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Thought I would resurrect this thread. Here's what the link referenced in the first post had to say about UND's RPI heading into the regular season's last three weeks [edited just a touch for the table headings]: -------------------------- Assuming UND's three remaining opponents perfectly maintain their current rankings (minor deviations will have insignificant impacts on UND's RPI), UND's opponents' win percentage will fall from .5742 to .5635 and it's opponents' opponents' win percentage will fall from .5251 to .5224. UND's control over its destiny is its win percentage, which will be the primary driver of its RPI, as the following table elucidates (Additional Wins, Final Win%, Approximate Final RPI): 1 .4861 .5339 2 .5139 .5408 3 .5417 .5478 4 .5694 .5547 5 .5972 .5617 6 .6250 .5686 --------------------------- As predicted (simple math), UND's winning percentage after four wins (3-1-2 = 4 wins) is .5694. UND's RPI is currently .5535, compared to the prediction of .5547. Pretty darn close for something that is definitely not simple math. ================ I just know enough to ask questions, but it seems to me that most of the PWR comparisons above UND, the very top teams, are out of reach. It would seem that, with positive results on the ice, comparisons with the following are all flippable in UND's favor: Wisconsin OSU Harvard I think the highest UND could finish in the PWR is 7th, barring a real run through the Final Five that might challenge a few of the comparisons that seem far out of reach now. In the rearview mirror, nearby comparisons with the following seem pretty safe: Dartmouth Northern Michigan Maine Colgate Unfortunately, the list of PWR comparisons that could be in danger is long: UNH Lowell Vermont Michigan State UMD Few things about the PWR can be said with certainty, and I haven't crunched the numbers, but I get these impressions from looking at the PWR comparisons: 1. If UND advances past UMD this weekend, they will probably qualify for the NCAA tournament. 2. If UND loses to UMD this weekend, I do not think they are necessarily doomed to exclusion from the NCAAs. However, I think their spot would be very precarious, and they would be at the mercy of a bunch of other factors. It looks like the UNH, Vermont and UMD comparisons would probably flip with a series loss this weekend. 3. UMD is win or golf. It's so hard to tell with all the factors that go into play, but I think UND is where it was three weeks ago, still needing to win on the ice.

Just for fun, check out this picture of the high-stick no-goal. http://pix.procolor.com/jostens/gallery/87/0550_G

Beautiful job of counter-punching by AHA tonight. They jumped on turnovers and got odd-man rushes, and converted a lot of them. Moorhead had plenty of chances, but couldn't get them into the net. That waved-off goal will enter into the Moorhead folklore as one more bad break along the way to not winning a title. There's no question it was a terrible call, but you have to fight through bad breaks. I think Duluth East ultimately cost Moorhead the title, as their pathetic effort last night was probably responsible for Moorhead sleep-walking through the first half of this game. They must have thought they were a little greater than they are after dominating on Friday.

The big difference for Moorhead tonight, to me, is that I have to ask this question: Where are Lee and Ammerman? Very quiet tonight.

Green Bay got shellacked (sp) 9-1 last night. Miller didn't play because of this, from a GB paper: -------------------------- Forward Brad Miller is out for the rest of the season with a torn rotator cuff. Miller is second on the team with 13 goals and was on the Gamblers

Yes, watched it here. Wonderful hockey. They make enough mistakes to generate good chances, which makes it great to watch. No controversial "no goals". The only controversy is perhaps calling a penalty in the second OT after letting everything go for a long time. These teams were very even, and would probably split if they played ten games. Oshie's hit in the defensive zone in the third was a beauty, and shouldn't have been called elbowing. He's a real athlete, strong, good hands, nice agility. I thought he tried to do too much at times, but I guess that is what you do when you are "the man" on a team. UND could perhaps use a forward on this year's team that tries to put the team on his shoulders.

Oshie used his man on the face-off, went through him with the puck, and slid it over to the open man for the winner in 2OT, the longest championship game in tourney history. 4-3 Warroad.

Unbelievable saves on both ends seconds apart. One of the best games in a long, long time.

Great hockey game. A few little things: After two periods, shots were 20-9 TG. I thought it didn't reflect the game very well because to that point Warroad had kept TG from the dangerous areas pretty well, and had seemed to have their chances too. Then they showed scoring chances to that point, and they were Warroad 10-7. With two minutes and change left in regulation, Warroad called timeout, put Marvin up with the Oshie line, and then I don't think they changed lines until time expired. Talk about not going with short shifts. Likewise, I'll bet the Oshie line played at least 5 of the 8 OT minutes. They'll either get the game-winner or the minus on the losing goal because they'll be at the end of a long shift. I wasn't sure what to think of Oshie after the first game against Albert Lea, because he looked a little sluggish to me. I thought he looked much better against STA, and he has been a warrior (sorry) today. Is a shooter and a passer, and has been physically very tough to handle. Tries to dangle too much, but that probably happens when you are so successful at it. I'm sure a little adveristy in the juniors or college will have him going for the safer play a little more often. I'm pretty excited to see how he does in college. Hardwick also looks much better than last year. I think both he and Oimb will be Division 1 players somewhere.

Warroad 1-0 after 1 against STA. Goal came after a double dangle (how's she goin, how's she goin) by Hardwick at the point. Really sweet move. Warroad looks better to me than they did Wednesday, Oshie included. Not much for results yet, but a pretty dominant first period, especially defensively. Actually, that's what impressed me so much about Moorhead yesterday. Century was supposed to have some offensive flash, but Moorhead hardly gave them a sniff of a scoring chance.

GE and sagard, Nice of you guys to come over here and compliment Hakstol's sunnies on the day Lucia pulls the big musky into the boat. Congrats and I'm not feeling too bad about the next couple of years either. I'll be hoping the demonstrated ability of certain freshmen defensemen to thrive in the WCHA is a repeatable event.

We'll have to see how the 16-year olds (!) develop before we can get a read on Kessel and Toews, but Kessel seems ahead right now (I've never seen Toews; just on reputation). But if they end up close, then it'll be Parise/Vanek III, because Zajac/Chucko is II.

Everyone's entitled to their opinion, but I just can't see how you can downplay PK's WJC experience. He didn't ONLY score against Sweden, and of course players will put up better numbers against the lesser opponents. The fact is that he outscored almost all of his teammates, most of whom were two years older and are current college standouts. I'm sure he will have his trying moments, and someone will probably catch him with his head down, but most of the attempted big hits are going to catch air. The big programs get great players, and MN is getting at least their fair share of them right now. He's not less great because he chose MN. Fortunately the Sioux are getting their share too. So bring on the next few years.

I could be wrong on this one, but I think Kessel has the best chance of having a Kariya-like freshman impact on NCAA hockey of anyone in the last decade. Not Kariya points, as they are harder to come by these days, but that kind of domination. He'll have to adjust to having less time and space than he is used to, especially on regulation rinks. Also, for those who note his production against college teams this year, I will just say that playing in exhibitions, with backups in the lineup and an incomplete effort by college teams, will be different from playing against men determined to prevent goals, with all the sticks and elbows that will bring. From a UND perspective, the timing could be better, as I wouldn't mind having Greene and Jones out to combat the boy. His play in the WJC has me dreading the prospect of Kessel flying up the ice on a big rink. If anyone can put the extra room to use, it will be him. Here's the good part: whether he goes to Wisconsin or Minnesota, I don't see UND, CC, Denver or anyone else in the league giving him and his team a free pass. (BTW, the adjustment to sticks and elbows that the boy will face will also be an issue for a young player like Toews.)

Woog does have his picking points about UND (the assist thing, etc.), but do people only hear the bad things he says? In watching the replay of last year's Final Five title game recently, he was complimentary and respectful of UND's team, and Parise and Bochenski in particular. This is just my opinion, but his glasses are not nearly so darkly tinted, during a broadcast, as the glasses of the typical SS or POI/GPL denizen. On topic, I could totally understand last Summer that Bochenski thought it might be time to take the next step in his career. With a year in the USHL after HS, he was four years out of school. Contributing three years to UND's cause seemed fair to me, and he was physically mature. In that bigger perspective, it is the departure of Parise, only two years out of HS and not yet physcially mature, that is more surprising. But it's all in the past now anyway. I'm much more interested in watching future Sioux in the MN state HS tourney this week.

Vandevelde - Moorhead (UND) Becker - Moorhead (Air Force) Connelly - Jefferson (CC) Niskanen - Virginia (UMD) Hummel - AHA (SCSU) I might have missed some. There will probably be another 20 or so eventual Division 1 players playing this week. It'll be great fun to watch.

Thanks for starting this thread. Absolute must-see TV this week. The only times I've seen Lee, Vandevelde and Oshie play were during the state tournament last year, so it should be interesting to see their progression this year. I suppose the Holy Angels/Jefferson winner will be expected to play for the championship, and a potential WBL/Moorhead semifinal Friday would be one for the ages.

While I didn't hear it, they were obviously just joking around.

Lines without Murray. This is my opinion on it: Zajac, Stafford, Spirko: Keep the first line together McMahon, Prpich, Fylling: Not the "second" line, but reunite this checking line and put them out, along with Greene and Jones, against Earl's line, as he seems to do a ton of damage against the Sioux. Show them tape of them shutting down Vanek, Koalska and Riddle. Genoway, Porter, ??( Massen?) Canady, Fabian, Bina: They've had some chemistry in the second half. Let them give it a shot. Also gets Radke back in at defense. Time to just give it a shot.

An old guy: Do you like Lynyrd Skynyrd? Fedorov: I've heard of him. Whipper-snapper.

I wasn't entirely clear, but I was trying to explain my own disappointment, which results from my own expectations. I set my own expectations. I frequently set 'em wrong. Thank goodness I was wrong in 2000, because I thought UND was going to suffer through a painful rebuilding year.

MafiaMan, I mostly agree with your sentiment, with a few reservations. I can accept a tough season, but it's easier to do when you can see it coming. For instance, I was fine with what occurred in 2001-2002. It wasn't fun, but you could imagine the beatings those kids took being repaid with interest a few years down the road. I think the problem many have with THIS tough season is that it was harder to see coming. Of course the early departers were key players, but I thought they were bringing enough back, and adding enough, to still be a Top 10 -type team. I was wrong. The other reason it is tough to take is that I personally thought #8 was coming last year or this year. Last year was a near miss, and this year's looking pretty unlikely as well. Additionally, the next chance at #8 looks like it may be a few years away, as the odds of all the kids coming in next year and winning a lot don't seem good. A lot of lower teams in the league are getting better, and Wisconsin and MN look like they will be beasts next year. I don't imagine CC and Denver will slip much either. That's why this year seemed important to me.

Wow. Guess who didn't have a good game on Saturday? Here are the numbers of the Sioux players on the ice for the UAA goals, all even strength (but the last was an empty-netter): 6, 8 10, 14, 29 6, 8 10, 14, 29 6, 8 10, 14, 29 28, 8 10, 14, 29 8 14, 29, 11, 15, 18 Edit: Didn't quite format like I wanted, and I put it in the wrong thread. I'm playing as well as 6, 8, 10, 14, 29 did.

I turned (hopeful) pessimist Saturday night. This was my thought process: I could forgive the CC series, because by all accounts they played their hearts out and really did deserve about three points. Plus, CC's really good. I could forgive the Denver series, because the Sioux were undermanned, missing two of their best forwards. Plus, Denver's really good. I can't forgive Saturday. Saturday was a prime opportunity, delivered up by the hockey gods, to get a sweep, lock up home ice, get on a roll and win four or five of the last six games. So UND was missing two key forwards against Denver? Guess what? UAA was missing FOUR players Saturday. I don't care how scrappy they are and how much heart they played with. If they are that short, you are either playing against bad players (if UAA is playing everyone), or exhausted players (if UAA shortens the bench). Either way, circumstances required that UND dominate the third period and win going away. They obviously didn't. I guess that made me finally abandon my optimism. I'll still be hopeful, though.

I threw this on USCHO, and thought I would post it here too. Just strictly looking at the facts, it's hard to be an optimist. They can create a new set of facts by going out and winning games, but recent results don't suggest that will happen. ------------------------------ One team's WCHA results since Christmas (with aggregate Goals For and Goals Against): Split with MSUM 6-6 Swept by CC 1-3 Swept by DU 4-8 Split with UAA 8-8 Another team's WCHA results since Christmas: Swept SCSU 10-2 Swept UAA 9-3 Split with MN 6-6 1 Pt. from DU 6-7 Split with CC 6-3 Realistically, only the home ice factor argues for UND to scrap out a split this weekend. Otherwise this one screams for a Badger sweep. UND has proven to be basically equal to teams like UMD, MSUM and UAA, and inferior to top teams like Denver and CC. Wisconsin, on the other hand, has proven to be basically equal to the top teams, and clearly superior to the middle and lower teams that UND has struggled with. This seems extremely disrespectful to UAA, but seriously only about four or five of the UAA players that played last Saturday would get even close to Wisconsin's roster, and that group from UAA took it to UND in Saturday's third period. We'll see if UND has any fight left in them this year.