Who will UND play?

[Diggler]

As of right now #6 Cental Missouri is beating # 2 Emporia State 14-10 . #3 Winona beat #8 Duluth 24-17. NW Missouri is beating #4 Pitt State 13-6. #5 NDSU beat # 9 Concordia-St. Paul 58-17 or something. If these scores all keep up, who will be in the playoffs and who will the Sioux play? Will Winona get home field? Could it be Central at UND and NDSU at Winona?

Sure we could wait till tommorow, but what fun is that? It's better to speculate when you 're not sure what is gonna happen.

[wsuwarrior]

Just some score updates for you:

#6 CMSU leads #2 ESU, 21-10 (ESU Play-by-Play)

#3 WSU beats #8 UMD, 24-17.

[Diggler]

I'll just keep talking to wsuwarrior.

NW Missouri State 20

#4 Pitt State 19

7:49 left in the 4th.

Pitt has missed two PAT's.

[wsuwarrior]

28-18, Central Missouri leads.

I think with all this last second shuffling should make for an interesting bracket.

[U2Bad1]

The question remains if the committee will boot a 2 loss team out of the bracket in favor of a 3 loss NDSU. Should be interest.

[wsuwarrior]

Final Score:

CMSU 28, ESU 18.

This is gonna play in some interesting changes for tomorrow.

I'll wait to make my guess til after the Pitt State NWMSU game.

[Diggler]

NW Missouri State wins 20-19. They blocked a FG with one minute to go to seal the win.

Central Missouri wins 28-18. This makes for a 5 way tie for the MIAA title.

I wonder what the selection commitee is going to do. I would have to think Central Missouri is in as the #4 and Pitt State is out. The question is whether NDSU or Emporia will be the #3 seed.

[wsuwarrior]

Ok, my picks:

#1 UND

#2 Winona State

Pick 2: Emporia, Central MO, Pitt State, NDSU.

[UND92,96]

The question remains if the committee will boot a 2 loss team out of the bracket in favor of a 3 loss NDSU. Should be interest.

To the best of my knowledge, it would be unprecedented for a 3-loss NCC team to get in over a 2-loss MIAA team. I don't expect that it will happen this year, either. There are six members of the committee (2 from each of the conferences), and I would assume that the NSIC reps are the wild cards. Since the NSIC is all too familiar with being bumped in favor of a team with a worse record, I would think they'd be more sympathetic to Pitt St., Central Mo. or Emporia than for NDSU. I'm not sure which two among Pitt St., Emporia and Central Mo. are going to be in, but I think two of them are in and NDSU will be on the outside looking in. Remember also that Pitt St. has a pretty high strength of schedule index and will own a common opponent advantage over NDSU since they beat St. Cloud.

[Bison_Kent]

I agree that Pitt State should be in over NDSU but NDSU should be in over the other four teams. The other four teams had terrible out of conference scheduling. With NDSU, the Bison have wins at home to Tusculum (a 9-2 team), at Montana (a I-AA team), and a home win against the NSIC co-champion Concordia-St. Paul (8-3 team). NDSU and the other four teams from the MIAA all have two conference losses so there is pretty much a wash.

It will be up to the committee to decide if wins over three top teams and a loss to another I-AA team is better then wins over DIII and NAIA and sub-.500 DII teams. I would think they would side with NDSU.

[UND92,96]

I agree that Pitt State should be in over NDSU but NDSU should be in over the other four teams.  The other four teams had terrible out of conference scheduling.  With NDSU, the Bison have wins at home to Tusculum (a 9-2 team), at Montana (a I-AA team), and a home win against the NSIC co-champion Concordia-St. Paul (8-3 team).  NDSU and the other four teams from the MIAA all have two conference losses so there is pretty much a wash. 

It will be up to the committee to decide if wins over three top teams and a loss to another I-AA team is better then wins over DIII and NAIA and sub-.500 DII teams.  I would think they would side with NDSU.

I think what you're disregarding is the fact that while you or I would agree that a win over Montana is far more impressive than a win over Fort Hays St., for example, it is NOT so as strength of schedule is calculated by the NCAA. These are the actual strength of schedule numbers for the four teams who have a legitimate case to be the other two teams in the playoffs:

Pitt St. 10.09

Emporia St. 10.0

NDSU 9.636

Central Mo. 9.18

If s.o.s. is as important as we're lead to believe, NDSU is out because they not only are behind Pitt St. and Emporia is that regard, but obviously they also have a worse overall record. Not to mention the whole political issue with a 3-loss team getting in over a 2-loss team from conferences of comparable strength. I'm not saying it's impossible for NDSU to get in, but they have an awful lot going against them.

[RD17]

I agree that Pitt State should be in over NDSU but NDSU should be in over the other four teams. The other four teams had terrible out of conference scheduling. With NDSU, the Bison have wins at home to Tusculum (a 9-2 team), at Montana (a I-AA team), and a home win against the NSIC co-champion Concordia-St. Paul (8-3 team). NDSU and the other four teams from the MIAA all have two conference losses so there is pretty much a wash.

It will be up to the committee to decide if wins over three top teams and a loss to another I-AA team is better then wins over DIII and NAIA and sub-.500 DII teams. I would think they would side with NDSU.

Disagree. Here's who I think will be in:

1 UND

2 Winona

3/4 Pitt St. Emporia

Here's all the criteria:

1) SSI

PSU 10.09

Emporia 10

NDSU 9.64

2) W-L record

Overall

PSU, Emporia 9-2

NDSU 8-3

Division II W-L

PSU, Emporia 9-2

NDSU 7-2

Division II in region W-L

PSU 9-2

Emporia 7-2

NDSU 6-2

3) Record against ranked teams (last regional ranking)

PSU, Emporia, NDSU 2-2

Note: CSP will be out of the last top 10, NWMSU in.

4) Results against non D2

PSU, Emporia 0-0

NDSU 1-1

5) Head to head

none

6) Results against common opponents

PSU beat St. Cloud, NDSU lost

7) Division II W-L record against non-conference regional opponents

PSU 2-0

Emporia 0-0

NDSU 1-0

8) Eligibility of athletes

no issues

The only advantage I see for NDSU over either of the other 2 teams is criteria 7. Emporia and PSU will get the nod.

[Bison_Kent]

UND92,96;

I would agree with you if a committee didn't meet and the only thing that playoff teams were decided by a point system (which is based on strength of schedule--the way that DII is set up). However, there is a committee of two members each from the three conferences that make their final decision. I would think the two members of the NSIC would choose NDSU after the Bison beat one of their co-champions. The MIAA members (one might have to sit out due to their team being considered) and the NCC member (minus NDSU's Gene Taylor since NDSU is envolved) would pick NDSU. With that, I would think that NDSU would have the committee's vote 3 to 1.

Watch ESPN News tomorrow at noon to see the pairings. I know that I will skip the NFL to see what the committee thinks.

[Hansel]

(minus NDSU's Gene Taylor since NDSU is envolved) .

Taylor said on the radio if NDSU is involved in a vote, He will step out and Mike Marcil (NCC commissioner) would take his place I am assuming something similar would happen with the MIAA schools, I think NDSU's chances are 50-50 at best, at least this should keep the interest up another day

[UND92,96]

UND92,96;

I would agree with you if a committee didn't meet and the only thing that playoff teams were decided by a point system (which is based on strength of schedule--the way that DII is set up).  However, there is a committee of two members each from the three conferences that make their final decision.  I would think the two members of the NSIC would choose NDSU after the Bison beat one of their co-champions.  The MIAA members (one might have to sit out due to their team being considered) and the NCC member (minus NDSU's Gene Taylor since NDSU is envolved) would pick NDSU.  With that, I would think that NDSU would have the committee's vote 3 to 1. 

Watch ESPN News tomorrow at noon to see the pairings.  I know that I will skip the NFL to see what the committee thinks.

Don't forget about the national committee, which has veto power over the regional committees. The midwest rep on the committee is from Northwest Missouri State. If you haven't read the latest south region column at d2football.com regarding what the national committee can do, you should read it.

Also, there will still be six voting members on the committee. When somebody has a conflict, there's a replacement. For the NCC, Mike Marcil will replace Taylor.

[Bison_Kent]

I would think UND would want NDSU in the playoffs. I know as an NCC fan, I would rather have two NCC teams rather then two MIAA teams.

I have read that column as I am a frequent looker at the columns since I am one of the writers (for the West Region). Strength of scheduling has worked in the West. Tarleton State is going to get the node over Chadron State even though Chadron has a better record. Tarleton is in a similar situation as NDSU. Tarleton is 8-3 (as is NDSU) and Chadron is 9-2. Sound familar. Tarleton scheduled a road game at I-AA Sam Houston State and won. Again, sound familar. For some reason they are ranked higher then Chadron. The reason being that they scheduled better in the non-conference play.

[UND92,96]

I would think UND would want NDSU in the playoffs.  I know as an NCC fan, I would rather have two NCC teams rather then two MIAA teams. 

I have read that column as I am a frequent looker at the columns since I am one of the writers (for the West Region).  Strength of scheduling has worked in the West.  Tarleton State is going to get the node over Chadron State even though Chadron has a better record.  Tarleton is in a similar situation as NDSU.  Tarleton is 8-3 (as is NDSU) and Chadron is 9-2.  Sound familar.  Tarleton scheduled a road game at I-AA Sam Houston State and won.  Again, sound familar.  For some reason they are ranked higher then Chadron.  The reason being that they scheduled better in the non-conference play.

While I don't agree with how the NCAA has chosen to calculate strength of schedule, I don't see how a committee can possibly choose to disregard it and award more credit for playing I-AA teams than what the rules state. Looking at the criteria objectively, using strength of schedule as that term is defined, NDSU is not going to make it. If they do, then Taylor is one hell of a lobbyist since nearly everybody, myself included, assumed NDSU was out after the St. Cloud loss.

[Bisonfan1234]

Our best shot was if Winona lost then we could say they were 3rd place in the NISC and on a common opponent we blew them out of the water....but they won and now they're going to be #2 seed.

[Hansel]

1) SSI

PSU 10.09

Emporia 10

NDSU 9.64

From the NCAA rule book,

http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/foot...d2_football.pdf

SSI is based on DII records only unless, unless there is a tiebreaker and secondary criteria need to be considered

Teams will be selected based on a complete review of the following

criteria:

1. Strength of Schedule

[UND92,96]

From the NCAA rule book,

http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/foot...d2_football.pdf

SSI is based on DII records only unless, unless there is a tiebreaker and secondary criteria need to be considered

Teams will be selected based on a complete review of the following

criteria:

1. Strength of Schedule

• Strength-of-schedule index (SSI) - Division II only

2. Won-Loss Record

• Overall won-loss record

• Division II overall won-loss record

• Division II in-region won-loss record

3. Record against ranked teams, based on the last regional ranking

4. Results against non-Division II teams

5. Head-to-head competition

6. Results against common opponents

7. Division II won-loss record against non-conference regional opponents

8. Eligibility and availability of student-athletes.

Using DII only,

SSI after today's games would be

NDSU 10.22

PSU 10.09

Emporia 9.909

CMSU 9.9

If I read the rulebook correctly, NDSU may have a shot, then again if SU would have taken care of business versus St. Cloud, they wouldn't have to worry about numbers.

I would acknowledge that your interpretation is not unreasonable considering the language used. However, a few things make me think that it is the overall strength of schedule index (all games included) that is used. First, Gene Taylor acknowledged on the radio last week that even if Winona would have lost today, they still would have had a strength of schedule advantage over NDSU. However, had Winona lost today, their s.o.s. would have been 10.0, which is of course lower than NDSU's division II-only strength of schedule. In all the interviews I've heard with him in the past few weeks, it's never been discussed that there are two different strengths of schedule--one including only division II games and one including all games. If there were a division II-only s.o.s., one would assume that he would have been emphasizing that as a potential NDSU advantage since it would do away with the relatively low values given for the Montana win and the UC-Davis loss.

Also, on the UND hockey post-game show Roger Thomas was interviewed by Scott Hennen. RT was on the committee for several years and knows how the process works. He specifically mentioned how I-AA games aren't particularly helpful as the NCAA wants to provide an incentive for dII teams to play dII opponents. It wouldn't be much of a disincentive if non-dII games were only going to affect the strength of schedule index in a tie-breaker situation. I imagine Taylor will shed some light on this topic one way or the other in the next day or so.

[Hansel]

UND92_96, I agree that overall SSI is probably used, but from the manual it is not clear. I remember Taylor talking about how if Fort Hays lost, (which they didn't) it could help NDSU, and while I was crunching overall SSI's earlier, NDSU would have had a higher SSI than Emporia (who played Fort Hays earlier) if Forth Hays would have lost. Including all games CMSU SSI would drop to 9.18 with their win over an NAIA school (worth only 2 points), if SSI is followed as closely as it appears it would difficult to justify a playoff birth for CMSU even after beating Emproia. An interesting note is that if Montana and Davis were D2 teams with the same record they have now, NDSU SSI would be either 10 or 10.22 depending on the result of the UC-Davis game next week. I realize these are the rules that are in place for determining playoff teams. However, I hope they do some make some changes which would decrease the penalty for playing quality I-AA teams, allowing UND to play NDSU for a couple of more years without severely hurting the Sioux's playoff chances.

[RD17]

After looking at the numbers and schedules, what ultimately is going to kill NDSU's chances for the playoffs is NWMSU beating PSU. Here's why if PSU would have won NDSU would have had a much better chance:

1) NWMSU would be 7-4 overall instead of 8-3. Emporia's loss to NW would only have been worth 4 points instead of the 7 it's worth now. Emporia would have had a 9.72 SSI vs 9.64 for NDSU making that very close.

2) Because of their win, NW will be in the last regional poll making both NDSU and Emporia 2-2 against ranked teams. You can see how a NW loss would have given the advantage here to NDSU.

3) If PSU would have finished 10-1 and won the MIAA outright, it becomes easy to justify them getting in over Emporia, and choosing a team from a different conference. As it stands now, with both teams losing to the same caliber of team, finishing with the same record, and Emporia owning a win over Pitt, you can't justify dropping Emporia from 2nd to out of the playoffs, while Pitt still gets in. Also figuring into this thinking is that it makes more sense to take co- champions from one league over a 2nd place team in another.

[Smoggy]

After looking at the numbers and schedules, what ultimately is going to kill NDSU's chances for the playoffs is NWMSU beating PSU. Here's why if PSU would have won NDSU would have had a much better chance:

.

What killed NDSU is losing two games to D2 and one to D1AA.

[bisonguy]

Too bad the committee doesn't look at statements. I think NDSU made a statement by beating up the NSIC co-champ (who actually beat Winona).

I heard the CMSU SID on the radio state that at least three MIAA teams should be in the playoffs. He also stated the NC will probably be from the MIAA. He sure is befitting of his school's mascot

[SiouxMeNow]

Here's my prediction..(take it to the bank BISONMAV)

#1 - UND

#2 - Winona - OKAY!! I agree - an NSIC team HOSTING??? They're a victim of LUCKY circumstance (IE the Missouri schools losing...guess we'll see about the "quality" of the Northern Sun...if they host they can't bitch about losing...)

#3 - Central Missouri - 6 minus 4 equals 3....when #2 loses...

#4 - Emporia - you can't take only one team from a five-way tie for the conference title..no matter how "mediocre" you think the conferece is...They've proven themselves in the past and taking just 1 of 5 teams IS an injustice...like it or not...

#5 - NDSU - outside looking in...AGAIN...You got a break staying at #5 after your loss to SCSU....in my opinion...you were just being set up to keep you hopes up when really you could have been making vacation plans two weeks ago. PS - I thought the whole purpose of moving up to I-AA was because DII wasn't worth a crap anymore...why are you so freaked out about missing the playoffs? You're BIG TIME NOW....(or at least 4 or more years from now!)