stickboy1956
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Posts posted by stickboy1956
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i havent heard anything that suggests jones will be out for the playoff run as a whole so lets hope hes back this week and if not then the cc series for sure. if hes out this weekend then fienhage gets a great chance at some big time games. it is a hell of a position to grasp at this level, no doubt about it. you are correct, a sweep is a must.
Also lets remember Jones has been 5/6 D in the rotation since Jan. The pressure point isn't Fienhage being our #6 D, its moving Jones/Blood into the 3/4 slot that's more precarious.
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Moy can pontificate about it all he wants but it doesn't change the fact that there is a lot of hockey left to be
played, I would be willing to be that a number of those teams wont be in the final brackets.
To be fair to Jason, his bit is to predict the bracket if the season ended today, not project the final bracket in March.
While the teams will change, it is still interesting to look at factors like host teams placed in their own region (currently Yale, NH, UMTC) and what that does to the brackets.
Over the last few years, his final Bracketology has been pretty accurate.
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I do feel that the PWR must be revamped. As I look at Air Force and the EZAC teams with only a handful (or less) games against TUCs. I contend that your TUC record should carry more weight than say COP. I also contend that RPI is not the best measure, as any stat that must be adjjusted to reflect wins against bad teams is ridiculous. Do wins against those same bad teams count in COP? They sure do.
Now some of this is sour grapes from this Sioux fan, who if the season ended today would have to pick Vermont or some other team I really don't care about and invest myself in them for April.
No one wants to play UND right now, but because of three bad losses: Mass, Mich State, and Michigan Tech we are on the outside looking in.
I don't have the time to do this at work today, but I wonder what the PWR would look like if instead of winnning % vs TUCs, you counted wins vs TUCs or a derivative of total wins vs TUCs (say each TUC win is worth .25)...this would favor teams that play a lot of TUCs, and would weigh very heavily towards selection time.
Time to stop pontificating and go back to work.
http://www.uscho.com/blogs/uscho/bracketology
Good analysis by UCHO regarding the RPI formula and how tweaking it effects this year's PWR.
The bottom line is that the PWR doesn't change much even if you tweak the RPI formula.
We are outside looking in right now because we lost 2 neutral site games to bad teams and lost to the 9th place team in our league at home.
Flip those games, and flip another bad loss (Wisco or Duluth) from earlier this year and we are 20-7-3 and playing for a number 1 seed, which the top team in the WCHA should be doing this time of year.
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Given: 1) They had pretty good jump this weekend. 2) They're coming into the soft part of their schedule. 3) Lucia has won two national titles there ... I think the whole sinking ship and poor coaching thing is somewhere between premature and off the mark.
True - they have the talent to turn this around.
Recent history suggests otherwise.
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I don't know about any of this.
If development is an issue at UMN, it is in defense. I just don't see offense as a problem with Lucia's system.
It's like the Gophers are the opposite of the Wild. All the Gophers care about is offense and defense be damned. All the Wild care about is defense and offense be damned.
Heck, even my Red Wings have a bit of that problem this season.
It's not a development/tactics issue, it's a focus/grit/attitude issue.
It seems they never have all their oars rowing together when it counts.
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we're at .625 they both are at .636, so they will not put us in as the autobid.
You are correct, sir - it still shows how close we are and also how we cannot afford an average performance down the stretch.
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we are now tied for 16th in the pwr with bc but lose the tiebreaker so we are in 17th, falling 3 spots while not playing this weekend..
Someone else do the math but isn't our win % in the WCHA better than DU/Wisco?
If so, UCHO will put us in the tournament as a projected auto-bid when they do this week's PWR Predictions.
Amazing - the WCHA's best team (win %) is ranked 17 in RPI/PWR.
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we are now tied for 16th in the pwr with bc but lose the tiebreaker so we are in 17th, falling 3 spots while not playing this weekend..
7 teams are .005 apart in RPI (UMD, OSU, NH, UMTC, Wisco, BC, UND) 11-17.
IMO we need 6-2 + 2-0 + 1-1 to get in for sure - anything less is iffy.
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olsen is a longshot. i wish we could get him. we have 7 D for next year already. maybe push gleason back a year if we can convince him but from what i heard its a longshot
My scout says he will go the college route - doesn't know which one though.
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Long time coach Mike Guentzel leaves and Garth Snow made "off the wall comments".... Just doesn't seem to be all smiles and kittens in
Maroon and Gold land.
After the start they had, I thought this was their (UMTC) season for "no drama." They have had their share recently (Tyler Hirsch, Okposo, Frazee, Blarneys, EJohnson/Espn.com).
It seems that any kind of adversity for this team is overdramatized/exaggerated, which seems to get them off their game.
One team tends to come apart down the stretch, one team comes together.
Coaching, anyone???
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I agree with that statement. I would think that makes sense as well. I was wondering if its stated in the rules anywhere that this is a fact? If not, I'm wondering why its not in the comparison.
Here's a site that lists this exeption for determining the TUC comparison.
http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2009
Here's a link to this site's do it yourself pwr
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I noticed something while looking at the pairwise tonight. I wondered why our record against TUCs (teams under consideration) were different for different comparisons. I figured out that they throw out the games between the two teams in each individual comparison. I have not found that rule stated anywhere for sure?
I know beating the other team helps us in general (because we get head to head points in the comparison), but it seems like that hurts us in the TUC comparison. If you look at it right now, we would have one more pairwise point because we would win the comparison with the goophs if this rule was not true (we would have a better TUC record which would switch the comparison).
Anybody have any info on this part of the TUC part of the comparison?
It would make sense not to count the head to head meetings twice in a comparison - that's why they throw our head to head meetings when deciding the TUC comparison.
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3 0 Wisconsin end of 2..well almost
Any doubt which team gets the first penalty of the 3rd period?
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Yep, can't argue with that logic.
I don't find it surprising that the elite teams are also the higher penalized teams. After all, everyone gets pumped up to play a Minnesota or, dare I say, North Dakota.
That winds up with many teams considering us their #1 rival (I think Mankato State considers that, while we don't reciprocate the respect). During these high emotion games stuff happens. And despite what the teacher said, it only takes one to create a fight.
But what's happening with the Minnesota team is unprecedented. They've definitely got major problems this year and blaming the other teams makes Donna look like a fool.
Elite teams are usually ahead of their competition and WCHA officials feel the need to call more penalties on the team that's winning (5 in row on us v. Denver as an example).
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INCH 4x4
February 4, 2009
The INCH 4x4 represents how we think the NCAA Tournament field
will look WHEN THE BRACKET IS ANNOUNCED Sunday, March 22
http://www.insidecollegehockey.com/5Polls/0809/44_0719.htm
They have us a 3 seed.
Note: we will avoid having to face the Gophs in Minneapolis if we land in the same seeding band - Inch has both projected as #3 seeds.
Personally, I always love ending their season
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I saw that too. That should hopefully be a good game to watch.
Go Bulldogs!!!
A UMD sweep helps us in the league standings but a split probably would help us more in the PWR.
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yes we will and a goalie that can play as well a handful of games if need be. will be nice to have
My scout predicts he will play in more than a handfull of games next year - he's going to push BE for playing time next year.
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this weekend will be a very interesting weekend for us in the pwr and we don't even play. I know Jim had this in his blog but games of interest for us are:
du/umd- a denver sweep helps us in the pwr but but duluth wins will help us in the wcha race.
notre dame/ohio state- a notre dame sweep will flip our comparison with osu which we are now losing.
bc/umass-a umass win keeps this comparison in our win column, however a bc win flips it to bc
yale vs harvard/dartmouth-2 yale losses would flip this comparison
princeton vs colgate/cornell-as soon as we catch princeton in rpi in all liklihood we flip this comparison. that being said a cornell win helps us in two ways(rpi and cop).
minnesota/wisconsin-root for a split as this helps us in both the pwr and wcha race.
maine/nh-a maine sweep would probably flip the nh comparison.
Are you sure a bc win flips this comp?
We currently lead BC in RPI and TUC, but we are tied in COP. I know a BC win gives them the COP but their RPI would need to move past our's to flip this comparison. Would that happen with a BC win over Mass?
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We want a BU over BC beanpot title. Go BU today, Go BC tonight. Go terriers on the 9th. A BU win over BC flips the PWR vs BC.
BC plays UMass Friday - this game effects the COP vs. BC. However, a UMass win could jump them to a TUC, which would give us 1 more TUC loss.
I say, Go UMass!!!
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Tomorrow is a must game??
Our margin for error (in PWR) is slipping away.
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I don't think either team has really carried the play. SCSU has taken advantage of its chances, and BE maybe wishes he had the last 2. Offensively, the Sioux have tried to pound it on net, looking for deflections and rebounds, but nothing has bounced their way. At the end of the second, a puck finally bounced to Kozek's feet but he was looking the other way.
I think SC has had more quality scoring chances.
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Looks like October.
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I just got back from watching the Sioux practice at the NHC in St. Cloud. Everyone looked sharp and Kozak was full speed. They ended practice with a shoot out competition. Everyone who scored went to one side of the ice and those that missed went towards the bench. Last two still scoring were Toews and Zajac. Even the coaches get to play. After it was all done they all dog piled the two goalies and pretended to beat them up. Pretty funny.
Good to see Kozak is full strength. We are better when he is in the lineup. It made a difference last Sat.
Prospective Recruits
in Men's Hockey
Posted
We hosted the NCAA in 83. Wisconsin upset us in the WCHA finals in GF. Back then the series were 2 game/total goal series and the second game went to 3 ot before Wisconsin beat us and went on to beat Providence and Harvard in the F4