a done deal now. CC (1-4) Need to play and defeat in final five and they could flip this (RPI close). Harvard (2-3) 1-0 loss at home during XMAS really hurt. Denver (3-4) Need CC to sweep them this w/e to put this back in play. Current comparison losses that are close: Northern Michigan (1-2) COP will decide this. Need to sweep Michigan Tech this w/e to flip. COP are St.Cloud, Mich.Tech, Mich.State, Wisconsin, Miami Ohio State (1-2) COP very close (Sioux trailing 2-4-0 .3333 to 3-6-1 .3500) COP are CC, Miami, Mich.State, Wisconsin St.Cloud (3-4) TUC very close. Mankato becoming and staying a TUC would flip. Wisconsin sweep this w/e would flip. Meeting in first round WCHA will probably settle this. Alaska-Fairbanks (1-2) Losing both COP and TUC. COP can only be flipped if AF loses 2-0 to COP in playoffs. TUC more likely case for Sioux winning. Mankato becoming and staying a TUC would flip. Summary: Sioux have 10 pairwise wins they probably keep, 6 wins they could lose, 4 losses they could win, and 8 probable losses. So, of the 10 comparisons in play the Sioux need to win and keep 6-7 of those and they will probably make the NCAA tourney. Most of the close pairwise wins are due to slight RPI advantages. Can't afford an RPI drop and need to improve. Playing Tech will not help. Really need to finish 5th and play St. Cloud in the first round. Don't really want to move up to fourth (not likely, but could happen) as this would mean we play Mankato. We want Mankato as a TUC, not sure that is possible if we play and win the first round against them. Most of the close pairwise losses are due to COP or TUC. To maintain or improve pairwise this w/e: A sweep of Tech this w/e is very important. This may be easier said then done. (gain N.Mich comparison) Need NH to win at least one against BC. (maintain BC comparison) Wisconsin sweep of St.Cloud. Not likely based on Wisconsins play lately. (gain St.Cloud) Maine is so close the Sioux could sweep and still lose the comparison. (Maine plays UMass, slightly higher RPI than Tech) Other games this w/e of note: Notre Dame vs. AF (CCHA 1st round) ND sweep would give control of who wins this comparison to the Sioux (not factoring in Mankato). Ohio State beating Ferris State (CCHA 1st round). Seems odd, but an Ohio State playoff loss this w/e would reduce the chances of flipping the comparison. With no more games to play the Sioux would have to meet and beat CC in the play-in game. No guarantee they meet CC since they will probably play Mankato and Mankato is on a run. Otherwise, they would need to win enough to play and beat Wisconsin. If they do that the Ohio State comparison probably won't matter for making the NCAA anyway. A sweep of Tech (at worst 1-0-1), and a first round win against a TUC will probably be enough to get into the NCAA tourney. If they don't get a TUC in the first round they may have to win the play-in game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jk Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 rochsioux, I have spent some time over the last month or so with UND's PWR comparisons, and your post is as complete and accurate a picture of UND's PWR status as I could hope to read. Great job. Just a few things I thought about as I read it: - MSUM's unadjusted RPI is now .4992. I think if they go 0-2 against CC in the first round, it will fall to around .4968. MSUM has one quality win each on the road and at home (both against UNO), so if they retain those (UNO is 9th in RPI and needs to stay in the top 15), and if the bonus is in fact in the neighborhood of 3,2,1, then MSUM has a good chance of staying above .5000 even if they get swept. It's obviously very close though. - UNH is now 16th in RPI, but they have a sizable gap to get to 15th. We should have been cheering for UNH all year long, but now they really need our help. Having them beat BC would be good in three ways: 1) UNH's RPI would improve more, helping UND get quality wins, 2) BC's RPI would decline, helping the UND/BC comparison, 3) BC losing is always a good thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZSIOUX Posted February 28, 2006 Author Share Posted February 28, 2006 rochsioux, I have spent some time over the last month or so with UND's PWR comparisons, and your post is as complete and accurate a picture of UND's PWR status as I could hope to read. Great job. Just a few things I thought about as I read it: - MSUM's unadjusted RPI is now .4992. I think if they go 0-2 against CC in the first round, it will fall to around .4968. MSUM has one quality win each on the road and at home (both against UNO), so if they retain those (UNO is 9th in RPI and needs to stay in the top 15), and if the bonus is in fact in the neighborhood of 3,2,1, then MSUM has a good chance of staying above .5000 even if they get swept. It's obviously very close though. - UNH is now 16th in RPI, but they have a sizable gap to get to 15th. We should have been cheering for UNH all year long, but now they really need our help. Having them beat BC would be good in three ways: 1) UNH's RPI would improve more, helping UND get quality wins, 2) BC's RPI would decline, helping the UND/BC comparison, 3) BC losing is always a good thing. so we need UNH to beat BC on thursday. what about the DU vs CC game on thursday? which one winning will give us a boost or does it even matter? thanks to the few that really can break these things down because its almost like learning another langauge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skateshattrick Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 In reviewing the Pairwise rankings, the Sioux are given credit for only 1 quality road win and 1 neutral ice win. I'm not sure that I understand, and I would appreciate it if the Pairwise gurus could help. I assume that the neutral ice win is Miami. However, the Sioux beat CC, UM, New Hamphire, Denver and St. Cloud on the road. I would think that at least the UM and CC wins would be quality wins, if not Denver and UNH. What is the criteria? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxnami Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 In reviewing the Pairwise rankings, the Sioux are given credit for only 1 quality road win and 1 neutral ice win. I'm not sure that I understand, and I would appreciate it if the Pairwise gurus could help. I assume that the neutral ice win is Miami. However, the Sioux beat CC, UM, New Hamphire, Denver and St. Cloud on the road. I would think that at least the UM and CC wins would be quality wins, if not Denver and UNH. What is the criteria? Conference games don't count... I assume the road win is UNH, but I'm not sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochsioux Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 rochsioux, - UNH is now 16th in RPI, but they have a sizable gap to get to 15th. We should have been cheering for UNH all year long, but now they really need our help. Having them beat BC would be good in three ways: 1) UNH's RPI would improve more, helping UND get quality wins, 2) BC's RPI would decline, helping the UND/BC comparison, 3) BC losing is always a good thing. Actually, the best help by NH beating BC at least once is the COP. Losing the COP will definitely cost UND the comparison. The Sioux have no control anymore on this and they must win it to be able to win the comparison. Currently, the Sioux win RPI vs. BC (.5458 to .5362), BC wins TUC (.3864 to .5000), and COP is tied (both teams are 4-1-1 .7500). The pairwise tiebreaker is RPI which UND leads. A BC sweep this w/e puts the COP in BC's column and will flip the comparison to BC. Will be difficult to take back unless BC were to play and lose to NH in the Hockey East tourney. A split or NH sweep gives the COP to UND and cannot be undone in conference tourney play (COP teams are NH, NE, and Harvard). To then keep the comparison win it will come down to maintaining the RPI advantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jk Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 In reviewing the Pairwise rankings, the Sioux are given credit for only 1 quality road win and 1 neutral ice win. I'm not sure that I understand, and I would appreciate it if the Pairwise gurus could help. I assume that the neutral ice win is Miami. However, the Sioux beat CC, UM, New Hamphire, Denver and St. Cloud on the road. I would think that at least the UM and CC wins would be quality wins, if not Denver and UNH. What is the criteria? I believe right now they have one neutral win (Miami) and one home win (Harvard). The road win over UNH is not included because they are not in the top 15 in the RPI (UNH is 16th right now). Conference games do not qualify for "quality wins," and I think even a non-conference game against a conference opponent (if UND met CC in a holiday tournament, for example) fails to qualify as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochsioux Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 In reviewing the Pairwise rankings, the Sioux are given credit for only 1 quality road win and 1 neutral ice win. I'm not sure that I understand, and I would appreciate it if the Pairwise gurus could help. I assume that the neutral ice win is Miami. However, the Sioux beat CC, UM, New Hamphire, Denver and St. Cloud on the road. I would think that at least the UM and CC wins would be quality wins, if not Denver and UNH. What is the criteria? Without the RPI bonus the Sioux have one quality home win (Harvard), one neutral site (Miami), and no road wins. I believe the criteria is: 1. Conference games do not count 2. Win must be against top-15 RPI team. NH is currently 16th in RPI so the road win early this year doesn't count in the bonus. NH needs to get in the top-15 RPI, another reason to cheer for them against BC this w/e. Edit: Looks like jk beat me to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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